Someone asked me the other day why I’ve been voting TCU # 1 for the past few weeks, and how could I really think they are best team in the country.  I therefore thought it might be worthwhile to answer that question with a blog entry based on a hypothetical conversation between me and a prototypical BCS conference elitist.  Yes, we all know those types.  These are the guys that think bowls are wonderful, the BCS is great, Notre Dame is still one of the top teams in the country, and that any football played outside of the top 6 power conferences might as well be 1-AA.  However, I’ve got the facts and figures here to put that guy to shame.  And while I’m at it, maybe I can convince someone out there to buy into my radical notion that TCU is far and away the best team in the college football this year.

BCS Elitist:  So, how could you possibly think TCU is the # 1 ranked team in the nation?

Me:  Well for starters, they’ve won 9 of their 12 games by 25 or more points, including their last seven, and two of those blowout wins came against top 25 foes.  On the other hand, your beloved Gators, Tide, and Longhorns have had to squeak out most of their games.

BCS Elitist: Well you only mentioned 9 of TCU’s games what about the other 3?

Me: One of those other 3 wins was their opener where they beat a BCS conference opponent by 16 points on the road.  There were two teams who actually did manage to stay within single digits of the Frogs this season, but TCU won both games, on the road, and neither of those opponents lost at home the rest of the year.

BCS Elitist: Ok, so you got some impressive numbers there, but you know TCU and the rest of those Non-BCS teams don’t really play anyone.

Me: Well, sir, I hate to break it to you but TCU has more wins over current top 25 teams than any other squad in the country.   All in all, they have three victories against teams currently ranked.  Bama has two and Texas and Florida only have one each.

BCS Elitist:  Well… tough road games are the true measure of how good a team is and TCU doesn’t  play any of those.

Me:Nice try, but the Frogs have 2 road wins over current Top 25 schools, which is exactly how many Florida, Texas, and Alabama have COMBINED.  Also, if you listened to me earlier instead of continuing to write your hate mail letter to the Playoff PAC, then you would’ve heard me point out that the Frogs have two road victories over teams who were otherwise unbeaten at home this year.  Bama only had one such win and Texas had none.  Also, keep in mind that the Frogs played more total true road games than any of your Big 3 squads, as TCU had to go into enemy territory 6 times this year.  Texas had to do it 5 times and Florida and Bama only 4. 

BCS Elitist: Well… Jiminy Cricket.  There’s got to be something I can come up with to expose your Frogs as inferior to the real superstars of college football.  Oh, I know.  What about common opponents?  I bet the big 3 dismantled any teams TCU played by a lot more points.

Me: Well, there aren’t that many of those actually because your national superpowers never actually play anyone decent out of conference.  Florida and Alabama only played one non-conference game against a team from a BCS conference, and Texas played zero.  TCU played two.  However, upon careful examination, there is one team that both TCU and Texas played.  Both squads went up to Laramie to play the Wyoming Cowboys.  TCU, however, won by more points than Texas did and also outgained Wyoming by a substantially greater margin than Texas.

BCS Elitist: Well, all I’ve got to say is that I grew up with bowl games, BCS exclusivity, and popularity-based national champions and that’s just the way things ought to be, so you’re TCU team isn’t going to make the cut.  There are clearly 3 superpower unbeatens this season, and 3 others who are beneath them.

Me:  Yeah, you’re probably right.  Three of the six unbeatens have five total wins over Top 25 teams coming by a combined 76 points; meanwhile, the other three only have four such victories by a total of 54 points.

BCS Elitist: See, there you go.   That’s a statistic I can buy into.  Florida, Texas, and Bama have more Top 25 winsthan Boise, TCU, and Cincy and have outscored their Top 25 opposition by more points.

Me: Actually, you’ve got it entirely reversed.  The first group I was talking about was TCU, Boise State, and Cincinnati, and the second group is Florida, Texas, and Alabama.

BCS Elitist: What?  You’ve got to be kidding

Me: Nope.

BCS Elitist: I’m done with this argument.  You’re just being a stupid sentimentalist in your love for “the little guy”.  I’ve got to finish writing protest letters to Orrin Hatch and the Playoff PAC and send a congratulations e-mail to my new president, Bill Hancock. 

Me: Bye then.  Have fun this weekend watching your semifinal game of a make-believe playoff that crowns a non-existent national champion every year.  But numbers don’t lie my friend, and far away in Fort Worth, Texas, there lies a football team that can beat anybody it plays.  A team that should go down in history as the greatest to never get a chance at the national championship.

There was some moving and shaking at the top of the CFRA poll this week, as Florida regained the # 1 spot after back-to-back weeks at # 3.  This movement actually created a tie at the 2-spot between Texas and Alabama, which I believe this is the first tie between two top 5 teams  in any major poll this season.  However, there will certainly be more changes up there next week, as Bama and Florida square off on Saturday.  We also had a surprise MAC entrant into the poll for the second consecutive week.  Temple snuck into the CFRA poll at # 24  last week, and now after the Owls’ disappointing loss to Ohio, Central Michigan has been voted in to replace them at the same spot.  Furthermore, a major theme emerged in this week’s rankings and that is the continued respect the CFRA has for quality mid-major programs and lack of respect for teams from inferior BCS Conferences.  If you check out the CFRA extremity listings at the bottom of the poll, you will see that 4 out of 5 of the teams voted higher in this poll than in the AP, Coaches, and BCS are squads from non-BCS conferences.  Conversely, 5 of the 6 teams voted lower in this poll than in the three others are squads from the worst BCS leagues (ACC and Big East).  At any rate, here are this week’s rankings.

1.  Florida (4)- 215 points 

2.  Texas (2)- 210 points

2.  Alabama (1)- 210 points

4.  TCU (2)- 206 points

5.  Boise State- 193 points

6.  Cincinnati- 181 points

7.  Ohio State- 167 points

8.  Oregon- 164 points

9.  Penn State- 142 points

10.  Iowa- 137 points

11.  Virginia Tech- 134 points

12.  Brigham Young- 111 points

13.  Georgia Tech- 108 points

14.  LSU- 101 points

15.  Oregon State- 100 points

16.  Pittsburgh- 93 points

17.  Houston- 82 points

18.  Miami (FL)- 77 points

19.  Southern Cal- 61 points

20.  Nebraska- 42 points

21.  California- 40 points

22.  Stanford- 36 points

23.  West Virginia- 21 points

24.  Central Michigan- 19 points

25.  Oklahoma State- 18 points

Others Receiving Votes: Utah 16,  Wisconsin 14, Clemson 12, Troy 7, Ohio 6, Ole Miss 1, William & Mary 1

Dropped Out: Clemson 15, Utah 19, Ole Miss 22, Temple 24

Teams Ranked Higher in CFRA than BCS, AP, and Coaches: Boise State (5), Brigham Young (12), Houston (17), Stanford (22), Central Michigan (24).

Teams Ranked Lower in CFRA than BCS, AP, and Coaches:  Cincinnati (6), Georgia Tech (13), Pittsburgh (16), Miami-FL (18), Oklahoma State (25), Clemson (NR).

Teams Ranked Exactly the Same in All 3 Major Human Polls (AP, CFRA, and Coaches):  Florida (1), TCU (4).

Every year since 1998, I have sat down on either the Saturday or Sunday after Thanksgiving and drafted a set of bowl projections for the upcoming college football postseason.  I try to do a decent amount of research before making these predictions, and then as the actual pairings are announced, I analyze the accuracy of my picks in three different ways.  I calculate the  percentage of teams I correctly predicted to go bowling, the percentage of slots predicted correctly (ex: having the right SEC team in the Outback Bowl), and the percentage of total bowls correctly predicted (ex: having the correct matchup in the Outback Bowl).  My best marks in each category are: 100% of teams correctly predicted (2006), 57.4% of slots correctly predicted (2008), and 36% of bowl correctly predicted (2000).  I’m glad that I can finally share these with everyone in a public forum, and I hope they will prove to be  informative and prophetic.

Before I go through all the games, I just wanted to give an explanation of my reasoning in regard to certain aspects of these projections.  After I finished working on these picks, I went online to compare them with those found on other sports sites.  While there are obviously some similarities, one unique prognostication I have is that Oklahoma State will slip in the Big 12 bowl pecking order, as a result of their lackluster conclusion to the season.  Most projections still have them in the Cotton Bowl after their near-defeat to Colorado and shutout-loss to Oklahoma, but  I, on the other hand, feel like those performances will hinder their bowl standing and make them a less than attractive candidate for an elite bowl bid.  I guess we’ll just have to wait and see, which brings up another issue: I still have no idea when all the bowl pairings will be announced.  If you read my good thoughts/bad thoughts entry from College Football Week 12, you will see that I talk about the “Army/EagleBank delay”  and its possible effect on the entire bowl schedule.  I actually have not heard of any other pundits/columnists talk about this, so I’m thinking that either I’m the only person who is aware of it or there has already an explanation of what is going to be done that I don’t know about.

Finally, I obviously had to work off a few assumptions/predictions about next week’s games in order to make these.  First of all, I’m predicting Oregon, Florida, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, and Texas all win their respective conference title games.  If one or more of these team loses, then were will obviously be some modifications to the BCS bowls as well as some smaller bowls.  Furthermore, I am assuming that the two current bowl bubble teams: Army and Hawaii don’t win their last game and thus become ineligible for postseason play.  If one or both of these teams pulls off a big upset in their finale, then it would also change some of my predictions because both team would then be guaranteed bowl bids.

As of right now, all bowl eligible teams will get a bid except for three.  The two 6-6 Sun Belt teams (UL-Monroe and UL-Lafayette) are almost certainly going to get snubbed from the postseason, but the third in this group is somewhat a surprise.  Based on my analysis and other online projections, UCLA will most likely not be extended a bowl bid.  The reason being is that the Pac-10 has seven bowl eligible teams and only has six bowl tie-ins.  The Bruins will be Pac-10 team # 7 for selection purposes and will therefore have to receive an at-large bid.  After all the 7-5 at-larges are placed in bowl games (as required by law), only one spot for a 6-6 team at-large team will remain.  That spot will then almost certainly go to Notre Dame, so the Bruins will probably be squeezed out the postseason picture.  This may be confusing to some because you will notice that several inferior 6-6 teams (Wyoming, Marshall) will be getting bowl bids.  The reason they get one instead of UCLA is that their conferences have enough tie-ins for them to get a bid without having to enter the at-large pool.  At any rate, here are the picks.  Please let me know if you have any questions or comments about these.

 New Mexico (Dec. 19)- Wyoming (6-6) vs. Nevada (8-4)

St. Petersburg (Dec. 19)- Southern Miss (7-5) vs. Connecticut (6-5)

New Orleans (Dec. 20)- Troy (9-3) vs. Central Florida (8-4)

Las Vegas (Dec. 22)- Oregon State (8-3) vs. Brigham Young (10-2) (note: this would mark BYU’s 5th straight Las Vegas Bowl appearance)

Poinsettia (Dec. 23)- Utah (9-3) vs. Arizona (7-4)

Hawaii (Dec. 24)- East Carolina (8-4) vs. Fresno State (7-4)

Little Caesar’s (Dec. 26)- Notre Dame (6-6) vs. Central Michigan (10-2)

Meineke Car Care (Dec. 26)- North Carolina (8-4) vs. West Virginia (8-3) (note: rematch of same bowl last year)

Emerald (Dec. 26)- Boston College (8-4) vs. Stanford (8-4) (note: battle of elite private schools)

Music City (Dec. 27)- South Carolina (7-5) vs. Florida State (6-6) (note: Spurrier takes on his arch nemesis from yesteryear– Bowden and the Noles)

Independence (Dec. 28)- Auburn (7-5) vs. Texas A & M (6-6)

Eagle Bank (Dec. 29)- Northern Illinois (7-5) vs. Marshall (6-6)

Champs Sports (Dec. 29)- Virginia Tech (9-3) vs. Northwestern (8-4)

Humanitarian (Dec. 30)- Idaho (7-5) vs. Bowling Green (7-5)

Holiday (Dec. 30)- Oklahoma (7-5) vs. Southern Cal (8-3) (note: rematch of 2005 national title game)

Armed Forces (Dec. 31)- SMU (7-5) vs. Air Force (7-5)

Sun (Dec. 31)- California (8-3) vs. Nebraska (9-3)

Texas (Dec. 31)- Navy (8-4) vs. Iowa State (6-6)

Insight (Dec. 31)- Missouri (8-4) vs. Minnesota (6-6)

Chick-fil-a (Dec. 31)- Georgia (7-5) vs. Clemson (8-4)

Outback (Jan. 1)- Tennessee (7-5) vs. Wisconsin (8-3)

Capital One (Jan. 1)- Ole Miss (8-4) vs. Penn State (10-2)

Gator (Jan. 1)- Pittsburgh (9-2) vs. Miami-FL (9-3)

Rose (Jan. 1)- Ohio State (10-2) vs. Oregon (9-2)

Sugar (Jan. 1)- Alabama (12-0) vs. Cincinnati (11-0)

International (Jan. 2)- Rutgers (8-3) vs. Temple (9-3) (note: matchup of old Big East bottom-dwelling rivals)

Papajohns.com (Jan. 2)- South Florida (7-4) vs. Kentucky (7-5)

Cotton (Jan. 2)- LSU (9-3) vs. Texas Tech (8-4)  

Liberty (Jan. 2)- Arkansas (7-5) vs. Houston (10-2) (note: two SWC rivals meet up in a showdown of two explosive offenses)

Alamo (Jan. 2)- Michigan State (6-6) vs. Oklahoma State (9-3)

Fiesta (Jan. 4)- Iowa (10-2) vs. Boise State (12-0)

Orange (Jan. 5)- Georgia Tech (10-2) vs. TCU (12-0)

GMAC (Jan. 6)- Middle Tennesee State (9-3) vs. Ohio (9-3)

BCS Title Game (Jan. 7)- Florida (12-0) vs. Texas (12-0)

Good Thoughts:

1.  Bad blood- You got to love rivalry games.  Aside from all the upsets that can happen, it’s always enjoyable just to see the passion stemming from a matchup between two teams who absolutely hate each other.  I probably shouldn’t be condoning unnecessary violence, but in my opinion, the bench-clearing pregame/postgame brawls best exemplify this concept.  For I think most of us can admit it’s hard not to get emotionally involved in rivalry weekend when watching things like Kansas and Missouri go at it after the Border War, USC and UCLA get riled up at the conclusion of their intra-city matchup, or Georgia and Georgia Tech engage in a good, old-fashioned pregame staredown.

2.  The South Carolina Gamecocks- The one bright spot for me personally today was SC’s big victory over Clemson in a game I attended.  Other than the opening kickoff return by Clemson, everything imaginable went right for the Cocks.  They dominated the Tigers on both sides of the ball, the crowd was as raucous as ever, and several freshman and sophomores (especially cornerback/quarterback Stephon Gilmore) emerged as promising future stars.  If in two or three years from now this squad doesn’t end up making some noise in the SEC title race, then I’m not sure it every will. 

3.  Conference championship games- Week 14 has  to be the first-time ever that five of the six BCS conferences will hold championship games on the same weekend.  Aside from the pre-scheduled SEC, Big 12, and ACC title games, two de facto championshpgames have emerged with Cincinnati and Pitt playing each other for the Big East Title and Oregon and Oregon State meeting up in Autzen for the Pac-10 Championship on Thursday night.  It’s pretty crazy that two conferences engaged in round-robin scheduling could set up a winner-take-all game at the end of the season.  Some may have foreseen the  potential BCS implications of the Pitt and Cincy matchup, but I don’t think anyone pegged this year’s Civil War as a possible Pac-10 title game.  When you add the C-USA and MAC championships to the mix, there are seven conference titles on the line in Week 14, so next Thursday-Saturday should be a weekend to remember.  Unfortunately, some of us will be watching the action with a textbook in our hands, as we try to simultaneously study for law school exams.

Bad Thoughts:

1.  The BCS- You can complain about the BCS all you want, but when push comes to shove, there really aren’t words to describe how unjust the college football postseason really is.  First of all, the debate about whether or not the BCS works should be officially resolved now.  Four or five unbeatens will enter this year’s postseason unbeaten, which should prove that the system is about as effective as Rice’s defense was against Houston on Saturday.  Boise State certainly demonstrated they are worthy of a shot at a national title by dismantling a red-hot Nevada team on Friday night.  TCU’s situation is even more perplexing.  The Frogs have officially finished the season 12-0 winning their last seven games by 27 points or more and that includes wins over Utah and BYU.  Think about that for a minute.  TCU has demolished, dominated, woodsheded, and walloped every single team  (including two ranked opponents) they’ve played since October 10th.  Unfortunately, wins by Texas, Florida, and Alabama this weekend pretty much ruled out any chance of TCU or Boise getting a shot at a national championship.  That’s truly unbelievable.  To put things in a slightly exaggerated perspective, I’d say the BCS is approaching Communism and Terrorism on the list of the most heinous institutions in human history.  We fought wars to try to get rid of those evils, so I see no reason why we can’t do the same here.

2.  Kentucky football- The Cats aren’t on this list because they necessarily committed an egregious wrong on Saturday night in their loss to Tennessee (though the offensive play calling in the last 2 minutes of regulation was a little too conservative for my liking).  Instead, I’d simply like point out that all the things you hear about rivalry games, such as “you can throw out the records for both teams” or “whichever team wants it more will ultimately prevail”, do not apply to the Kentucky-Tennessee game.  The Cats simply cannot beat the Vols, regardless of where the game is played, how good each team is, and how much does the game matters.    

3.  Rivalry week no-shows- Some teams had more to play for than others this week, and some squads had championship games next week that they were looking ahead to.  However, neither of those facts, should excuse a team from putting forth a quality effort in that squad’s huge intrastate rivalry game.  That is why the lackluster performances given on Saturday by Ole Miss, Clemson, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Oklahoma State all deserve to be criticized.  For it’s one thing to lose a rivalry game, but it’s another to apathetically lay an egg during one.

There are only two squads left on the bubble, as a number of teams either played themselves into a bowl game or out of a bowl game this weekend.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has in actually receiving a bid. This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference. It all depends on how many other teams are bowl eligible from a conference and how many total bids are available to that conference. The exception to this is for the Sun Belt conference teams, which I went ahead and assumed they need 7 wins to make it to a bowl.

Bubble watch teams from last week who have now clinched bowl eligbility: Wyoming, UConn

Bubble watch teams from last week who are now out of bowl contention: Kansas (worst college football collapse ever!), Toledo, UAB, Western Michigan, Kent State

Championship weekend is finally upon us!  Here is what has already been decided regarding conference championships and what will be decided next Saturday.   In all, there are seven conference championships games next week, as only four conference titles have been clinched (those champs are highlighted in bold).

ACC- Clemson vs. Georgia Tech

Big 12- Nebraska vs. Texas

SEC- Florida vs. Alabama

Big East- Cincinnati vs. Pitt

Big Ten- Ohio State 

Pac-10- Oregon vs. Oregon State

Mountain West- TCU

WAC- Boise State

C-USA- East Carolina vs. Houston

MAC - Ohio vs. Central Michigan

Sun Belt- Troy

These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.

Pick # 1: Oklahoma State (+8.0) vs. Oklahoma- See analysis for this game in my upset entry below.

Pick # 2: Troy (-9.5) vs. UL-Lafayette- The Trojans have been blowing out everybody in the Sun Belt, and I expect more of the same in this one.

Pick # 3: Navy (-9.5) vs. Hawaii- The Midshipmen are the much more talented squad, and they are not the kind of team that is going to go to Honolulu, party all weekend, and not show up ready to play on Saturday night.

Pick # 4: Kent State (+3.0) vs. Buffalo- See analysis for this game in my upset entry below.

Pick # 5: Wyoming (+3.0) vs. Colorado State- See analysis for this game in my upset entry below.

Pick # 6: Bowling Green (-7.5) vs. Toledo- After a slow start to the season, the Falcons have won five of their last six; meanwhile, Toledo has limped through the homestretch of their season, losing three of their last four.

Pick # 7: Marshall (+1.5) vs. UTEP- See analysis for this game in my upset entry below.

Pick # 8: Nevada (+14.0) vs. Boise State- See analysis for this game in my upset entry below.

Pick # 9: South Carolina (+3.0) vs. Clemson- See analysis for this game in my upset entry below.

Pick # 10: Texas A & M (+21.0) vs. Texas- The Aggies have scored 30 or more points in every home game they’ve played this year and seem to annually give the Longhorns fits in this rivalry game.  This matchup is reminiscent to the game played between these two teams in 2005 when Vince Young’s squad almost had its undefeated season and national title hopes derailed in College Station.  Expect another scare in this one.

Last Week Record: 5-5, Overall Record: 67-53.

These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.

Marshall (+1.5) vs. UTEP- I know the Thundering Herd are on the road here, but they are must more talented team than the Miners who somehow managed to lose to Rice last weekend.

Kent State (+3.0) vs. Buffalo- A team playing for a bowl berth against an inferior opponent.

Wyoming (+3.0) vs. Colorado State- Same situation as above.

South Carolina (+3.0) vs. Clemson- I’m willing to bet that Clemson gets caught here looking ahead to their big ACC title game next weekend.

Kentucky (+3.0) vs. Tennessee- This is the year!  I feel it!  The Cats have yet to beat the Vols in my lifetime, which is why I’m hoping for some magic in Commonwealth on Saturday night.

Kansas (+3.0) vs. Missouri- The Jayhawks always seem to bring their “A-game” against the Tigers, and with a bowl berth and potentially Mangino’s job on the line here, I think they may find a way to pull this one out.

Duke (+4.5) vs. Wake Forest- I’d hate to see my Deacs end the season by losing six straight, but they may have packed it in after their meltdown against FSU.  The Dookies play Wake tough every year (including the Orange Bowl Season), and this may be the year they finally get over the hump.

Oklahoma State (+8.0) vs. Oklahoma- Someone please explain this to me.  How can Oklahoma go from only being 7 point favorites  in this game last year (when they were 10-1 and playing for a national title shot) to being 8 point favorites this year (when they are 6-5 and playing an ever better OSU team).  I truly don’t understand this line at all.

Longshot of the Week: Nevada (+14.0) vs. Boise State- Boise’s unbelievable Smurf Turf win streak has to come to an end sometime, and the red-hot Wolfpack may be the team that can do it.  The Pack have been blowing out everybody recently and have impressively become the first team ever to have three 1,000 yard rushers.

Enjoy the football, folks.

The basketball counterpart to the College Football Researchers Association has been formed and will begin publishing a weekly Top 25 poll, similar to the CFRA’s,  starting next Monday.  The URL for the site is:

http://leavetheguntakethecannolis.wordpress.com/ 

If you would like to participate in this brand new college basketball poll, please contact Ben Lynch at: benjaminwlynch@gmail.com

Wow… it sure is tight at the top.  For the first-time in seven weeks, there are no ties in the CFRA poll; however, the three unbeaten powerhouses are virtually in a deadlock for the top spot.  Only one point separates Texas, Alabama, and Florida, as the top 3 stay the same in the CFRA for the second consecutive week.    Interestingly enough, Florida actually received the most first-place votes of any team this week, yet they find themselves at # 3.  I don’ t think I have ever seen that before in any top 25 poll in any sport.  There is also a major surprise at bottom of the Top 25, as Temple becomes a surprise entrant into the poll.  I’m not sure the last-time Temple was ranked in any college football poll, but the association feels they have earned the 24th spot based on their impressive 9-game winning streak, which is one of the longest in the country.  Without further ado, here are this week’s rankings.

1.  Texas (3)- 260 points 

2.  Alabama (2)- 259 points

3.  Florida (4)- 258 points

4.  TCU (2)- 252 points

5.  Boise State- 235 points

6.  Cincinnati- 221 points

7.  Georgia Tech- 209 points

8.  Pittsburgh- 194 points

9.  Ohio State- 185 points

10.  Oregon- 178 points

11.  Oklahoma State- 158 points

12.  Penn State- 146 points

13.  Iowa- 140 points

14.  Virginia Tech- 128 points

15.  Clemson- 115 points

16.  Brigham Young- 103 points

17.  LSU- 86 points

18.  Oregon State- 80 points

19.  Utah- 62 points

20.  Miami (FL)- 57 points

21.  Houston- 56 points

22.  Ole Miss- 51 points

23.  Southern Cal- 33 points

24.  Temple- 26 points

25.  California- 17 points

Others Receiving Votes: Nebraska 15, Central Michigan 14,  North Carolina 14, Stanford 12, Wisconsin 8, Nevada 2, Troy 1

Dropped Out: Wisconsin 14, Stanford 15, Rutgers 22

Teams Ranked Higher in CFRA than BCS, AP, and Coaches: Texas (1), Boise State (5), Temple (24).

Teams Ranked Lower in CFRA than BCS, AP, and Coaches: Florida (3), Cincinnati (6), North Carolina (NR). 

Teams Ranked Exactly the Same in All 3 Major Human Polls (AP, CFRA, and Coaches):  TCU (4) , Georgia Tech (7), Oregon (10), Iowa (13), Virginia Tech (14), LSU (17) .

Good Thoughts:

1.  Next Week’s Games- It’s finally rivalry weekend in college football, as even though we saw a few rivalry games this past weekend the big ones are coming up this Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  Barring a miracle, the national title picture will not change on Saturday, as Florida, Alabama, and Texas will all be heavy favorites to win and head into their conference title games unbeaten.  However, there will still be plenty to play for.  Four conference/division titles will be on the line (see conference championship entry below for more details).  Ten teams will be vying for bowl eligibility (see bowl eligibility entry below for more details).  Kentucky will have a realistic chance at ending their 26-game losing streak to Tennessee. South Carolina may actually beat Clemson at home for the first-time since 2001, as the Tigers may be caught looking ahead to Georgia Tech.

2.  The week after’s games- Even more exciting than next weekend’s rivalry games, are the conference championship games the following week.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say it’s the best December football weekend of all-time.  The BCS Title Game will be determined by the Big 12 Title Game and the SEC Championship Game, which may be the biggest game in the conference’s lengthy history.  Other BCS bids will be decided in title games for the Big East, ACC, and PAC-10, which will feature the biggest athletic contest in the history of the state of Oregon.  Also, let’s not forget the MAC Title Game, where Temple (who has not bowled since 1979) may be playing for a conference crown! 

3.  Big-time job openings- This is only good news for coaches looking to get a job at the next-level, but based on this weekend’s results several high-profile coaching positions could open up.  Charlie Weis, Al Groh, and Dan Hawkins are all likely to be canned in the next few weeks.  Rich Rod may be out at Michigan, and at the very least he’ll be forced to get some new coordinators (Greg Robinson was worst hire ever!).  Even the Georgia job could become available, as Saturday’s disappointing loss to Kentucky will put Richt squarely on the hot seat.  In addition, Wake Forest may be hiring a new offensive coordinator (please!!!) 

Bad Thoughts:

1.  Late game coaching miscues- We saw lots of questionable/horrible coaching calls that proved to be the difference in several important games.  Here’s a breakdown of the ones that come to mind, in order of ascending atrociousness.

• Maryland- Yes, that was a clutch final-minute drive by FSU, but it was all setup by a huge punt return.  The MD coaching staff should have ordered the punter to make sure, at all costs, that the kick went out of bounds.  When a team is ten times more athletic than you, you can’t give them a chance to run one back under those circumstances.
• Stanford- The Cardinal absolutely dominated Cal on the ground all game-long, so they had no business throwing the ball when they were inside the 10-yard line during their potential game-winning drive.  The result, of course, was interception costing Stanford a chance at a share of the Pac-10 title. 
• LSU- What was Les Miles thinking?  Mistake # 1: Why would you ever want to run-off 20 seconds of game clock before calling a timeout when you need to march 70 yards for the winning score?  Mistake # 2: How can you not at least try to run a play with one second left in the game?  The field goal team should have been ready to run in there, and if they weren’t, then they at least had to take a shot at the endzone.
• Yale- This may have been the worst coaching move of the year, if not all-time.  This late-game fourth down gamble makes Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2 against the Colts look brilliant.  The Bulldogs led 10-7 with 2:25 left in their rivalry game against Harvard and faced a 4th and 22 on their own 26.  This is probably the most obvious punting situation ever, but instead, Yale inexplicably decided to try for a fake.  After they ended up 16 yards short of the first down, the Crimson mustered an easy 32 yard TD drive for the win.  Isn’t Yale an Ivy League school?  I think they should drop in the U.S. News and World Report Rankings after that decision. 

2.  Military Intervention of Bowl Selections?- No, I’m not joking.  The United States Military Academy has setup a strange bowl selection scenario.  The Black Knights are one game away from clinching their automatic bid to the EagleBankBowl meaning that if they beat Navy, they will be bowl bound, but if they lose then the spot will go to an at-large team.  The problem with this is that the Navy vs. Army game has been moved back until December 12th this season making it impossible for the EagleBank to be scheduled prior to this game.  The bowl selection show usually takes place on December 5th, but I’m not sure how many bowls will be/can be scheduled before the Army/Navy game.  Even if the EagleBank Bowl is the only bowl spot that is waiting to be filled, it will still cause a delay in the beginning of all the college football pools, predictions, and other analysis that require a finalized bowl schedule.  This is what’s wrong with college football.  They don’t think before they act.  This was obviously a foreseeable conflict that someone should have thought about before moving the Army/Navy to the Saturday after the conference championship weekend. 

3.  Law School Exams- On a personal note, I will be studying for my law school exams pretty much non-stop (there will be stops for college football of course) from now until mid-December.  I have a little break after December 8th where I plan to post my bowl predictions and mock playoff for the year, but unfortunately, until that time, I won’t be able to spend as much time writing  on this blog.  I still plan to post my picks and upsets of the week for the last 2 Saturdays of the season, but these entries and any others will likely be abbreviated.  I apologize in advance for this, but I do promise that the CFRA poll will be posted at its regularly scheduled time on Sunday nights.

Every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible in this analysis. Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has in actually receiving a bid. This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference. It all depends on how many other teams are bowl eligible from a conference and how many total bids are available to that conference. The exception to this is for the Sun Belt conference teams, which I went ahead and assumed they need 7 wins to make it to a bowl. Also, next week’s games that could make or break a team’s bowl eligibility are italicized.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids-

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays

Bubble watch teams from last week who have now clinched bowl eligbility: South Florida, Tennessee, Florida State (just barely), Bowling Green, Texas A &M, Marshall, UCLA

Bubble watch teams from last week who are now out of bowl contention: Kansas State, Tulsa, Michigan, Mississippi State, Arizona State, Duke, Baylor, San Diego State, Louisville, Western Michigan

Several conference/division titles were clinched on Saturday, but there are still some major championships to be won.  Here is this week’s update regarding the FBS conference championship races.  Bold teams have already clinched their division.  Italicized divisions are the probable champions at this point in time.

ACC Atlantic- Clemson

ACC Coastal- Georgia Tech

Big 12 North- Nebraska

Big 12 South- Texas

SEC East- Florida

SEC West- Alabama

Big East- Cincinnati (will play Pitt in de facto Big East title game on December 5th)

Big Ten- Ohio State 

Pac-10- Oregon (will play Oregon State in the biggest Civil War of all-time on Thursday December 3rd.  Because this is by far the most important game in this history of one of the most hostile rivalries in the country, I’m declaring this matchup the biggest game of the year, aside from the SEC Championship Game 2 days later.)

Mountain West- TCU

WAC- Boise State (plays a red-hot Nevada team in de facto WAC title game on Friday.)

C-USA East- East Carolina (plays Southern Miss in de facto division title game on Saturday.)

C-USA West- Houston (SMU pretty much blew its chance at winning the division crown on Saturday, and now the Mustangs just need to think about beating Tulane next weekend to guarantee themselves their first bowl bid since the death penalty.  They can still technically win the division, but they’ll need to not only beat the Green Wave next Saturday but also have Rice upset Houston on the same day.  Stranger things have happened I guess.)

MAC East- Temple  (plays Ohio in a de facto division title game next Friday at 11AM on the U.)

MAC West- Central Michigan

Sun Belt- Troy

I’m off to hot start this week picking games, as you can see that I picked both Wed. night games correctly in my picks of the week entry. As far as underdogs go, I had a decent performance picking upsets last week (3 for 6), but I was way off on my longshot pick, as MSU laid an egg against Bama.  These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.

Northern Illinois (+1.0) vs. Ohio- This is a really interesting game because both teams are playing for their respective division title.  The loser will be out of the running, while the winner will advance into a de facto division title game next weekend.  See conference title entry below for more details.  I really could see this game go either way because even though Ohio is at home, the Huskies are a tad bit more talented in my opinion.

Army (+2.0) vs. North Texas- The Mean Green have been much improved this year, but it has yet to be determined whether or not they did enough to keep Dodge employed as head coach.  Army will be playing to keep its longshot bowl hopes alive, as a victory would give them a chance to earn their automatic bid to the EagleBank Bowl against Navy on December 12th.  North Texas I’m sure would love to get a late-season home victory, but the Knights’ more-disciplined attack should propel them to victory.

LSU (+4.0) vs. Ole Miss- Don’t really know what to think about this game.  Both of these teams have had somewhat disappointing seasons where their play has been up and down throughout, both at home and on the road.  While LSU”s wins have been uninspiring, they still only have 2 losses and those are to the # 1 and # 3 ranked teams in the country.  Ole Miss, on the other hand, has yet to beat a top 25 team, or anyone else who has the defensive prowess as LSU.

Arizona State (+5.0) vs. UCLA- I’m not giving up on my Sun Devils just yet.  They still have an outside chance at a bowl game, and they’ll need to start with a win against the Bruins.  Both of these teams are evenly-matched, and even though the game is in L.A, I see it coming right down to the wire.

Arizona (+6.0) vs. Oregon- See picks of the week entry below for analysis about this game.

Texas Tech (+6.5) vs. Oklahoma- Even though this game lacks the postseason implications that it usually has, it should still be entertaining.  Everything I said about Ole Miss and LSU can be echoed here.  Both teams have had disappointing seasons marred by erratic play.  Injuries have been the major problem for the Sooners, while Texas Tech has failed to find a capable successor for Graham Harrell at quarterback.  One thing I’ve noticed about Mike Leach’s teams over the years though is that they play well as an underdog, especially at home.  Just ask Nebraska this year, Texas last year, and  Oklahoma 2 years ago.  In fact, since 1993 Texas Tech has won five out of the seven times they’ve been a home underdog by 3.5 to 7 points. 

Longshot of the Week: Florida International (+44.5) vs. Florida- Just kidding…

The Real Longshot of the Week: Air Force (+10.0) vs. BYU- Other than their victory over Oklahoma, BYU has actually proven very little this year besides the fact that they are capable of putting up huge numbers against vastly inferior teams. Unfortunately for the Cougars, Air Force will not be a team that they can just roll over.  In fact, the Falcons haven’t lost a game by more than 7 points this year and that includes a 3-point defeat to TCU, who manhandled BYU on the road a few weeks ago.  My only hesitation in picking this game is that the Cougars’ offense is capable of putting up a ton of points at home.  However, if Air Force can control the clock with their triple-option, then expect this game to come right down to the wire, and if it does, then the Falcons are definitely due a win in a close game  (AF is 0-2 in OT games this season).