Only a few days away!  Time to get excited for the upcoming season.  To build further anticipation for next weekend and also to prepare everyone for watching next weekend’s games, I’ve decided to put together a viewer’s guide for all of the first week televised game.  This is kind of a take-off on a column the Charlotte Observer ran every weekend about 10 years ago where they rated the quality of each locally televisied game.  Don’t know why they stopped the column, but here’s my version.  Please note that depending on your cable provider you get more or less games then the ones rated below

Best game not on television: Troy at Bowling Green- First the bad news… this quality interconference game between two perennial powerhouses will not be televised nationally.  It’s a real shame no one picked this game up, especially since it’s on a Thursday night.  ESPNU really should be showing this instead of the Ball State/North Texas game you see below

Thursday Games:

South Carolina at NC State: Grade B+ (7:00, ESPN)- Could be a great game to kickoff the season.  Let’s just hope its higher quality than last year’s ugly, ugly defensive struggle in Columbia.  The unpredictability factor is high here, as both teams have been ranked all over the place in various preaseason polls.

North Texas at Ball State: Grade C- (7:30, ESPNU)- Really wanted to give this game a failing grade, but the only thing mildly intriguing here is to see if North Texas is at all improved, like many are predicting.  Plus there have been very few opportunities to see Todd Dodge’s failed Mean Green experiment.  Still though, you’re an idiot if you watch more than 10 minutes of this game given the fact that ESPN has a superb 7:00 game and 10:15 game.

Eastern Kentucky at Indiana: Grade F (8:00, Big Ten Network)- This game should be graded worse than Derrick Rose’s real SAT score.  It’s very difficult to find any half-way intriguing storyline coming out of this matchup.  Maybe Indiana’s only chance at a victory this year?

Oregon at Boise State: Grade A+ (10:15, ESPN)- This the game of the week, without a doubt.  Some will argue for the Bama/VT matchup, but that game won’t come anywhere close to determining a BCS spot like this will.  If Boise wins, then I’d say they have an 80% change of going to their 2nd BCS bowl.  If they lose, then there is an 80% chance that there will not be a mid-major team in this BCS this years.  Can’t think of a season opener in this past with these kind of implications.

Friday Games:

Tulsa at Tulane: Grade C (8:00, ESPN)- Let me just say this is not worth cancelling any Friday night plans to watch this game.  If you are border however, it might be worth at least seeing if Toledo is finally going to make some progress with the Wave.

Saturday Early Afternoon Games:

Navy at Ohio State: Grade A- (12:00, ESPN)- I’ve been preaching the potential for a scare in this game for several months now.  At the very least, we’ll be able to find out if Pryor’s arm has improved at all, and whether or not the Buckeyes appear to have any chance of beating the Men of Troy in week 2.

Kentucky at Miami-OH: Grade C+ (12:00, ESPN U)- I’m probably grading this game a little higher than I should only because I’m a Cats fan, and I’m interested to see how we’ll start this season.  Overall, there’s not much here to get excited about.

Akron at Penn State: Grade D+ (12:00, Big Ten Network)-  When a network only covers one conference and the teams in that conference refuse to play many legit non-conference games, then your early season programming is going to be pretty weak.  No exception here. 

Minnesota at Syracuse: Grade A (12:00, ESPN 2)- This game would be C grade if it wasn’t for one Syracuse graduate student named Greg Paulus.  Watching him struggle in college basketball last year was thorougly enjoyable.  Watching him getting sacked and beat up all season in football will elicit indescribable joy.

Saturday Late Afternoon Games:

Baylor at Wake Forest: Grade B+  (3:30, ABC)- Any game that I’m actually attending will get a higher grade than it should.  Still though the unpredictability factor is off the charts in this matchup.  Will Baylor have the goods to actually bowl this year?  How will the new Wake defense handle the most athletic QB in college football?  Lots of questions will be answered in this one.

Georgia at Oklahoma State: Grade A- (3:30, ESPN 2)- The Cowboys march to a national title begins with a major home challenge against a Georgia team that everyone is curious about.  Can they reload after losing Stafford and Moreno?  Anything could happen here.  Also, in a rare Big 12/SEC regular season matchup, conference bragging rights will be on the line. 

Nevada at Notre Dame: Grade B (3:30, NBC)- Watch out Irish, this could be a scare.  Notre Dame almost lost to SDSU to start the season last year, and this game will be much more difficult.  The Wolfpack will put up some points, but the defense will have to step it up to keep them in this game.

Jackson State at Mississippi State: Grade D (3:30, ESPNU)- First game for MSU with a new coach.  That’s about all to say about this one.  Could the U really not find any better games to show this week?

Missouri at Illinois: Grade B (3:40, ESPN)- This annual first weekend matchup always seems to produce lots of fireworks.  Tigers’ will be debuting a lot of new offensive personnel, so we’ll see what they got against an improved Illini team that I’m predicting to shock the world

Saturday Early Evening Games

LA Tech at Auburn: Grade B- (7:00, ESPNU)- The best chance you’ll ever see for a WAC team to beat an SEC team on the road.  I think this game will be closer than the experts’ predictions.

BYU vs. Oklahoma: Grade B (7:00, ESPN)- Reminds me of Oklahoma’s 2005 opener where they lost a shocker to TCU.  The Sooners that year were a preseason national title contender, just like they are this year, and TCU was an underrated MWC team, just like the Cougars here.  I’m not necessarily predicting an upset; in fact, this could be a blowout.  However, there is a chance BYU keeps it close for a while.

Northern Illinois at Wisconsin: Grade D (7:00, Big Ten Network)- See comment above about Penn State/Akron game.  This game could be surprisingly close, but does anyone really care?

Charleston Southern at Florida: Grade C (7:00, Fox Sports Network)- If CSU wins this game, it will be the most miraculous event since Jesus’ resurrection.  More likely, however, is that this ends up as one of the biggest blowouts of all-time, depending on how cruel Meyer wants to be.

Northern Colorado at Kansas: Grade D- (7:00, Fox College Sports)- Avoids the F grade only becaue I’m interested to see how my # 3 surprise team of the year starts the season.

Alabama at Virginia Tech: Grade A (8:00, ABC)- Last year’s Atlanta opening weekend ACC/SEC showdown set the stage for Bama’s surpise BCS run, and Clemson’s disappointing demise.  This year should be no different, as the winner should be considered a legit national title contender.

Saturday Late Night Games:

Buffalo at UTEP: Grade B+ (9:00, CBS College Sports)- Maybe the most underrated game of the week.  I haven’t seen a single person talk about this one, but this is a solid non-conference matchup between two teams that should contend for their respective conference crowns.

Maryland at California: Grade C+ (10:00, ESPN 2)- Last year the Terps shocked the Bears at home.  If they were to beat them again, it would be one of the upsets of the year in sports.  However, you should definitely expect the Bears to cruise through this one.

LSU at Washington: Grade C+ (10:00, ESPN)- I’m surprised to see that the line is only 17 points, as I think this should be one of the bigger non-conference road beatdowns you’ll ever see between two BCS conference teams.   However, it will interesting to see LSU’s questionable quarterback play in action.

Sunday Games:

Ole Miss at Memphis: Grade B- (3:30, ESPN)- Snead’s dark horse heisman run kicks off with a game in which he should put up big numbers. 

Colorado State at Colorado: Grade B (7:00, FSN)- Colorado has the talent to win this one convincingly, but this early season rivalry game always seems to produce plenty of drama and surprises.

Monday Games:

Cincinnati at Rutgers: Grade A- (4:00, ESPN)- It’s a rare treat to get a BCS conference game on the first weekend between two legit conference title contenders.  In a wide open Big East, this game could end up having huge implications.

Miami-FL at Florida State: Grade A- (8:00)- This game gets a good grade largely for reasons associated with its tradition.  I think the Noles should handle the Canes easily this year (Noles are at home and have more talent), but this game seems to always come down to the wire.

Along the same lines as my weekly picks entry, I’d also like to offer my predictions of a few upsets that could definitely happen in the first week.  These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange. 

Baylor (+1.5) vs. Wake Forest: I hate to pick against my own team, but bringing in a new defense to play against one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the history of college football could be bad news for the Deacs.

Idaho (+3.0) vs. New Mexicho State: This game really could go either way.  It will also be very interesting because it could be both teams only shot at a win all year.

South Carolina (+4.0) vs. NC State: The Gamecocks are one of my surprise teams of the year, so naturally I have to pick them to find away to shut down Russell Wilson and pull off the road upset.

Army (+5.0) vs. Eastern Michigan: After making a few forward strides last year, I expect the Black Knights to continue their ascension back to college football relevancy (slowly but surely at least).  On the other hand, bad returnees plus new coaches/schemes could bring a winless season in Ypsilanti.

Oregon (+5.0) vs. Boise State: I am not one of those people who think Oregon is going to contend for the Pac-10 crown this year.  In fact, I am far from it.  However, this game is being hyped up so much in Boise that it seems like a Bronco letdown might be inevitable.

Virginia Tech (+7.0) vs. Alabama: This is going to be the first time in several years that the ACC will have a legitimate national title contender.  A new quarterback and numerous offseason issues worry me about the Tide.

Buffalo (+7.5) vs. UTEP: Given the Bulls’ late season charge last year and the Miners’ recent struggles, I am surprised to see UTEP listed as over a TD favorite in this game.  The Miners will be much improved this year, but I also expect the Bulls to return to the title game in the MAC.  This could actually be one of the best games of the first week.

Longshot of the Week- Navy (+22.5) vs. Ohio State:  Yes this might be somewhat of a stretch, but I stll think it was one of the dumbest scheduling moves of the year for the Buckeyes to schedule this game as their opener.

I think it is close enough to the start of the season to go ahead and make my first set of picks. Most lines are already up for the opening weekend; including the site I use which is World Sports Exchange (www.wsex.com).  Let me first preface this by saying that I am not advocating sports gambling by writing this column. Game lines can be used for a variety of purposes including non-monetary pools. With that being said, as long as I am games relatively well this year, I will likely keep making these weekly picks. I’m traditionally well over .500 over the course of a given season, with the exception of last year where I couldn’t pick a game to save my life. Again, I make no guarantees on the accuracy of these. They are strictly based on my opinion. Hopefully, we can at least generate some good debate out of it. Please note these lines are based on the spreads at the time I research them; therefore, there is a good chance they will change before game time.

 Now onto the picks. These will be listed based on my confidence level with each, starting from highest to lowest.

Pick # 1: Clemson (-19.5) vs. Middle Tennessee State: I predict this to be a major rebuilding year for the Blue Raiders with the addition of Tony Franklin as offensive coordinator. If the Raiders are patient with him, they will build a solid program, but as we found out at Auburn last year, his offense can yield dismal results if his players aren’t yet comfortable with it. On the other hand, I am picking Clemson to be a surprise winner of the ACC Atlantic this year, and I believe they start the season off right with a 4 TD victory at least.

 Pick # 2: Navy (+22.5) at Ohio State: I’m always a little scared to bet for or against Navy since their success largely depends on how well their opponents can prepare for their offense. And yes the Buckeyes have had the entire season to scout the Midshipmen’s option attack. However, this is a dangerous, stupid game for Ohio State to schedule, which is why I think we could have a scare. Breaking in a somewhat inexperienced defense against a gimmicky offense is never a good idea, especially with Southern Cal, who runs an entirely different scheme, coming into town the following week.

 Pick # 3: Illinois (-6.5) vs. Mizzou: Illinois is my # 1 surprise team of the year, and Missouri, while not on my list of disappointment teams, will be worse than some people are predicting. For it is very difficult to have success with new skill position players in a highly specialized spread attack, like the Tigers. Maybe by the end of the year they will become more fluent, but I expect we’ll see a lot of early season mishaps from Mizzou. The Illini win this one by double digits.

 Pick # 4: Stanford (-16.5) vs. Washington State: This line really puzzles me because last season Wazzou was a 30 or more point underdog to just about everybody. This year I think they will be even worse, so expect a Stanford team, who I am predicting to surprise this season, to blowout the Cougars here.

Pick # 5: Utah (-21.0) vs. Utah State: The Utes won’t be nearly as good as last year, in fact I have predicting them to drop off more than many experts. But Utah State is still Utah State, and with a new coach and new schemes to adjust to, expect the Aggies to get hammered here on the road.

 Pick # 6: Florida State (-5.0) vs. Miami-FL: I think if you take the fact that the Noles are playing at home and are generally picked a lot higher than the Canes in most preseason polls/publications this lines should be close to two TDs. However, this is one of those early season rivalry games where anything can happen and the games often times come right down to the wrie. Still, I don’t see the Noles winning this one by less than a touchdown.

Pick # 7: Texas A & M (-13.5) vs. New Mexico: It’s always good to pick the favorite in a game where the line is just less than a factor of 7. Here the Aggies are at 13.5, and even though I am predicting them to finish in the basement of the Big 12 South this season, they are playing at home game against a Lobos team who I feel will be the worst team in the Mountain West. However, if this line moves up over 14 then I will be a little more reluctant to take A & M here.

Pick # 8: Tulsa (-6.5) vs. Tulane: Another game where a team is favored by just less than a factor of 7, meaning a TD victory for the Golden Hurricane covers. To my surprise, it doesn’t appear Toledo will turn around the Waves’ dismal program anytime soon, and even though Tulsa won’t be as good as last year, they will still be one of the top teams in the C-USA. As a general rule, if one of the top 3 teams in a conference is playing one of the bottom 3 and the line is under 7, then pick the favorite.

Pick # 9: Ole Miss (-16.5) vs. Memphis: Everybody is drinking the Rebel Kool-Aid this season, and I have to admit I’ve had a few sips. I am predicting the Rebels to win the SEC West with one of the most favorable schedules in the history of the conference. Furthermore, Memphis is on my list of disappointment teams this year, so naturally I see the Rebels winning huge here (by over 20 points) even if they are playing on the road.

 Pick # 10: Minnesota (-6.5) vs. Syracuse. The Cuse were actually improved last year, and I think they’ll continue to be under a new coach. However, with the Gophers returning about everybody from a solid bowl squad last year, I can’t figure out why many people are picking this team to be one of the worst in the conference. I think Minnesota starts the year off right with a 2 TD victory in this one

With football season nearly upon us, I thought it would be a good time to reflect on this summer in my sporting life.  It is a summer that I will remember for a long time, whether I want to or not.  Since I’m not a baseball fan, I direct most of my energy as a fan towards golf and tennis during the summers, particularly on the majors.  Wimbledon, the U.S. Open, and British Open are 3  highlights of my sporting year.  Two of these events are held in Great Britain, so obviously that nation becomes the center of my attention during the months of June and July.  And when looking back at this summer, the first thing that comes to my mind is the eerie resemblance everything has been to the experiences of the legendary cinematic character Rocky Balboa.  We all know (or should know) of the journey of Rocky’s fictional boxing career beginning with an unlikely title shot against Apollo Creed in 1976 and ending with a split decision loss to Mason “the Line” Dixon in 2006.  Also, for the record there were only 5 Rocky movies: I-IV and Balboa (Rocky V never happened).  At any rate, the ”Rocky Balboa” analogy is often overused and overstated, but I think given the events of this summer in our Motherland across the sea that such an analogy could never be more true. 

It first started in a non-sporting environment.  Yes, some of you may roll your eyes at the mere mention of this lady’s name but I’m going first talk about the immaculate Susan Boyle story.   I know that her experiences on Britain’s Got Talent and beyond has very little to do with sports, but the Rocky Balboa parallels here are obvious and have been brought up over and over again.  In fact the countless comparisons that have been made between Susan and Rocky serve as the inspriation for this entry.   If you don’t know who Susan Boyle is then just type her name into You Tube and you’ll get a few hundred hits.  To quickly summarize, she was a rather unattractive lady from Scotland who auditioned for Britain’s Got Talent this past spring (the British equivalent of America’s Got Talent) and after being laughed at by the audience for her unpleasant looks and awkward demeanor went onto deliver one of the most awe-inspiring singing performances of all-time.  All of this has been talked and analyzed in-depth, so I’m not going to do another Susan Boyle social critique.  But I feel like the Rocky Balboa parallel here extends beyond the simple “Rags to Riches” underdog motif.  I have yet to see anyone point out the fact that much like Rocky, Susan went the distance but ended up losing.  Just like when Balboa fell to Apollo in the first Rocky, Susan lost to a dance group called Diversity in the final of Britain’s Got Talent in May.  As upset as I was about this first disappointing development of the summer, it gave me comfort that Susan had gone the distance, inspired the world, and was going to go on to have a very lucrative successful career, exactly like Mr. Balboa.

Now on to the real sports and the further advancement of Rocky’s journey through Britain in the summer of 2009.  If Susan Boyle’s triumph is a depiction of the original Rocky, then Andy Murray at Wimbledon has to be analogized to Rockys 2-4.  As I have talked about for years, witnessing a Brit win Wimbledon is one of my life sporting goals (see my first blog entry for the others); therefore Murray’s march to the Wimbledon semifinals was my obsession for the last 2 weeks of June.  Unfortuantely, Murray lost to Roddick, which is the glaring difference between it and Rockys 2-4.  Balboa won the final fight in all 3 of those movies, but even though Murray may have lost at this year’s Wimbeldon, he has still become a great champion just like Balboa.  He has won 13 ATP titles and recently surpassed Rafael Nadal as the # 2 player in the world.  He’s also only 22 years old, so the major championships will inevitably come.  Murray has rapidly ascended to the top of the tennis world just like Balboa did in late 70’s and early 80’s  in the first 3 Rocky sequels.

So if the traditional Rocky story played out with Susan Boyle in Britain in May, and you allow me to analogize Rockys 2-4 to Andy Murray in Britian in June, then there is only one part of this epic left to be told  Without a doubt, the plot of “Rocky Balboa” (the final movie in the series) came alive at the British Open in July.  It pains me to talk about it still.  Along with this year’s Master’s, the 2009 British Open serves as the worst golfing heartbreak of my life.  Tom Watson… he was about to pull off the greatest sports miracle since the Miracle on Ice.  But then he bogeyed the 18th hole and lost representing the most recent disappointment in a devastating 18 month cycle, where every team I like has lost and every team I hate has won.  At any rate, the similarities between Waston in 2009 and Rocky in 2006 are obvious.  Both men were great champions finishing up their careers with one last epic performance.  Both “went the distance” one last time and came up just a little bit short.  And eerily enough, both were 59 years of age.  Tom Watson definitely gave a great portrayal of Balboa in his final night in the ring, but unfortuantely the tone was entirely different.  While Balboa’s split decision loss to Dixon was uplifting and gratifying, Watson’s playoff loss to Cink was gut-wrenching and excruciating.  We should react as the audience did for Rocky and applaud Watson’s past greatness and phenomenal old-age performance.  If the final round did not play out like it did, then we probably would have.  However, Watson seemingly had the tournament won causing us to become  spoiled rotten with grandiose thoughts of witnessing world history. 

So there you have it…  my whimsical retelling of the Rocky fable through Britain’s major sporting events of 2009.  Though these 3 recent events did inject a great deal of sadness into an otherwise amazing summer for me, the Rocky parallels soothe the pain a little bit.  For despite all the ups and downs, when we think about Rocky Balboa it makes us smile, and when I think of Susan Boyle, Andy Murray, and Tom Watson, I  plan to do the same.   Hope you the entry, and I would appreicate your comments.  Also, in case you were wondering where  Rocky V fit into all of this, remeber that it never happened so nothing is to analogize it to.  However, if you do believe in the existence of Rocky V and insist on trying to make it fit into this storyine, then you would need the world’s worst disaster to take place in London.  Something of epic propotions like a terrorist attack or an monsoon.  Only then could we begin to start making Rocky V analogies.

Brett Favre man… you’re becoming Muhammad Ali.  No you were never as good as Ali, but you’re similar in that you have a great legacy that you’re tarnishing with this retirement/return cyclical nonsense.  Go out and coach somewhere if you still want to be on a football field.  You’re just going to become worse and worse year after year until you eventualy get relegated to the CFL.  Granted I like the CFL more than the NFL, but still.  I hate to say that I hope he gets hurt, but he needs something to happen along those lines that can keep him from playing… permanently

When all the smoke is cleared, here’s how I see the final rankings for the 2009 season. For full analysis of each team see conference predictions below.

Here are the teams I’m predicting to disappoint in 2009 in order of the relative disparity between my picks and the experts’ average while also taking into account the relevance of the pick.  The experts’ average, which is listed in parentheses, consists of the avg. of the Athlon, Phil Steele, Sporting News, CBS, and various other sources. 

 1.  Oregon- 29th in nation (11); 4th in Pac-10 (3)

2.  Georgia Tech- 31st in nation (15); 3rd in ACC Coastal (2)

3.  Michigan State- 39th in nation (26); 5th in Big 10 (3)

4.  Arizona State- 55th in nation (41); 8th in Pac-10 (7)

5.  Kentucky- 61st in nation (48); 6th in SEC East (5)

6.  Middle Tennessee State- 112 in nation (101); 7th in Sun Belt (4)

7.  Memphis- 107th in nation (93); 6th in C-USA East (3)

8.  New Mexico- 106th in nation (87); 9th in MWC (7)

9.  Louisiana Tech- 87th in nation (67); 4th in WAC (3)

10.  Ball State- 108th in nation (100); 4th in MAC West (3)

 Here are my surprise teams in order of the relative disparity between my picks and the experts’ average while also taking into account the relevance of the pick.  The experts’ average, which is represented in parentheses, consists of the avg. of the Athlon, Phil Steele, Sporting News, CBS, and various other sources.

1.   Illinois- 10^th in nation (32); 1^st in Big 10 (5)

2.  South Florida- 17^th in nation (44); 1^st in Big East (T-4)

3.  Kansas- 9^th in nation (23); 1^st in Big 12 North (T-1)

4.  South Carolina- 15^th in nation (49); 2^nd in SEC East (4)

5.  Stanford- 38^th in nation (63); 5^th in Pac-10 (T-7)

6.  Clemson- 16^th in nation (29); 1^st in ACC Atlantic (3)

7.  UAB- 80^th in nation (106); 3^rd in C-USA East (6)

8.  Kent State- 88^th in nation (110); 3^rd in MAC East (6)

9.  Oregon State- 23^rd in nation (33); 3^rd in Pac-10 (4)

10.  Army- 92nd in nation (115)

Sun Belt

1.   Troy (74)- See Notre Dame and UCLA analysis regarding Phil Steele’s continual use of hard drugs when making some of these picks.  He continues this trend by ranking Troy as the # 31 team in the nation.  That’s way too high for them, but they should win Sun Belt though.

2.  Florida Atlantic (89)- With Rusty Smith at QB, this team will be breaking some offensive school records this season.  Still will finish 2nd to Troy i but will get to 3rd straight bowl.

3.  Arkansas State (101)- Don’t really see a 3rd place Sun Belt team worthy of getting a top 100 ranking like several other experts have done.  No way Sun Belt gets 3 bowl bids either.

4.  UL-Lafayette (109)- The Ragin’ Cajuns miraculously finished .500  and have a lot coming back to try to get the school’s first bowl bid.  D-Line and QB play could be problems.

5.  Florida International (110)- Offense returns intact from squad that shocked the world by finally emerging from the basement of 1-A.  Should finish in the middle of the pack in Sun Belt.

6.  UL-Monroe (111)- Mediocre Sun Belt team that loses QB and coordinators on both sides of the ball.  Team is experienced but O-line needs to improve greatly.

7.  Middle Tennessee State (112)- Former Auburn OC, Tony Franklin, has come to install the spread at MTSU.  Will struggle at first but let’s hope the staff is more patient with then they were at Auburn.   

8.  North Texas (117)- Some are calling for this team to finally show some success this season.  I’ll believe it when I see it.  The Dodge experiment has failed miserably.  

9.  Western Kentucky (120)- I think they’ll build a nice program in Bowling Green eventually, but the adjustment to 1-A  will be rough for young, inexperienced Hilltoppers.

MAC East

1.   Buffalo (81)- The Bulls should be relatively good again under superstar coach Turner Gill.  Should win the division again but think CMU will nose them out in the title game.

2.  Temple (85)- I really want to pick the Owls to make their first bowl in 30 years, but I just can’t quite do it.  Team will still be as good, if not better, than last year’s 7-5 squad.

3.   Kent State (88)- This is really a shot in the dark, but I sense some real electicity coming out of the Flashes this year.  I think they’ll challenge for their first bowl bid since ‘72.

4.  Bowling Green (93)- With Sheehan back at QB, this squad could make me look silly for picking them 4th in the MAC East and not in a bowl game.  Tough schedule is the problem.

5.  Ohio (95)- Phil Steele made another ridiculous pick by ranking this team in his top 50.  No one else, including me, is giving this team a chance to win the MAC East.

6.  Akron (97)- Zips got close to making a bowl last year, and with more experience they could get over the hump.  Tough interdivision/non-conference schedule will hurt them.

7.  Miami-OH (116)- Another former MAC powerhouse who has fallen off the map in the last 5 years (also see Toledo).  Still might give a bad UK team a game in the opener.

MAC West

1.   Central Michigan (62)- Should win the MAC with LeFevour back for what seems like his 12th year as QB.  Also, they should have an improved defense led by 10 returning starters.

2.  Western Michigan (71)- Killer non-conference schedule with both Mich. And Mich. St. will hurt their overall record.  Still, team should bowl and finish a solid 2nd to CMU in MAC West. 

3.  Northern Illinois (83)- I’m callling for the Huskies to barely sneak into bowl just like last year.  Offense will be good but defense will struggle with only 4 returning starters.   

4.  Toledo (100)- Rockets looked like they were on their way to becoming a MAC powerhouse earlier this decade.  Things have since gone south, but this squad should be better.

5.  Ball State (108)- After a disappointing end to last season, Brady Hoke and 7 offensive starters, including Nate Davis, are all gone.  Starting a freshman QB in the MAC is dangerous.

6.  Eastern Michigan (114)- Bad returnees plus new coach/schemes could bring a winless season in Ypsilanti.  Best change for a win is probably opener against Army.

Champion: Central Michigan

Independents

1.   Notre Dame (25)- Phil Steele must have taken a Michael Phelps bong hit before he picked the Irish as # 7 in the country.  ND will lose at least 3 and not make it to the BCS.

2.  Navy (63)- Predicted this team to surprise in ‘08 and I was right.  Unfortuantely, it was WFU who they surprised.  Dangerous move by OSU to schedule them in their opener.

3.  Army (92)- The Black Knights were a lot better than their 3-9 record indicated last year, and I think they should win up to 4 or 5 games in ‘09.  Still not ready to bowl.

C-USA East

1.   East Carolina (41)- Pinkney should lead experienced squad to repeat C-USA championship.  However, team has no chance of BCS contention with brutal non-conference slate.

2.  Southern Miss (52)- The Eagles built a lot of momentum for ‘09 by winning their last 5 games in Fedora’s first year.  Still think they’ll get nosed out by ECU in the C-USA East.

3.  UAB (80)-  Blazers will resurrect themselves after several sub-par seasons and become a surprise bowl team in ‘09.  QB Webb leads O with all starters coming back.

4.  Central Florida (91)- Should be better than last year’s disappointing 4-8 campaign, but still see them falling short of a bowl.  If so, it will be interesting to see if O’Leary will be let go.

5.  Marshall (103)- Sad to see that this team struggle so much in the post-Pennington years.  Brutal non-conference slate featuring WV and VT gives them no chance at a bowl.

6.  Memphis (107)- Tommy West is a tremendous coach but I honestly could see this team losing its last 7 games with a brutal schedule and inexperienced offensive line.

C-USA West

1.   Houston (54)- Offense will be extremely potent will 8 R.S. including Keenum at QB.  Unfortunately, an already suspect defense will be worse with only 4 starters back.

2.  Tulsa (64)- Mediocre defense returns, but they won’t be able to outscore everyone with a new QB and only five returning starters.  Has to play ECU and at OK too.   

3.  UTEP (73)- With Vittatoe at QB, the Miners should get back to the wide-open, high-scoring team of old.  Should get enough wins to make a bowl game and keep Price’s job.

4.  SMU (94)- After going 12-1 at Hawaii and then 1-11 with SMU, June Jones’ team will finish somewhere in between. This squad is experienced and will be more comfortable with the system.

5.  Rice (113)- Any experts picking them in the top 100 are forgetting how bad they were prior to Clement and Dillard.  Have solid coach but he has nothing to work with in ‘09.

6.  Tulane (115)- Not really sure if Toledo can get it turned around at Tulane or not.  Liked the hire originally but they’ve been awful the last 2 years and the future isn’t very bright.

Champion: East Carolina

WAC

1.   Boise State (19)- With Moore at QB, this team def. has a shot at the BCS.  However, it’s too risky of a pick since the dream could very well be gone after their first game.

2.  Nevada (53)- Kapernick may be the most underrated QB in the nation, and the Pack will emerge as the only team in the WAC that can challege Boise for the conference title.

3.  Fresno State (77)- Team underachieved last year losing 6 games and tying for 5th in a mediocre WAC.  This year, if they can find a QB, they should end up a solid 3rd in WAC race.

4.  Louisiana Tech (87)- A lot of people are high on these guys based on last year’s success and return of superstar coach.  Might get to a bowl but won’t contend for the WAC crown.

5.  San Jose State (99)- Not smart for Spartans to open with 3 teams in my top 40 as well as one of the best 1-AA teams in the nation.  Bad start could doom any bowl hopes.

6.  Hawaii (102)- The Rainbow Warriors actually looked decent last year after losing Jones and Brennan in ‘07.  Alexander is back at QB, but the cupboard is bare on defense.

7.  Utah State (105)- Utah DC Gary Andersen is a great hire for this perennial doormat who actually showed some promise last year.  Will be a tad better in ‘09 but no bowl game.

8.  Idaho (118)- Biggest game of the opening weekend may not be Bama/VT.  Idaho’s season opener vs. NMSU might be both teams only shot at a win all year.

9.  New Mexico State (119)- See above.  NM has become the new Kentucky.  Good basketball state/bad football state.  However, the Aggies will be better off now that Mumme is gone.

Mountain West

1.   Brigham Young (30)- Expect another solid 9 or 10 win season from the Cougars.  Max Hall will continue to put up ridiculous numbers, and the team should win the MWC title.

2.  TCU (33)- I have the Frogs quite a bit lower than the experts’ average but can’t consider them a disappointment team because they’ll def. challege for the conference title.

3.  Utah (40)- Many experts are talking about a repeat MWC championship from the UTES but I just don’t see it.  They lost their QB, 6 offensive starters, and both coordinators.

4.  Air Force (72)- Option attack will once again be potent as Falcons will make 3 stragiht bowls for the first time since ‘92.   Close game with Navy will decide Commander Trophy.

5.  UNLV (84)- Yeah I may be copying off Phil Steele by picking the Rebels to bowl, but a 5-7 team with 14 R.S. and a manageable schedule should be good enough for a bowl.

6.  Colorado State (90)- Calling for this team to disappoint and fall just short of a bowlgame as a result of losing their QB and 7 defensive starters, and playing in a  deeper MWC.

7.  San Diego State (96)- A much improved Aztec team should flirt with bowl eligibility.  HC must be flirting with a girl in the San Diego area.  No other explanation for Hoke’s move here.

8.  Wyoming (104)- It’s astonishing that a 1-7 MWC team could beat TN last year.  I think they will win more MWC games but will probably lose 3 of 4 non-conference contests.

9.  New Mexico (106)- D should be the problem with this team who has the unfortunate task of playing 9 teams who bowled in 2008.   Predicting a basement finish for both NM teams.