Brad’s 2010 Mountain West Predictions
Posted by deaconcat08 on July 15, 2010
To summarize my non-BCS conference rankings so far, I’m calling for the C-USA and Sun Belt to be better than usual and for their be down years in the MAC and WAC. Believe it or not, I’m also going to predict that the Mountain West will be weaker this season. TCU will again be among the nation’s elite teams, but after that I see most of the teams in the league taking a step back this season for various reasons. Don’t get me wrong, the MWC will still be the best of the little guys, but I just don’t think you will see the results necessary to convince Bill Hancock and company that this conference deserves a BCS auto bid in the future.
The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps. The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally. Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason. Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks. Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.
1. TCU (5)- I’ll give the Horned Frogs at least a 50/50 chance of running the table again, but even if they do, then no one will likely care. Boise seems to be the team that is getting all the non-BCS hype this season, and with the loss of their superstar Defensive End Jerry Hughes, I think the Frogs will simply be dismissed as a slightly weaker version of last year’s squad. However, I’m predicting they still make a BCS game and get a shot at my predicted Big 12 Champ, Oklahoma. (Postseason prediction: Fiesta Bowl vs. Oklahoma; this will be the first of two BCS matchups between Big 12 teams and non-BCS powerhouses.)
2. Utah (34)- The Utes will once again have to rely on their offense to carry them this season, as Jordan Wynn will lead a unit with eight returning starters. Meanwhile, only four come back on defense including no linebackers and only one member of the secondary. Their opener versus Pitt at home will be huge. (Postseason Prediction: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Arizona; Brigham Young’s odd Las Vegas Bowl streak will finally come to an end.)
3. San Diego State (61)- Yes, this pick may drop a few jaws, but I got to go with my gut on a couple of these surprise picks each season. Brady Hoke can flat-out coach and you’ll see him produce some solid results this season, as the Aztecs will become a surprise bowl team. (Postseason Prediction: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Navy; this bowl will be happy to have the hometown team participate.)
4. Brigham Young (66)- As you can see, I am calling for a shakeup in the Big 3, as I am predicting BYU to not finish in the top third of this conference. They’ll still make a bowl game, but major personnel changes will result in a rebuilding year in Provo. (Postseason Prediction: Independence Bowl vs. Boston College; it’s going to be the battle between the catholics and the mormons!)
5. Wyoming (73)- Head Coach Dave Christensen clearly has this program going in the right direction after a dramatic win in last year’s New Mexico Bowl. The Cowboys may be more talented than last year’s squad, but a tough schedule has me calling for a return postseason trip to Albuquerque. (Postseason Prediction: New Mexico Bowl vs. Kent State; )
6. Air Force (88)- As you can see, I am definitely predicting a major shake up in the traditional power structure of this conference. Major personnel changes are the big reason why, and why I am picking Air Force to end their streak of three straight bowl games. For the Falcons, the offensive line will be the unit that will be their achilles’ heel this season. Their inexperienced and undersized blockers will hinder them from successfully running their traditionally potent option attack. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)
7. UNLV (101)- Tough schedule along with a new coach with new schemes will prevent the Rebels from making many forward strides this season. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)
8. Colorado State (103)- Where has this once prominent program gone? They always play the rival Buffaloes well, but this team has been miles away from the upper echelon MWC teams who they previously challenged on an annual basis. Defense will be solid, but the offense will keep this team down near the conference basement. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)
9. New Mexico (106)- No one has had a more disastrous first year at a job than Mike Locksley, who was overwhelmed with both on the field and off the field problems. Now, they have to develop a freshman quarterback with a schedule that is torturous at best. In fact, I’m predicting every single one of their home opponents to be in a bowl game this postseason. I’m not sure there is another team in the country that can say that. Getting two or three wins this yeah will be quite an accomplishment for this squad.. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)