Week 9 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For
Posted by deaconcat08 on October 29, 2009
I did not have the best luck picking upsets last week, as I only picked 2 out of 6 correctly and was way off in my longshot. To my defense, however, I don’t think anyone saw the two Big 12 shockers coming, and other than that the favorites pretty much carried their weight. This week I’m hoping and praying that Texas and USC get upset in the two primetime ABC games. That would definitely make this ho-hum college football season that much more interesting. However, as you will see below, I think one of those upsets is a lot more likely than the other to go down. I’m also more confident about this set of upset predictions than last weeks, althought I’m absolutely clueless when it comes to the double-digit longshot. Here are my upsets to look for in week 9. Keep in mind that I’m not necessarily picking these teams to win, I’m just saying that there is a decent chance that they do. These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.
Western Michigan (+2.5) vs. Kent State- See analysis for this game in my picks of the week entry below.
Louisiana Tech (+3.0) vs. Idaho- After Nevada put up 70 on the Vandals last week, I think we’re all beginning to think that we definitely overhyped this Idaho team. I’ll be the first to admit that I contributed to that, and while I love the storyline, I never thought they were actually that good. Part of sports is overhyping cinderella stories, and that’s what I think we all did here. Maybe I’m wrong though. Maybe the Vandals will come out and beat LA Tech for their 7th win. However, as I wrote on my “good thoughts/bad thoughts” entry the past two weeks, I think the Vandals bowl fate will come down to their season finale against Utah State. For even though they already have 6 wins, it may take 7 for them to actually get a bid.
Oregon (+3.0) vs. Southern Cal- Wow, wouldn’t it be amazing if there was some Halloween upset magic going on simultaneously in Eugene and Stillwater? It would make for a night we’d never forget. Unfortuantely, for the Cowboys, I think the loss of Bryant and injury of Hunter will be too much for them to overcome. Yes, that game does have the feel of the Texas Tech/Texas classic last year, but a key difference is that the Red Raiders were at full strength for their victory. On other hand, I think there is a very good chance we could get an upset in Autzen. If you just look at the facts and figures here, it appears that Oregon should actually be favored in this one. They are playing at home and have been blowing out their opponents on a weekly basis, while USC has the worst loss between the two and barely squeaked by Oregon State and Notre Dame in their past 2 games. The reason the Trojans are favored, however, is because of their amazing big game success under Pete Carroll. Just out curiosity, have they ever lost a primetime ABC game before? I can’t think of one. The bottom line is that this game could go either way, and I’m just hoping the football gods are on the side home team this week.
Minnesota (+3.5) vs. Michigan State- I was really stunned when I saw this line come out and Michigan State was a 6 point favorite. Now, it has come down to where it belongs at around 3. The overrated
Spartans are probably a slightly better team, especially with Decker out for Minnesota, but home field advantage in the Big 10 is not to be taken lightly.
Central Michigan (+5.5) vs. Boston College- This is one of those extremely unpredictable games between a mid-major powerhouse and a decent BCS conference team. The Eagles have been surprisingly good at home this year, but Central Michigan has looked almost unbeatable since their season-opening loss to Arizona. In fact, without that loss, the Chippewas probably be in the top 10 and right in the thick of the BCS-buster debate. This game could go either way, and I applaud both teams on scheduling an unusual midseason non-conference matchup. I imagine BC did not expect to see a 7-1 Top 25 team come to town when they scheduled this one originally.
South Carolina (+5.5) vs. Tennessee- Based on last week’s results (South Carolina’s near loss to Vandy and Tennessee’s near upset of Bama) and the fact that this game is in Neyland, you’d have to give the edge to the Vols here. However, there are definitely some other factors to consider. You have to worry about Tenneessee’s psyche after such a devastating loss in Bama. Will they be able to get up for this one? Also, on the side of things, Spur Dog absolutely thrives on beating UT year after year. Taking all of it in consideration, I do think the Cocks find a way to sneak out a win in Knoxville.
Longshot of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe (+16.5) vs. Troy- Picking a longshot game this week is like trying to choose a College Football All-American from Western Kentucky. Not the best situation. Anyway, here is what I came up with. This is definitely the biggest longshot I’ve taken so far this year, as I didn’t like any of the other double-digit dogs who were favored by less. Troy is probably still king of the Sun Belt and they are at home in this one, but never underestimate a team in the midst of a magical run like the Warhawks are this season.
