Here are my picks in order of most confident to least confident.  I wish I could claim this LA Tech victory, since I liked them a lot in this game, but I refuse to take any credits for picks that I make prior to publication.  Please feel free to comment. 

Pick # 1: Nevada (-4.5) vs. UNLV- For the first this year, I missed my lock of the week last Saturday, as the Jayhawks struggled on both sides of the ball at home against Southern Miss.  The Wolfpack are winless after a tough early season schedule, but proved last week that they’re going to be alright after a good performance against Mizzou.  I think therefore they will win this one handily at home against a UNLV squad whose only 1-A victory was by a point versus Hawaii.

Pick # 2: Florida State (-4.0) vs. Boston College- Let me preface this pick by saying that this might be the worst ESPN Gameday location decision ever.  In fact, these 2 teams have a higher combined total of conference losses than any other BCS game in the country this weekend.  Now on to the pick: BC got extremely lucky to beat a mediocre Wake Forest team at home last week, and based on the cyclical pattern of FSU, where they play bad one week then play good the next, this is there week to perform.

Pick # 3: Arkansas (-1.0) vs. Texas A & M- Sorry Aggie fans.  Despite your unblemished record, you haven’t done anything this year to prove that you’re not the same Big 12 South bottom dweller of 2008.

Pick # 4: Clemson (-13.0) vs. Maryland-  The Terps are horrible.  Enough said. 

Pick # 5: Purdue (-7.0) vs. Northwestern- The Wildcats are really horrible.  Enough said.

Pick # 6: Toledo (-4.5) vs. Ball State-  The Cardinals are really, really horrible.  Enough said.

Pick # 7: Bowling Green (-2.5) vs. Ohio- Should be a good tussle between 2 decent MAC teams, but you have to like the Falcons here at home, especially when you consider they have won 4 of the past 5 in this series, all by double digits. 

Pick # 8: Penn State (-7.0) vs. Illinois- There are two things that the Lions could do here after their disappointing loss last Saturday.  They may come out fired up and win this win by 2 or 3 Tds, or they’ll continue their lackluster play and have to struggle for the victory.  I’m banking on the former rather than the latter, especially considering Illinois’ offensive ineptitude (9 total points in their 2 games against BCS opponents this year).  

Pick # 9: Georgia (-3.0) vs. LSU- Some people think that Ole Miss might have been one of the worst top 5 teams of all-time after the egg they laid in Columbia last Thursday.  However, based on their early season results, I think LSU might be just as bad if, not worse.  Georgia did struggle a little bit against ASU last weekend, but overall they’ve looked very good since their horrendous opener against Oklahoma State.

Pick # 10: Auburn (+2.5) vs. Tennessee- See Upset Pick entry below

Last Week’s Record: 5-5, Overall Record: 22-18  (Haven’t gone under .500 any week this season)

As you may have noticed, I have been tearing these up lately, as I hit 6 out of 8 of my picks last week including my longshot of the week.  I am now 2-2 on the year in picking double digit longshots to win, with one of those losses coming in the final minute.  Unfortunately, this week I don’t like many underdogs to win, and most of the ones I do like are playing on the road.  At any rate, here are some upsets to watch out for.  These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.

Michigan (+2.0) vs. Michigan State- Six of the seventeen remaining unbeatens are underdogs this week, which might be a week 5 record for all I know.  I do realize that some of these teams are justifiably dogs based on their lackluster early victories.  For example, LSU definitely should be a dog at Georgia, and Texas A & M has done nothing to show that they are capable of beating Arkansas.  However, you have to think that at least a couple of these unbeatens will step up and prove they are legit.  Michigan may be one of those teams, as Rich Rod’s spread has caught on faster than I thought in Ann Arbor.  I know this is the Wolverines’ first road game of the year, but the Spartans have already lost to Central Michigan in the friendly confines of East Lansing.

Auburn (+2.5) vs. Tennessee- In Auburn’s case, I don’t think they are necessarily that good,  but because they are better than Ohio, who the Vols barely at home last week, then I think they’ll win this one.

Wisconsin (+3.0) vs. Minnesota- Same logic as for the first 2 picks.  Another unbeaten playing a weaker opponent on the road.  Not going to guarantee that it hits, but it has a chance.

UCLA (+5.0) vs. Stanford- The Cardinal might be a tad overrated after their home beatdown of a Huskies team who had yet to play a road game.  The Bruins, on the other hand, have already won at Neyland and starting to believe that they are a Pac-10 contender this year.

Louisville (+6.5) vs. Pitt- I’m still waiting for the annual Wannstache meltdown game, where they get embarassed as a td or more favorite.  Last year it was against Bowling Green and Rutgers.  In 2006 and 2007, it was versus UConn.  In 2005, it was Ohio.  Louisville has a good a shot as anybody of doing it this year, especially playing at home. 

Longshot of the the Week: Washington (+12.5) vs. Notre Dame- If I get this right for a 3rd straight week, then I may start charging people to find out my weekly longshot pick.  We’ll see if Sarkisian can refocus his squad after their first bad loss of his tenure.  If Locker and the boys come out fired up, then they have a shot , as the “Cardiac Irish” are lucky not to be 1-3 at this point.

The College Football Researcher’s Association poll returned to its roots this week by issuing high rankings to several non-BCS teams.  As early as 1901 in the first split national championship of the 20th century, the CFRA has always stood up for teams located outside the current Big 6 conferences.  It was that year that the poll ranked Harvard as national champion, while all other major rankings selected Michigan as the champ.  This trend continued throughout the next quarter of a century, as eight more times (1904, 1908, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1919, 1922, and 1927) the College Football Researcher’s Association crowned non-BCS national champions, while other polls selected teams from the current Big 6 leagues.  Ironically, this trend has re-emerged this week, as Boise State, TCU, and Houston all received rankings as high or higher in the CFRA than they did in the mainstream polls.  With that being said, here are this week’s rankings.

1.  Florida (7)- 175 points

2.  Texas- 168 points

3.  Alabama- 161 points

4.  Boise State- 152 points

5.  LSU- 143 points

6.  TCU- 122 points

7.  Cincinnati- 121 points

8.  Oklahoma- 117 points

9.  Southern Cal- 110 points

10.  Virginia Tech- 106 points

11.  Ohio State- 101 points

12.  Houston- 84 points

13.  Kansas- 82 points

14.  Oklahoma State- 74 points

15.  Iowa- 64 points

16.  Penn State- 59 points

17.  Michigan- 53 points

18.  Ole Miss- 47 points

19.  Auburn- 44 points

20.  Georgia- 42 points

21.  Missouri- 38 points

22.  South Florida- 35 points

23.  Oregon- 33 points

24.  California- 27 points

25.  Nebraska- 24 points

Others Receiving Votes: Brigham Young 19, Miami 14, Wisconsin 11, Florida State 11, UCLA 10, Georgia Tech 10, Texas A & M 9, South Carolina 7, North Carolina 2

Dropped Out: Miami 11, North Carolina 20, Florida State 25

Besides the non-BCS trend, the biggest surprise here is probably that Miami is not ranked even though they are as high as 17 in this week’s AP poll.  Other teams that are ranked 4 or more spots lower in the CFRA than in both the AP and Coaches polls include: BYU, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech.  On the other hand, TCU, Auburn, and South Florida were all ranked 4 or more spots higher in the CFRA than they were in the AP and Coaches.  As always, please let me know if you’d like to take part in the future College Football Researcher’s Association weekly rankings.

are horrible.  After last week’s games, I have no idea how you can’t rank South Carolina or South Florida.  Besides USF, there are 5  other unbeatens who aren’t ranaked.  Virginia Tech at # 6 is also ludicrous.   I’m not trying to influence the CFRA voters who are still working on their ballots, but give me a break.

Haven’t had the chance to get these out on this week, so I’ll just publish my picks, without any analysis, in case you need them immediately.  Here are my picks in order of most confident to least confident.

1.  Kansas (-13.5) vs. Southern Miss

2.  Minnesota (+2.5) vs. Northwestern

3.  Air Force (-15.5) vs. San Diego State

4.  Georgia Tech (-2.0) vs. North Carolina

5.  Virginia Tech (+1.5) vs. Miami

6.  Oregon State (+2.0 vs. Arizona

7.  Florida Atlantic (-4.0) vs. UL-Monroe

8.  Fresno State (+16.5) vs. Cincinnati

9.  Buffalo (+2.5) vs. Temple

10.  Vandy (-7.0) vs. Rice

Last Week’s Record: 6-4, Overall Record: 17-13 (The general rule with picksters is that if they’re over .500 they’re worth listenting to)

I hit 2 of my 5 upset picks last week, but I was all over my longshot prediction, as Northern Illinois rolled over Purude.   For the first time in a while, I like a lot home teams this week.    As always, these are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.

Wake Forest (+1.5) vs. Boston College-  I’m actually kinda surprised to see that this game has turned from Wake as a 2.5 point favorite to the Deacons as a point and a half dog.  Wake hasn’t played on the road this year, and they struggled mightily doing so last year.  They also have had particular difficulties winning in Chesnut Hill.  However, the Deacs offense seems to be clicking right now, and I’m still holding on to the belief that the the Eagles are destined to finish as low as 5th in the ACC Atlantic.

Minnesota (+1.5) vs. Northwestern- Not surprisingly, this line keeps coming down.  After Northwestern’s past 2 performances (narrow victory over Eastern Michigan and loss to Syracuse), I’ve got to believe this team is destined for the Big 10 cellar.  On the other hand, the Gophers are starting to show that last year’s surprise season was no fluke.  I know it’s always difficult to win in the Big 10 on the road, but the Gophers are flat out the better team.

Troy (+2.0) vs. Arkansas State- The Trojans got off to a shaky start, but no one else in the Sun Belt (including the artists formerly known as the Arkansas State Indians) has shown me anything to make me think that Troy won’t romp through conference play as usual.

Buffalo (+2.5) vs. Temple-  I know I blew my prediction that the Bulls would beat UCF on the road last week, but if Villanova can win at Temple, then why the heck can’t Buffalo. 

Virginia Tech (+3.0) vs. Miami- It happened to BYU last weekend, and I think it’s destined to happen to the Hurricanes this week.  The hype factor will hit the Canes hard due to the fact that  pundits have started listing them as a national title contender.  I just don’t see this squad embracing the added pressure and coming out of Blacksburg with a huge road win.

Marshall (+3.0) vs. Memphis- I was impressed by ther Herd’s victory over Bowling Green last week, and I still believe Memphis is without a doubt the worst team in the C-USA East.

Wyoming (+3.5) vs. UNLV- Neither team has pulled off a big win this year, but both have given superior teams a good scare (Wyoming vs. Texas in the 1st half, UNLV vs. Oregon State until the 4th quarter).  I’ve got to go with the home team in this one though, as the Rebels have yet to leave the friendly confines of sin city this season.

Longshot of the Week: New Mexico State (+10.0) vs. New Mexic0- So who’s worse the Bad News Bears or the Little Giants?  That is pretty much the situation we got here when these two abysmal state rivals face off on Saturday.  Not sure which way it will go, but the Aggies at least have a win this season.

I’ve talked about this concept for a long time, but I recently came up with a name/definition for it and thought I’d share.  Let me know if you agree with my premise. 

Theory of Fanhood Relativity:  If you have a rooting interest in multiple teams who are playing each other, it’s okay to cheer for the one you like less, if the game has more significant implications for that team.

Example: I grew up in South Carolina, so the Gamecocks are one of my all-time favorite teams.  However, I’ve always liked Ole Miss to a lesser extent for various reasons.  Because the Rebels have are a legitimate national title contender, I will be cheering for them to beat the Gamecocks on Thursday.

From ESPN’s Forde-Yard Dash: “You can always count on Ohio State to lose a big game and USC to lose a small one.”

I just wanted to inform everyone that I wrote an opinion article for SurveyMagnet.com this weekend about the best conference in college football.  The article is currently featured on their home page (www.surveymagnet.com), but the direct link to it is: http://www.surveymagnet.com/2009/09/guest-blogger-opinion-from-brad-matthews-which-conference-plays-the-best-college-football/

Please read and respond if you’d like.

It’s nice to see the College Football Researcher’s Association shake-up college football  by producing a somewhat unconventional poll.  While the general makeup is similar, there were a few teams who were ranked either much higher or lower than in the AP and Coaches.  Here are this week’s rankings:

1.  Florida (7)- 175 points

2.  Texas- 168 points

3.  Alabama- 161 points

4.  Penn State- 149 points

5.  Ole Miss- 144 points

6.  California- 143 points

7.  Boise State- 133 points

8.  LSU- 125 points

9.  Cincinnati- 100 points

10.  TCU- 98 points

11.  Miami- 92 points

12.  Oklahoma- 90 points

12.  Ohio State- 90 points

14.  Southern Cal- 76 points

15.  Kansas- 67 points

16.  Virginia Tech- 64 points

17.  Oklahoma State- 62 points

18.  Houston- 48 points

19.  Michigan- 45 points

20.  North Carolina- 41 points

21.  Georgia- 31 points

22.  Brigham Young- 28 points

23.  Auburn- 26 points

24.  Missouri- 21 points

25.  Florida State- 18 points

25.  Nebraska- 18 points

Others Receiving Votes:   Iowa 10, Washington 10, South Florida 9, Pittsburgh 6, Georgia Tech 6, UCLA 5, Wisconsin 4, Kentucky 4, Notre Dame 4, Arizona State 2, Colorado State 1, Oregon 1

Dropped Out: Georgia Tech 11, Utah 19

The big disparities between the CFRA Poll and the AP and Coaches Polls came in the ranking of Cincinnati (9th in our poll, 14 and 15 in AP/Coaches), TCU (10th in our poll, 15 and 14 in AP/Coaches), Kansas (15th in our poll, 20 and 19 in AP/Coaches), and Virginia Tech (16 in our poll, 11 and 12 in AP/Coaches), .  The CFRA apparently loves their Bearcats and isn’t too fond of the Hokies, which is somewhat surprising considering that most of the poll’s voters are located in ACC country.  I also found the amount of variety in this poll very interesting.  These rankings had almost as many different teams receive votes as the AP poll (38 to 39), even though it have 53 less voters.  As always, please let me know if you’d like to take part in the future CFRA weekly rankings.

Here are my picks in order of most confident to least confident.  Please feel free to comment.

Pick # 1: Clemson (-7.0) vs. Boston College- This seems like an absolute lock  to me.  Clemson is playing at home against a BC team that should finish near the bottom of the Atlantic.  I think you’ll see a pretty bad beatdown in this one, especially since the Eagles robbed the Tigers of the ACC Atlantic title last time they came to town.

Pick # 2: Bowling Green (-3.0) vs. Marshall- The Falcons have looked very good in their first 2 games, and the once powerful Herd look to be in the middle of another disappointing season.

Pick # 3: Georgia (+1.5) vs. Arkansas- See upset picks entry below

Pick # 4: UTEP (-13.5) vs. New Mexico State- I know the Miners have dropped their first 2 games, but NMSU is one of the worst teams in 1-A.  This has blowout city written all over it.

Pick # 5: Nevada (-3.0) vs. Colorado State- A little hesitant on this one just because of how bad Nevada looked on the road against Notre Dame.  However, CSU should have lost to Weber State.  With that in mind, I think the Wolfpack win this one and re-emerge as a WAC power.

Pick # 6: Northern Illinois (+13.0) vs. Purdue- See upset picks entry below

Pick # 7: Buffalo (+4.0) vs. Central Florida- See upset picks entry below

Pick # 8: UConn (+10.5) vs. Baylor- I know the Bears have an improved squad this year, but it’s a little too soon for them to be double-digit favorites against BCS schools (exceptions: Wazzou, Colorado).  Also, UConn under Edsall is one of those “grind it out” teams that seems to always play ugly, tight games.  The Bears win here, but not by more than a TD

Pick # 9: Utah (+5.0) vs. Oregon- See upset picks entry below

Pick # 10: Indiana (+4.5) vs. Akrson- See upset picks entry below

Last Week’s Record: 5-5, Overall Reacord: 11-9

After absolutely tearing things up during the first week, none of the ten upsets that I wrote about last week were accomplished.  To all those who saw the Michigan and Houston stunners coming, then congratulations.  Anyway, time to regroup and try again this week. Here are upsets that I could see happening this weekend.  These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.

Georgia (+1.5) vs. Arkansas- One of those lines that I see, and think that maybe Vegas knows something I don’t here.  Arkansas is not supposed to be a very good football team this year, and even though playing on the road in the SEC is always difficult, the Dawgs looked good last week versus South Carolina.  I’ve got to trust my gut here and say that the Bulldogs win a close one.   

Buffalo (+4.0) vs. Central Florida- UCF showed some signs of life last week in a close road loss, but Buffalo has already proven they can win on the road this year with a big opening win against UTEP.  If you can win in a god forsaken place like El Paso, there is no reason you can’t win in Orlando.

Utah (+4.5) vs. Oregon- I called the Ducks to majorly disappoint this season, so I’ve got to put my money where my mouth is and call for them to get beat by an admittedly overrated Utah team.

 Indiana (+5.0) vs. Akron- Can someone please tell me why this line keeps going up?  I knowIndiana is a bad Big 10 team, but please realize that Akron is a bad MAC team.  And I’ll take a Big 10 bottom dweller over their MAC counterpart any day of the week, even on the road.

Navy (+7.0) vs. Pitt- In the words of a dear friend, “you can always count on the Wannstache to produce a good letdown game”.

Longshot of the Week: Northern Illinois (+13.0) vs. Purdue- After the MAC’s impressive performance against the Big Ten last week, I think we could have another close call/potentail upset in this game.  Unlike the IU/Akron game where I’m calling for a Hoosiers victory, this game pits a bad Big 10 team versus a good MAC team.   Also, consider that NIU only lost by 8 at Wisconsin, who I believe is a much stronger squad than this year’s Boilermakers.

As I mentioned in my previous entry, with the help of a few other college football experts, I am renewing the legendary College Football Researcher’s Association poll for the season.  The votes have been calculated for this week’s rankings, so without further ado, may I present to you the first CFRA poll since  1935.

1.  Florida (6)- 150 points

2.  Texas- 144 points

3.  Southern Cal- 136 points

4.  Alabama- 131 points

5.  Penn State- 122 points

6.  Brigham Young- 117 points

7.  Ole Miss- 114 points

8.  California- 107 points

9.  Boise State- 101 points

10.  LSU- 97 points

11.  Georgia Tech- 75 points

12.  TCU- 73 points

13.  Ohio State- 71 points

14.  Oklahoma- 64 points

15.  Cincinnati- 55 points

16.  Nebraska- 52 points

17.  Virginia Tech- 45 points

18.  Oklahoma State- 44 points

19.  Utah- 42 points

20.  Miami- 34 points

21.  North Carolina- 33 points

21.  Kansas- 33 points

23.  Houston- 31 points

24.  Michigan- 30 points

25.  Georgia- 16 points

Others Receiving Votes:  Oregon State 9, West Virginia 6, Texas Tech 6, Missouri 5, Notre Dame 3, South Florida 2, Auburn 2

As you can see, the results came out pretty similar to what the other prestigious national polls, the AP and Coaches.  Some of the biggest disparities were Cincinnati (15 in our poll, 21 in Coaches) and Georgia (25 in our poll, 20 in Coaches).  We actually ended up having the exact same top 25 as the AP.  Again, please let me know if you’d like to take part in the future CFRA weekly rankings.

Way back in college football’s inaugural season of 1869 two polls were formed that enabled a group of  fans to vote on a national champion.  One of those polls, the College Football Researchers Association Poll (also known as the CFRA poll), emerged as the most preeminent poll in college football until the Associated Press rankings took its place in 1936.  As a general notion, the poll treated Notre Dame unfavorably by voting against them twice in years where they earned split national titles (1919 and 1930).  And instead gave a great deal of respect to Alabama by awarding them split championships in 1925, 1926, and 1930.   At any rate, to honor this significant piece of football history, the College Football Researchers Association Poll  is now being reinvented on this blog.  The CFRA poll will be voted on each week by me and other college football fans  deemed worthy enough to participate .  The first edition of the poll will come out this Monday and then be published every week thereafter.

 If you would like to become an official member of the CFRA and obtain the ability to vote in this weekly poll, then send an email to bmatthews85@gmail.comand give your name, location, and a brief description of your credentials (how long you have been watching cf, who your favorite team is, etc.).  If you are chosen to participate in the poll, then you will be notified.  Also, overly biased rankings (ex: voting Clemson # 1) will result in your disqualification from the poll and the revocation of your future voting privileges.  Seriously though, join the poll.  I’ve always thought it would be cool to come up with a rankings system that complied the votes of friends and other fans.  At the very least, it should generate some good debate.  Again, let me know if your interested in participating.

I went 6-4 last week, which isn’t horrible.  Unfortuantely, this week I’m not quite as confident about my picks.  Everyone has a fatal flaw when it comes to picking games, and mine tends to be that I underestimate home field advantage and end up picking  too many road teams.  That’s what I felt like happened this week, but we’ll see how it turns out.  Here are my picks in order of most confident to least confident.  Please feel free to comment.

Pick # 1: Southern Cal (-6.5) vs. Ohio State- Predicitng another blowout in this series.

Pick # 2: Virginia Tech (-19.5) vs. Marshall- A fired up Hokie team should win big at home.

Pick # 3: Utah (-14.0) vs. San Jose State- A friend told me that this is the lock of the week.  I’ll take his word on it, but the Utes will have to play better than they did in the first week.

Pick # 4: Iowa (-6.5) vs. Iowa State- I know that the Hawkeyes almost lost to Northern Iowa, but I really think that NIU is a tougher opponent than the Cyclones.

Pick # 5: Western Michigan (+1.5) vs. Indiana- See comments in upset entry below.

Pick # 6: BYU (-17.5) vs. Tulane- Tulsa beat Tulane on the road last week by 24, so I don’t see why the Cougars won’t do the same or better here.

PIck # 7: Oregon State (-7.0) vs. UNLV- I think the Beavers are looking to win big here and make a statemetn that they’re once again a Pac-10 title contender.

Pick # 8: Tulsa (-17.0) vs. New Mexico- I picked Tulsa last week and it hit, and I picked against New Mexico last week and it hit.  Time to try it again.

Pick # 9: Kansas State (-7.5) vs. UL-Lafayette- I know it’s on the road, but I’ll pick a mediocre Big 12 team  to beat a mediocre Sun Belt team by more than a TD  anyday.

Pick # 10: Syracuse (+28.0) vs. Penn State- Really surprised this line is as high as it is.  I think the rejuvenated Orange will keep it close for a while at least.

Last week’s record: 6-4, Overall Record: 6-4