Posted by deaconcat08 on October 21, 2009
Here are my “prestigious” picks for the week ordered from most confident to least confident. Please feel free to comment.
Pick # 1: Iowa (-1.0) vs. Michigan State- Not sure if I can call this an absolute “lock of the week”, as Michigan State does have a chance to win this game. However, I’m going to stick with the same winning logic I used for last week’s Iowa game. Quote from my Week 6 Upsets blog entry: “General rule: Pick the top ten team when they are playing as a dog against an unranked team, regardless of where the game is being played. The rule applies here, and I’m sticking to it.” The Hawkeyes aren’t quite a dog against the Spartans, but they’re close enough. It should also be noted that despite my stellar record in picking games throughout the season, my most confident pick of the week hasn’t been particularly great. Therefore, don’t load up on the Hawkeyes just becuase they are listed here at # 1.
Pick # 2: Texas Tech (-21.5) vs. Texas A & M- Let’s do the math here. Two weeks ago, Texas Tech pounded Kansas State by a score of 66-14. Last week, Kansas State dismantled Texas A & M 62-14. Using that logic then Texas Tech should win this game by exactly 100 points, especially since they are playing at home.
Pick # 3: Central Florida (-10.0) vs. Rice- Until the Owls play a team close, they seem like a safe team to bet against any time the line is under 2 Tds. UCF is 0-2 on the road this year, but they gave both ECU (who walloped Rice last week) and Southern Miss close games. Expect the Knights to roll here.
Pick # 4: Marshall (-7.0) vs. UAB- I’ve had a great record picking C-USA games this year (5-0 in one of my pools), so here’s another game from there I like. Marshall’s only loss at home this year was a heartbreaking defeat to solid ECU squad, and the Blazers are winless on the road failing to finish within single-digits of any of their opponents.
Pick # 5: UNLV (Pick) vs. New Mexico- This line started at 3.5 and has somehow slid down to a pick’em. Thus, I’d like to provide another simple rule which is that it’s typically smart to bet against an 0-6 team when they are not an underdog. The Lobos are in turmoil right now with a suspended coach and a squad that has gotten blownout in almost every game they’ve played. On the other hand, UNLV has looked alright at times beating Hawaii and leading Oregon State until the final minute of the 4th quarter. The Rebels are winless on the road, but they almost beat Wyoming in Laramie, a place where New Mexico got thumped. UNLV will win this one.
Pick # 6: Alabama (-14.5) vs. Tennessee- A national powerhouse playing with something to prove at home against a significantly weaker opponent equals blowout city.
Pick # 7: Cincinnati (-18.0) vs. Louisville- See Comment for Pick # 6. You should notice a trend by now that this is a week where I like a lot of teams who are giving points. That might be why I’m not especially excited about this Saturday’s games. I envision many powerhours winning by large margins. The exceptions to this are seen below in picks 8-10. (Unfortunately, only of these 3 games is televised in my area).
Pick # 8: Oregon State (+21.0) vs. Southern Cal- We all know about the troubles the Trojans have had against the Beavers, and even though this matchup will be in L.A., I don’t think USC has the firepower to beat a squad as talented as the Beavers by more than 3 TDs. In fact, I honestly believe Oregon State is better than Notre Dame, so Southern Cal better come ready to play on Saturday night if they don’t want this game to come right down to the wire like last week’s.
Pick # 9: Mississippi State (+23.0) vs. Florida- Call me crazy but does this game have the same kind of feel as the USC-Washington game earlier this season? Both matchups involved a huge home underdog led by a coach who previously worked as an offensive coordinator for the powerhouse opponent. Not sure if Mullen has the talent to outsmart his old team like Sarkisian did, but I just get an eerie feeling when I look at this game. Don’t think the Bulldogs necessarily win, but I think a rowdy Starkville crowd will keep them in it for a while.
Pick # 10: Washington (+10.0) vs. Oregon- No team has had a greater disparity between their play at home and away this year than the Huskies. It’s almost like the local NFL Seahawks have suited up for them in Seattle, where they are 3-0 with a win over USC and a close loss to LSU, but then they field a high school squad for their road games (0-3 record with all losses coming to teams ranked outside the top 25). Well, lucky for the Huskies, this one is at home, where they haven’t got beat by double digits all year. If USC or LSU couldn’t blow them out in Seattle, I have no reason to believe Oregon will. In fact, if the Ducks are in the least bit looking ahead to next week’s matchup against Southern Cal, then I’m calling for an upset here.
Last Week’s Record: 7-3, Overall Record 41-29 (He’s on Fire!)