Posted by deaconcat08 on November 8, 2009
Thought I’d create a column for the next few weeks analyzing the bowl bubble and determining each team’s chances of playing postseason college football. Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has in actually receiving a bid. This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference. It all depends on how many other teams are bowl eligible from a conference and how many total bids are available to that conference. The exception to this is for the Sun Belt conference teams, which I went ahead and assumed they need 7 wins to make it to a bowl. Also, next week’s games that could make or break a team’s bowl eligibility are italicized.
Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids-
Arkansas- Record: 5-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 75% (last week: 58%); Remaining Schedule: Troy, Miss. State, at LSU
Texas A & M- Record: 5-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 66% (last week: 75%); Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas
Marshall- Record: 5-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 64% (last week: 68%); Remaining Schedule: Southern Miss, SMU, at UTEP
SMU- Record: 5-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 64% (last week: 63%); Remaining Schedule: UTEP, at Marshall, Tulane
Central Florida- Record: 5-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 64% (last week: 55%);Remaining Schedule: Houston, Tulane, at UAB
Western Michigan- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 63% (last week: 66%); Remaining Schedule: at Eastern Michigan, Ball State
Missouri- Record: 5-4; Odds of bowl eligibility 61% (last week: 70%); Remaining Schedule: at Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas (note: Horrible loss to Baylor puts them squarely on the bowl bubble)
Ole Miss- Record: 6-3 (need 7 wins); Odds of bowl eligibility: 60% (last week: 65%); Remaining Schedule: Tennessee, LSU, at Miss. State
UL-Monroe- Record: 5-4 (prob. needs 7 wins for a bid); Odds of bowl eligibility: 59% (last week: 59%); Remaining Schedule: WKU, at UL-Lafayette, MTSU (note: going for first bowl big in school history.)
Texas A & M- Record: 5-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 58% (last week: 59%); Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas
Michigan State- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 57% (last week: 66%); Remaining Schedule: at Purdue, Penn State (note: odds drop because Purdue game looks tougher than expected)
Kentucky-Record: 5-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 56% (last week: 60%); Remaining Schedule: at Vandy, at Georgia, Tennessee
Kent State- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 55% (last week: 57%); Remaining Schedule: at Temple, Buffalo
Bowling Green- Record: 4-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 55% (last week: 45%); Remaining Schedule: at Miami-OH, Akron, Toledo
UCLA- Record: 4-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 54% (last week: 48%); Remaining Schedule: at Wazzou, Arizona State, at USC
North Carolina- Record: 6-3 (needs 7 wins); Odds of bowl eligibility: 53% (last week: 53%); Remaining Schedule: at Miami-FL , at BC, at NC State
Florida State- Record: 4-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 52% (last week: 56%); Remaining Schedule: at Wake, Maryland, at Florida (note: there may end up being only 2 bowl eligible teams from the ACC Atlantic- BC and Clemson)
Iowa State- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 51% (last week: 54%); Remaining Schedule: Colorado, at Missouri(note: the fact that the Big 12 North may very well get 5 bowl bids is a crime against humanity, especially against human football fans who like to watch good bowl games)
Kansas State- Record: 6-4 (needs 7 wins); Odds of bowl eligibility: 51% (last week 45%); Remaining Schedule: Mizzou, at Nebraska (note: The Wildcats have a decent shot of winning the division, yet they also have a decent shot of not making a bowl. That pretty much sums up the Big 12 North in 2009)
Kansas- Record: 5-4; Odds of bowl eligiblity: 51% (last week: 68%); Remaining Schedule: Nebraska, at Texas, Missouri (note: If this team ends up falling short of a bowl bid, it would rank as possibly the biggest last-season collapse of all-time. Rivalry game with Mizzou come end up being a bowl play-in game)
Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likley be home for the holidays
Southern Miss- Record: 5-4; Odds of bowl eligibility: 49% (last week: 52%); Remaining Schedule: at Marshall, Tulsa, at ECU
Tulsa- Record: 4-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 47% (last week 47%); Remaining Schedule: ECU, at Southern Miss, Memphis
UConn- Record: 4-5; Odds of bowl eligbility: 46% (last week: 35%); Remaining Schedule: at ND, Syracuse, South Florida
UAB- Record: 4-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 45% (last week: 44%); Remaining Schedule: at Memphis, at ECU, Central Florida
Toledo- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 44% (last week: 51%); Remaining Schedule: Eastern Michigan, at Bowling Green
Michigan- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 43% (last week: 67%); Remaining Schedule: at Wisconsin, Ohio State
Purdue: Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligbility: 42% (last week 30%); Remaining Schedule: Michigan State, at Indiana
San Diego State- Record: 4-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 41% (last week: 45%); Remaining Schedule: Wyoming, at Utah, at UNLV
Wyoming- Record: 4-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 41% (last week: 38%); Remaining Schedule: at San Diego State, TCU, at Colorado State; (Note: odds improve after being blown out only because of how bad Colorado State has proven that it is.)
Wake Forest- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 37% (last week: 40%); Remaining Schedule: FSU, at Duke (Note: Even though the Deacons have proven they can play with anyone, their odds drop because this team just can’t seem to find a way to win close games this year)
Arizona State- Record: 4-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 33%; (last week: 35%) Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, at UCLA, Arizona
Army- Record: 3-6; Odds of bowl eligbility 28%; (last week 28%); Remaining Schedule: VMI, at North Texas, Navy
UTEP- Record: 3-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 25% (last week: 34%); Remaining Schedule: at SMU, at Rice, Marshall (Note: Probably the end of the Mike Price reign in El Paso)
Indiana- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 23% (last week: 33%); Remaining Schedule: at Penn State, Purdue
Duke- Record: 5-4 (needs 7 wins); Odds of bowl eligibility: 22% (last week: 37%); Remaining Schedule: GT, at Miami-FL, Wake Forest (Note: All the Duke bowl talk was premature and overblown. Last week’s loss really sealed their bowless fate.)
Bubble watch teams from last week who have now clinched bowl eligbility: Stanford, Northwestern, Kansas State
Bubble watch teams from last week who are now out of bowl contention:
This entry was posted on November 8, 2009 at 2:45 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.
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