Week 12 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For
Posted by deaconcat08 on November 18, 2009
I’m off to hot start this week picking games, as you can see that I picked both Wed. night games correctly in my picks of the week entry. As far as underdogs go, I had a decent performance picking upsets last week (3 for 6), but I was way off on my longshot pick, as MSU laid an egg against Bama. These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.
Northern Illinois (+1.0) vs. Ohio- This is a really interesting game because both teams are playing for their respective division title. The loser will be out of the running, while the winner will advance into a de facto division title game next weekend. See conference title entry below for more details. I really could see this game go either way because even though Ohio is at home, the Huskies are a tad bit more talented in my opinion.
Army (+2.0) vs. North Texas- The Mean Green have been much improved this year, but it has yet to be determined whether or not they did enough to keep Dodge employed as head coach. Army will be playing to keep its longshot bowl hopes alive, as a victory would give them a chance to earn their automatic bid to the EagleBank Bowl against Navy on December 12th. North Texas I’m sure would love to get a late-season home victory, but the Knights’ more-disciplined attack should propel them to victory.
LSU (+4.0) vs. Ole Miss- Don’t really know what to think about this game. Both of these teams have had somewhat disappointing seasons where their play has been up and down throughout, both at home and on the road. While LSU”s wins have been uninspiring, they still only have 2 losses and those are to the # 1 and # 3 ranked teams in the country. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has yet to beat a top 25 team, or anyone else who has the defensive prowess as LSU.
Arizona State (+5.0) vs. UCLA- I’m not giving up on my Sun Devils just yet. They still have an outside chance at a bowl game, and they’ll need to start with a win against the Bruins. Both of these teams are evenly-matched, and even though the game is in L.A, I see it coming right down to the wire.
Arizona (+6.0) vs. Oregon- See picks of the week entry below for analysis about this game.
Texas Tech (+6.5) vs. Oklahoma- Even though this game lacks the postseason implications that it usually has, it should still be entertaining. Everything I said about Ole Miss and LSU can be echoed here. Both teams have had disappointing seasons marred by erratic play. Injuries have been the major problem for the Sooners, while Texas Tech has failed to find a capable successor for Graham Harrell at quarterback. One thing I’ve noticed about Mike Leach’s teams over the years though is that they play well as an underdog, especially at home. Just ask Nebraska this year, Texas last year, and Oklahoma 2 years ago. In fact, since 1993 Texas Tech has won five out of the seven times they’ve been a home underdog by 3.5 to 7 points.
Longshot of the Week: Florida International (+44.5) vs. Florida- Just kidding…
The Real Longshot of the Week: Air Force (+10.0) vs. BYU- Other than their victory over Oklahoma, BYU has actually proven very little this year besides the fact that they are capable of putting up huge numbers against vastly inferior teams. Unfortunately for the Cougars, Air Force will not be a team that they can just roll over. In fact, the Falcons haven’t lost a game by more than 7 points this year and that includes a 3-point defeat to TCU, who manhandled BYU on the road a few weeks ago. My only hesitation in picking this game is that the Cougars’ offense is capable of putting up a ton of points at home. However, if Air Force can control the clock with their triple-option, then expect this game to come right down to the wire, and if it does, then the Falcons are definitely due a win in a close game (AF is 0-2 in OT games this season).