Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the fourth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  However, you will see that I am currently predicting there not to be enough bowl eligible teams to fill all 70 bowl slots.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 45 teams on the list with 18 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 27 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 66  bowl eligible teams for 2012 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 70 bowl slots to be filled.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (18):

Washington- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah, at Colorado, at Washington State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99%

Arizona- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado, at Utah, vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99%

Brigham Young- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Idaho, at San Jose State, at New Mexico State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98%

West Virginia- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at OK St, vs. Oklahoma, at Iowa State, vs. Kansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 97%

Air Force- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at San Diego State, vs. Hawaii, at Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 96%

NC State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wake Forest, at Clemson, vs. Boston College; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 95% (The Demon Deacons and the Wolfpack will meet in a bowl play-in game next Saturday in Raleigh.)

Miami (FL)- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia, vs. USF, at Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 94% (Oddly enough, the Hurricanes are my favorite to win the ACC Coastal but have not yet become bowl eligible.  That says a lot about the current state of that division.)

Cincinnati- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Temple, vs. Rutgers, vs. USF, at UConn; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 93% (Needs to get to 7 victories because of multiple wins over FCS opponents.)

UL-Lafayette- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Florida, vs. WKU, vs. USA, at FAU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 92%

Michigan State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northwestern, at Minnesota; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 87%

Arizona State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at USC, vs. Washington State, at Arizona; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 79%

Tennessee- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Missouri, at Vanderbilt, vs. Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 69%

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. FSU, at BC, vs. UVA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65%

Iowa State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Texas, at Kansas, vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64%

Oklahoma State- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. West Virginia, vs. Texas Tech, at Oklahoma, at Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63% (All the Cowboys need is one more victory to attain bowl eligibility.  However, none of their final four contests are gimmes.)

Vanderbilt- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee, at Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59%

Ole Miss- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Vandy, at LSU, vs. Miss. St.; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56%

Minnesota- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, at Nebraska, vs. Michigan State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55%

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (27):

SMU- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Miss, at Rice, vs. Tulsa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%

Houston- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulsa, at Marshall, vs. Tulane; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48%

Marshall- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at UAB, vs. Houston, at East Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%

Rice- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. SMU, at UTEP; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46%

Wake Forest- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at NC State, at Notre Dame, vs. Vandy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (The Demon Deacons and the Wolfpack will meet in a bowl play-in game next Saturday in Raleigh.)

Pittsburgh- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at UConn, vs. Rutgers, at USF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44%

Western Michigan- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Buffalo, vs. Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43%

Missouri- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Tennessee, vs. Syracuse, at Texas A & M; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39%

Miami (OH)- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kent State, at Central Michigan vs. Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38%

Syracuse- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Louisville, at Missouri, at Temple; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37%

Central Michigan- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at EMU, vs. Miami-OH, at UMass ; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35%

Baylor- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma, vs. Kansas State, vs. Texas Tech, vs. Oklahoma State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34%

Indiana- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, at Penn State, at Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33%

Georgia Tech- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at UNC, vs. Duke, at Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32%

Purdue- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa, at Illinois, vs. Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30%

Utah- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Washington, vs. Arizona, at Colorado; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29%

New Mexico- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wyoming, vs. Nevada, at Colorado State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 28% (The Lobos play 13 games so they must get 7 wins unless special exemption is granted.)

Iowa- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Purdue, at Michigan, vs. Nebraska; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 27%

Texas State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. LA Tech, at Navy, at UTSA, vs. New Mexico State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 24%

Troy- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Navy, vs. Arkansas State, at MTSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 19%

Temple- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Cincinnati, at Army, vs. Syracuse; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 17% (The Owls only play 11 games,  so they must go 6-5.)

North Texas- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. USA, at UL-Monroe, at WKU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7%

Arkansas- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at South Carolina, at Miss. St, vs. LSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%

South Florida- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-FL, at Cincinnati, vs. Pitt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5%

Maryland- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Clemson, vs. Florida State, at North Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4% (There’s no way this team wins two of these last three without a quarterback.)

Connecticut- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Pitt, at Louisville, vs. Cincinnati; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3%

Virginia - Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs.Miami-FL, vs. UNC, at Virginia Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%

Already Bowl Eligible (48): Clemson, Florida State, Duke, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Louisville, Rutgers, Nebraska, Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin, UCF, East Carolina, Tulsa, Notre Dame, Navy, Kent State, Ohio, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Ball State, Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Nevada, Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State, UCLA, Southern California, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Texas A & M, LSU, Mississippi State, Arkansas State, UL-Monroe, MTSU, Western Kentucky, Utah State, LA Tech, San Jose State

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (31): North Carolina*, Boston College, Kansas, Ohio State*, Penn State*, Illinois, UAB, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulane, UTEP, Army, Buffalo, UMass, Akron, Eastern Michigan, UNLV, Colorado State, Wyoming, Hawaii, California, Washington State, Colorado, Kentucky, Auburn, South Alabama, FAU, FIU, Idaho, New Mexico State, UTSA

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 48

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 18

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 31

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 27