Brad’s College Football Season in Review- The “What was I thinking” entry
Posted by deaconcat08 on January 18, 2010
The college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how I fared with my preseason predictions compared to the experts. This is the third season I’ve conducted an in-depth analysis of my preseason picks, and while I ended up being more accurate than the experts average in 2007, last year I was beaten soundly. The final outcome of my matchup with the experts this season is somewhat difficult to determine. I proved to be more accurate making intraconference picks; however, my full Divison 1-A rankins were worse. Likewise, some of my surprise picks were dead-on and others were way-off. In regard to the bowl games, I predicted more bowls correctly, while Phil Steele had more correct bowl slots. I will now methodically rehash my preseason rankings, and the experts’, to demonstrate our brilliance, as well as our stupidity.
These are the teams that surprised me/disappointed the most, which is a nice way of saying, “wow, I really messed up my forecasting of these teams”.
Teams that surprised me the most:
1. Middle Tennessee State- finished 75 spots higher nationally than I predicted
2 Idaho- finished 68 spots higher nationally than I predicted
3. SMU- finished 45 spots higher nationally than I predicted
3. Wyoming- finished 45 spots higher nationally than I predicted
5. San Diego State- finished 41 spots higher nationally than I predicted
6. Navy- finished 38 spots higher nationally than I predicted
7. Marshall- finished 38 spots higher nationally than I predicted
8. Wisconsin- finished 35 spots higher nationally than I predicted
8. Auburn- finished 35 spots higher nationally than I predicted
10. Central Florida- finished 30 spots higher nationally than I predicted
Teams that disappointed me the most:
1. Illinois- finished 89 spots lower nationally than I predicted (my worst preseason pick ever)
2. Kansas- finished 65 spots lower nationally than I predicted
3. Colorado- finished 51 spots lower nationally than I predicted
4. NC State- finished 49 spots lower nationally than I predicted
5. Vanderbilt- finished 48 spots lower nationally than I predicted
6. Notre Dame- finished 41 spots lower nationally than I predicted
7. South Carolina- finished 40 spots lower nationally than I predicted
8. Maryland- finished 39 spots lower nationally than I predicted
9. California- finished 34 spots lower nationally than I predicted
10. UTEP- finished 29 spots lower nationally than I predicted