Week 1 College Football Picks
Posted by deaconcat08 on August 31, 2010
Brad’s world famous weekly college football picks are back! I finished with an impressive 78-62 mark last year, and I hope to replicate that kind of success this season. These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered based on my personal confidence in each.
Pick # 1: Iowa State (-3.0) vs. Northern Illinois- Here’s my first lock of the week in 2010! This is one of those first week spreads that seem to be based way too much on last year’s results. Northern Illinois was solid last year, but the Huskies will struggle early this season as they try to break-in a new QB.
Pick # 2: Fresno State (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati- The Bulldogs almost beat a top 5 Cincy team last year on the road. Now, they get a depleted Bearcat team at home. These are the kind of games that Pat Hill lives for. There is no way Fresno is losing this one.
Pick # 3: Clemson (-23.0) vs. North Texas- General Rule: It’s a good bet to take BCS conference contenders favored by less than 30 against creampuff opponents at home. This line is especially enticing because of Clemson’s propensity to blowout inferior opponents in Death Valley. I would personally like the Tigers to cover a 22-point spread at home against several ACC opponents.
Pick # 4: Oregon State (+13.0) vs. TCU- I love the Horned Frogs this year, but the Beavers are my surprise pick to win the Pac-10, as they return 15 starters (including both Rodgers brothers) from a team that came within a possession of the Pac-10 crown last season. TCU should win this one but not by more than a TD.
Pick # 5: Kentucky (-3.0) vs. Louisville- Kentucky has dominated Louisville in recent years and while the Cardinals will improve under Charlie Strong, I don’t see them challenging the Cats in his opener.
Pick # 6: Army (-9.5) vs. Eastern Michigan- I’m sure many of you looked at this line and couldn’t believe that Army is favored by 8.5 against another Division 1-A team on the road. But believe it or not, the Black Knights will cover this spread easily. The Knights will be a little better than they were last year, and the Eagles are by far the worst team in FBS this season.
Pick # 7: Navy (-6.5) vs. Maryland- This is an intriguing intrastate battle that should be fairly one-sided. After last year’s 2-10 season, the morale is low in College Park, and the Terps will continue to struggle this season, as inexperience at quarterback and in the secondary will greatly hinder their success. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen actually have the talent and more importantly the schedule to run the table this season.
Pick # 8: Georgia (-28.0) vs. UL-Lafayette- See analysis for Clemson/North Texas game above. This one worries me a bit more though because of Georgia’s inexperience at QB.
Pick # 9: UConn (+3.0) vs. Michigan- This line is based solely on tradition, pure and simple. There is still a certain aura and mystique surrounding Michigan and the Big House, despite their recent mediocrity. When push comes to shove, this is a game between a bottom-dwelling Big 10 team and a Big East title contender. The Huskies will win here.
Pick # 10: Washington (+3.0) vs. Brigham Young- I’m actually not crazy about this spread, but since I’m picking Washington to be one of the top surprise teams this season and BYU to be a major disappointment team, then I better put my money where my mouth here and go with the Huskies. Washington has a wealth of experience (18 returning starters), a superstar quarterback (Jake Locker), and a dynamic, young coach (Steve Sarkisian). Meanwhile, the Cougars are in the midst of a rare rebuilding season.