Week 10 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For
Posted by deaconcat08 on November 3, 2009
I wasn’t exactly on fire in my picking of upsets last week, as only 2 of 6 hit. However, last week was a miserable week for underdogs, and unfortunately for this column and all those who like watching upsets, this week looks to be more the same. There a 2 or 3 dogs I really like this week, but after that I’m not really sure. In all, I’ve got 6 potential upsets for you to consider, along with my weekly longshot pick, where once again my choices were severely limited. These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.
Houston (+1.0) vs. Tulsa- I’m absolutely baffled that after Keenum’s amazing performance last week and Tulsa’s miserable home loss to SMU that Houston has gone from a point and half favorite here to a 1-point dog. Bet the house on the Cougars this week!
UL-Monroe (+1.0) vs. North Texas- See analysis of this game in my “picks of the week” entry below.
Bowling Green (+3.5) vs. Buffalo- Both of these teams are in the midst of hugely disappointing seasons, as I imagine ESPN did not expect these teams to come into this game with a combined 6-10 record when they scheduled it for a Tuesday night national TV game. Nevertheless, someone has to win tonight, and since I had such poor early success picking Buffalo this year that I thought that it wouldn’t hurt to see what happens if I picked against them. Bowling Green has actually played somewhat well on the road this season going 2-2, and Buffalo is only 1-2 at home against 1-A opponents.
Ohio State (+4.0) vs. Penn State- You might as well flip a coin to pick the winner of this battle between Big 10 heavyweights, but here are just a few things to consider. OSU has more to play for, as they control their own conference title/Rose Bowl destiny. Penn State, on the other hand, has its sights set on the Outback or Capital One bowl barring a late-season collapse by Iowa. Also, the Buckeyes have won 2 out of their last 3 of in State College, so they clearly aren’t afraid to play there.
South Carolina (+7.0) vs. Arkansas- I’m not giving up on the Gamecocks just yet, as I think this team still has some life let in it and will avoid its typical late season collapse that has become a trademark of the Spurrier era. They have looked bad the last couple of weeks, but but don’t count on SC to give Arkansas 4 first half turnovers like they did against Tenneessee. The Cocks have had trouble playing the Hogs over the years, losing 4 of the past 7, however, if the defense can keep the Razorback offense in check and Garcia and company don’t turn the ball over, then they have a shot at winning this one.
Oregon State (+7.0) vs. California- People are declaring that the Bears are back after their humiliating early season losses to USC and Oregon, but I’m not so sure. Cal needed a last-minute miracle drive to beat Arizona State last week, and all of the Bears’ wins this year have come against teams with less talent than the Beavers. Oregon State has a real shot to win this one I think.
Longshot of the Week: Navy (+11.0) vs. Notre Dame- The Midshipmen are coming off a horrible home loss to Temple, but I’m not sure if the Irish are capable of soundly beating anyone (except of course Wazzou), and if you let Navy and its triple-option attack hang around long enough, then you might just get beat (ask Wake the last two years).