Brad’s College Football Season in Review- National Rankings
Posted by deaconcat08 on January 18, 2010
The college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how I fared with my preseason predictions compared to the experts. This is the third season I’ve conducted an in-depth analysis of my preseason picks, and while I ended up being more accurate than the experts average in 2007, last year I was beaten soundly. The final outcome of my matchup with the experts this season is somewhat difficult to determine. I proved to be more accurate making intraconference picks; however, my full Divison 1-A rankins were worse (see below). Likewise, some of my surprise picks were dead-on and others were way-off. In regard to the bowl games, I predicted more bowls correctly, while Phil Steele had more correct bowl slots. I will now methodically rehash my preseason rankings, and the experts’, to demonstrate our brilliance, as well as our stupidity.
For this entry, I will transform the preseason predictions I made on this blog in August into a table format and compare them to the experts preseason rankings and each team’s postseason ranking (according to the CBS Sports final top 120 poll). From there, I will subtract both my preseason picks and the experts’ picks by the postseason result to determine which of us was more accurate in our preseason analysis of that team. You will see that the experts’ narrowly edged me out in this team-by-team comparison. I also calculated the total numerical disparity each of us had for all 120 teams (the experts’ won there too). That number is listed below in the results section. Preseason picks that end up exactly correct are bolded, and there was a surprising number of those this year. But yes you can go ahead and start laughing at my preseason national championship pick. By the way, the so-called experts’ national ranking consists of preseason polls made by NationalChamps.net, Tim Hyland, Collegefootball.net, Lindy’s, Sporting News, Athlon, Phil Steele, and Rivals.com.
| Team | Experts | Postseason | Brad diff. | Expert diff. | Winner | |
| 1 | Southern Cal | 4 | 21 | -20 | -17 | Experts |
| 2 | Florida | 1 | 3 | -1 | -2 | Brad |
| 3 | Texas | 2 | 4 | -1 | -2 | Brad |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 3 | 26 | -22 | -23 | Brad |
| 5 | Virginia Tech | 8 | 11 | -6 | -3 | Experts |
| 6 | Oklahoma State | 6 | 33 | -27 | -27 | Tie |
| 7 | California | 14 | 41 | -34 | -27 | Experts |
| 8 | Ole Miss | 10 | 24 | -16 | -14 | Experts |
| 9 | Kansas | 23 | 74 | -65 | -51 | Experts |
| 10 | Illinois | 32 | 99 | -89 | -67 | Experts |
| 11 | Ohio State | 7 | 5 | 6 | 2 | Experts |
| 12 | LSU | 12 | 18 | -6 | -6 | Tie |
| 13 | Alabama | 5 | 1 | 12 | 4 | Experts |
| 14 | Penn State | 9 | 9 | 5 | 0 | Experts |
| 15 | South Carolina | 49 | 55 | -40 | -6 | Experts |
| 16 | Clemson | 29 | 23 | -7 | 6 | Experts |
| 17 | South Florida | 44 | 44 | -27 | 0 | Experts |
| 18 | Georgia | 13 | 34 | -16 | -21 | Brad |
| 19 | Boise State | 16 | 2 | 17 | 14 | Experts |
| 20 | Texas Tech | 30 | 22 | -2 | 8 | Brad |
| 21 | West Virginia | 27 | 27 | -6 | 0 | Experts |
| 22 | Nebraska | 22 | 16 | 6 | 6 | Tie |
| 23 | Oregon State | 33 | 36 | -13 | -3 | Experts |
| 24 | Florida State | 21 | 47 | -23 | -26 | Brad |
| 25 | Notre Dame | 19 | 66 | -41 | -47 | Brad |
| 26 | Pittsburgh | 34 | 15 | 11 | 19 | Brad |
| 27 | North Carolina | 18 | 42 | -15 | -24 | Brad |
| 28 | Rutgers | 37 | 28 | 0 | 9 | Brad |
| 29 | Oregon | 11 | 12 | 17 | -1 | Experts |
| 30 | Brigham Young | 28 | 10 | 20 | 18 | Experts |
| 31 | Georgia Tech | 15 | 13 | 18 | 2 | Experts |
| 32 | Cincinnati | 25 | 7 | 25 | 18 | Experts |
| 33 | TCU | 17 | 6 | 27 | 11 | Experts |
| 34 | Tennessee | 36 | 48 | -14 | -12 | Experts |
| 35 | NC State | 35 | 84 | -49 | -49 | Tie |
| 36 | Iowa | 20 | 8 | 28 | 12 | Experts |
| 37 | Miami-FL | 31 | 17 | 20 | 14 | Experts |
| 38 | Stanford | 63 | 29 | 9 | 34 | Brad |
| 39 | Michigan State | 26 | 62 | -23 | -36 | Brad |
| 40 | Utah | 24 | 19 | 21 | 5 | Experts |
| 41 | East Carolina | 42 | 38 | 3 | 4 | Brad |
| 42 | Arizona | 53 | 35 | 7 | 18 | Brad |
| 43 | Minnesota | 52 | 70 | -27 | -18 | Experts |
| 44 | Arkansas | 39 | 30 | 14 | 9 | Experts |
| 45 | Colorado | 51 | 96 | -51 | -45 | Experts |
| 46 | Wake Forest | 50 | 73 | -27 | -23 | Experts |
| 47 | Northwestern | 57 | 40 | 7 | 17 | Brad |
| 48 | Missouri | 40 | 46 | 2 | -6 | Brad |
| 49 | Wisconsin | 43 | 14 | 35 | 29 | Experts |
| 50 | Boston College | 46 | 43 | 7 | 3 | Experts |
| 51 | UCLA | 54 | 58 | -7 | -4 | Experts |
| 52 | Southern Miss | 44 | 68 | -16 | -24 | Brad |
| 53 | Nevada | 58 | 52 | 1 | 6 | Brad |
| 54 | Houston | 47 | 39 | 15 | 8 | Experts |
| 55 | Arizona State | 41 | 77 | -22 | -36 | Brad |
| 56 | Connecticut | 62 | 32 | 24 | 30 | Brad |
| 57 | Michigan | 59 | 80 | -23 | -21 | Experts |
| 58 | Baylor | 68 | 79 | -21 | -11 | Experts |
| 59 | Vanderbilt | 56 | 107 | -48 | -51 | Brad |
| 60 | Washington | 84 | 76 | -16 | 8 | Experts |
| 61 | Kentucky | 48 | 56 | 5 | -8 | Brad |
| 62 | Central Michigan | 55 | 20 | 42 | 35 | Experts |
| 63 | Navy | 69 | 25 | 38 | 44 | Brad |
| 64 | Tulsa | 61 | 81 | -17 | -20 | Brad |
| 65 | Louisville | 76 | 90 | -25 | -14 | Experts |
| 66 | Auburn | 38 | 31 | 35 | 7 | Experts |
| 67 | Maryland | 64 | 106 | -39 | -42 | Brad |
| 68 | Kansas State | 79 | 63 | 5 | 16 | Brad |
| 69 | Virginia | 66 | 85 | -16 | -19 | Brad |
| 70 | Purdue | 77 | 72 | -2 | 5 | Brad |
| 71 | Western Michigan | 71 | 93 | -22 | -22 | Tie |
| 72 | Air Force | 60 | 45 | 27 | 15 | Experts |
| 73 | UTEP | 73 | 102 | -29 | -29 | Tie |
| 74 | Troy | 65 | 53 | 21 | 12 | Experts |
| 75 | Texas A & M | 74 | 64 | 11 | 10 | Experts |
| 76 | Miss. State | 72 | 71 | 5 | 1 | Experts |
| 77 | Fresno State | 75 | 51 | 26 | 24 | Experts |
| 78 | Iowa State | 82 | 57 | 21 | 25 | Brad |
| 79 | Duke | 83 | 78 | 1 | 5 | Brad |
| 80 | UAB | 106 | 88 | -8 | 18 | Brad |
| 81 | Buffalo | 92 | 87 | -6 | 5 | Experts |
| 82 | Indiana | 81 | 83 | -1 | -2 | Brad |
| 83 | Northern Illinois | 78 | 69 | 14 | 9 | Experts |
| 84 | UNLV | 95 | 86 | -2 | 9 | Brad |
| 85 | Temple | 96 | 60 | 25 | 36 | Brad |
| 86 | Syracuse | 94 | 91 | -5 | 3 | Experts |
| 87 | Louisiana Tech | 67 | 98 | -11 | -31 | Brad |
| 88 | Kent State | 110 | 89 | -1 | 21 | Brad |
| 89 | Florida Atlantic | 89 | 95 | -6 | -6 | Tie |
| 90 | Colorado State | 70 | 104 | -14 | -34 | Brad |
| 91 | Central Florida | 98 | 61 | 30 | 37 | Brad |
| 92 | Army | 115 | 82 | 10 | 33 | Brad |
| 93 | Bowling Green | 88 | 67 | 26 | 21 | Experts |
| 94 | SMU | 108 | 49 | 45 | 59 | Brad |
| 95 | Ohio | 86 | 54 | 41 | 32 | Experts |
| 96 | San Diego State | 107 | 97 | -1 | 10 | Brad |
| 97 | Akron | 102 | 105 | -8 | -3 | Experts |
| 98 | Washington State | 97 | 115 | -17 | -18 | Brad |
| 99 | San Jose State | 99 | 111 | -12 | -12 | Tie |
| 100 | Toledo | 104 | 100 | 0 | 4 | Brad |
| 101 | Arkansas State | 85 | 103 | -2 | -18 | Brad |
| 102 | Hawaii | 90 | 75 | 27 | 15 | Experts |
| 103 | Marshall | 80 | 65 | 38 | 15 | Experts |
| 104 | Wyoming | 103 | 59 | 45 | 44 | Experts |
| 105 | Utah State | 109 | 101 | 4 | 8 | Brad |
| 106 | New Mexico | 87 | 118 | -12 | -31 | Brad |
| 107 | Memphis | 93 | 112 | -5 | -19 | Brad |
| 108 | Ball State | 100 | 110 | -2 | -10 | Brad |
| 109 | UL-Lafayette | 111 | 92 | 17 | 19 | Brad |
| 110 | FIU | 105 | 108 | 2 | -3 | Brad |
| 111 | UL-Monroe | 113 | 94 | 17 | 19 | Brad |
| 112 | Middle Tenn. St. | 101 | 37 | 75 | 64 | Experts |
| 113 | Rice | 91 | 113 | 0 | -22 | Brad |
| 114 | Eastern Michigan | 116 | 119 | -5 | -3 | Experts |
| 115 | Tulane | 112 | 109 | 6 | 3 | Experts |
| 116 | Miami-OH | 114 | 117 | -1 | -3 | Brad |
| 117 | North Texas | 120 | 116 | 1 | 4 | Brad |
| 118 | Idaho | 118 | 50 | 68 | 68 | Tie |
| 119 | New Mexico State | 117 | 114 | 5 | 3 | Experts |
| 120 | Western Kentucky | 119 | 120 | 0 | 1 | Brad |
| Final Outcome: | |||
| Teams: Experts win (56-55), 9 ties | |||
| Total Score: Experts win (2,145-2,181) | |||
| Exactly Right: Brad wins (4-3); | |||
You will see more analysis of all these teams in my other season in review entries below.