Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist

I think it is close enough to the start of the season to go ahead and make my first set of picks. Most lines are already up for the opening weekend; including the site I use which is World Sports Exchange (www.wsex.com).  Let me first preface this by saying that I am not advocating sports gambling by writing this column. Game lines can be used for a variety of purposes including non-monetary pools. With that being said, as long as I am games relatively well this year, I will likely keep making these weekly picks. I’m traditionally well over .500 over the course of a given season, with the exception of last year where I couldn’t pick a game to save my life. Again, I make no guarantees on the accuracy of these. They are strictly based on my opinion. Hopefully, we can at least generate some good debate out of it. Please note these lines are based on the spreads at the time I research them; therefore, there is a good chance they will change before game time.

 Now onto the picks. These will be listed based on my confidence level with each, starting from highest to lowest.

Pick # 1: Clemson (-19.5) vs. Middle Tennessee State: I predict this to be a major rebuilding year for the Blue Raiders with the addition of Tony Franklin as offensive coordinator. If the Raiders are patient with him, they will build a solid program, but as we found out at Auburn last year, his offense can yield dismal results if his players aren’t yet comfortable with it. On the other hand, I am picking Clemson to be a surprise winner of the ACC Atlantic this year, and I believe they start the season off right with a 4 TD victory at least.

 Pick # 2: Navy (+22.5) at Ohio State: I’m always a little scared to bet for or against Navy since their success largely depends on how well their opponents can prepare for their offense. And yes the Buckeyes have had the entire season to scout the Midshipmen’s option attack. However, this is a dangerous, stupid game for Ohio State to schedule, which is why I think we could have a scare. Breaking in a somewhat inexperienced defense against a gimmicky offense is never a good idea, especially with Southern Cal, who runs an entirely different scheme, coming into town the following week.

 Pick # 3: Illinois (-6.5) vs. Mizzou: Illinois is my # 1 surprise team of the year, and Missouri, while not on my list of disappointment teams, will be worse than some people are predicting. For it is very difficult to have success with new skill position players in a highly specialized spread attack, like the Tigers. Maybe by the end of the year they will become more fluent, but I expect we’ll see a lot of early season mishaps from Mizzou. The Illini win this one by double digits.

 Pick # 4: Stanford (-16.5) vs. Washington State: This line really puzzles me because last season Wazzou was a 30 or more point underdog to just about everybody. This year I think they will be even worse, so expect a Stanford team, who I am predicting to surprise this season, to blowout the Cougars here.

Pick # 5: Utah (-21.0) vs. Utah State: The Utes won’t be nearly as good as last year, in fact I have predicting them to drop off more than many experts. But Utah State is still Utah State, and with a new coach and new schemes to adjust to, expect the Aggies to get hammered here on the road.

 Pick # 6: Florida State (-5.0) vs. Miami-FL: I think if you take the fact that the Noles are playing at home and are generally picked a lot higher than the Canes in most preseason polls/publications this lines should be close to two TDs. However, this is one of those early season rivalry games where anything can happen and the games often times come right down to the wrie. Still, I don’t see the Noles winning this one by less than a touchdown.

Pick # 7: Texas A & M (-13.5) vs. New Mexico: It’s always good to pick the favorite in a game where the line is just less than a factor of 7. Here the Aggies are at 13.5, and even though I am predicting them to finish in the basement of the Big 12 South this season, they are playing at home game against a Lobos team who I feel will be the worst team in the Mountain West. However, if this line moves up over 14 then I will be a little more reluctant to take A & M here.

Pick # 8: Tulsa (-6.5) vs. Tulane: Another game where a team is favored by just less than a factor of 7, meaning a TD victory for the Golden Hurricane covers. To my surprise, it doesn’t appear Toledo will turn around the Waves’ dismal program anytime soon, and even though Tulsa won’t be as good as last year, they will still be one of the top teams in the C-USA. As a general rule, if one of the top 3 teams in a conference is playing one of the bottom 3 and the line is under 7, then pick the favorite.

Pick # 9: Ole Miss (-16.5) vs. Memphis: Everybody is drinking the Rebel Kool-Aid this season, and I have to admit I’ve had a few sips. I am predicting the Rebels to win the SEC West with one of the most favorable schedules in the history of the conference. Furthermore, Memphis is on my list of disappointment teams this year, so naturally I see the Rebels winning huge here (by over 20 points) even if they are playing on the road.

 Pick # 10: Minnesota (-6.5) vs. Syracuse. The Cuse were actually improved last year, and I think they’ll continue to be under a new coach. However, with the Gophers returning about everybody from a solid bowl squad last year, I can’t figure out why many people are picking this team to be one of the worst in the conference. I think Minnesota starts the year off right with a 2 TD victory in this one