Brad’s College Football Season in Review- Preseason Surprise Teams
Posted by deaconcat08 on January 18, 2010
Here are my preseason surprise teams in order of the relative disparity between my picks and the experts’ average while also taking into account the relevance of the pick. The experts’ average, which is represented in parentheses, consists of the avg. of the Athlon, Phil Steele, Sporting News, CBS, and various other sources. The team’s actual postseason finish is posted right after that.
Bold teams are squads that ended up surprising the nation (or at lease part of it) just as I predicted. Italicized teams are ones that ended up being much worse than I predicted them to be. Normal font represents teams that didn’t quite meet my lofty expectations for them, but also performed better than most of the experts believed they would.
When determining my final results, I conduct two separate analyses. First, I simply count how many I picked correctly, how many incorrectly, and how many “pushes”/ties that I had. The second form of analysis I use is an adjusted score, where I get/lose more points for my top surprise teams than I do for lesser surprise picks. For example, I earn 10 points for a correct first pick, 9 point for a correct second pick, etc. Likewise, I lose 10 points for an incorrect first pick, I get -9 points for an incorrect second pick, etc.
1. Illinois- Preseason Predictions- 10th in nation (32), 1st in Big 10 (5); Postseason Finish- 99th in nation, 9th in Big 10. (Please see my “what was I thinking” entry)
2. South Florida- Preseason Prediction- 17th in nation (44), 1st in Big East (T-4); Postseason Finish- 44th in nation, 6th in Big East.
3. Kansas- Preseason Prediction- 9th in nation (23), 1st in Big 12 North (T-1); Postseason Finish- 74th in nation, 6th in Big North. (Please see my “what was I thinking” entry)
4. South Carolina- Preseason Prediction- 15th in nation (49), 2nd in SEC East (4); Postseason Finish- 55th in nation, 4th in SEC East.
5. Stanford- Preseason Prediction- 38th in nation (63), 5th in Pac-10 (T-7); Postseason Finish- 29th in nation, 4th in PAC-10.
6. Clemson- Preseason Prediction- 16th in nation (29), 1st in ACC Atlantic (3); Postseason Finish- 23rd in nation, 1st in ACC Atlantic.
7. UAB- Preseason Prediction- 80th in nation (106), 3rd in C-USA East (6); Postseason Finish- 88th in nation, 5th in C-USA East.
8. Kent State- Preseason Prediction- 88th in nation (110), 3rd in MAC East (6); Postseason Finish- 89th in nation, 4th in MAC East.
9. Oregon State- Preseason Prediction- 23rd in nation (33), 3rd in Pac-10 (4); Postseason Finish- 36th in nation, 3rd in PAC-10.
10. Army- Preseason Prediction- 92nd in nation (115); Postseason Finish- 82nd in nation.
Surprise Team Results: 5 correct, 3 wrong, 2 ties (personal best: 9 correct, 3 wrong in 2007)
Adjusted Score: -10 (worst-ever; best ever was 64 in 2007)