Posted by deaconcat08 on November 16, 2009
I have now included every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible in this analysis. Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has in actually receiving a bid. This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference. It all depends on how many other teams are bowl eligible from a conference and how many total bids are available to that conference. The exception to this is for the Sun Belt conference teams, which I went ahead and assumed they need 7 wins to make it to a bowl. Also, next week’s games that could make or break a team’s bowl eligibility are italicized.
Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids-
South Florida- Record: 6-3 (needs 7 wins); Odds of bowl eligbility 80%; (last week 84%); Remaining Schedule: Louisville, Miami-FL, at UConn
Tennesseee- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 75% (last week: 80%); Remaining Schedule: Vandy, at Kentucky
Florida State- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 71% (last week: 52%); Remaining Schedule: Maryland, at Florida (note: there will only be two bowl eligibile teams from the ACC Atlantic if FSU were to slip up to Maryland)
Western Michigan- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 70% (last week: 65%); Remaining Schedule: Ball State
Bowling Green- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 65% (last week: 55%); Remaining Schedule: Akron, Toledo
Texas A & M- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 60% (last week: 66%); Remaining Schedule: Baylor, Texas
Marshall- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 59% (last week: 64%); Remaining Schedule: SMU, at UTEP
Kent State- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 55% (last week: 55%); Remaining Schedule: at Temple, Buffalo
UL-Monroe- Record: 6-4 (prob. needs 7 wins for a bid); Odds of bowl eligibility: 54% (last week: 59%); Remaining Schedule: at UL-Lafayette, MTSU (note: going for first bowl bid in school history.)
UCLA- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 54% (last week: 54%); Remaining Schedule: Arizona State, at USC
Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likley be home for the holidays
Wyoming- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 49% (last week: 41%); Remaining Schedule: TCU, at Colorado State
UConn- Record: 4-5; Odds of bowl eligbility: 46% (last week: 46%); Remaining Schedule: at ND, Syracuse, South Florida
Kansas- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligiblity: 45% (last week: 51%); Remaining Schedule: at Texas, Missouri (note: If this team ends up falling short of a bowl bid, it would rank as possibly the biggest last-season collapse of all-time. Rivalry game with Mizzou will decide their bowl fate)
UAB- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 45% (last week: 45%); Remaining Schedule: at ECU, Central Florida
Toledo- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 42% (last week: 44%); Remaining Schedule: Eastern Michigan, at Bowling Green
Tulsa- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 40% (last week 47%); Remaining Schedule: at Southern Miss, Memphis
Kansas State- Record: 6-5 (needs 7 wins); Odds of bowl eligibility: 38% (last week 51%); Remaining Schedule: Mizzou, at Nebraska (note: If the Wildcats beat Nebraska they win the Big 12 North, yet if they lose they are ineligible for a bowl game. That pretty much sums up the Big 12 North in 2009)
Michigan- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 32% (last week: 43%); Remaining Schedule: Ohio State
Mississippi State- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligbility 27%; (last week 30%); Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas, Ole Miss
Arizona State- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 25%; (last week: 33%) Remaining Schedule: at UCLA, Arizona
Army- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligbility 25%; (last week 28%); Remaining Schedule: at North Texas, Navy
UL-Lafayette- Record: 5-5 (will needs 7 wins to secure a bid); Odds of bowl eligibility: 23% (last week: 23%); Remaining Schedule: UL-Monroe, Troy (note: going for first bowl bid in school history.)
Duke- Record: 5-5 (needs 7 wins); Odds of bowl eligibility: 22% (last week: 22%); Remaining Schedule: at Miami-FL, Wake Forest
Baylor- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligbility 2o%; (last week 20%); Remaining Schedule: at Texas A & M, Texas Tech
San Diego State- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 15% (last week: 41%); Remaining Schedule: at Utah, at UNLV
Louisville- Record: 4-6; Odds of bowl eligbility 7%; (last week 5%); Remaining Schedule: at USF, Rutgers
Hawaii- Record: 4-6 (needs 7 wins); Odds of bowl eligibility: 3% (last week: 2%); Remaining Schedule: at San Jose State, Navy, Wisconsin
Bubble watch teams from last week who have now clinched bowl eligbility: Arkansas, SMU, UCF, Missouri, Iowa State, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Kentucky, North Carolina, Southern Miss
Bubble watch teams from last week who are now out of bowl contention: Purdue, Wake Forest, UTEP, Indiana
This entry was posted on November 16, 2009 at 4:36 am and is filed under Uncategorized.
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