Brad’s College Football Season in Review- Disappointment Teams
Posted by deaconcat08 on January 18, 2010
Here are my preseason disappointment teams in order of the relative disparity between my picks and the experts’ average while also taking into account the relevance of the pick. The experts’ average, which is represented in parentheses, consists of the avg. of the Athlon, Phil Steele, Sporting News, CBS, and various other sources. The team’s actual postseason finish is posted right after that.
Bold teams are squads that ended up disappointing the nation (or at least their fan base) just as I predicted. Italicized teams are ones that ended up being much better than I predicted them to be. Normal font represents teams that exceed my lowly expectations for them, but also performed worse than most of the experts believed they would.
When determining my final results, I conduct two separate analyses. First, I simply count how many I picked correctly, how many incorrectly, and how many “pushes”/ties that I had. The second form of analysis I use is an adjusted score, where I get/lose more points for my top disappointment teams than I do for lesser disappointment picks. For example, I earn 10 points for a correct first pick, 9 point for a correct second pick, etc. Likewise, I lose 10 points for an incorrect first pick, I get -9 points for an incorrect second pick, etc.
1. Oregon- Preseason Prediction- 29th in nation (11), 4th in Pac-10 (3); Postseason Finish- 12th in nation, 1st in Pac-10.
2. Georgia Tech- Preseason Prediction- 31st in nation (15); 3rd in ACC Coastal (2); Postseason Finish- 13th in nation, 1st in ACC Coastal.
3. Michigan State- Preseason Prediction- 39th in nation (26), 5th in Big 10 (3); Postseason Finish- 62nd in nation, 6th in Big 10.
4. Arizona State- Preseason Prediction- 55th in nation (41), 8th in Pac-10 (7); Postseason Finish- 77th in nation, 9th in Pac-10.
5. Kentucky- Preseason Prediction- 61st in nation (48); 6th in SEC East (5); Postseason Finish- 56th in nation, 5th in SEC East.
6. Middle Tennessee State- Preseason Prediction- 112 in nation (101), 7th in Sun Belt (4); Postseason Finish- 37th in nation, 2nd in Sun Belt. (Please see my “what were you thinking” blog entry above.)
7. Memphis- Preseason Prediction- 107th in nation (93), 6th in C-USA East (3); Postseason Finish- 112th in nation, 6th in C-USA East.
8. New Mexico- Preseason Prediction- 106th in nation (87), 9th in MWC (7); Postseason Finish- 118th in nation, 8th in MWC.
9. Louisiana Tech- Preseason Prediction- 87th in nation (67), 4th in WAC (3); Postseason Finish- 98th in nation, 7th in WAC.
10. Ball State- Preseason Prediction- 108th in nation (100), 4th in MAC West (3); Postseason Finish- 110th in nation, 6th in MAC West.
Disappointment Team Results: 6 correct, 4 wrong (ties 2007 for personal best)
Adjusted Score: -5 (best ever was 22 in 2007)