Week 11 College Football Picks
Posted by deaconcat08 on November 10, 2009
I had mixed results last week, as my upset predictions were dead-on but my picks against the spread were quite mediocre (4-6). I still have a great overall record for the year (56-44), but hopefully I’m not experiencing a South Carolina-like late season downfall. At any rate, this week I’m fairly confident I’ll come away with a winning record again. These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.
Pick # 1: Tulane (+2.5) vs. Rice- Rice should not be favored against anybody this year, regardless of whether they are playing a college team, high school team, or Pop Warner team. Besides, Tulane is coming off a big win against UTEP, so they may finally be showing some promise under Coach Toldeo.
Pick # 2: Mississippi State (+12.5) vs. Alabama- I really like the Bulldogs here even though I’ve been high on Bama all year. The fact of the matter is that any team who has a good enough defense to control Bama’s mediocre offense will give the Tide a scare. Tennessee, LSU, and South Carolina have all proven this over the past few weeks, and I don’t expect a different result when Bama faces MSU’s solid D in Starkville on Saturday. Mississippi State also looked great on offense in their win over Kentucky two weeks ago and has been creepily good at home this year giving both Florida and LSU a run for their money. I honestly think that other than the Pitt-Cincy game this will be the best chance for any remaining unbeaten to go down before the SEC title game.
Pick # 3: Utah (+19.5) vs. TCU- What is going on with this line? It started at a ridiculously high 16.5 points and has shot up to 19.5. TCU has looked great the past few weeks, but keep in mind that Utah only has one loss this season and that is a respectable 7 point defeat in Autzen Stadium (a place where USC got trounced). I’m not disrespecting the Frogs by picking Utah to cover here because frankly, I don’t think the Utes should be 20 point dogs to Florida, Texas, Alabama, or anyone else.
Pick # 4: New Mexico State (+20.0) vs. Hawaii- Speaking of ridiculously large spreads! Both Hawaii and New Mexico State appear to be equally dismal to me with both possessing only one conference win (over Utah State) and a 3-6 overall record. Is a few hundred mile plane flight to Honolulu really going to make the Aggies that much worse?
Pick # 5: Western Michigan (-11.5) vs. Eastern Michigan- While this has been a down year for the Broncos, EMU is that much worse. The winless Eagles haven’t played a conference opponent to within 12 points, except for lowly Ball State, and Western Michigan has the offensive weapons to put up a lot of points.
Pick # 6: Maryland (+17.0) vs. Virginia Tech- As bad as the Terps have had all year, I don’t think the Hokies have the offense to blowout anybody, especially on the road.
Pick # 7: Michigan State (-2.0) vs. Purdue- The Boilermakers have surprised me all year, but I still don’t think they can get to a bowl in Hope’s first season. The Spartans have a ton to play for in this virtual bowl play-in game, and even though they’ve struggled on the road this year, MSU has too much talent to lose this one.
Pick # 8: Nebraska (-3.5) vs. Kansas- The Jayhawks are in the middle of one of the worst late-season collapses of all-time, losing 5 straight after starting the season 5-0. Meanwhile, the Huskers are on their way to claiming the Big 12 North title and could pose a real challenge to Texas in the conference title game. I don’t see this matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions being very close.
Pick #9: FAU (+3.5) vs. Arkansas State- Both of these teams have had extremely difficult seasons, finding themselves towards the bottom of the Sun Belt standings after being regarded as preseason conference title contenders. Top to bottom they are pretty evenly matched, but as a general rule when two teams of equally abysmal teams play each other, bet on the underdog if they are playing at home.
Pick # 10: Notre Dame (+7.0) vs. Pitt- If there is one thing that the Irish have proven this year, its that win or lose they like to play close games. In 2009, Notre Dame has won or lost every game by seven points or less except for blowout victories over Nevada and Wazzou. I expect this game to be close as well. As for Pitt, I think they are starting to get way too much hype. Let’s not forget that the Panthers haven’t beaten a top 25 team this season and that their one loss came to a horrible NC State squad. Time for the annual Wannstache letdown game?
Last Week’s Record: 4-6, Overall Record: 56-44