Week 11 College Football Conference Championship Analysis
Posted by deaconcat08 on November 15, 2009
Among my several week-in-review columns that I’m posting tonight, I’d like to give a brief analysis of each conference’s conference championship race. Bold teams have already clinched their division. Italicized divisions are the probable champions at this point in time.
ACC Atlantic- Clemson (all they need to do is beat UVA at next week, and they’ll finally get over the hump. A loss would open the door for BC would then have to win out.)
ACC Coastal- Georgia Tech
Big 12 North- Nebraska (they play Kansas State in de facto Big North title game this Saturday)
Big 12 South- Texas
SEC East- Florida
SEC West- Alabama
Big East- Cincinnati (play Pitt in de facto Big East title game on December 5th)
Big Ten- Ohio State
Pac-10- Oregon (this is a jumbled mess right now; explanation below)
- Oregon- (1) They’re in if they win out. However, if they lose to Zona this Saturday, they can still get in if they beat Oregon State, Stanford loses to Cal, and Arizona loses to Arizona State or USC. Odds of winning Pac-10: 45%
- Arizona- Pretty simple here. (1) If they win out, they’re in. If they lose to either USC, Oregon, or Arizona State, then they’re out. Odds of winning Pac-10: 20%
- Oregon State- I’m going to assume they roll over their high school-level opponent in Wazzou this Saturday, which will officially eliminate USC from the Pac-10 title race (Yah!). The Beavers get in if (1) they beat Oregon, and (2) if Zona loses to either Oregon, Arizona State, or USC. Odds of winning Pac-10: 20%
- Stanford- Need a lot of things to happen, but all of it is definitely within the realm of possibilities. They obviously (1) need to beat Cal Saturday night, and simultaneously, (2) Arizona needs to beat Oregon. If those two things happen, they will then (3) need Oregon to beat Oregon State in the Civil War and (4) have USC or Arizona State beat Zona. Odds of winning Pac-10: 15%.
Mountain West- TCU (All the Frogs have to do is beat either Wyoming or New Mexico and they’ll be WAC Champs. They won’t lose either game, so there is no point in talking about the other possibilities.)
WAC- Boise State (play Nevada in de facto WAC title game on November 27th)
C-USA East- East Carolina (the Pirates are the favorites right now, but UCF, Southern Miss, and believe it or not UAB are still all in contention. There are also multliple head-to-head matchups left between these teams, which creates too many different scenarios for me to discuss right now.)
C-USA West- SMU (In what is nothing short of a miraculous development, SMU controls its own destiny in the C-USA West. Houston’s loss drops them a game back from the Mustangs meaning that if SMU can win at Marshall and vs. Tulane in the next 2 weeks, then they’ll be in the title game. Pretty amazing for a team that hasn’t bowled since receiving the death penalty in mid-80′s.)
MAC East- Temple (If the Owls win at home against Kent State and Ohio loses to Northern Illinois on Saturday, then the Chippewas clinch the division title. If both Temple and Ohio win or if just Ohio wins, then they’ll play each other in a de facto division title game on Friday November 27th. However, if both teams were to lose on Saturday and Ohio were to beat Temple, then it would create a crazy tie for the division title that could also include Bowling Green and Kent State. Got it?)
MAC West- Central Michigan (If CMU wins at Ball State on Saturday and Northern Illinois loses against Kent State on Saturday, then the Chippewas clinch the division title. However, if either of those things don’t happen, then a de facto division title game will take place between those two teams on the Friday after Thanksgiving.)
Sun Belt- Troy (All the mighty Trojans have to do is beat either FAU or UL-Lafayette and they’ll be Sun Belt Champs for what seems like the 200th straight time. They won’t lose both of those games, so there is no point in talking about the other possibilities.)