Brad’s 2010 Big 12 Predictions
Posted by deaconcat08 on July 26, 2010
The Big 12 will have one last season to enjoy its 12-team super conference before Nebraska and Colorado secede to rival leagues. Now one really knows what will happen to the Big 12 then, but at least they avoided extinction this summer by holding onto Texas. As for the upcoming season, expect your usual Texas-Oklahoma battle in the South and a division title for Nebraska in the North. The difference is that if the Huskers can find a way to generate some sort of offense, the north champ actually has a legitimate chance of beating their southern counterpart in the title game. Overall, thie league may be a little down because of its lack of depth, but it still possesses two potential national title contenders in Oklahoma and Texas.
The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps. The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally. Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason. Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks. Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.
Big 12 North
1. Nebraska (9)- The Huskers are a dark horse national title contender this year, as the defense should be as dominant as ever. However, after watching the Nebraska offense struggle on so many occasions last year, I just can’t take them seriously enough to rank this squad any higher than 9th in the country. (Postseason Prediction: Cotton Bowl vs. Arkansas)
2. Missouri (37)- Blaine Gabbert and Derrick Washington are probably the most underrated QB/RB combo in the country, and with 13 other starters coming back from a solid 8-5 squad, don’t be surprised if the Tigers give the Huskers all they can handle in Lincoln on October 30th. (Postseason Prediction: Holiday Bowl vs. Oregon)
3. Kansas State (49)- Many experts are dismissing K-State as a one-hit wonder under Bill Snyder and calling for them to have a losing season in 2010. On the other hand, I feel like Carson Coffman will develop into a capable quarterback and Snyder will lead the Wildcats into a bowl game for the first time in several seasons. (Postseason Prediction: Texas Bowl vs. Michigan)
4. Colorado (60)- For whatever reason, the Dan Hawkins experiment has faltered in Boulder. He’s won just enough big games to hold onto his job this long, but I feel like his tenure will end after a losing 2010 season. The Buffaloes still find themselves facing an awkward QB controversy involving the coach’s son, and they also have to deal with a tough schedule featuring two very difficult non-conference games versus Cal and Georgia, as well as interdivisional matchup versus Oklahoma. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)
5. Iowa State (70)- Paul Rhoads’ Cyclones were one of the feel-good stories of the year after beating Nebraska en route to a bowl victory. Unfortunately, I don’t see the success spilling over into this season, as a young, inexperienced defense will be their downfall. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)
6. Kansas (75)- For some reason, many people are picking the Jayhawks to make a bowl in Turner Gill’s first season in Lawrence. Meanwhile, I think they only win two games and go winless in conference. First of all, a new coach comes in with new schemes, and if you recall, it took Gill a few seasons to successfully install his system in Buffalo and get that program moving in the right direction. And while I think the Gill hire was alright, keep in mind that he really only had one good season in Buffalo, as last season his Bulls majorly disappointed. Also, the Jayhawks lost their last 7 games of 2009 under the helm superstar quarterback Todd Reesing. Now that he’s gone people why are people expecting them to be better? I just don’t see much success in Lawrence this season, as I feel like this team has a long way to go after firing Mangini. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)
Big 12 South
1. OKLAHOMA (4)- First of all, let me just go on the record and say that there is no way the Oklahoma Sooners will be playing for the national title like Phil Steele is predicting. His reasoning is absurd when he mentions that this team has the same number of returning starters as OU’s 2001 national championship squad (11). That’s like saying that because a certain team had the same number of offseason ACL injuries as they did when they last won the title, so they should win it again this year. Eleven starters isn’t that many, and while I am predicting the Sooners to knock off Texas, mostly because I think Landry Jones is more talented and experienced than Garrett Gilbert, I definitely believe that the Sooners will drop a game or two somewhere down the road. (Postseason Prediction: Fiesta Bowl vs. TCU; Big 12 Power vs. Non-BCS Power # 1)
2. Texas (6)- The Longhorns lose all but 4 offensive starters, but like most national powerhouses, they will reload without too much difficulty. The real adjustment will come at quarterback, as Gilbert will try to prove himself as a capable replacement for Colt McCoy. It seems like it takes Mack Brown a couple of seasons to break his quarterbacks in (see Vincy Young and Colt McCoy), so I believe that Gilbert will struggle at times throughout the season. However, the Big 12 is a little down this year and the Horns’ should only drop 1 or 2 games all season. (Postseason Prediction: Sugar Bowl vs. Boise State; ; Big 12 Power vs. Non-BCS Power # 2)
3. Texas A & M (40)- The Aggies showed signs of promise at times last season, as they played great in games versus Texas and Texas Tech. On the hand, they looked horrible in their bowl game versus Georgia and an earlier blowout loss to Oklahoma. If Sherman can get his troops to consistently play to their ability level, then the Aggies have an outside chance at contending for the division crown. Star quarterback Jerrod Johnson will anchor a potent offense, and even though, the defense struggled at times last year, the Aggies will be returning 10 starters on that side of the ball. (Postseason Prediction: Alamo Bowl vs. Washington)
4. Texas Tech (45)- Much like Southern Cal, I really have no idea what this team is going to do this season based on their somewhat unusual circumstances. The Red Raiders have 13 returning starters including their starting quarterback, running back, and three of their receivers. The problem is that Tuberville will be bringing drastically difference scheme to a divided team, campus and fanbase, who largely believe that Mike Leach should still be the coach. I think a lack of unity and cohesion will cost this team some games, but they simply have too much talent not to at least make a bowl game this season. (Postseason Prediction: Insight Bowl vs. Northwestern)
5. Baylor (54)- It’s now or never for Art Briels and the Bears. They have over half of the starters returning on both offense and defense, including superstar QB Robert Griffin. Also, the Big 12 South is unusually weak, and the Bears have three winnable conference games and an interdivisional schedule that doesn’t feature Nebraska or Missouri. All the signs point to a 6-6 season and a bowl berth, and I think that’s exactly what you’ll see in Waco. (Postseason Prediction: Pinstripe Bowl vs. Rutgers; Baylor finally makes a bowl game!)
6. Oklahoma State (64)- Ole Miss and Oklahoma State will drop more than any two in the country, as both of their rosters were gutted following very successful seasons in 2009. The Cowboys only have five total returning starters, none of which were star players last year. Gundy has recruited decently well while at OSU, so there is some talent here. However, there is simply not enough experience to win more than a few games this season. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)