I did not have the best luck picking upsets last week, as I only picked 2 out of 6 correctly and was way off in my longshot.  To my defense, however, I don’t think anyone saw the two Big 12 shockers coming, and other than that the favorites pretty much carried their weight.  This week I’m hoping and praying that Texas and USC get upset in the two primetime ABC games.  That would definitely make this ho-hum college football season that much more interesting.  However, as you will see below, I think one of those upsets is a lot more likely than the other to go down.  I’m also more confident about this set of upset predictions than last weeks, althought I’m absolutely clueless when it comes to the double-digit longshot.  Here are my upsets to look for in week 9.  Keep in mind that I’m not necessarily picking these teams to win, I’m just saying that there is a decent chance that they do.  These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange. 

Western Michigan (+2.5) vs. Kent State- See analysis for this game in my picks of the week entry below.

Louisiana Tech (+3.0) vs. Idaho- After Nevada put up 70 on the Vandals last week, I think we’re all beginning to think that we definitely overhyped this Idaho team.  I’ll be the first to admit that I contributed to that, and while I love the storyline, I never thought they were actually that good.  Part of sports is overhyping cinderella stories, and that’s what I think we all did here.  Maybe I’m wrong though.  Maybe the Vandals will come out and beat LA Tech for their 7th win.  However, as I wrote on my “good thoughts/bad thoughts” entry the past two weeks, I think the Vandals bowl fate will come down to their season finale against Utah State.   For even though they already have 6 wins, it may take 7 for them to actually get a bid. 

Oregon (+3.0) vs. Southern Cal- Wow, wouldn’t it be amazing if there was some Halloween upset magic going on simultaneously in Eugene and Stillwater?  It would make for a night we’d never forget.  Unfortuantely, for the Cowboys, I think the loss of Bryant and injury of Hunter will be too much for them to overcome.  Yes, that game does have the feel of the Texas Tech/Texas classic last year, but a key difference is that the Red Raiders were at full strength for their victory.   On other hand, I think there is a very good chance we could get an upset in Autzen.  If you just look at the facts and figures here, it appears that Oregon should actually be favored in this one.  They are playing at home and have been blowing out their opponents on a weekly basis, while USC has the worst loss between the two and barely squeaked by Oregon State and Notre Dame in their past 2 games.  The reason the Trojans are favored, however, is because of their amazing big game success under Pete Carroll.  Just out  curiosity, have they ever lost a primetime ABC game before?  I can’t think of one.  The bottom line is that this game could go either way, and I’m just hoping the football gods are on the side home team this week.

Minnesota (+3.5) vs. Michigan State- I was really stunned when I saw this line come out and Michigan State was a 6 point favorite.  Now, it has come down to where it belongs at around 3.  The overrated
Spartans are probably a slightly better team, especially with Decker out for Minnesota, but home field advantage in the Big 10 is not to be taken lightly.

Central Michigan (+5.5) vs. Boston College- This is one of those extremely unpredictable games between a mid-major powerhouse and a decent BCS conference team.  The Eagles have been surprisingly good at home this year, but Central Michigan has looked almost unbeatable since their season-opening loss to Arizona.  In fact, without that loss, the Chippewas probably be in the top 10 and right in the thick of the BCS-buster debate.  This game could go either way, and I applaud both teams on scheduling an unusual midseason non-conference matchup.  I imagine BC did not expect to see a 7-1 Top 25 team come to town when they scheduled this one originally.

South Carolina (+5.5) vs. Tennessee- Based on last week’s results (South Carolina’s near loss to Vandy and Tennessee’s near upset of Bama) and the fact that this game is in Neyland, you’d have to give the edge to the Vols here.  However, there are definitely some other factors to consider.  You have to worry about Tenneessee’s psyche after such a devastating loss in Bama.  Will they be able to get up for this one?  Also, on the side of things, Spur Dog absolutely thrives on beating UT year after year.  Taking all of it in consideration, I do think the Cocks find a way to sneak out a win in Knoxville. 

Longshot of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe (+16.5) vs. Troy- Picking a longshot game this week is like trying to choose a College Football All-American from Western Kentucky.  Not the best situation.  Anyway, here is what I came up with.  This is definitely the biggest longshot I’ve taken so far this year, as I didn’t like any of the other double-digit dogs who were favored by less.  Troy is probably still king of the Sun Belt and they are at home in this one, but never underestimate a team in the midst of a magical run like the Warhawks are this season.

After another impressive week 7-3, Ive extended my record to 48-32 on the season.  Barring a late-season collapse, I will likely finish ahead of any “betting service” that you might go to for advice on weekly picks.  Still  haven’t had a bad week, and here’s hoping that this isn’t the first.  The spreads are based on the current lines according to the Worst Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.

Pick # 1:  Miami-FL (-7.0) vs. Wake Forest- I hate to do this against my alma mater, but judging by how bad Wake has played in the last few weeks, it’s hard not to think they will get blown out here, even at home.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be dressed in my black and gold on Saturday cheeering my heart out for the Deacs, but this Canes team reminds me of Clemson in terms of their athleticism, and the Clemson/Wake game two weeks ago was probably the biggest beatdown this year in the ACC.

Pick # 2: Houston (-6.5) vs. Southern Miss- When I see a line that seems lopsided, I usually try to figure out a reason why.  A lot of times there will be a key injury.  Sometimes it’s because a team is getting way too much hype.  Frequently, it will be based on an overabundance of respect for home field advantage.  This, however, is one line that I don’t get at all.  Houston is a top-15 team that is only one horrible road loss away from being in the thick of the BCS discussion.  They are heavily favored to roll to the C-USA championship and haven’t lost at home since 2007.  The Golden Eagles, on the other hand, have already dropped 3 games and got beat by UAB the last time they played outside of Hattiesburg.  There are also no major suspensions or injuries that I know of.  Therefore, why is this line only 6.5 points?  Is there some kind of fix going on? 

Pick # 3: Air Force (-5.5) vs. Colorado State- This line has soared from 3.5 to 5.5 in the past couple of days, and it’s pretty obvious why.  The Falcons are by far the best MWC team outside of the big 3 (TCU, BYU, and Utah), and have already given two of those teams a run for their money (lost to TCU by 3, lost in OT at Utah).  Colorado State, on the other hand, is in the midst of a crash and burn type of season losing 5 in a row, including an embarrasing 2 TD home loss to San Diego State last week.  The Falcons should roll in this one.

Pick # 4: West Virginia (-3.0) vs. South Florida- I used to love picking weekday games, but unfortuately I haven’t found a lot of weekday spreads I’ve liked this year.  This week, however, I like the road teams in both Thursday and Friday’s games.  West Virginia is a strong contender to win the Big East this year, and USF appeards to be in the middle of one of their typical late-season collapses.

Pick # 5: North Carolina (+16.5) vs. Virginia Tech- I know the Heels are struggling this season, but this is a ton of points to give Butch Davis’ team.  UNC is still fighting for a bowl bid, so they come in with plenty to play for.  Virginia Tech has looked very good at home this season, but UNC has played the Hokies close the past 2 years.  I just don’t see VT winning this one by more than 2 TDs. 

Pick # 6: UTEP (-7.0) vs. UAB- Just going to give you a couple of tidbits for you to consider here. (1) I’ve been red-hot picking C-USA games this year (going 6-0 in one of my pools).  (1) The last two times UTEP has played at home they beat Houston and Tulsa (arguably C-USA’s two best teams) , and (3) UAB is 0-4 this year on the road, with all losses coming by 13 points or more.  The Miners should win big here.

Pick # 7: Florida State (-9.0) vs. NC State- This is another line that has gone up throughout the week, as many bettors are seeing this game exactly as I do.  FSU may be in the midst of a late season resurgence as a result of last week’s comeback win over UNC.  The Wolfpack, on the other hand, are one of the disappointment stories of the year, as they come into this one with a 3-game losing streak including back-to-back double digit losses to Duke and BC.  This should be a comfortable victory for the Noles.

Pick # 8: Michigan (-7.0) vs. Illinois- Quite simply, the Illini are 1-6 this season will all 6 losses coming by double-digits.  Why then would I have any reason to belive they’ll play Michigan (an upper-echelon Big 10 team) any closer than cream puff opponents like Indiana and Purdue?

Pick # 9: Eastern Michigan (+38.0) vs. Arkansas- General rule: With a few exceptions, an unranked team should never be favored by more than 35 points against any other 1-A opponent.  I do realize EMU is winless, but they’ve been competitive in a majority of their games.  The bigger question here, however, is why the heck is this game being televisioned nationally in prime-time on ESPN U.  I think a strong case could be made that this is the worst nationally televised Saturday night college football game ever. 

Pick # 10: Western Michigan (+2.5) vs. Kent State-  Kent State is all of a sudden one of the surprise teams of the year in the MAC, but I think its because they’ve been overlooked by many of their opponents, including Ohio lask week.  A solid Western Michigan team, coming in as a surprise underdog, should be focused and motivated enough to beat them.

Last Week’s Record: 7-3, Overall Record: 48-32 (Magial year in the making!)

As it did in the early 1900s, the CFRA is serving as the voice of reason in college football by being the only major poll in country to rank Boise State, TCU, and Cincinnati ahead of Southern Cal.   The CFRA’s consistent respect for these mid-majors and Cincy becomes more and more legitimate each week, as all three had  impressive victories on Saturday to further validate their lofty rankings in this poll.  Additional mid-major adoration is seen towards the bottom of these rankings, as Central Michigan sneaks into the poll for the first time.  This marks the first-time in the history of the College Football Researchers Association that a team from the MAC has made its top 25.  Also, for the third straight week, there is a tie in the poll, as both Pitt and Ohio State share the 16 spot.  Here are this week’s rankings:

 1.  Florida (7)- 223 points

2.  Alabama (1)- 213 points

3.  Texas (1)- 212 points

4.  Boise State- 190 points

5.  Cincinnati- 182 points

6.  TCU- 174 points

7.  Southern Cal- 171 points

8.  Iowa- 169 points

9.  LSU- 153 points

10.  Oregon- 133 points

11.  Oklahoma State- 131 points

12.  Penn State- 129 points

13.  Georgia Tech- 125 points

14.  Virginia Tech- 104 points

15.  Houston- 96 points

16.  Ohio State- 87 points

16.  Pittsburgh- 87 points

18.  West Virginia- 69 points

19.  Utah- 65 points

20.  Miami- 48 points

21.  South Carolina- 39 points

22.  Ole Miss- 33 points

23.  Oklahoma- 27 points

24.  Central Michigan- 20 points

25.  Notre Dame- 16 points

Others Receiving Votes: Arizona 15, Clemson 4, Navy 4, Brigham Young 3, Wisconsin 2, Georgia 1

Dropped Out: Brigham Young 17, Kansas 21, Texas Tech 23, South Florida 25,

Teams Ranked Higher in CFRA than BCS, AP, and Coaches: Boise State (4), Oklahoma State (11), West Virginia (18), Central Michigan (24).

Teams Ranked Lower in CFRA than BCS, AP, and Coaches: Southern Cal (7), Georgia Tech (13), Miami-FL (20), Arizona (NR).

Teams Ranked Exactly the Same in All 3 Major Human Polls (AP, CFRA, and Coaches): Florida (1), Alabama (2), Texas (3), LSU (9), Virginia Tech (14), Utah (19), South Carolina (21), Notre Dame (25).

Good Thoughts:

1.  Stan Parrish-  Any head coach who breaks a 35-game losing streak, which originated on October 25, 1986, deserves acknowledgement on every college football column this week.  Congrats Stan!  He was still an awful hire by Ball State though.

2.  Lower-Ranked Unbeatens-  Even though Florida, Texas, and Alabama took care of business this week, the BCS controversy continues to heat up due to  impressive performances by the other four 1-A unbeatens.  While the Gators and Tide had to struggle to win games against vastly inferior opponents, TCU, Iowa, Cincinnati, and Boise State, all had statement wins.  Cincy blew out Louisville without its starting quarterback.  TCU manhandled a 16th-ranked BYU squad on the road.  Boise also won on the road in dominating fashion.  And Iowa made a stunning  drive in the final minute to beat Michigan State, in what many are calling the most exciting finish to a college football game this season.  I’m not saying these teams should pass the USC, Bama, or Texas, but I think these performances should prove that they are superior to all of the one-loss challengers.  Southern Cal seems to be the team who could pass all these guys in the BCS Standings, which would be a travesty given the fact that Portland State held Oregon State to fewer points than the Trojans did on Saturday. 

3.  Bowl Bubble: Teams Improving Odds- Here are some bowl bubble teams who helped their eligibility odds by getting big/surprising wins on Saturday.  Note the “Previous odds of bowl eligibility” statistic” is my determination of each team’s going into this weekend’s games.

• Florida State- Record: 3-4; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 41%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 56%; Outlook: It looked like Bowden was on his way out with a disappointing losing season that would leave his team ineligible for a bowl game for the first time since the mid-1970s.  However, after a huge comeback road win against UNC, FSU now has a good shot at reaching the 6-win mark.  They’ll need to beat NC State and Maryland at home and Wake on the road, which will likely be  a bowl elimination game for both teams.
• Iowa State- Record: 5-3; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 40%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 52%; Outlook: The Cyclones quest for an unfathomable bowl berth got a huge boost with a shocking win over Nebraska, which some are calling the upset of the season so far.  They just need one more win now, and they’ll have good chances to get it next week at Texas A & M and at home  against Colorado on November 14th. 
• Kent State- Record: 4-4; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 22%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 33%; Outlook: My bold preseason prediction that the Flashes would have a breakout year this season is starting to look pretty good.  After back-to-back road victories including Saturday’s upset over Ohio, Kent State has put itself in a position for a bowl game if they can catch some breaks down the stretch.  They may need 7 wins from the MAC to get to a bowl, but they only figure to be a major underdog in one of their remaining games (at Temple).
• Temple- Record: 5-2; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 87%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 95%; Outlook: After their big road victory over Toledo, it looks like a foregone conclusion that Temple will bowl for the first time since 1979.  They only need more win, and I can’t imagine them not getting it two weeks from now when winless Miami-OH comes to town.
• Texas A & M- Record: 4-3; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 37%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 53%; Outlook: I still have no idea how they beat Texas Tech Saturday night, but with the victory, the Aggies may have turned the tide in their downward spiral towards the Big 12 basement.  All of a sudden, a bowl game seems very possible in College Station, as both Iowa State (Oct. 31) and Baylor (Nov. 21) come to town in the upcoming weeks.
• Stanford- Record: 5-3; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 35%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 43%; Outlook:  The Cardinal won a huge bowl elimination game versus ASU to setup a brutal 4 game stretch to end the year.  The good news is that 3 of the games are in Palo Alto.  The bad news is that all four opponents are or have been ranked in the top 20 this season.  Their best chances at wins are at home versus Cal and Notre Dame to end the season, and even though I don’t think they’ll win either game, Jim Harbaugh is def. capable of pulling a surprise. 

Bad Thoughts:

1.  Troublemakers- One thing that I’ve always found odd about college football is how some teams seem to always play particularly well or particularly bad against certain opponents.  Even as players and coaches change from year-to-year and even decade-to-decade, the phenomenon, where particular teams give certain superior opponents all kinds of trouble, continues.  Examples of this were seen all across the country on Saturday, as several teams were pushed to the limits or upset by a squad that they have had surprisingly bad results with over the years.  South Carolina squeaked by their nemesis Vandy.  Notre Dame almost lost to BC for the 7th straight time.  Alabama needed a big play to beat Tennessee, who has crushed the dreams of the Tide in years past.  Florida struggled in Starkville, where they hadn’t won since 1985.  Wake Forest lost to Navy for the second straight year, and  Oregon State, as usual, gave USC all it could handle.  College football sure is a strange game…

2.  Poor coaching decisions-  Usually when the phrase “what a bad call” has been uttered this college football season, it has applied to the numerous questionable calls made by officials in big games.  However, this Saturday, the phrase better described some horrible play calls made by coaches in several big games. 

• Jim Grobe/Steed Lobotzke- We’ll start with my poor Demon Deacons, who after not being able to run the ball the entire year, decide to put it on the ground the whole game against Navy’s strong run defense.  The strategy resulted in zero touchdowns through the first 3 quarters.  Then, exactly as we did in the BC game, we started successfully moving the ball through the air late in the game.  However, it was too little, too late, as a holding call against our horrible offensive line, cost us a chance to make a game-tying score.  Now someone please explain to me why we can’t start out passing to setup the run?  LOBO’S GOT TO GO!!!
• Dan Mullen- As bright as this guy seems, this is the second upset bid this year he’s blown by making some stupid late-game decisions.  Against LSU, on 3rd and goal from the inch line, he chose to run a play action pass on 3rd Down and some kind of misdirection draw on 4th Down instead of just sneaking it in for the winning score.  The Bulldogs didn’t come close to scoring on either play, and LSU came out of Starkville with a win.  On Saturday, Miss. State was right in the thick of things with the Florida Gators until Mullen inexplicably called a fake punt inside his own 20 yard line.  The play failed miserably, and immediately thereafter, Florida marched in for a short TD which ultimately ended the Bulldogs’ upset bid.
• Lane Kiffin- I will say that Lane has brought his A-game in the two toughest games anyone has played this season.  Only the Vols have had to play on the road against both the # 1 and # 2 team in the nation, and Tennessee took both teams right down to the wire.  However, in Saturday’s final drive, Kiffin setup for the winning field goal way, way too early.  With nearly 45 seconds left, the Vols elected to go ahead and put the ball in the middle of the field in preparation for a long field goal attempt from a kicker who had struggled all day.  I know they were out of timeouts, but the way Crompton was throwing the ball, he could have easily completed a couple of out-routes which would have setup a much easier field goal or even a touchdown for the Vols.

3.  Bowl Bubble: Teams Hurting their Bowl Chances- Here are some bowl bubble teams who hurt their eligibility odds by picking up bad/disappointing losses on Saturday.  Note the “Previous odds of bowl eligibility” statistic” is my determination of each team’s going into this weekend’s games.

• Arizona State- Record: 4-3; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 36%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 14%; Outlook:  The Sun Devils’ bowl hopes just went from bad to worse with their loss at Stanford.  Even though they currently have a winning record, they will almost certainly be a dog in all of their final 5 games.
• Indiana- Record: 4-4; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 52%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 30%; Outlook: The Hoosiers blew a huge second half lead to Northwestern, which will likely cost them a spot in a bowl game.  They now must win home games against both Wisconsin and Purdue.
• UL-Lafayette- Record: 4-3; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 42%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 29%; Outlook: So sad to see the Ragin’ Cajuns’ quest at their first bowl game take a huge hit by getting walloped at home by 1-4 Florida Atlantic.  They still have winnable games against FIU and rival UL-Monore, but I don’t think 6 wins will be enough to get a bowl berth out of the Sun Belt.
• Wake Forest- Record: 4-4; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 50%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 18%; Outlook: Due to a painful loss to Navy, who did not even attempt a pass in the game, the Deacons will need to win their last two (vs. FSU, at Duke) to reach the 6-win mark. 

Introduction:

I have always been one of the most ardent supporters of a playoff system.  I think my passion for the cause began in 1994 when an undefeated Penn State got screwed out of even a split national championship because pollsters for some reason concluded Nebraska was better.  The NFL success of the players from those two teams would indicate otherwise (ex: Kerry Collins was QB for PSU, Tommy Frazier).  Either way, there was no reason that those 2 teams shouldn’t have each gotten a share of the national title.  That was my first experience dealing with the injustice of the college football postseason.  In 1998, I finally decided to draft my first-ever mock playoff with a 16-team format that I devised.  I have made a few modifications and improvements over the years, but for the most part, this is the same system I’ve been preaching about for over a decade now.  I’ve named it the Bowl Tournament Series (BTS) because it takes the bowl games and transforms them into a tournament, while still managing to utilize the BCS for a productive use.  Let me know your thoughts.

Basic Format:

• 16 teams (11 conference championships and 5 at-larges chosen by the top 5 in the BTS Standings, which is the functional equivalent to the BCS.  My rationale is for this is that it’s something computer/poll-related to keep the pro-BCS folks happy)
• 4 regions (teams seeded 1-4 based on committee)
• Bowl sites will become tourney sites.  See further explanation below. 
• Selection Sunday will be held the day after conference championship day and the first game will be played two weeks after that.  This gives teams time to rest/heal up after the regular season and for the players to complete their exams, which is always a gripe from the anti-playoff crowd.
• A couple of special stipulations are that two teams from the same conference can’t play in the same region, and each conference is limited to three total playoff teams. 

Scheduling:

• I’ve even drafted a mock game schedule that takes into consideration both the interests of the viewers and  television providers.  I’m going to assume that ABC/ESPN buy the rights to playoff coverage, since they have already purchased future BCS coverage rights.  The ABC/ESPN splits will be conducted just like they are now with ABC providing everybody’s regional games, and ESPN showing the games outside the area.
• Week 1 (First Round):  Game 1: Thursday 8:00- second best game of the week (ESPN);  Game 2: Friday 8:00- worst game of the week (ESPN); Games 3 and 4: Saturday 12:00- two non-west region games (ABC/ESPN split); Games 5 and 6: Saturday 3:30- two games of any type (ABC/ESPN split); Games 7 and 8: Saturday 8:00- game of the week is on ABC; ESPN has other game.
• Week 2 (Elite 8): Game 1: Saturday 12:00- Third biggest game of the week but can’t be west regional final (ABC); Game 2: Saturday 3:30- Worst game of the week (ESPN); Game 3: Saturday 3:30- Second biggest game of the week (ABC); Game 4: Saturday 8:00- Featured game of the week (ABC).
• Week 3 (Final Four): Game 1: Saturday 3:30- Second biggest game of the week (ABC); Game 2: Saturday 8:00- Featured game of the week (ABC).
• Week 4 (Championship Game): Saturday 8:00 (ABC)

Bowl Sites:

• Lower-level bowl sites will become first round sites on a rotational basis.  2009: East Regional- Washington D.C. Charlotte; South Regional- Memphis, Tampa; Midwest Regional- San Antonio, Houston; West Regional: Albuquerque, Las Vegas.  2010: East- Birmingham, New York (site of new Yankee bowl); South- Mobile, Orlando; Midwest- El Paso, Shreveport; West- San Francisco, Boise.  2011: East- Toronto, Nashville; South- Jacksonville, Nashville; Midwest- Fort Worth, Detroit; West: San Jose, Honolulu.
•  The current semi-major bowl sites of Dallas (Cotton), San Diego(Holiday), Phoenix (Fiesta), and Atlanta (Chick-Fil-A) will be annual elite 8 sites.  Midwest Regional- Phonenix, East Regional- Dallas, West Regional- San Diego, South Regional- Atlanta.
• The Final Four/Championship games will be held at Pasadena, New Orleans, and Miami.  The championship game will rotate between the 3 sites, and the two final four games will be played in the non-championship cities. 
• Other notes: (1) New bowl sites coming into existence must replace old ones.  (2) The first-round sites that are off of the playoff rotation will still hold bowl games.  More explanation on that to follow.  (3) I do realize that the Fiesta Bowl and the city of Phoenix are going to feel they got screwed here, as they are being demoted from a current BCS site to an elite 8 playoff site.  They’ll just have to get over it because the Fiesta has without a doubt less tradition and prestige associated with it than the rest of the BCS bowls.

Remaining Bowl Games:

• This is time where things get tricky, as I try to accomodate the rest of the bowl eligible teams who do not make the 16-team playoff.
• There will be 16 bowl games held at all the first-round sites who are off of the playoff rotation.
• The names of the bowls can either change depending on which bowl is being played each year, or a bowl game can be played every year at different sites.  It doesn’t really make a difference to me.
• The tie-ins for the bowls will try to replicate those for the current bowl games with the obvious omission of all tie-ins of conference champoins.  Also, the number of bowl teams from each conference may fluctuate depending on how many teams it sends to the playoff in a particular season.
• Overall, in this system there will be 48 1-A postseason teams (16 in playoff, 32 in bowls), which is much more reasonable than the current number fo 64.  Honestly, by taking out some of the garbage teams who currently squeak into bowl games, I think this system will actually make the bowl games more meaningful and watchable.

Mock Playoff- Based on 2008 Results:

• Here is my system put to life using last year’s regular season results.  I will do one of these for 2009 after the conference championship games are finished.
• The Field: Virginia Tech (ACC  Champ), Cincinnati (Big East Champ), Penn State (Big 10 Champ), Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ), Southern Cal (Pac-10 Champ), Florida (SEC Champ), Utah (MWC Champ), Boise State (WAC Champ), East Carolina (C-USA Champ), Buffalo (MAC Champ), Troy (Sun Belt Champ), Texas (at-large, # 3 in BTS standings), Alabama (at-large, # 4 in BTS standings), Texas Tech (at-large, # 7 in BTS standings), Ohio State, (at-large, # 10 in BTS standings), TCU (at-large, # 11 in BTS standings).
• Midwest Regional
• (1) Oklahoma vs. (4) Troy, Saturday December 20th- 8:00 (ESPN), Fort Worth, TX
•  (2) Penn State vs. (3) Boise State, Saturday December 20th- 12:00 (ABC), Detroit, MI
• Winners play Saturday December 27th at 3:30 in Phoenix, AZ (ABC)
• East Regional
• (1) Alabama vs. (4) Virginia Tech, Thursday December 18th- 8:00 (ESPN), Nashville, TN
• (2) Southern Cal vs. (3) TCU, Saturday December 20th- 3:30 (ABC), Toronto, Can.
• Winners play Saturday December 27th at 8:00 in Dallas, TX (ABC)
• South Regional
• (1) Florida vs. (4) Buffalo, Saturday December 20th- 12:00 (ESPN), Jacksonville, FL
• (2) Texas Tech vs. (3) Ohio State, Saturday December 20th- 8:00 (ABC), St. Petersburg, FL
• Winners play Saturday December 27th at 12:00 in Atlanta, GA (ABC)
• West Regional
• (1) Texas vs. (4) East Carolina, Saturday December 20th- 3:30 (ESPN), San Jose, CA 
• (2) Utah vs. (3) Cincinnati, Friday December 19th- 8:00 (ESPN), Honolulu, HI
• Winners play Saturday December 27th at 3:30 in San Diego (ESPN)
• Final Four
• Midwest Champ vs. East Champ, Saturday January 5th- 3:30 (ABC)
• West Champ vs. South Champ, Saturday January 5th- 8:00 (ABC)

Let me preface this column by saying that I generally like most college football commentators on ESPN/ABC.  A lot of people complain about Corso and Holtz’s annoying antics, but I find them generally amusing.  The only problem I begin to have with any of these guys is when they start writing columns during the week.  They need to let real journalists like Ivan Maisel and Pat Forde handle the football writing, and stick to the studio work.  Unfortunately, Rece Davis ignored my advice, and is now on my least favorite commentator list as a result of his analysis on this week’s Gameday kickoff column.  The article can be found here: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/notebook?page=gamedayKickoff098

Davis begins by making the commonly-heard, completely illogical argument that college football regular season is a playoff.  The obvious counter to this that in playoff system, the teams that keep winning play each other until them meet to decide a champion; in college football, they don’t.   Rece then criticizes a playoff system by saying that no matter how many teams you involve someone always gets left out.  He states that currently LSU would be left out of an 8-team playoff and Houston would get left out of a 16 team playoff.  My response is would anyone really cry foul if either of those teams didn’t have a chance to play for the national title?  LSU’s offense is about on par with a Pop Warner squad and the same would go for Houston’s defense.  Besides, there is a bubble in the big dance, and no one talks about how unjust the NCAA Tourney is just because some team that finishes 7th in the ACC doesn’t make the field of 65.

At this point in his analysis, Davis is being a complete moron, which might be excusable, if he didn’t take things to the next level and start criticizing the new Playoff PAC.  Here’s Davis’ quote:  “By the way, I wouldn’t contribute to that new Playoff Action Committee’s fundraising efforts. Your money would be better spent investing in the Heene family’s new reality show Little Falcon’s Hot Air Balloon Hoaxes.’ Then again, that Playoff Action Committee likely will have the most hot air this side of Falcon’s balloon.”  I take it that the thought of legitimate political pressure on the BCS scares Rece and other anti-playoff wackos.  He has absolutely no basis in questioning the legitimacy or future success of the Playoff PAC.  Quite simply, ESPN gives him a horn to toot, and he chose to use to make a low-blow against a political cause that he dislikes.  Maybe he should team up with Michael Moore to make a movie called ”Bowling for the BCS” or something like that.

This may be the greatest political grassroots organization ever to be created.  For all those who support the greatest cause in the history of sports, please join and contribute to this group.

http://www.playoffpac.com/

Here are some other sites that provide more info about it:

http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=294&sid=8366750

http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/playoff-proponents-pac-pushes-political-priorities-26321

I was 4 of 7 again in my upset picks last week, not including my incredible longshot prediction that Texas Tech would win in Lincoln.  So far the double digit longshot I have chosen each week has covered every time and actually won straight up 4 times.  This week I’m not crazy about a lot of the dogs, but here are six for you to consider along with my lights out double-digit longshot pick.  These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.

Florida State (+2.5) vs. North Carolina- There is too much pressure on Bobby for his team to go and lay another egg.  The offense actually looked decent against Georgia Tech, and I think Bowden will start winning some games down the stretch to ensure that he’s back in 2010.

Eastern Michigan (+2.5) vs. Ball State- Based on season results, the Cardinals are clearly the better football team, as EMU has been clobbered in pretty much every game.  But when the opposing coach comes in with a 35 game winless streak spanning over 2 decades, like Ball State’s Stan Parrish, you definitely have to give the Eagles a shot at winning this one.

Wake Forest (+3.0) vs. Navy- I try not to be a homer on this blog, but I do think the Demon Deacons should win in Annapolis.  It’s absolute must win game for Wake, and they’ve had more exposure to Navy’s triple option than any other team in the country, as they’ve played them annually for 4 seasons and matched up against them in last year’s Eagle Bank Bowl.  This Deacons squad is weaker defensively than in years past, but they are well overdue to win a big game on the road.

Temple (+3.0) vs. Toledo- The Owls are on fire right now, winning 4 straight and drawing ever closer to their first bowl bid in 30 years.  The Rockets have been hit or miss depending on the week, as they got manhandled by Western Michigan at home 2 weeks ago but then beat NIU last week.  The Rockets may have the advantage playing at home, but never count out a team playing inspired football with the purpose of accomplishing something historic.

Colorado (+4.5) vs. Kansas State- This is kind of a strange matchup, as both teams have looked abysmal all year until they registered huge wins last Saturday.  However, the Buffs do have the more impressive victory of the two, as they knocked off a top 25 squad in Kansas, and with their QB issues now straighted out, I think you’ll see a different Colorado team from here on out.

Maryland (+6.0) vs. Duke- Duke should probably win here, but there just something about Duke as a favorite in an ACC game that concerns me.  They’ve only been in this situation twice in the past five years (record: 1-1), so you can’t be quite sure how they’ll act when not playing the role of the spoiler.

Longshot of the Week: Washington (+10.0) vs. Oregon- See analysis for this game in my weekly picks entry below.

Here are my “prestigious” picks for the week  ordered from most confident to least confident.   Please feel free to comment.

Pick # 1: Iowa (-1.0) vs. Michigan State- Not sure if I can call this an absolute “lock of the week”, as Michigan State does have a chance to win this game.  However, I’m going to stick with the same winning logic I used for last week’s Iowa game.  Quote from my Week 6 Upsets blog entry: “General rule: Pick the top ten team when they are playing as a dog against an unranked team, regardless of where the game is being played.  The rule applies here, and I’m sticking to it.”  The Hawkeyes aren’t quite a dog against the Spartans, but they’re close enough.  It should also be noted that despite my stellar record in picking games throughout the season, my most confident pick of the week hasn’t been particularly great.  Therefore, don’t load up on the Hawkeyes just becuase they are listed here at # 1. 

Pick # 2: Texas Tech (-21.5) vs. Texas A & M- Let’s do the math here.  Two weeks ago, Texas Tech pounded Kansas State by a score of 66-14.  Last week, Kansas State dismantled Texas A & M 62-14.  Using that logic then Texas Tech should win this game by exactly 100 points, especially since they are playing at home. 

Pick # 3: Central Florida (-10.0) vs. Rice- Until the Owls play a team close, they seem like a safe team to bet against any time the line is under 2 Tds.  UCF is 0-2 on the road this year, but they gave both ECU (who walloped Rice last week) and Southern Miss close games.  Expect the Knights to roll here.

Pick # 4: Marshall (-7.0) vs. UAB- I’ve had a great record picking C-USA games this year (5-0 in one of my pools), so here’s another game from there I like.  Marshall’s only loss at home this year was a heartbreaking defeat to solid ECU squad, and the Blazers are winless on the road failing to finish within single-digits of any of their opponents. 

Pick # 5: UNLV (Pick) vs. New Mexico- This line started at 3.5 and has somehow slid down to a pick’em.  Thus, I’d like to provide another simple rule which is that it’s typically smart to bet against an 0-6 team when they are not an underdog.  The Lobos are in turmoil right now with a suspended coach and a squad that has gotten blownout in almost every game they’ve played.  On the other hand, UNLV has looked alright at times beating Hawaii and leading Oregon State until the final minute of the 4th quarter.  The Rebels are winless on the road, but they almost beat Wyoming in Laramie, a place where New Mexico got thumped.  UNLV will win this one.

Pick # 6: Alabama (-14.5) vs. Tennessee- A national powerhouse playing with something to prove at home against a significantly weaker opponent equals blowout city.

Pick # 7: Cincinnati (-18.0) vs. Louisville- See Comment for Pick # 6.  You should notice a trend by now that this is a week where I like a lot of teams who are giving points.  That might be why I’m not especially excited about this Saturday’s games.  I envision many powerhours winning by large margins.  The exceptions to this are seen below in picks 8-10. (Unfortunately, only of these 3 games is televised in my area).

Pick # 8: Oregon State (+21.0) vs. Southern Cal- We all know about the troubles the Trojans have had against the Beavers, and even though this matchup will be in L.A., I don’t think USC has the firepower to beat a squad as talented as the Beavers by more than 3 TDs.  In fact, I honestly believe Oregon State is better than Notre Dame, so Southern Cal better come ready to play on Saturday night if they don’t want this game to come right down to the wire like last week’s. 

Pick # 9: Mississippi State (+23.0) vs. Florida- Call me crazy but does this game have the same kind of feel as the USC-Washington game earlier this season?  Both matchups involved a huge home underdog led by a coach who previously worked as an offensive coordinator for the powerhouse opponent.  Not sure if Mullen has the talent to outsmart his old team like Sarkisian did, but I just get an eerie feeling when I look at this game.  Don’t think the Bulldogs necessarily win, but I think a rowdy Starkville crowd will keep them in it for a while.

Pick # 10: Washington (+10.0) vs. Oregon- No team has had a greater disparity between their play at home and away this year than the Huskies.  It’s almost like the local NFL Seahawks have suited up for them  in Seattle, where they are 3-0  with a win over USC and a close loss to LSU, but then they  field a high school squad for their road games (0-3 record with all losses coming to teams ranked outside the top 25).  Well, lucky for the Huskies, this one is at home, where they haven’t got beat by double digits all year.  If USC or LSU couldn’t blow them out in Seattle, I have no reason to believe Oregon will.  In fact, if the Ducks are in the least bit looking ahead to next week’s matchup against Southern Cal, then I’m calling for an upset here.      

Last Week’s Record: 7-3, Overall Record 41-29 (He’s on Fire!)

The Week 7 CFRA poll is here.  Here are a few highlights: as Southern Cal climbs back up to # 4 in the AP and Coaches polls, the researchers in our association still remember that they lost to Washington several weeks back.  As a result, we still have five unbeaten teams ahead of the Trojans.  Florida is still holding on to the # 1 spot, but Bama is closing in just like you see in the other polls and the BCS.  And speaking of the devil, I found it interesting that the CFRA rankings more accurately reflect the BCS standings than the actual polls factored into it.  Makes me wonder if someone behind closed doors isn’t reading this poll and factoring it into the BCS computer rankings.  Furthermore, for the  second straight week the only tie we have is for the # 11 spot.  Kinda odd.  At any rate, here are this week’s rankings:

1.  Florida (6)- 221 points

2.  Alabama (3)- 217 points

3.  Texas- 210 points

4.  Boise State- 190 points

5.  Cincinnati- 183 points

6.  Southern Cal- 174 points

7.  TCU- 167 points

8.  Iowa- 166 points

9.  LSU- 148 points

10.  Miami- 138 points

11.  Penn State- 123 points

11.  Oklahoma State- 123 points

13.  Oregon- 114 points

14.  Georgia Tech- 113 points

15.  Virginia Tech- 99 points

16.  Houston- 87 points

17.  Brigham Young- 86 points

18.  Ohio State- 67 points

19.  Utah- 56 points

20.  Pittsburgh- 55 points

21.  Kansas- 40 points

22.  West Virginia- 36 points

23.  Texas Tech- 23 points

24.  Oklahoma- 22 points

25.  South Florida- 18 points

Others Receiving Votes: Ole Miss 12, South Carolina 11, Central Michigan 10, Idaho 6, Wisconsin 5, Nebraska 3, Michigan 1, Arizona 1

Dropped Out: Nebraska 17, Auburn 24, Ole Miss 25

Teams Ranked Higher in CFRA than BCS, AP, Coaches: Oklahoma State (11), Houston (16), Oklahoma (24), South Florida (25).

Teams Ranked Lower in CFRA than BCS, AP, Coaches: Georgia Tech (14), Brigham Young (17), South Carolina (NR).

Teams Ranked Exactly the Same in All 3 Major Human Polls (AP, CFRA, Coaches):  Texas (3), Virginia Tech (15), West Virginia (22).

Good Thoughts:

1.  Idaho- This team has been putting a smile to my face every Saturday this month.  They are 6-1 now, and I actually put them in my top 25 this week.  The preseason odds of that happening were probably equivalent to Wake Forest winning the national title, as I had the Vandals ranked 118th in my college football preview guide.  If you want additional perspective on how far they’ve come, think about this: they were actually 3 points underdogs to New Mexico State in their season opener.  The Vandals already have enough wins to be bowl eligible, but they aren’t guaranteed a bid yet.  In fact, a 6-6 Idaho squad that dropped its last 5 would probably be a less than attractive bowl candidate.  Therefore, they need to get one more win, and unfortuantely, they may be dogs in their next 4 games.  The finale against Utah State will be huge. 

 2.  Other Surprise Bowl Teams- Besides Idaho, there are a number of teams who either haven’t gotten to a bowl in a long time or weren’t expected to make bowl this year that have a legitimate shot at playing football in late December or Januray .  I’ve broken these suprise teams down into the following 3 categories: Likely bowl teams, Possible bowl teams, Longshot bowl teams.  See the full analysis below with the teams ordered based on the likelihood they will make a bowl.

Likely Suprise Bowl Teams:  (1) Boston College (Record: 5-2; Odds of bowl eligibility: 90%; Outlook: It was supposed to be a major rebuilding year in Chestnut Hill, but the Eagles now have a great chance of finding themselves in a bowl game.  They have no guarnteed Ws left on the schedule but they should be able to win either at Maryald or UVA), (2) Temple (Record: 4-2; Odds of bowl eligibility: 87%; Outlook: The Owls haven’t bowled since 1974, but they should get wins versus Kent State, Miami-OH, and at Akron), (3) Kentucky (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 75%; Outlook: After their huge win over Auburn, a surprise bowl game for the Cats is in sight.  In fact, they should or could win every game on the rest of their schedule), (4) UL-Monroe (Record: 4-2; Odds of bowl eligibility: 65%; Outlook: They’ll probably need to get 7 wins from the Sun Belt to become bowl eligible, but they should beat North Texas, WKU, and UL-Lafayette to reach their first ever bowl game), (5) UCLA (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 64%; Outlook:  They may drop their next 2, but they should win the following 3 to reach the 6-win mark).

Possible Surprise Bowl Teams:  (6) Tennessee (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 60%; Outlook: Will probably have to beat Kentucky for the 26th straight year to get into a bowl game.  There will be a lot of pressure on Kiffin not to end their win streak versus the Cats, especially if bowl eligibility is on the line.), (7) SMU (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 55%; Outlook: The Mustangs haven’t bowled since receiving the death penalty, but they could breakthrough this season.  There is no reason they can’t get to 6 wins with homes against Rice, UTEP, and Tulane still on the schedule), (8) Indiana (Record: 4-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 52%; Outlook: Have winnable home games against Wisconsin and Purdue and could win on the road next week versus Northwestern.  They’ll need 2 of those 3), (9) Wake Forest (Record: 4-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 50%; Outlook: Must win next week at Navy and then will have to beat either FSU or Duke), (10) Kansas State (Record: 4-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 48%; Outlook: As bad as the Big 12 North is, the Wildcats, who lost at UL-Lafayette, might sneak into a bowl game.  Must beat Mizzou and Colorado at home), (11) UL-Lafayette (Record: 4-2; Odds of bowl eligibility: 42%; Outlook: The Ragin’ Cajuns’ surprise early season victory over KSU has catapulted them off to a great start, as their only losses are on the road to Nebraska and LSU.  Their November 21st matchup with rival UL-Monroe could determine which team will play in its first ever bowl game), (12) Iowa State (Record: 4-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 40%; Outlook: Best chances at wins are at Texas A & M and against Colorado.  The Cyclones may need both of them.).

Longshot Surprise Bowl Teams: (13) Arizona State (Record: 4-2; Odds of bowl eligibility: 36%; Outlook: Next week’s game at Stanford could be a bowl elimination game for both teams), (14) Stanford (Record: 4-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 35%; Outlook: Even if they can beat ASU next Saturday, I don’t know where their 6th win is going to come from), (15) Virginia (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 25%; Outlook: Despite their hot start in conference play, the Cavs remaining schedule is brutal, as they will be dogs in every game except one), (16) Washington (Record: 3-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 22%; Outlook: Will have to win a game on the road to get to 6 wins, and they haven’t done that since Nov. 3, 2007), (17) Duke (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 18%; Outlook: They’ve alternated winnes and losses throughout the season so far, but they won’t be able to do that as the schedule heats up.  Must beat MD and Wake at home and pray for a 6th win to come from somewhere), (18) Mississippi State (Record: 3-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 8%; Outlook: They must win at Kentucky and Arkansas, and then shock the world by beating either Florida, Bama, or Ole Miss in Starkville).

So there you have it.  I’m interested to see how my projections stand up as the season progresses.

3.  Late night excitement-  For the second week in the row, the insomniancs of the sports world were rewarded with a stunning finish to the FSN late night Pac-10 game.   After last week’s “immaculate interception” by Washington, the Huskies lost in just as dramatic of fashion, as Arizona State scored on a last minute QB bomb.

Bad Thoughts:

1.  SEC Referees-  The most notorious officiating conference in both football and basketball was up to its usual antics on Saturday, by advertently helping the Gators preserve their national title hopes.  Needing a drive late in the 4th quarter to stay in the game, several controversial penalties (including a horrible  pass interefence and a mysterious unnecessary roughness penalty) helped Florida march right down the field for the tying score. 

2.  Southern Cal- This team is ranked 4th in the both polls now, which is exactly where it would be if it had beaten Washington instead of losing to them.  Are you no longer penalized for losing games in college football?  Glad to see the BCS has them 7th, but unfortunately, a win over Oregon on Halloween will likely boost their computer ranking enough catapult them ahead of Boise, Cincy, and Iowa.  I swear if this team makes the title game this year, then I may organize some kind of public protest outside the title game. 

3.  Next week’s games- Not a whole lot on next Saturday’s docket to look forward to.  All of the major national title contenders should win easily, and the only matchup of ranked teams is between BYU and TCU.  That also begs the question of if ESPN Gameday has ever been to the site of a game televised on Versus?  The following weekend has some great games (Oregon-USC, Florida-UGA, and Texas-OK St.), but unfortuantely you’ll have to cancel your Halloween plans to see them.

I was 4 for 7 in my upset picks last week with another close call on the longshot game.  Not too shabby I’d say.  This week there are actually lots of dogs I like, many of which are playing at home.  These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange. 

Indiana (+2.0) vs. Illinois- The Hoosiers have definitely lost a lot of their swagger ever since they got screwed out of a victory at Michigan.  However, they are playing at home against an Illini squad that has gotten blown out in every conference game they’ve played so far. 

Florida Atlantic (+2.0) vs. North Texas- See my analysis on this game in my picks of the week entry below.

Iowa (+3.0) vs. Wisconsin- See my analysis on this game in my picks of the week entry below.

Georgia Tech (+3.0) vs. Virginia Tech- Until the Hokies win a big game on the road, then I’m not buying all the VT hype.  So far, their only two games away from Blacksburg have resulted in a loss to Bama and a scare by Duke. 

Maryland (+3.5) vs. Virginia- Both of these teams looked like two of the worst in all of the BCS conferences a couple of weeks ago.  Now, after Maryland’s upset of Clemson and UVA’s win at UNC, these teams have their sights set on a bowl game.  Both teams also have head coaches sitting squarely on the hot seat.  Groh probably needs this one more, but I’ve got to go with the Terps since they’re playing at home.

UCLA (+3.5) vs. Cal- There may not be a more unpredictable game in the country than this one.  Both of these teams, especially the Golden Bears, have looked amazing in some games and horrible in others.  No one knows how Cal will react after their two disgraceful losses to Oregon and USC, but I certainly wouldn’t want to try to resurrect my season by going into the Rose Bowl and playing a solid Bruins team.

South Florida (+3.0) vs. Cincinnati- We’ve seen this story before: Leavitt’s upstart Bulls win a big weekday home game against a top 10 Big East opponent and start getting national championship hype as a result.  I think we may be able to add another chapter to this tale tomorrow night, as USF probably has the most underrated defense in the country.

Longshot of the Week: Texas Tech (+10.5) vs. Nebraska- I’m really surprised this line has shot up from 6.5 to 10.5 throughout the week.  We all know that Leach’s squad always plays better in the underdog role, and other than Nebraska’s 2nd quarter vs. Virginia Tech and 4th quarter last week vs. Missouri, they haven’t proven a lot.

Here are my picks for the week  in order of most confident to least confident.  Please feel free to comment.

Pick # 1: Texas (-3.5) vs. Oklahoma- Does someone know something I don’t know about this game?  Texas has breezed through their schedule so far looking like a national title contender, and OU has alredy dropped two games.  I know Bradford is back at QB, but he’s only played one full game this year, and the loss of Jermaine Gresham has actually hurt them more.   I expect the Sooners to hang around for a bit, but Texas wins this game by over a TD.

Pick # 2: Boston College (-2.5) vs. NC State- If you asked me to predict this game in the preseason, I would say the Pack would win by 3 or 4 TDs.  However, NC State is not the team we thought they would be.  Russell Wilson has failed to live up to the hype, and their defense is absolutely horrid (note: never hire an assistant coach from Kentucky as your defensive coordinator).  On the other hand, BC has looked surprisingly good at home.  I got to think the Eagles by a TD or more here.

Pick # 3: Pittsburgh (-3.0) vs. Rutgers- The Wannstaches almost experienced their annual letdown loss  last week, but they found a way to win at home.  I think they are still capable of losing one or more games that they shouldn’t, but I don’t think it will be against Rutgers.  I envision the Knights battling it out with Louisville and Syracuse in the Big East cellar, now that they are finally into conference play.

Pick # 4: Georgia (-7.5) vs. Vandy- I can’t belive Richt really could be on the hot seat?  He needs a huge statement win to dispel those rumors, and there is no better team to do that to then Vandy who lost to Army on Saturday.  Expect the Dawgs to win big here, even though they’ve failed to cover the last 2 weeks after I picked them to do so.  I think the third time will be the charm.

Pick # 5: UL-Lafayette (-7.5) vs. Western Kentucky- Like I said last week, until the Hilltoppers are competitive against a 1-A opponent then I’ll keep betting against them.  They haven’t played a team to within 15 points since joining the Sun Belt, so why do I have reason to believe they will do so on Saturday.

Pick # 6: Iowa (+3.0) vs. Wisconsin- General rule: Pick the top ten team when they are playing as a dog against an unranked team, regardless of where the game is being played.  The rule applies here, and I’m sticking to it.

Pick # 7: South Carolina (+17.0) vs. Alabama- Spurrier always gets his team up for big games, and I’m sure he’s chomping at the bit to get a chance to play a Bama team that he’s yet to encounter, since he’s been at Carolina.  He also hasn’t had a matchup against Saban since he left Florida.  The Gamecocks will keep this one close for a while, but their defense will eventually yield to Bama’s powerful running game.  Don’t see the Tide winning this one by more than 2 TDs though.

Pick # 8: Florida Atlantic (+2.5) vs. North Texas- FAU is winless and not as good as their preseason rankings indicated, but they have been competitive in their last 3, including playing South Carolina very tight until late in the 3rd quarter.  I think they finally breakthough with a win against a Mean Green squad who hasn’t won a conference game since exactly 2 years ago.

Pick # 9: Minnesota (+16.5) vs. Penn State- The Lions’ best win so far is against Illinois, so going off of that I don’t see why the Gophers, who are 2-0 on the road this year, can’t hang around for a while in Happy Valley.

Pick # 10: Buffalo (-9.5) vs. Akron- The Bulls definitely aren’t the same team as the 2008 MAC Champs squad, but Akron have been horrible this year so far, failing to win a game against a 1-A opponent.  The Bulls win here by double digits.

Last Week’s Record: 7-3, Overall Record 34-26 (Still going strong)

The Week 6 CFRA poll is ready to be released to the public.  Here are few highlights:  for the first time since this poll was reborn earlier this year, a team other than Florida has landed a first place first.  Also, the voters in this poll, unlike those in the AP and Coahces, are sticking to their guns in regard to Boise State and not moving teams like Southern Cal and Virginia Tech ahead of the Broncos for no apparent reason.  Here are this week’s rankings:

1.  Florida (7)- 199 points

2.  Alabama (1)- 189 points

3.  Texas- 188 points

4.  Boise State- 169 points

5.  Virginia Tech- 157 points

6.  Southern Cal- 152 points

7.  Cincinnati- 146 points

8.  TCU- 143 points

9.  Ohio State- 134 points

10.  Iowa- 119 points

11.  Kansas- 106 points

11.  LSU- 106 points

13.  Miami- 105 points

14.  Penn State- 95 points

15.  Oklahoma State- 89 points

16.  Oregon- 80 points

17.  Nebraska- 70 points

18.  Georgia Tech- 60 points

19.  Brigham Young- 55 points

20.  Oklahoma- 50 points

21.  South Florida- 49 points

22.  South Carolina- 43 points

23.  Houston- 27 points

24.  Auburn- 14 points

25.  Ole Miss- 13 points

Others Receiving Votes:  Notre Dame 12, Utah, 11, Missouri 7, Michigan 4, Wisconsin 3, Pittsburgh 2, Wake Forest 1, West Virginia 1, Arkansas 1

Dropped Out:  Missouri 20, Wisconsin 22

Major discrepancies with AP/Coaches Polls: Teams ranked at least 4 or spots higher in CFRA- Kansas (11); Teams ranked 4 or more sports lower in CFRA- None .

Teams Ranked Exactly the Same in All 3 Polls (AP, CFRA, Coaches):  Florida (1), South Florida (21), South Carolina (22), Houston (23),

Good Thoughts:

1.  Idaho- Yes, I know this was my # 1 good thought last week, but with each victory this team gets one step closer to becoming the most surprising bowl game participant of all-time.  I think right now there is about a 65% chance of them getting to one.  They have Hawaii at home next week, which they should win handily.  That will give me them 6 wins, but you’d have to think that it’s going to take 7 wins for a WAC team to go bowling.  The 4 games after that are brutal, and the Vandals will most likely be dogs in all of them.  They do, however, end that season with Utah State at home, which will be a huge, winnable game that will most likely determine Idaho’s postseason fate.

2.  Shoes and uprights-  The two most crazy and exciting finishes of the year this season in college football came this past Saturday in a couple of “off the radar games” that only digital cable/satellite users could see.  Vandy and Army each banked in clutch field goals off the left upright in their classic at West Point, and Washington got an unbeliveable pick 6 off of a receiver’s shoe to win in Seattle.  Please watch highlights of these games if you haven’t seen them already.  Shoe interception: http://msn.foxsports.com/video/shows/pac10.  Bank shot field goals: http://vucommodores.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/101109aaa.html.

3.  Temple- Like Idaho, this is another team that won this wekeend to keep has their improbable run at a bowl game going.  A bowl bid would actually mean a more to Temple because they haven’t gone bowling since 1979.   The Owls should win their remaining home games, which will give them 6 wins.  If, however, they end up needing 7 victories for a bid, then they’ll need to win at Akron on November 13th. 

Bad Thoughts:

1.  Unreasonable expectations- As a Wake Forest and South Carolina fan, I’ve heard a lot of my friends start talking about division/conference championships after each team’s last few victories.  However, the fans of both of these squads need to be more worried about getting 6 victories and to a bowl game then anything else.  The Deacons and Gamecocks have so far attained  good conference records by rolling over the bottom-dwellers of their respective leagues, but that will all change this week as both teams have the potential to get annihilated on the road next Saturday (Wake at Clemson, SC at Bama).  In fact, neither team has an automatic W left on their schedule, so bowl eligibility is not a lock for either squad.  On a similar note, I saw a couple of bowl projection sites putting Duke in a bowl game.  I recognize their win at NC State was impressive, but one look at their remaining schedule and it becomes clear that the odds of the Devils making a bowl are about the same as New Mexico going to the BCS title game. 

2.  Pollsters- Why does Boise State keep dropping for no reason?  Both Boise and Southern Cal were idle on Saturday, yet somehow on Sunday the Trojans impressed the pollsters enough to jump the Bronocos in the coaches poll.  This is why college football’s reliance on polls to determine national championships is ludicrous.  Also, South Florida is still ranked way too low for a BCS squad that is still unbeaten after Week 6.

3.  Bobby Bowden- No commentary needed.  It’s just a sad, sad situation.