Week 9 College Football Picks of the Week
Posted by deaconcat08 on October 28, 2009
After another impressive week 7-3, Ive extended my record to 48-32 on the season. Barring a late-season collapse, I will likely finish ahead of any “betting service” that you might go to for advice on weekly picks. Still haven’t had a bad week, and here’s hoping that this isn’t the first. The spreads are based on the current lines according to the Worst Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.
Pick # 1: Miami-FL (-7.0) vs. Wake Forest- I hate to do this against my alma mater, but judging by how bad Wake has played in the last few weeks, it’s hard not to think they will get blown out here, even at home. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be dressed in my black and gold on Saturday cheeering my heart out for the Deacs, but this Canes team reminds me of Clemson in terms of their athleticism, and the Clemson/Wake game two weeks ago was probably the biggest beatdown this year in the ACC.
Pick # 2: Houston (-6.5) vs. Southern Miss- When I see a line that seems lopsided, I usually try to figure out a reason why. A lot of times there will be a key injury. Sometimes it’s because a team is getting way too much hype. Frequently, it will be based on an overabundance of respect for home field advantage. This, however, is one line that I don’t get at all. Houston is a top-15 team that is only one horrible road loss away from being in the thick of the BCS discussion. They are heavily favored to roll to the C-USA championship and haven’t lost at home since 2007. The Golden Eagles, on the other hand, have already dropped 3 games and got beat by UAB the last time they played outside of Hattiesburg. There are also no major suspensions or injuries that I know of. Therefore, why is this line only 6.5 points? Is there some kind of fix going on?
Pick # 3: Air Force (-5.5) vs. Colorado State- This line has soared from 3.5 to 5.5 in the past couple of days, and it’s pretty obvious why. The Falcons are by far the best MWC team outside of the big 3 (TCU, BYU, and Utah), and have already given two of those teams a run for their money (lost to TCU by 3, lost in OT at Utah). Colorado State, on the other hand, is in the midst of a crash and burn type of season losing 5 in a row, including an embarrasing 2 TD home loss to San Diego State last week. The Falcons should roll in this one.
Pick # 4: West Virginia (-3.0) vs. South Florida- I used to love picking weekday games, but unfortuately I haven’t found a lot of weekday spreads I’ve liked this year. This week, however, I like the road teams in both Thursday and Friday’s games. West Virginia is a strong contender to win the Big East this year, and USF appeards to be in the middle of one of their typical late-season collapses.
Pick # 5: North Carolina (+16.5) vs. Virginia Tech- I know the Heels are struggling this season, but this is a ton of points to give Butch Davis’ team. UNC is still fighting for a bowl bid, so they come in with plenty to play for. Virginia Tech has looked very good at home this season, but UNC has played the Hokies close the past 2 years. I just don’t see VT winning this one by more than 2 TDs.
Pick # 6: UTEP (-7.0) vs. UAB- Just going to give you a couple of tidbits for you to consider here. (1) I’ve been red-hot picking C-USA games this year (going 6-0 in one of my pools). (1) The last two times UTEP has played at home they beat Houston and Tulsa (arguably C-USA’s two best teams) , and (3) UAB is 0-4 this year on the road, with all losses coming by 13 points or more. The Miners should win big here.
Pick # 7: Florida State (-9.0) vs. NC State- This is another line that has gone up throughout the week, as many bettors are seeing this game exactly as I do. FSU may be in the midst of a late season resurgence as a result of last week’s comeback win over UNC. The Wolfpack, on the other hand, are one of the disappointment stories of the year, as they come into this one with a 3-game losing streak including back-to-back double digit losses to Duke and BC. This should be a comfortable victory for the Noles.
Pick # 8: Michigan (-7.0) vs. Illinois- Quite simply, the Illini are 1-6 this season will all 6 losses coming by double-digits. Why then would I have any reason to belive they’ll play Michigan (an upper-echelon Big 10 team) any closer than cream puff opponents like Indiana and Purdue?
Pick # 9: Eastern Michigan (+38.0) vs. Arkansas- General rule: With a few exceptions, an unranked team should never be favored by more than 35 points against any other 1-A opponent. I do realize EMU is winless, but they’ve been competitive in a majority of their games. The bigger question here, however, is why the heck is this game being televisioned nationally in prime-time on ESPN U. I think a strong case could be made that this is the worst nationally televised Saturday night college football game ever.
Pick # 10: Western Michigan (+2.5) vs. Kent State- Kent State is all of a sudden one of the surprise teams of the year in the MAC, but I think its because they’ve been overlooked by many of their opponents, including Ohio lask week. A solid Western Michigan team, coming in as a surprise underdog, should be focused and motivated enough to beat them.
Last Week’s Record: 7-3, Overall Record: 48-32 (Magial year in the making!)
