Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist

Good Thoughts:

1.  Stan Parrish-  Any head coach who breaks a 35-game losing streak, which originated on October 25, 1986, deserves acknowledgement on every college football column this week.  Congrats Stan!  He was still an awful hire by Ball State though.

2.  Lower-Ranked Unbeatens-  Even though Florida, Texas, and Alabama took care of business this week, the BCS controversy continues to heat up due to  impressive performances by the other four 1-A unbeatens.  While the Gators and Tide had to struggle to win games against vastly inferior opponents, TCU, Iowa, Cincinnati, and Boise State, all had statement wins.  Cincy blew out Louisville without its starting quarterback.  TCU manhandled a 16th-ranked BYU squad on the road.  Boise also won on the road in dominating fashion.  And Iowa made a stunning  drive in the final minute to beat Michigan State, in what many are calling the most exciting finish to a college football game this season.  I’m not saying these teams should pass the USC, Bama, or Texas, but I think these performances should prove that they are superior to all of the one-loss challengers.  Southern Cal seems to be the team who could pass all these guys in the BCS Standings, which would be a travesty given the fact that Portland State held Oregon State to fewer points than the Trojans did on Saturday. 

3.  Bowl Bubble: Teams Improving Odds- Here are some bowl bubble teams who helped their eligibility odds by getting big/surprising wins on Saturday.  Note the “Previous odds of bowl eligibility” statistic” is my determination of each team’s going into this weekend’s games.

• Florida State- Record: 3-4; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 41%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 56%; Outlook: It looked like Bowden was on his way out with a disappointing losing season that would leave his team ineligible for a bowl game for the first time since the mid-1970s.  However, after a huge comeback road win against UNC, FSU now has a good shot at reaching the 6-win mark.  They’ll need to beat NC State and Maryland at home and Wake on the road, which will likely be  a bowl elimination game for both teams.
• Iowa State- Record: 5-3; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 40%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 52%; Outlook: The Cyclones quest for an unfathomable bowl berth got a huge boost with a shocking win over Nebraska, which some are calling the upset of the season so far.  They just need one more win now, and they’ll have good chances to get it next week at Texas A & M and at home  against Colorado on November 14th. 
• Kent State- Record: 4-4; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 22%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 33%; Outlook: My bold preseason prediction that the Flashes would have a breakout year this season is starting to look pretty good.  After back-to-back road victories including Saturday’s upset over Ohio, Kent State has put itself in a position for a bowl game if they can catch some breaks down the stretch.  They may need 7 wins from the MAC to get to a bowl, but they only figure to be a major underdog in one of their remaining games (at Temple).
• Temple- Record: 5-2; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 87%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 95%; Outlook: After their big road victory over Toledo, it looks like a foregone conclusion that Temple will bowl for the first time since 1979.  They only need more win, and I can’t imagine them not getting it two weeks from now when winless Miami-OH comes to town.
• Texas A & M- Record: 4-3; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 37%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 53%; Outlook: I still have no idea how they beat Texas Tech Saturday night, but with the victory, the Aggies may have turned the tide in their downward spiral towards the Big 12 basement.  All of a sudden, a bowl game seems very possible in College Station, as both Iowa State (Oct. 31) and Baylor (Nov. 21) come to town in the upcoming weeks.
• Stanford- Record: 5-3; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 35%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 43%; Outlook:  The Cardinal won a huge bowl elimination game versus ASU to setup a brutal 4 game stretch to end the year.  The good news is that 3 of the games are in Palo Alto.  The bad news is that all four opponents are or have been ranked in the top 20 this season.  Their best chances at wins are at home versus Cal and Notre Dame to end the season, and even though I don’t think they’ll win either game, Jim Harbaugh is def. capable of pulling a surprise. 

Bad Thoughts:

1.  Troublemakers- One thing that I’ve always found odd about college football is how some teams seem to always play particularly well or particularly bad against certain opponents.  Even as players and coaches change from year-to-year and even decade-to-decade, the phenomenon, where particular teams give certain superior opponents all kinds of trouble, continues.  Examples of this were seen all across the country on Saturday, as several teams were pushed to the limits or upset by a squad that they have had surprisingly bad results with over the years.  South Carolina squeaked by their nemesis Vandy.  Notre Dame almost lost to BC for the 7th straight time.  Alabama needed a big play to beat Tennessee, who has crushed the dreams of the Tide in years past.  Florida struggled in Starkville, where they hadn’t won since 1985.  Wake Forest lost to Navy for the second straight year, and  Oregon State, as usual, gave USC all it could handle.  College football sure is a strange game…

2.  Poor coaching decisions-  Usually when the phrase “what a bad call” has been uttered this college football season, it has applied to the numerous questionable calls made by officials in big games.  However, this Saturday, the phrase better described some horrible play calls made by coaches in several big games. 

• Jim Grobe/Steed Lobotzke- We’ll start with my poor Demon Deacons, who after not being able to run the ball the entire year, decide to put it on the ground the whole game against Navy’s strong run defense.  The strategy resulted in zero touchdowns through the first 3 quarters.  Then, exactly as we did in the BC game, we started successfully moving the ball through the air late in the game.  However, it was too little, too late, as a holding call against our horrible offensive line, cost us a chance to make a game-tying score.  Now someone please explain to me why we can’t start out passing to setup the run?  LOBO’S GOT TO GO!!!
• Dan Mullen- As bright as this guy seems, this is the second upset bid this year he’s blown by making some stupid late-game decisions.  Against LSU, on 3rd and goal from the inch line, he chose to run a play action pass on 3rd Down and some kind of misdirection draw on 4th Down instead of just sneaking it in for the winning score.  The Bulldogs didn’t come close to scoring on either play, and LSU came out of Starkville with a win.  On Saturday, Miss. State was right in the thick of things with the Florida Gators until Mullen inexplicably called a fake punt inside his own 20 yard line.  The play failed miserably, and immediately thereafter, Florida marched in for a short TD which ultimately ended the Bulldogs’ upset bid.
• Lane Kiffin- I will say that Lane has brought his A-game in the two toughest games anyone has played this season.  Only the Vols have had to play on the road against both the # 1 and # 2 team in the nation, and Tennessee took both teams right down to the wire.  However, in Saturday’s final drive, Kiffin setup for the winning field goal way, way too early.  With nearly 45 seconds left, the Vols elected to go ahead and put the ball in the middle of the field in preparation for a long field goal attempt from a kicker who had struggled all day.  I know they were out of timeouts, but the way Crompton was throwing the ball, he could have easily completed a couple of out-routes which would have setup a much easier field goal or even a touchdown for the Vols.

3.  Bowl Bubble: Teams Hurting their Bowl Chances- Here are some bowl bubble teams who hurt their eligibility odds by picking up bad/disappointing losses on Saturday.  Note the “Previous odds of bowl eligibility” statistic” is my determination of each team’s going into this weekend’s games.

• Arizona State- Record: 4-3; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 36%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 14%; Outlook:  The Sun Devils’ bowl hopes just went from bad to worse with their loss at Stanford.  Even though they currently have a winning record, they will almost certainly be a dog in all of their final 5 games.
• Indiana- Record: 4-4; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 52%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 30%; Outlook: The Hoosiers blew a huge second half lead to Northwestern, which will likely cost them a spot in a bowl game.  They now must win home games against both Wisconsin and Purdue.
• UL-Lafayette- Record: 4-3; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 42%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 29%; Outlook: So sad to see the Ragin’ Cajuns’ quest at their first bowl game take a huge hit by getting walloped at home by 1-4 Florida Atlantic.  They still have winnable games against FIU and rival UL-Monore, but I don’t think 6 wins will be enough to get a bowl berth out of the Sun Belt.
• Wake Forest- Record: 4-4; Previous odds of bowl eligibility: 50%; New odds of bowl eligibility: 18%; Outlook: Due to a painful loss to Navy, who did not even attempt a pass in the game, the Deacons will need to win their last two (vs. FSU, at Duke) to reach the 6-win mark.