Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist

Yes, I know that now that picking the Big 10 as the fourth strongest conference is probably based on my anti-Big 10 bias, but I just can’t take a conference seriously that possesses an obscure uneven scheduling system that doesn’t result in a title game.  I know they go to 12 teams next year, but I haven’t heard anything about how or if the conference will be divided into divisions.  If the Big 10 continues to have a division-less league, then how about having a 2-game playoff featuring the league’s top 4 teams to end the season?  I know this is a longshot, but that would definitely bring some excitement to a league that produces very little of that kind of thing.  The Cornhuskers are certainly good addition to the Big 10 in terms of quality, but they don’t do much for the conference stylistically, as the Huskers play the same boring defensive-minded football that characterizes the rest of the league.  In regard to this particular season, the Big 10 will play out just as it always does.  A couple of good teams on top, a few decent ones in the middle, and a slew of bottom feeders in the conference basement.

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

1.  OHIO STATE (2)- There is a logical rule in place that prevents teams for getting credit for multiple wins over Division 1-AA opponents.  Now, why can’t there be another logical rule that prevents teams for getting credit for having more than seven home wins.  The Buckeyes will play a ridiculous 8 true home games this season, setting the stage for another disastrous performance in the BCS Title Game.  (Postseason Prediction: BCS Championship Game vs. Alabama; this game certainly a familiar look to it, as another SEC vs. OSU beatdown appears imminent.)

2.  Iowa (7)- The Hawkeyes have a lot of momentum going into this season due to their huge Orange Bowl win last January.  Stanzi is back healthy at quarterback, their running back and receiver corps remain intact, and their staunch defense return 8 starters.  The Hawkeyes also get to play Ohio State at home.  The main obstacle will be how Iowa handles the immense pressure they face coming into this season.  Expectations are as high as ever in Iowa City, and unlike, last year the Hawkeyes aren’t going to be sneaking up on anybody.  Iowa will have another tremendous season, but I feel like all the lucky breaks and close wins they were afforded last year won’t be in the cards this time around. (Postseason Prediction: Rose Bowl vs. Oregon State)

3.  Wisconsin (10)- John Clay is the best running back in the league, and he could have a 2,000 yard season if he gets enough touches.  15 other starters return for the Badgers, who could better their 10-3 mark from last year.  Other than back-to-back games against Ohio State and Iowa, Wisconsin should be favored in every other game they play this season, which is just as much of a compliment for the team as a criticism of their cupcake schedule.  (Postseason Prediction: Capital One Bowl vs. Florida)

4.  Penn State (22)- This will be a pseudo rebuilding year for JoePa and the Lions, as they will have to break-in a new quarterback and six new starting defenders.  Royster should be able to carry the load on offense, but this team has possibly the toughest three road games in the country having to play at Ohio State, at Iowa, and at Alabama.  If they win any of those games, I’ll be stunned.  (Postseason Prediction: Outback Bowl vs. South Carolina)

5.  Northwestern (39)- I haven’t labeled the Wildcats a surprise team, but I have them ranked a little higher than most publications based on their impressive performance in the Outback Bowl.  Even though, they lost they played a solid Auburn team into overtime.  They return 13 starters from that squad and don’t have to play Ohio State in conference. (Postseason Prediction: Insight Bowl vs. Texas Tech; this will be a great chance for the Wildcats to get their first bowl win since the 1940s)

6.  Michigan State (44)- Just like Northwester, the Spartans also return 13 starters and don’t have to play OSU.  I’m only giving the Wildcats a slight nod for fifth place because they get the Spartans at home and are coming off a slightly better season than MSU. (Postseason Prediction: Gator Bowl vs. LSU)

7.  Michigan (48)- It has always taken Rich Rodriguez a year or two to fully install his option attacks at a particular program.  That is why Michigan gave Rich Rod another year to prove himself, despite the numerous off the field problems he has been associated with.  I do think that this team has the talent to get to a bowl this year, but a brutal schedule will make it close  They will probably need to beat either UConn or Notre Dame in their first two games to have a legitimate shot at postseason play. I think these guys really need to pick either Forcier or Robinson as the starter and stick to him.  The QB controversy at the end of last year was a mess.  (Postseason Prediction: Texas Bowl vs. Kansas State)

8.  Purdue (58)- The Boilermakers came close to making a bowl last year, and they’ll be in about the same situation this year.  But thanks to 3 cupcake non-conference games I’m calling for Purdue to get to 6-6 and sneak into the inaugural Dallas Football Classic, though I’m not really sure why Dallas needed a second bowl game.  The success of this team may come down to the play of heralded transfer Robert Marve who failed to live up to his potential at Miami.  (Postseason Prediction: Dallas Football Classic vs. South Florida)

9.  Minnesota (78)- The loss of superstar receiver Eric Decker is the obvious concern for this squad, but they also only return 2 starters on defense.  They have three very winnable non-conference games, but they only get to play one of the two Big 10 bottom feeders, so they’ll have a tough time getting to the magic 6-win mark.   (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

10.  Indiana (86)- Last year, the Hoosiers made the mistake of playing a non-conference game against a living, breathing football team when they got pounded at Virginia.  Now, Indiana plays 4 cupcake games out of conference, meaning that this abysmal team will get to a bowl if they can beat Illinois and one other conference foe.  And you wonder why I think the Big 10 is a joke.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

11.  Illinois (89)- You may see a pattern between Kansas, Illinois, and South Florida. Last year, I picked all them to surprise because they were all experienced squads led by superstar quarterbacks.  Well all three picks turned out pretty badly, as only USF qualified for a bowl game.  Now, each of these teams are having to replace their few quality players, which for Illinois is quarterback Juice Williams and receiver Arrelious Benn.  Because of this, I don’t see the Illini getting more than the three wins they had last year (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)