Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist

For the first time since I started my preview guide, I am changing the order of my conference rankings.  Since 2007, I have ranked the conferences: 1) SEC, 2) Big 12, 3) Pac-10, 4) Big 10, 5) ACC, 6) Big East, 7) Mountain West, (8) WAC, 9) C-USA, 10) MAC, and 11) Sun Belt.  That is about where the conference RPIs have stacked up in each of those seasons.  However, I am officially moving the C-USA up the rankings past the WAC.  The reason being is that this conference now lays claim to six of the top 15 non-BCS teams according to my national rankings.  Those six teams should all make bowl games and have great chances of knocking off BCS opponents in the St. Petersburg Bowl and Liberty Bowl.  They also could have a squad that make a dark horse run at a BCS bid, as the Houston Cougars will win lots of games by putting up more points than any team in the country.

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

C-USA East

1.  Central Florida (56)- Rob Calabrese may be one of the best quarterbacks you’ve never heard of.  Now that he doesn’t have to battle for his starting job with former Wake Forest transfer Brett Hodges expect him to shine in this junior season.  The Knights are also the most balanced team in the conference with few weaknesses on either the offensive or defensive sides of the ball.  The problem is that UCF must travel to Houston during the regular season, and a loss their will likely give Houston home field advantage in their rematch in the conference title game.  I just don’t see this team beating Keenum’s crew on the road, which is why I’m calling them to win the division but fall short of the conference crown.  (Postseason Prediction: St. Petersburg Bowl vs. Connecticut)

2.  Marshall (82)- The Herd really surprised me last year by making their first bowl game in five years and winning their first since 2002.  They have 14 starters back and get UCF at home, but a new coach with new schemes has me calling for them to finish just a bit short of a division title. (Postseason Prediction: EagleBank Bowl vs. NC State)

3.  UAB (91)- I kinda took a shot in the dark last year by going with my gut and picking UAB and Kent State as two of my top surprise teams.  Both of these squads exceeded most everyone’s expectations, as each came within just a few plays of making a bowl game.  As you saw in my MAC preview, I am calling for Kent State to finally get over the hump and qualify for their first bowl game since 1972.  Unfortunately I can’t make the same prediction for the Blazers.  I think the C-USA is too strong and their schedule too tough for them to get to six or seven wins this season. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

4.  Southern Miss (93)- Only three offensive starters return on a unit that was surprisingly forced to carry the defense at times last season.  Fedora will have a difficult time running his high octane offense with this inexperience group and the Golden Eagles will take a major step back this year, much like their division rival ECU- see below. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

5.  East Carolina (95)- Yes, many Pirate fans aren’t going to like this prediction, especially with the excitement stemming from a new coach and a new stadium.  However, the sad truth is that the Pirates will not be very good this year.  First of all, I wasn’t crazy about the Ruffin McNeill hire, as his defensive units consistently prevented Texas Tech from contending for the Big 12 title.  Also, the schedule is brutal with the Pirates having to play three ACC foes and Navy out of conference.  Finally, only two starters return on defense, one of the lowest totals in the country.  The Pirates should be back to bowl eligibility in a couple of years, but don’t expect more than 3 or 4 wins out of the 2010 squad. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

6.  Memphis (112)- They have a new popular coach, but new schemes and a new attitude won’t just magically turnaround a 2-10 program that is in complete disarray.  Larry Porter’s rebuilding job with be a long-term process, and with a brutal schedule, the Tigers may be hard pressed to get a victory this season. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

C-USA West

1.  HOUSTON (28)- There really is no team on the schedule that the Cougars can’t beat, and they may in fact be favored in all 13 of their games.  The toughest test will come in week 3 at UCLA, and I’m even not sure if the Bruins have the offensive firepower to hang with Houston.  However, I do see this squad dropping a couple of games somewhere down the line because their inept defense frequently keeps inferior opponents in the game.  The Cougars will win the conference and QB Keenum will make a longshot Heisman run. (Postseason Prediction: Liberty Bowl vs. Tennessee; not sure if the C-USA team has ever been favored over their SEC opponent in this game, but the Cougars will definitely be favored here.)

2.  SMU (69)- Yes, I do realize I have capitalized the name SMU, but I’m doing that just because that is how to properly it, not because I am predicting them to win the conference.  That’s not say however that they won’t at least make a run at the conference crown.  The Mustangs shocked the nation with a Christmas Eve blowout of Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl last season, and they should carry that momentum with them into their 2010 campaign.  The death penalty curse if finally off their back, they have 15 returning starters, and they will get to play Houston at home on homecoming in late October.  After having the unique distinction of coaching a one-loss team and a one-win team in consecutive seasons, June Jones is returning SMU football to prominence.  (Postseason Prediction: Hawaii Bowl vs. Hawaii; June Jones redemption game!)

3.  Tulsa (74)- Aside from putting up a good fight against Boise, the Golden Hurricane had quite a disappointing season last year.  I think the 9 returning offensive starters finally play up to their potential this season and have Tulsa once again contending for a division title and playing in a bowl game. (Postseason Prediction: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Northern Illinois)

4.  UTEP (80)- After their back-to-back bowl trips in 2004 and 2005, people expected the Miners to be a perennial C-USA powerhouse under Mike Price.  Unfortunately, things haven’t really panned out that way as UTEP has come up short of bowl eligibility in four consecutive seasons.  However, with Trevor Vittaoe coming back for what seems like his 15th season at quarterback, the Miners will take advantage of an easy non-conference schedule to get 6 or 7 wins and a bowl bid.  (Postseason Prediction: New Orleans Bowl vs. Middle Tennessee State; expect the Miners to have quite a culture shock as they travel from maybe the most boring place in the country in El Paso, TX to maybe the most exciting place in the country in New Orleans.)

5.  Tulane (114)- For some reason, the Bob Toledo experiment just hasn’t worked out in New Orleans.  I really liked this hire initially, but unfortunately Toledo just hasn’t been able to bring in the talent to achieve the kind of success he had at UCLA.  This will probably be his last year as the Green Wave will once again flounder around at the bottom of the conference. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

6.  Rice (116)- The Owls had an epic collapse last season after their Cinderella 2008 campaign.  Now, the Owls are faced with three non-conference games versus bowl-quality BCS opponents.  Eighteen returning starters isn’t necessarily a good thing if they aren’t very good players.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)