Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist

Many feared that conference realignment might hurt the ACC as rumors swirled of possible defections by Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson.  In the end, the conference was unaffected by the changes and still looks to overcome its stigma of being a “basketball-only conference”.  The problem with the ACC has not necessarily been its depth, but the perennial lack of national championship contenders.  The ACC hasn’t had a team make a legitimate title run  since Miami in the early 2000s, which is by far the longest drought of all the conferences.  Unfortunately, that will again be this conference’s downfall in 2010.  Miami and Florida State will be much improved, but both teams are miles away from the dominant squads they had in the 80s and 90s.  The Coastal Division will actually be one of the deepest divisions in any conference, but expect for its top 4 teams to just beat each other senseless.  The ACC will definitely showcase some good football this season, but I’m afraid the title game, which is being played in Charlotte for the first-time ever, will once again be the most overlooked and least important of all of the championship week games. 

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

ACC Atlantic

1.  Florida State (19)- Many people are predicting that Christian Ponder makes a dark horse Heisman run this year.  However, based on some of last year’s dreadful performances (i.e. vs. Clemson), I just don’t see it happening.  In fact, E.J. Manuel could and probably should see a little time behind center to give the Noles another running threat in the backfield.  The Noles have underachieved for three straight years now, but I think they finally take back the division crown by being the most athletic and experienced squad in a division that saw several of its stars plundered by both the NFL and MLB drafts.  (Postseason Prediction: Chick-Fil-A Bowl vs. Georgia; I refused to call the former Peach Bowl by its commercialized name for the longest time.  However, now that Chick-Fil-A has introduced its delicious spicy chicken sandwich, I’ve finally agreed to call this bowl by its new age name.)

2.  Boston College (35)- If cancer survivor Mark Herzlich has a great season, it will definitely be the sentimental storyline of the year in all of sports.  I’ve been impressed that the Eagles have continued to make bowl games and contend for division titles despite major personnel changes the last past few seasons.  They’ve lost two head coaches in consecutive seasons and star quarterback Matt Ryan, yet they played in five consecutive bowl games.  This year’s Eagles squad actually has some familiar faces on it, as they return the head coach, running back, quarterback, and 12 other starters from last year’s 8-5 team.  This stability, as well as a fairly weak schedule, might give BC a chance to make an improbable run at a division title.  (Postseason Prediction: Independence Bowl vs. Brigham Young ; the battle of the Catholics and Mormons!)

3.  Clemson (43)- The losses of Jacoby Ford, C.J. Spiller, and possibly Kyle Parker will certainly take its toll on the Tigers this season.  However, the Tigers are still very talented on both lines and have a potential superstar in Tajh Boyd at quarterback.  Clemson will once again be an upper echelon ACC team, but I think the Tigers are a year or two away from winning the division again. (Postseason prediction: Meineke Car Care Bowl vs. Notre Dame; two of football’s most evil empires collide)

4.  NC State (51)- With Russell Wilson and six other starters coming back, the Pack should be able to put some points up this season.  Unfortunately, NC State’s downfall has been its defense that gave up 30+ points in 8 games last year.  The defense only returns 5 starters, which is not necessarily be a bad thing if their replacements are more talented.  The Pack have only qualified for one bowl game in the past 4 years, but they should be able to get to six wins this season thanks to a pretty favorable non-conference slate.  (Postseason Prediction: EagleBank Bowl vs. Marshall) 

5.  Wake Forest (65)- All the remnants of the 2006 Cinderella season are finally gone, as every player on that Orange Bowl squad has now graduated.  Gone too is the underdog swagger that enabled that team overachieve like they did.  Last year, the Deacs packed it in down the stretch and ended up falling short of a bowl for the first time in four years.  Now, there are major, major, major questions at quarterback with as many as three or four guys in contention for the starting spot as the season approaches.  They are loaded at running back and receiver but a new option attack on offense may be difficult to adjust to.  Don’t see Wake making a bowl this year, but I don’t expect a disastrous downfall to the conference basement either.  (Postseason Prediction: N Bowl Game)    

6.  Maryland (76)- The Terrapins football program is exhibit A of why the coach-in-waiting system is not  always a good idea.  Friedgen’s struggles the last few years have many calling for a complete overhaul of this program, despite the fact that offensive coordinator James Franklin has been already been named the successor.  After last year’s 2-10 season, the morale is low in College Park, and the Terps will continue to struggle this season, as inexperience at the quarterback and in the secondary will greatly hinder their success.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

ACC Coastal

1.  MIAMI-FL (13)- I’m not going as far as to say that “the U is back”, but this Canes team is the best they’ve had in several years.  If Jacory Harris can become a more consistent dual threat quarterback, then the Canes can win this division and setup an intriguing matchup against in-state rival FSU in the conference title game.  We’ll find out a lot about this team when they play at Ohio State in Week 2 of the season.  (Postseason Prediction: Orange Bowl vs. West Virginia)

2.  Virginia Tech (15)- With Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Williams, and Darren Evans returning, this team should have one of the most athletic backfields in the conference, if not the country.  Strangely enough, this teams’ problem could be its defense, which has always been its strength under Frank Beamer.  Only four starters return on that side of the ball, so I’m going to call for a runner-up finish in the Coastal.  Opener against Boise is huge and should be cause for concern because of VT’s poor play in its past three seasons openers. (Postseason Prediction: Champs Sports Bowl vs. Pittsburgh; this will be the best pre-New Year’s bowl game)

3.  Georgia Tech (30)- Any doubters of Paul Johnson’s success, such as myself, should be silenced now.  The Jackets took home the conference crown last year after I pegged them as one of my disappointment teams in the preseason.  Nesbitt returns at quarterback but the loss of Jonathan Dwyer has me calling for a few less wins this season.  They also have to play two of the other three division title contenders on the road.  (Postseason Prediction: Sun Bowl vs. Stanford; why the ACC agreed to send a representative to this game?  I can’t think of a worse location for a bowl besides maybe New York City.) 

4.  North Carolina (33)- The Tar Heels are a trendy conference title pick this season, as they bring back 19 starters including several top NFL prospects.  However, I still have questions about quarterback T.J. Yates and his abysmal TD/INT ratio from last year (14/15).  This seems to be a program that just hasn’t quite been able to get over the hump, and I think the Coastal is simply too talented for them to win the division this year. (Postseason Prediction: Music City Bowl vs. Auburn) 

5.  Duke (79)- Honestly, the biggest thing keeping the Blue Devils from making their first bowl in 16 years may be the schedule.  Last year, they screwed themselves over by scheduling a game against NC Central that didn’t count towards bowl eligibility because of their Division II statuts.  This year’s non-conference schedule includes the # 1 team in the country (Alabama), a top 5 Divison 1-AA team (Elon), and a road game against the tricky Midshipmen of Navy.  All three games could result in losses, which would make a 6-win season virtually impossible.  The Devils need to figure out that a schedule featuring 3 or 4 winnable non-conference games is the only way they’ll be able to get to a bowl game in the future.  This year’s squad will have to break-in a new quarterback, but they have experience most everywhere else.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)   

6.  Virginia (81)- Mike London should be able to use his local connections to bring this team back to prominence in the Coastal.  However, this year’s squad just isn’t talented enough to improve much on last year’s 3-9 mark.  New schemes, new quarterback, and a tough schedule will keep this team in the conference basement.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)