Week 5 Upsets
Posted by deaconcat08 on September 30, 2009
As you may have noticed, I have been tearing these up lately, as I hit 6 out of 8 of my picks last week including my longshot of the week. I am now 2-2 on the year in picking double digit longshots to win, with one of those losses coming in the final minute. Unfortunately, this week I don’t like many underdogs to win, and most of the ones I do like are playing on the road. At any rate, here are some upsets to watch out for. These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.
Michigan (+2.0) vs. Michigan State- Six of the seventeen remaining unbeatens are underdogs this week, which might be a week 5 record for all I know. I do realize that some of these teams are justifiably dogs based on their lackluster early victories. For example, LSU definitely should be a dog at Georgia, and Texas A & M has done nothing to show that they are capable of beating Arkansas. However, you have to think that at least a couple of these unbeatens will step up and prove they are legit. Michigan may be one of those teams, as Rich Rod’s spread has caught on faster than I thought in Ann Arbor. I know this is the Wolverines’ first road game of the year, but the Spartans have already lost to Central Michigan in the friendly confines of East Lansing.
Auburn (+2.5) vs. Tennessee- In Auburn’s case, I don’t think they are necessarily that good, but because they are better than Ohio, who the Vols barely at home last week, then I think they’ll win this one.
Wisconsin (+3.0) vs. Minnesota- Same logic as for the first 2 picks. Another unbeaten playing a weaker opponent on the road. Not going to guarantee that it hits, but it has a chance.
UCLA (+5.0) vs. Stanford- The Cardinal might be a tad overrated after their home beatdown of a Huskies team who had yet to play a road game. The Bruins, on the other hand, have already won at Neyland and starting to believe that they are a Pac-10 contender this year.
Louisville (+6.5) vs. Pitt- I’m still waiting for the annual Wannstache meltdown game, where they get embarassed as a td or more favorite. Last year it was against Bowling Green and Rutgers. In 2006 and 2007, it was versus UConn. In 2005, it was Ohio. Louisville has a good a shot as anybody of doing it this year, especially playing at home.
Longshot of the the Week: Washington (+12.5) vs. Notre Dame- If I get this right for a 3rd straight week, then I may start charging people to find out my weekly longshot pick. We’ll see if Sarkisian can refocus his squad after their first bad loss of his tenure. If Locker and the boys come out fired up, then they have a shot , as the “Cardiac Irish” are lucky not to be 1-3 at this point.