These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.

Pitt (-3.0) vs. South Florida- The Bulls are better than I thought they would be this year in Big East play, but they’ve still yet to prove they can play with one of the “big 5 teams” in conference (Pitt, Syracuse, G’Town, Nova, and West Virginia).  They got shellacked by West Virginia at home a few weeks ago, and I expect to something similar tomorrow.

Clemson (-4.5) vs. Maryland- Littlejohn can be a very tough place to play, and the Tigers will be looking for a big showcase win to prove they aren’t in the midst of one of their typical late season slides.

Overall Record for picks this season: 4-5 (definitely room for improvement)

We are just a little more than a month away from the start of March Madness, so it’s time to see which Cinderella stories could emerge.  The mid-major conference tournaments are the source much of the early holiday season drama, as only the tourney champion will be able to put on their dancing shoes.  While almost all mid-major NCAA teams have the chance to play Cinderella come Christmas Day (aka the first round of the NCAA tourney), it is particularly special when these teams have an inspiring sentimental storyline.  Often times this involves a squad making its first trip to the Big Dance (see North Dakota State last year).  Other times there is a likable coach who warms the hearts of the nation (see Pete Carril in 1994).   Inevitably, when the second week of March comes around, these stories will come to fruition.  In the meantime, it’s worth looking at the standings and checking out which mid-major conference leaders/contenders could inspire us during ESPN’s annual championship week.  These are listed in alphabetical order by conference.

Maine Black Bears (America East)- Led by sophomore standout Gerald McLemore this perennial America East doormat is currently tied atop the America East standings.  They were alone at the top until today’s disappointing home loss to 2-20 UMBC, but we’ll just hope that game was a fluke.  If the Bears want to earn their first trip to the dance, they’ll want to win the conference regular season so that they can get home court throughout the tourney.  Besides this being a potentially incredible story, I have another reason for putting the Black Bears at #1 on this list.  I track all the visitation stats for this blog with Google Analytics, and in its six-month history I have had over 1,700 visitors from 10 countries (including Iraq, India, and Australia) and every U.S. state, except for  Maine and North Dakota.  I do realize many ad-filtering programs prevent Google Analytics from tracking all visitation data, but you would have thought that by now at least one of the documented visits would come from there.  Hopefully, with this profile on Maine Black Bear, someone from Maine will stumble their way on here.

Stony Brook (America East)-They lost to Maine by 6 on the road last week, but are still tied with them at the top of the A-East.  Even though the Black Bears would have to be considered a better Big Dance storyline from this conference, the Seawolves are also a Big Dance virgin with a great shot at getting in.

Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)- The Dolphins, which is by the way another great college nickname, haven’t danced since 1986 but are currently leading the A-Sun.  Many of you probably don’t realize that Jacksonville was the surprising national runner-up to UCLA in 1970.  It would be great to see a team with such an impressive Cinderella pedigree rejoin the dance. 

Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun)- The Church of Christ school has never danced, but they are only one game back of Jacksonville.

Coastal Carolina (Big South)- The Chanticleers, which is maybe the most absurd/commonly misspelled nickname in all of sports, are leading the Big South even though they haven’t danced since 1993.  It would certainly be fun to see the chaos in Myrtle Beach if Coastal went on to take the conference crown.

Harvard (Ivy League)-How is it possible that the Crimson hasn’t won the Ivy League since 1946?  It should be a fascinating two-horse conference race between them and Cornell in late February and early March.

Quinnipiac (Northeast)- They’ve knocked on the Big Dance door a few times recently, but have never made it through.   The Bobcats have another good chance this year, as they are tied with Robert Morris at the top of the conference standings.

Murray State (Ohio Valley)- The Racers used to be an annual Big Dance Cinderella threat, but it’s actually been 4 years since this squad has made it in.  Nevertheless, they are currently sporting an impressive 11-0 conference record and 20-3 overall mark, as they could be dangerous 13 or 14 seed in March. 

Western Carolina (Southern)-WCU has already claimed big wins over Louisville and Charleston thus far and are probably considered the current favorites to win the SoCon title.  What’s great about the Catamounts, besides the cool nickname of course, is that they almost pulled off the great sports upset of all-time the last time they danced.  In 1996, they came in as a 16-seed and had a three-point opportunity at the buzzer to knock off Purdue.  It’s arguably the closes 16/1 encounter ever.  Western won’t come in as a 16-seed this year, but they will definitely be a high-scoring/entertaining underdog to watch out for if they beat out Charleston for the conference crown.

College of Charleston (Southern)-Bobby Cremins back in the big dance for the first time since 1996?  What else needs to be said about this current Southern Conference frontrunner.

Prairie View (SWAC)- Because of their horrifyingly abysmal athletic program in the 1990’s, the Panthers will always be a great sentimental storyline.  They are currently only one game back of the conference lead.

Louisiana Tech (WAC)-With their impressive 6-1 conference record and 18-3 overall mark, this surprising Big Dance virgin actually has a shot at an at-large bid if they don’t take home the conferece tourney crown.

These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.

Charleston (+6.0) vs. Davidson- Not really sure where this spread came from unless they think Stephen Curry is going to come back and play for the Wildcats.  This is Davidson’s worst squad in years, and Charleston has looked very impressive since their upset of UNC.

Mississippi State (-3.0) vs. Arkansas- After Arkansas’ performance against Kentucky on Saturday, I don’t think they have a chance to beat any team that will be in the Big Dance field.

Ole Miss (-4.0) vs. Auburn- On the other hand, the Tigers played Kentucky close, but other than that their SEC results are pretty abysmal.

Yesterday’s Record: 1-2, Overall Record: 3-3

I got off to a pretty good start going 2-1 with my picks last night.  I could have gone 3-0 if Downey had not decided play like Michael Jordan.  At any rate, here are my picks for tonight’s games.  These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.

 Illinois (-1.0) vs. Penn State- Hard not to pick an NCAA bubble squad to beat a team that is 0-7 in conference play thus far.

Temple (-1.0) vs. Charlotte- The 49ers are playing well right now, but I don’t think they have what it takes to beat a team currently in the top half of the NCAA tourney field.

Marshall (+1.5) vs. Memphis- Going with my first home team here, as the Thundering Herd are a legitimate sleeper to watch out for as the holiday season approaches.

Yesterday’s Record: 2-1, Overall Record: 2-1

I don’t plan on putting  tips out there everyday for college bball, but when I get enough time I’ll throw a couple of games out there I like.  I’m also going to keep track of my overall record (as long as it remains respectable), just to see if I can match my basketball success.  These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.

Kentucky (-6.5) vs. South Carolina- If the Cats play anything like they did against the Hogs, then they should win this one by 40.  The Colonial Center isn’t exactly an intimidating place to play.

North Carolina (-1.0) vs. NC State- On the other hand, The RBC Center can be a difficult place to play, as NC State has a pension for pulling off home upsets against unfocused opposition.  However, UNC needs this win, and unlike past seasons, they will not be overlooking the Pack here.

Northwestern (+11.0) vs. Minnesota- A matchup between two NIT teams on the outskirts of the Big Dance bubble.  Minnesota has lost 3 in a row, while the Wildcats come in off of a huge victory over Illinois.  Give the Gophers the advantage since they are playing at home, but this game should be closer than the 11 point spread.

Going will all roadies tonight.  We’ll see what happens.

Here is this week’s edition of Brad-ketology.  There are just a couple of things you need to know if you haven’t read this column before.  The teams are displayed below on an S-curve, so they are ranked from left to right within each seeding line.  The italicized teams are ones predicted to win their conference tourney and gain an automatic bid to the dance.  For the conferences who currently have NCAA tourney teams, it is assumed that one of those teams will win their conference tourney.  If not, then a stolen bid would result, and the number of at-large bids would drop.  If an italicized NIT team wins their conference tourney (as I am predicting), then an at-large spot will open up in the NIT field.  However, with the NIT, keep in mind that typically between 5-8 spots will be taken by small conference regular season champs who lose their conference tourneys and therefore get NIT auto bids.  In years past, I have also included CBI and CIT seedings, but with so many teams electing not to play in that tourney, it makes it nearly impossible to predict the field. 

NCAA Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Kentucky, Kansas, Syracuse, Villanova

2-seeds: Texas, Michigan State, Duke, Purdue

3-seeds:  West Virginia, Georgetown, Tennesee, Kansas State

4-seeds:  Brigham Young, Gonzaga, Temple, Pittsburgh

5-seeds:  Wisconsin, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Butler

6-seeds: Clemson, Connecticut, Northern Iowa, Vanderbilt

7-seeds: Ohio State, Baylor, Missouri, Mississippi State

8-seeds: Florida State, Wake Forest, Xavier, New Mexico

9-seeds: Saint Mary’s, North Carolina, Rhode Island, California

10-seeds: UAB, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Texas A & M

11-seeds: UNLV, Virginia Tech, Cornell, Siena

12-seeds: Maryland, Richmond, Minnesota, Arizona State

13-16 seeds: mid-major conference champions

NIT Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Cincinnati, Louisiana Tech, Louisville, Illinois

2-seeds: Notre Dame, Washington, Wichita State, Florida

3-seeds: Northwestern, William & Mary, Tulsa, Virginia

4-seeds: Old Dominion, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Miami-FL

5-seeds: Charlotte, Texas Tech, Harvard, San Diego State

6-seeds: Marquette, Marshall, Northeastern, Michigan 

7-seeds: VCU, Illinois State, UTEP, Memphis

8-seeds: Providence, George Mason, Washington State, NC State

Ranking of Other Postseason Contenders: Alabama, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Western Carolina, Charleston, Saint Louis, Nevada, Utah State, South Carolina, Boston College, South Florida, Stanford

With college football season over and NFL playoffs as boring as ever, I’m ready to start dreaming about March.  Therefore, it is time to publish the first edition of Brad-ketology (my version of NCAA/NIT mock seeding).   Brad-ketology is a little different than other NCAA tourney predictors in that it is much more expansive, as it also includes the NIT field and bubble.  

As far as formatting goes, teams are displayed on a S-curve, so they are ranked from left to right within each seeding line.  The italicized teams are ones predicted to win their conference tourney and gain an automatic bid to the dance.  For the conferences who currently have NCAA tourney teams, it is assumed that one of those teams will win their conference tourney.  If not, then a stolen bid would result, and the number of at-large bids would drop.  If an italicized NIT team wins their conference tourney (as I am predicting), then an at-large spot will open up in the NIT field.  However, with the NIT, keep in mind that typically between 5-8 spots will be taken by small conference regular season champs who lose their conference tourneys and therefore get NIT auto bids.In years past, I have also included CBI seedings, but with so many teams electing not to play in that tourney, it makes it nearly impossible to predict the field. 

 Brad-ketology columns will be published at least once a week (probably on Mondays) and more often than that when it gets closer to tourney time.  Let me know if you have any comments or disagreements.

NCAA Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Kentucky, Kansas, Syracuse, Texas

2-seeds: Villanova, Tennessee, Kansas State, Michigan State

3-seeds: Duke, Purdue, West Virginia, Georgetown

4-seeds: Pittsburgh, Brigham Young, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga

5-seeds: Temple, Wisconsin, Ole Miss, Clemson

6-seeds: Mississippi State, Ohio State, Butler, Northern Iowa

7-seeds: Vanderbilt, Connecticut, Baylor, Missouri

8-seeds: Xavier, Florida State, Rhode Island, Wake Forest

9-seeds: Dayton, North Carolina, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s

10-seeds: Texas A & M, UAB, New Mexico, California

11-seeds: UNLV, Washington, Oklahoma State, Cornell

12-seeds: Arizona State, Siena, Louisiana Tech, Virginia Tech

13-seeds: Cincinnati, 3 mid-major conference winners

14-16 seeds: mid-major conference champions

NIT Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Louisville, Wichita State, William & Mary, Illinois

2-seeds: Minnesota, Maryland, Richmond, St. John’s

3-seeds: Notre Dame, Marquette, Florida, Virginia

4-seeds: Tulsa, Northwestern, Marshall, Harvard

5-seeds: San Diego State, Texas Tech, VCU, Charlotte

6-seeds: Michigan, Miami-FL, Old Dominion, NC State

7-seeds: Washington State, Missouri State, Western Carolina, Illinois State

8-seeds: Northeastern, Seton Hall, Providence, George Mason

Ranking of Other Postseason Contenders: UTEP, Iowa State, Memphis, Charleston, Oklahoma, Saint Louis, Oregon, Alabama, South Carolina, Nevada, Boston College, Utah State, Southern Illinois, New Mexico State, La Salle

The college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how I fared with my preseason predictions compared to the experts.  This is the third season I’ve conducted an in-depth analysis  of my preseason picks, and while I ended up being more accurate than the experts average in 2007, last year I was beaten soundly.  The final outcome of my matchup with the experts this season is somewhat difficult to determine.  I proved to be more accurate making intraconference picks; however, my full Divison 1-A rankins were worse (see below).  Likewise, some of my surprise picks were dead-on and others were way-off.  In regard to the bowl games, I predicted more bowls correctly, while Phil Steele had more correct bowl slots.  You will see all the analysis on how my preseason predictions fared in the next several entries, but I thought I’d also offer my final ranking of the 120 Division 1-A college football teams.  Please note this will also likely be my last college football entry for a while.  It is time to turn to college bball season, as I will be debuting my Brad-ketology column this Thursday.

1.  Boise State

2.  Alabama

3.   TCU

4.  Texas

5.  Florida

6.  Cincinnati

7.  Ohio State

8.  Iowa

9.  Penn State

10.  Brigham Young

11.  Central Michigan

12.  Virginia Tech

13.  Utah

14.  Wisconsin

15.  Pittsburgh

16.  Oregon

17.  Georgia Tech

18.  Nebraska

19.  Ole Miss

20.  Texas Tech

21.  Southern Cal

22.  Rutgers

23.  Navy

24.  Middle Tennessee State

25.  Oklahoma State

26.  LSU

27.  Miami-FL

28.  Clemson

29.  Troy

30.  West Virginia

31.  Houston

32.  Oklahoma

33.  Temple

34.  Stanford

35.  East Carolina

36.  Arkansas

37.  Connecticut

38.  Auburn

39.  Arizona

40.  Georgia

41.  Oregon State

42.  Northwestern

43.  California   

44.  Air Force

45.  South Florida

46.  North Carolina

47.  Missouri

48.  Boston College 

49.  Tennessee

50.  Florida State

51.  SMU

52.  South Carolina

53.  Idaho

54.  Kentucky

55.  UCLA

56.  Wyoming

57.  Iowa State

58.  Marshall

59.  Fresno State

60.  Nevada

61.  Ohio

62.  Central Florida

63.  Notre Dame

64.  Kansas State

65.  Bowling Green

66.  Southern Miss

67.  Northern Illinois

68.  Texas A & M

69.  Michigan State

70.  Minnesota

71.  Wake Forest

72.  Mississipppi State

73.  Kansas

74.  Purdue        

75.  Washington

76.  Michigan 

77.  NC State 

78.   Duke

79.  Hawaii   

80.  Tulsa

81.  Army

82.  Western Michigan

83.  UL-Monroe

84.  Indiana

85.  UNLV

86.  Arizona State

87.  Kent State

88.  Baylor

89.  Buffalo

90.  Louisville

91.  UAB

92.  Syracuse

93.  Virginia

94.  UL-Lafayette

95.  Colorado

96.  Florida Atlantic

97.  Illinois

98.  Maryland

99.  Vanderbilt

100.  Toledo

101.  San Diego State

102.  Louisiana Tech

103.  UTEP

104.  Utah State

105.  Colorado State

106.  Akron

107.  Arkansas State

108.  Tulane

109.  New Mexico State

110.  Florida International

111.  San Jose State

112.  Memphis

113.  North Texas

114.  Washington State

115.  Rice

116.  Ball State

117.  Miami-OH

118.  New Mexico

119.  Eastern Michigan

120.  Western Kentucky

The college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how I fared with my preseason predictions compared to the experts.  This is the third season I’ve conducted an in-depth analysis  of my preseason picks, and while I ended up being more accurate than the experts average in 2007, last year I was beaten soundly.  The final outcome of my matchup with the experts this season is somewhat difficult to determine.  I proved to be more accurate making intraconference picks; however, my full Divison 1-A rankins were worse (see below).  Likewise, some of my surprise picks were dead-on and others were way-off.  In regard to the bowl games, I predicted more bowls correctly, while Phil Steele had more correct bowl slots.  I will now methodically rehash my preseason rankings, and the experts’, to demonstrate our brilliance, as well as our stupidity.

For this entry, I will transform the preseason predictions I made on this blog in August into a table format and compare them to the experts preseason rankings and each team’s postseason ranking (according to the CBS Sports final top 120 poll).  From there, I will subtract both my preseason picks and the experts’ picks by the postseason result to determine which of us was more accurate in our preseason analysis of that team.  You will see that the experts’ narrowly edged me out in this team-by-team comparison.  I also calculated the total numerical disparity each of us had for all 120 teams (the experts’ won there too).  That number is listed below in the results section.  Preseason picks that end up exactly correct are bolded, and there was a surprising number of those this year.  But yes you can go ahead and start laughing at my preseason national championship pick.  By the way, the so-called experts’ national ranking consists of preseason polls made  by NationalChamps.net, Tim Hyland, Collegefootball.net, Lindy’s, Sporting News, Athlon, Phil Steele, and Rivals.com.

	Team	Experts	Postseason	Brad diff.	Expert diff.	Winner
1	Southern Cal	4	21	-20	-17	Experts
2	Florida	1	3	-1	-2	Brad
3	Texas	2	4	-1	-2	Brad
4	Oklahoma	3	26	-22	-23	Brad
5	Virginia Tech	8	11	-6	-3	Experts
6	Oklahoma State	6	33	-27	-27	Tie
7	California	14	41	-34	-27	Experts
8	Ole Miss	10	24	-16	-14	Experts
9	Kansas	23	74	-65	-51	Experts
10	Illinois	32	99	-89	-67	Experts
11	Ohio State	7	5	6	2	Experts
12	LSU	12	18	-6	-6	Tie
13	Alabama	5	1	12	4	Experts
14	Penn State	9	9	5	0	Experts
15	South Carolina	49	55	-40	-6	Experts
16	Clemson	29	23	-7	6	Experts
17	South Florida	44	44	-27	0	Experts
18	Georgia	13	34	-16	-21	Brad
19	Boise State	16	2	17	14	Experts
20	Texas Tech	30	22	-2	8	Brad
21	West Virginia	27	27	-6	0	Experts
22	Nebraska	22	16	6	6	Tie
23	Oregon State	33	36	-13	-3	Experts
24	Florida State	21	47	-23	-26	Brad
25	Notre Dame	19	66	-41	-47	Brad
26	Pittsburgh	34	15	11	19	Brad
27	North Carolina	18	42	-15	-24	Brad
28	Rutgers	37	28	0	9	Brad
29	Oregon	11	12	17	-1	Experts
30	Brigham Young	28	10	20	18	Experts
31	Georgia Tech	15	13	18	2	Experts
32	Cincinnati	25	7	25	18	Experts
33	TCU	17	6	27	11	Experts
34	Tennessee	36	48	-14	-12	Experts
35	NC State	35	84	-49	-49	Tie
36	Iowa	20	8	28	12	Experts
37	Miami-FL	31	17	20	14	Experts
38	Stanford	63	29	9	34	Brad
39	Michigan State	26	62	-23	-36	Brad
40	Utah	24	19	21	5	Experts
41	East Carolina	42	38	3	4	Brad
42	Arizona	53	35	7	18	Brad
43	Minnesota	52	70	-27	-18	Experts
44	Arkansas	39	30	14	9	Experts
45	Colorado	51	96	-51	-45	Experts
46	Wake Forest	50	73	-27	-23	Experts
47	Northwestern	57	40	7	17	Brad
48	Missouri	40	46	2	-6	Brad
49	Wisconsin	43	14	35	29	Experts
50	Boston College	46	43	7	3	Experts
51	UCLA	54	58	-7	-4	Experts
52	Southern Miss	44	68	-16	-24	Brad
53	Nevada	58	52	1	6	Brad
54	Houston	47	39	15	8	Experts
55	Arizona State	41	77	-22	-36	Brad
56	Connecticut	62	32	24	30	Brad
57	Michigan	59	80	-23	-21	Experts
58	Baylor	68	79	-21	-11	Experts
59	Vanderbilt	56	107	-48	-51	Brad
60	Washington	84	76	-16	8	Experts
61	Kentucky	48	56	5	-8	Brad
62	Central Michigan	55	20	42	35	Experts
63	Navy	69	25	38	44	Brad
64	Tulsa	61	81	-17	-20	Brad
65	Louisville	76	90	-25	-14	Experts
66	Auburn	38	31	35	7	Experts
67	Maryland	64	106	-39	-42	Brad
68	Kansas State	79	63	5	16	Brad
69	Virginia	66	85	-16	-19	Brad
70	Purdue	77	72	-2	5	Brad
71	Western Michigan	71	93	-22	-22	Tie
72	Air Force	60	45	27	15	Experts
73	UTEP	73	102	-29	-29	Tie
74	Troy	65	53	21	12	Experts
75	Texas A & M	74	64	11	10	Experts
76	Miss. State	72	71	5	1	Experts
77	Fresno State	75	51	26	24	Experts
78	Iowa State	82	57	21	25	Brad
79	Duke	83	78	1	5	Brad
80	UAB	106	88	-8	18	Brad
81	Buffalo	92	87	-6	5	Experts
82	Indiana	81	83	-1	-2	Brad
83	Northern Illinois	78	69	14	9	Experts
84	UNLV	95	86	-2	9	Brad
85	Temple	96	60	25	36	Brad
86	Syracuse	94	91	-5	3	Experts
87	Louisiana Tech	67	98	-11	-31	Brad
88	Kent State	110	89	-1	21	Brad
89	Florida Atlantic	89	95	-6	-6	Tie
90	Colorado State	70	104	-14	-34	Brad
91	Central Florida	98	61	30	37	Brad
92	Army	115	82	10	33	Brad
93	Bowling Green	88	67	26	21	Experts
94	SMU	108	49	45	59	Brad
95	Ohio	86	54	41	32	Experts
96	San Diego State	107	97	-1	10	Brad
97	Akron	102	105	-8	-3	Experts
98	Washington State	97	115	-17	-18	Brad
99	San Jose State	99	111	-12	-12	Tie
100	Toledo	104	100	0	4	Brad
101	Arkansas State	85	103	-2	-18	Brad
102	Hawaii	90	75	27	15	Experts
103	Marshall	80	65	38	15	Experts
104	Wyoming	103	59	45	44	Experts
105	Utah State	109	101	4	8	Brad
106	New Mexico	87	118	-12	-31	Brad
107	Memphis	93	112	-5	-19	Brad
108	Ball State	100	110	-2	-10	Brad
109	UL-Lafayette	111	92	17	19	Brad
110	FIU	105	108	2	-3	Brad
111	UL-Monroe	113	94	17	19	Brad
112	Middle Tenn. St.	101	37	75	64	Experts
113	Rice	91	113	0	-22	Brad
114	Eastern Michigan	116	119	-5	-3	Experts
115	Tulane	112	109	6	3	Experts
116	Miami-OH	114	117	-1	-3	Brad
117	North Texas	120	116	1	4	Brad
118	Idaho	118	50	68	68	Tie
119	New Mexico State	117	114	5	3	Experts
120	Western Kentucky	119	120	0	1	Brad

  

   

Final Outcome:
Teams: Experts win (56-55), 9 ties
Total Score: Experts win (2,145-2,181)
Exactly Right: Brad wins (4-3);

You will see more analysis of all these teams in my other season in review entries below.

The college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how I fared with my preseason predictions compared to the experts.  This is the third season I’ve conducted an in-depth analysis  of my preseason picks, and while I ended up being more accurate than the experts average in 2007, last year I was beaten soundly.  The final outcome of my matchup with the experts this season is somewhat difficult to determine.  I proved to be more accurate making intraconference picks; however, my full Divison 1-A rankins were worse.  Likewise, some of my surprise picks were dead-on and others were way-off.  In regard to the bowl games, I predicted more bowls correctly, while Phil Steele had more correct bowl slots.  I will now methodically rehash my preseason rankings, and the experts’, to demonstrate our brilliance, as well as our stupidity.

In this entry we will look at what teams surprised/disappointed the preseason experts the most, which is a nice way of saying, “wow, no one saw this coming.”

Teams that surprised the nation the most:

1.  Idaho- finished 68 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted

2.  Middle Tennessee State- finished 64 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted

3.  SMU- finished 59 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted

4.  Navy- finished 44 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted

4.  Wyoming- finished 44 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted

6.  Central Florida- finished 37 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted

7.  UNLV- finished 36 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted

8.  Stanford- finished 34 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted 

9.  Ohio- finished 32 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted

10.  Wisconsin- finished 29 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted

Teams that disappointed the nation the most:

1.  Illinois- finished 67 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted

2.  Kansas- finished 51 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted

2.  Vanderbilt- finished 51 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted

4.  NC State- finished 49 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted

5.  Notre Dame- finished 47 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted

6.  Colorado- finished 45 spots lower nationally thanthe experts predicted

7.  Maryland- finished 42 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted

8.  Michigan State- finished 36 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted

8.  Arizona State- finished 36 spots lower nationally thanthe experts predicted

10.  Colorado State- finished 34 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted

The college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how I fared with my preseason predictions compared to the experts.  This is the third season I’ve conducted an in-depth analysis  of my preseason picks, and while I ended up being more accurate than the experts average in 2007, last year I was beaten soundly.  The final outcome of my matchup with the experts this season is somewhat difficult to determine.  I proved to be more accurate making intraconference picks; however, my full Divison 1-A rankins were worse.  Likewise, some of my surprise picks were dead-on and others were way-off.  In regard to the bowl games, I predicted more bowls correctly, while Phil Steele had more correct bowl slots.  I will now methodically rehash my preseason rankings, and the experts’, to demonstrate our brilliance, as well as our stupidity.

These are the teams that surprised me/disappointed the most, which is a nice way of saying, “wow, I really messed up my forecasting of these teams”.

Teams that surprised me the most:

1.  Middle Tennessee State- finished 75 spots higher nationally than I predicted

2  Idaho- finished 68 spots higher nationally than I predicted

3.  SMU- finished 45 spots higher nationally than I predicted

3.  Wyoming- finished 45 spots higher nationally than I predicted

5.  San Diego State- finished 41 spots higher nationally than I predicted

6.  Navy- finished 38 spots higher nationally than I predicted

7.  Marshall- finished 38 spots higher nationally than I predicted

8.  Wisconsin- finished 35 spots higher nationally than I predicted

8.  Auburn- finished 35 spots higher nationally than I predicted

10.  Central Florida- finished 30 spots higher nationally than I predicted

Teams that disappointed me the most:

1.  Illinois- finished 89 spots lower nationally than I predicted (my worst preseason pick ever)

2.  Kansas- finished 65 spots lower nationally than I predicted       

3.  Colorado- finished 51 spots lower nationally than I predicted

4.  NC State- finished 49 spots lower nationally than I predicted

5.  Vanderbilt- finished 48 spots lower nationally than I predicted

6.  Notre Dame- finished 41 spots lower nationally than I predicted

7.  South Carolina- finished 40 spots lower nationally than I predicted 

8.  Maryland- finished 39 spots lower nationally than I predicted

9.  California- finished 34 spots lower nationally than I predicted

10.  UTEP- finished 29 spots lower nationally than I predicted

Here are my preseason disappointment teams in order of the relative disparity between my picks and the experts’ average while also taking into account the relevance of the pick.  The experts’ average, which is represented in parentheses, consists of the avg. of the Athlon, Phil Steele, Sporting News, CBS, and various other sources.  The team’s actual postseason finish is posted right after that.

Bold teams are squads that ended up disappointing the nation (or at least their fan base) just as I predicted.  Italicized teams are ones that ended up being much better than I predicted them to be.  Normal font represents teams that exceed my lowly expectations for them, but also performed worse than most of the experts believed they would.  

When determining my final results, I conduct two separate analyses.  First, I simply count how many I picked correctly, how many incorrectly, and how many “pushes”/ties that I had.  The second form of analysis I use is an adjusted score, where I get/lose more points for my top disappointment teams than I do for lesser disappointment picks.  For example, I earn 10 points for a correct first pick, 9 point for a correct second pick, etc.  Likewise, I lose 10 points for an incorrect first pick, I get -9 points for an incorrect second pick, etc.

 1.  Oregon- Preseason Prediction- 29th in nation (11), 4th in Pac-10 (3); Postseason Finish- 12th in nation, 1st in Pac-10.  

2.  Georgia Tech- Preseason Prediction- 31st in nation (15); 3rd in ACC Coastal (2); Postseason Finish- 13th in nation, 1st in ACC Coastal.

3.  Michigan State- Preseason Prediction- 39th in nation (26), 5th in Big 10 (3); Postseason Finish- 62nd in nation, 6th in Big 10.

4.  Arizona State- Preseason Prediction- 55th in nation (41), 8th in Pac-10 (7); Postseason Finish- 77th in nation, 9th in Pac-10.

5.  Kentucky- Preseason Prediction- 61st in nation (48); 6th in SEC East (5); Postseason Finish- 56th in nation, 5th in SEC East.

6.  Middle Tennessee State- Preseason Prediction- 112 in nation (101), 7th in Sun Belt (4); Postseason Finish- 37th in nation, 2nd in Sun Belt. (Please see my “what were you thinking” blog entry above.)

7.  Memphis- Preseason Prediction- 107th in nation (93), 6th in C-USA East (3); Postseason Finish- 112th in nation, 6th in C-USA East.

8.  New Mexico- Preseason Prediction- 106th in nation (87), 9th in MWC (7); Postseason Finish- 118th in nation, 8th in MWC.

9.  Louisiana Tech- Preseason Prediction- 87th in nation (67), 4th in WAC (3); Postseason Finish- 98th in nation, 7th in WAC.

10.  Ball State- Preseason Prediction- 108th in nation (100), 4th in MAC West (3); Postseason Finish- 110th in nation, 6th in MAC West.

Disappointment Team Results: 6 correct, 4 wrong (ties 2007 for personal best)

Adjusted Score: -5 (best ever was 22 in 2007)

Here are my preseason surprise teams in order of the relative disparity between my picks and the experts’ average while also taking into account the relevance of the pick.  The experts’ average, which is represented in parentheses, consists of the avg. of the Athlon, Phil Steele, Sporting News, CBS, and various other sources.  The team’s actual postseason finish is posted right after that.

Bold teams are squads that ended up surprising the nation (or at lease part of it) just as I predicted.  Italicized teams are ones that ended up being much worse than I predicted them to be.  Normal font represents teams that didn’t quite meet my lofty expectations for them, but also performed better than most of the experts believed they would.  

When determining my final results, I conduct two separate analyses.  First, I simply count how many I picked correctly, how many incorrectly, and how many “pushes”/ties that I had.  The second form of analysis I use is an adjusted score, where I get/lose more points for my top surprise teams than I do for lesser surprise picks.  For example, I earn 10 points for a correct first pick, 9 point for a correct second pick, etc.  Likewise, I lose 10 points for an incorrect first pick, I get -9 points for an incorrect second pick, etc.

1.   Illinois- Preseason Predictions- 10^th in nation (32), 1^st in Big 10 (5); Postseason Finish- 99th in nation, 9th in Big 10.  (Please see my “what was I thinking” entry)

2.  South Florida- Preseason Prediction- 17^th in nation (44), 1^st in Big East (T-4); Postseason Finish- 44th in nation, 6th in Big East.

3.  Kansas- Preseason Prediction- 9^th in nation (23), 1^st in Big 12 North (T-1); Postseason Finish- 74th in nation, 6th in Big North. (Please see my “what was I thinking” entry)

4.  South Carolina- Preseason Prediction- 15^th in nation (49), 2^nd in SEC East (4); Postseason Finish- 55th in nation, 4th in SEC East. 

5.  Stanford- Preseason Prediction- 38^th in nation (63), 5^th in Pac-10 (T-7); Postseason Finish- 29th in nation, 4th in PAC-10. 

6.  Clemson- Preseason Prediction- 16^th in nation (29), 1^st in ACC Atlantic (3); Postseason Finish- 23rd in nation, 1st in ACC Atlantic. 

7.  UAB- Preseason Prediction- 80^th in nation (106), 3^rd in C-USA East (6); Postseason Finish- 88th in nation, 5th in C-USA East.

8.  Kent State- Preseason Prediction- 88^th in nation (110), 3^rd in MAC East (6); Postseason Finish- 89th in nation, 4th in MAC East.

9.  Oregon State- Preseason Prediction- 23^rd in nation (33), 3^rd in Pac-10 (4); Postseason Finish- 36th in nation, 3rd in PAC-10.

10.  Army- Preseason Prediction- 92nd in nation (115); Postseason Finish- 82nd in nation.

Surprise Team Results: 5 correct, 3 wrong, 2 ties (personal best: 9 correct, 3 wrong in 2007)

Adjusted Score: -10 (worst-ever; best ever was 64 in 2007)

The college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how I fared with my preseason predictions compared to the experts.  This is the third season I’ve conducted an in-depth analysis  of my preseason picks, and while I ended up being more accurate than the experts average in 2007, last year I was beaten soundly.  The final outcome of my matchup with the experts this season is somewhat difficult to determine.  I proved to be more accurate making intraconference picks; however, my full Divison 1-A rankins were worse.  Likewise, some of my surprise picks were dead-on and others were way-off.  In regard to the bowl games, I predicted more bowls correctly, while Phil Steele had more correct bowl slots.  I will now methodically rehash my preseason rankings, and the experts’, to demonstrate our brilliance, as well as our stupidity.

Here are my preseason bowl predictions.  My correct picks are marked in bold. 

Date	Bowl	Teams
19-Dec	New Mexico	Air Force	Fresno State
19-Dec	St. Petersburg	Cincinnati	Southern Miss
20-Dec	New Orleans	Troy	UTEP
22-Dec	Las Vegas	Arizona	Brigham Young
23-Dec	Poinsettia	Northern Illinois	Florida Atlantic
24-Dec	Hawaii	Nevada	Tulsa
26-Dec	Motor City	Central Michigan	Wisconsin
26-Dec	Meinke Car Care	NC State	West Virginia
26-Dec	Emerald	Miami-FL	Stanford
27-Dec	Music City	Georgia Tech	Tennessee
28-Dec	Independence	TCU	Kansas State
29-Dec	Eagle Bank	UAB	Boston College
29-Dec	Champs Sports	Minnesota	North Carolina
30-Dec	Humanitarian	Louisiana Tech	UNLV
30-Dec	Holiday	Oregon State	Kansas
30-Dec	Texas	Missouri	Navy
31-Dec	Armed Forces	Utah	Houston
31-Dec	Sun	Oregon	Nebraska
31-Dec	Insight	Northwestern	Colorado
31-Dec	Peach	Georgia	Clemson
1-Jan	Outback	Iowa	South Carolina
1-Jan	Gator	Florida State	Notre Dame
1-Jan	Capital One	Penn State	Alabama
1-Jan	Rose	California	Illinois
1-Jan	Sugar	Ole Miss	Oklahoma
2-Jan	International	Rutgers	Western Michigan
2-Jan	PapaJohns.com	Pittsburgh	Boise State
2-Jan	Cotton	Oklahoma State	LSU
2-Jan	Liberty	East Carolina	Arkansas
2-Jan	Alamo	Michigan State	Texas Tech
4-Jan	Fiesta	Texas	South Florida
5-Jan	Orange	Virginia Tech	Ohio State
6-Jan	GMAC	Buffalo	Wake Forest
7-Jan	BCS	Southern Cal	Florida

Final Score:

Brad: 12 slots correctly predicted (3 bowls)- My best ever

Phil Steele: 15 slots correctly predicted (1 bowl)

Each season I evaluate my preseason conference picks and compare them to the experts ranking (average of Phil Steele, Athlon, CBS Sports, The Sporting News, and College Football Poll).  I was more accurate than the experts average in 2007 but lost badly last year.  This year I once again outforecasted the experts as you will see in the blog entries below.  Here is a quick summary of all the results:

 BCS Teams: Experts 26, Brad 25

All 1-A Teams: Brad 49, Experts 42

BCS Conferences: Brad 2 (ACC, Pac-10), Experts 1 (Big 12); note: we tied in our predictions for the 3 other BCS conferences

All 1-A Conferences: Brad 5 (ACC, Pac-10, C-USA, MAC, MWC), Experts 3 (Big 12, WAC, Sun Belt)

Bold font indicates the winner in each category.

Italicized font indicates conferences I’ve picked more accurately than the Experts for 3 years in a row.