Posted by deaconcat08 on November 22, 2009
Every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible in this analysis. Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has in actually receiving a bid. This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference. It all depends on how many other teams are bowl eligible from a conference and how many total bids are available to that conference. The exception to this is for the Sun Belt conference teams, which I went ahead and assumed they need 7 wins to make it to a bowl. Also, next week’s games that could make or break a team’s bowl eligibility are italicized.
Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids-
UConn- Record: 5-5; Odds of bowl eligibility: 62% (last week: 46%); Remaining Schedule: Syracuse, South Florida
Kent State- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 55% (last week: 55%); Remaining Schedule: Buffalo
Wyoming- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 54% (last week: 49%); Remaining Schedule: , at Colorado State
Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays
Kansas- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 45% (last week: 45%); Remaining Schedule: Missouri (note: If this team ends up falling short of a bowl bid, it would rank as possibly the biggest last-season collapse of all-time. Rivalry game with Mizzou will decide their bowl fate)
UAB- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 45% (last week: 45%); Remaining Schedule: Central Florida
Toledo- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 38% (last week: 42%); Remaining Schedule: at Bowling Green
UL-Monroe- Record: 6-5 (prob. needs 7 wins for a bid); Odds of receiving bowl bid: 37% (last week: 54%); Remaining Schedule: MTSU (note: going for first bowl bid in school history.)
Army- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility 30%; (last week 25%); Remaining Schedule: Navy (note: see good thoughts/bad thoughts entry above for potential havoc they could cause)
UL-Lafayette- Record: 6-5 (prob. needs 7 wins for a bid); Odds of receiving bowl bid: 28% (last week: 23%); Remaining Schedule: Troy (note: going for first bowl bid in school history.)
Hawaii- Record: 5-6 (needs 7 wins); Odds of bowl eligibility: 5% (last week: 3%); Remaining Schedule: Navy, Wisconsin
Bubble watch teams from last week who have now clinched bowl eligbility: South Florida, Tennessee, Florida State (just barely), Bowling Green, Texas A &M, Marshall, UCLA
Bubble watch teams from last week who are now out of bowl contention: Kansas State, Tulsa, Michigan, Mississippi State, Arizona State, Duke, Baylor, San Diego State, Louisville, Western Michigan
This entry was posted on November 22, 2009 at 12:02 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.
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