Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist

Good Thoughts:

1.  Idaho- This team has been putting a smile to my face every Saturday this month.  They are 6-1 now, and I actually put them in my top 25 this week.  The preseason odds of that happening were probably equivalent to Wake Forest winning the national title, as I had the Vandals ranked 118th in my college football preview guide.  If you want additional perspective on how far they’ve come, think about this: they were actually 3 points underdogs to New Mexico State in their season opener.  The Vandals already have enough wins to be bowl eligible, but they aren’t guaranteed a bid yet.  In fact, a 6-6 Idaho squad that dropped its last 5 would probably be a less than attractive bowl candidate.  Therefore, they need to get one more win, and unfortuantely, they may be dogs in their next 4 games.  The finale against Utah State will be huge. 

 2.  Other Surprise Bowl Teams- Besides Idaho, there are a number of teams who either haven’t gotten to a bowl in a long time or weren’t expected to make bowl this year that have a legitimate shot at playing football in late December or Januray .  I’ve broken these suprise teams down into the following 3 categories: Likely bowl teams, Possible bowl teams, Longshot bowl teams.  See the full analysis below with the teams ordered based on the likelihood they will make a bowl.

Likely Suprise Bowl Teams:  (1) Boston College (Record: 5-2; Odds of bowl eligibility: 90%; Outlook: It was supposed to be a major rebuilding year in Chestnut Hill, but the Eagles now have a great chance of finding themselves in a bowl game.  They have no guarnteed Ws left on the schedule but they should be able to win either at Maryald or UVA), (2) Temple (Record: 4-2; Odds of bowl eligibility: 87%; Outlook: The Owls haven’t bowled since 1974, but they should get wins versus Kent State, Miami-OH, and at Akron), (3) Kentucky (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 75%; Outlook: After their huge win over Auburn, a surprise bowl game for the Cats is in sight.  In fact, they should or could win every game on the rest of their schedule), (4) UL-Monroe (Record: 4-2; Odds of bowl eligibility: 65%; Outlook: They’ll probably need to get 7 wins from the Sun Belt to become bowl eligible, but they should beat North Texas, WKU, and UL-Lafayette to reach their first ever bowl game), (5) UCLA (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 64%; Outlook:  They may drop their next 2, but they should win the following 3 to reach the 6-win mark).

Possible Surprise Bowl Teams:  (6) Tennessee (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 60%; Outlook: Will probably have to beat Kentucky for the 26th straight year to get into a bowl game.  There will be a lot of pressure on Kiffin not to end their win streak versus the Cats, especially if bowl eligibility is on the line.), (7) SMU (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 55%; Outlook: The Mustangs haven’t bowled since receiving the death penalty, but they could breakthrough this season.  There is no reason they can’t get to 6 wins with homes against Rice, UTEP, and Tulane still on the schedule), (8) Indiana (Record: 4-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 52%; Outlook: Have winnable home games against Wisconsin and Purdue and could win on the road next week versus Northwestern.  They’ll need 2 of those 3), (9) Wake Forest (Record: 4-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 50%; Outlook: Must win next week at Navy and then will have to beat either FSU or Duke), (10) Kansas State (Record: 4-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 48%; Outlook: As bad as the Big 12 North is, the Wildcats, who lost at UL-Lafayette, might sneak into a bowl game.  Must beat Mizzou and Colorado at home), (11) UL-Lafayette (Record: 4-2; Odds of bowl eligibility: 42%; Outlook: The Ragin’ Cajuns’ surprise early season victory over KSU has catapulted them off to a great start, as their only losses are on the road to Nebraska and LSU.  Their November 21st matchup with rival UL-Monroe could determine which team will play in its first ever bowl game), (12) Iowa State (Record: 4-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 40%; Outlook: Best chances at wins are at Texas A & M and against Colorado.  The Cyclones may need both of them.).

Longshot Surprise Bowl Teams: (13) Arizona State (Record: 4-2; Odds of bowl eligibility: 36%; Outlook: Next week’s game at Stanford could be a bowl elimination game for both teams), (14) Stanford (Record: 4-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 35%; Outlook: Even if they can beat ASU next Saturday, I don’t know where their 6th win is going to come from), (15) Virginia (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 25%; Outlook: Despite their hot start in conference play, the Cavs remaining schedule is brutal, as they will be dogs in every game except one), (16) Washington (Record: 3-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 22%; Outlook: Will have to win a game on the road to get to 6 wins, and they haven’t done that since Nov. 3, 2007), (17) Duke (Record: 3-3; Odds of bowl eligibility: 18%; Outlook: They’ve alternated winnes and losses throughout the season so far, but they won’t be able to do that as the schedule heats up.  Must beat MD and Wake at home and pray for a 6th win to come from somewhere), (18) Mississippi State (Record: 3-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 8%; Outlook: They must win at Kentucky and Arkansas, and then shock the world by beating either Florida, Bama, or Ole Miss in Starkville).

So there you have it.  I’m interested to see how my projections stand up as the season progresses.

3.  Late night excitement-  For the second week in the row, the insomniancs of the sports world were rewarded with a stunning finish to the FSN late night Pac-10 game.   After last week’s “immaculate interception” by Washington, the Huskies lost in just as dramatic of fashion, as Arizona State scored on a last minute QB bomb.

Bad Thoughts:

1.  SEC Referees-  The most notorious officiating conference in both football and basketball was up to its usual antics on Saturday, by advertently helping the Gators preserve their national title hopes.  Needing a drive late in the 4th quarter to stay in the game, several controversial penalties (including a horrible  pass interefence and a mysterious unnecessary roughness penalty) helped Florida march right down the field for the tying score. 

2.  Southern Cal- This team is ranked 4th in the both polls now, which is exactly where it would be if it had beaten Washington instead of losing to them.  Are you no longer penalized for losing games in college football?  Glad to see the BCS has them 7th, but unfortunately, a win over Oregon on Halloween will likely boost their computer ranking enough catapult them ahead of Boise, Cincy, and Iowa.  I swear if this team makes the title game this year, then I may organize some kind of public protest outside the title game. 

3.  Next week’s games- Not a whole lot on next Saturday’s docket to look forward to.  All of the major national title contenders should win easily, and the only matchup of ranked teams is between BYU and TCU.  That also begs the question of if ESPN Gameday has ever been to the site of a game televised on Versus?  The following weekend has some great games (Oregon-USC, Florida-UGA, and Texas-OK St.), but unfortuantely you’ll have to cancel your Halloween plans to see them.