These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident. 

Arizona (Pick) vs. UCLA- Don’t know why this is a pick’em.  Zona is the better team and easily swept their regular season meetings.

NC State (+7.5) vs. Clemson- The Wolfpack are playing well right now, and Clemson isn’t known for its postseason success.

Kent State (-4.5) vs. Ohio- The Flashes should coast through this tourney until they meet Akron in Saturday’s final.

Prairie View A & M (+2.0) vs. Texas Southern- This tourney has broken wide open with Grambling’s huge upset of Jackson State on Wednesday.  Don’t know why PVU is the dog here.  They are the higher seed and swept the regular season meetings between the two.

Yesterday’s Record: 1-0, Overall Season Record: 33-22

One small college pick for you today:

Stephen F. Austin (-3.0) vs. UT-Arlington- SFA and Sam Houston should both roll through this tourney until they meet on Saturday afternoon in the title game.  The Lumberjacks (SFA) beat the Mavs (UTA)  by 7 in their only meeting this season. 

Overall Season Record: 32-22

This is the time of year where we begin to talk about mid-majors.  First, we focus on their exciting conference tourneys where only the winner gets to put on dancing shoes.  Then, we get inspired by mid-major Cinderella stories as they emerge in the Big Dance.  However, it always seemed to me that college basketball analysts throw out the term “mid-major” without saying exactly what it is.  Obviously, it refers to smaller conference teams, but what exactly does that entail?  Below, I will discuss several different perspectives, including my own, on this issue.  I have also included the benefits and drawbacks of each viewpoint.  There may never be a consensus opinion on what exactly a mid-major is, but I’ve always felt this issue needs to be analyzed in greater detail, and here is my attempt to do so.

Viewpoint # 1: The Big 6- This is probably the most popular viewpoint, but in my opinion, it is also the most flawed.

• Definition: A “mid-major” is any team outside of the Big 6 power conferences.
• Benefits to the theory: Very simple and easy to figure out.
• Drawbacks to the theory:  My criticisms of this overly simplistic mid-major classification system are numerous.  First of all, under this theory, the 2007 Memphis team, 1998 Utah squad, and 1990 UNLV team would all be considered mid-majors.  That means that we’ve had two mid-major runners-up in the past 2 decades and one mid-major national champion.  However, none of these runs were the least bit surprising or even intriguing.  Those teams were stacked with future NBA superstars, which is definitely not a typical characteristic of mid-major programs.  By applying this theory, we also make the George Mason Final Four run of 2006 somewhat insignificant since mid-major Memphis made it even farther than them in the tourney two years later.  And yes, all those trivia answers that said George Mason was the first mid-major to make the Final Four since Indiana State are entirely inaccurate. Finally, if we are to only draw one line separating the high-majors and the mid-majors, then any third grader can notice that something is missing.  In any type of hierarchy there can’t just be a high-level and a mid-level.  There also has to be a low-level.  Thus, this theory also fails to define what a low-major is.  In general, that is a huge problem I have with college basketball analysts.  They throw out the term “mid-major” when referring to any small conference team, as to imply that there is no such thing as a low-major.

Viewpoint # 2: The FBS/FCS divide

• Definition: Any team outside the 11 Division 1-A football conferences is a mid-major. 
• Benefits to the theory: Also, very simple and easy to figure out.  It is superior to viewpoint # 1 because it removes the mid-major classifications from the Memphis, UNLV, and Utah powerhouses I mentioned earlier (though technically UNLV played in the Big West when they won their national championship).
• Drawbacks to the theory: The classifications of the MAC and Sun Belt as high-majors!  It only makes sense for those two Division 1-A football conferences to be lumped in with the mid and low majors.  Also, this viewpoint once again fails to differentiate between mid-majors and low-majors.

Viewpoint # 3: The Red-Line (from Mid-Majority.com)

• Definition: Any team in a conference that is below the red line drawn on Mid-Majority.com (the premier small conference basketball site on the web) is a mid-major.  The red line is the dividing line between conferences whose members have an average annual athletic budget of $20 million or more and those conferences who don’t.  Thus, there are 8 conferences that are considered high-majors, the big 6 conferences, the Mountain West, and C-USA.
• Benefits to the theory: Also, very simple and easy to figure out.  It seems to really follow the modern perception of which teams are mid-majors and which aren’t.  Kyle Whelliston, the author of the blog even admits that this is exactly what he is going for, as he says that the mid-major classification is one that changes over time.  Also, the aforementioned “misstated mid-majors” (Memphis, Utah, and UNLV) would be high-majors based on their current conference affiliation.
• Drawbacks to the theory: I think it is kind of cynical to use money (or lack thereof) as the only factor in making the mid-major determination.  Also, Whelliston is taking into account each school’s total athletic budget for this analysis, not just what the amount they spent on men’s basketball.  Obviously, such numbers will be greatly affected by a university’s football team, or lack thereof.  Furthermore, this viewpoint once again fails to differentiate between mid-majors and low-majors.  In addition, this year the Atlantic 10 is definitely superior to both the C-USA and MWC, but it possesses a lower classification according to this theory. 

Viewpoint # 4: Numbers Games-

• Definition: Mid-major conferences can be determined quantitatively in many different ways.  Example # 1: If your conference has averages less than 2 tourney bids per year, then it is a mid-major.   Example # 2: If your conference averages less than 1 tourney win per year, then it is also a mid-major.
• Benefits to theory: This theory can be modified to include a low-major classification by simply adding another dimension (ex: teams that receive less than 1.5 bids per year are mid-majors).  Also, this theory’s results change over time, so the Numbers Game theory can evolve to fit the current landscape of college basketball.
• Drawbacks of theory: The major drawback is its complexity.  No one wants to sit down with a calculator and determine what a mid-major is.  We want our mid-majors to be evident and obvious. 

Viewpoint # 5: The Rule of Thirds (My personal view)

• Definition: There are 31 conferences in Division 1, and there are 3 categories we much create.  Therefore, it makes perfect sense to me to divide the conferences in thirds.  The top 10 RPI conferences are the high-majors, the next 10 are the mid-majors, and the final 11 are the low-majors.
• Benefits to theory: They are quite numerous in my opinion.  First, it is not nearly as complex as the numerical calculations I mentioned previously.  Secondly, the parameters are very exact leaving no room for ambiguity.  Third, the theory allows for the classifications to adapt to the changes in college hoops.  Fourth, it accurately differentiates between the George Mason run of 3 years ago and the UNLV, Memphis, and Utah runs I spoke about earlier.   The Colonial was not a top 10 conference in 2006, but C-USA was in 2008, the WAC was in 1998, and the Big West was in 1990.  Fifth, this system clearly differentiates between mid-majors and low-majors.   
• Drawbacks of theory: One drawback is that it requires a little bit of research to go out and find the conference RPI rankings.  But let me help you out: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html.  The other drawback is that there are multiple RPI formulas in existence (ex: Ken Pomeroy, CBS, Real-time RPI, etc.) so it is possible that one site could have a different classification than another.

Viewpoint # 6: Theory of Mid-Major Relativity- Here is the sentimentalist viewpoint on this issue. 

• Definition: Quite simply, a “mid-major” is any underdog that we fall in love with in March.  There are no exact specifications or parameters.  We just know it when we see it. 
• Benefits to theory: It sure makes it easy for everyone to pick out who is a mid-major and who is not.
• Drawbacks of theory: This theory obviously leaves the door wide open for disagreement and ambiguity.

The bottom line is that no matter how you personally define a mid-major make sure you do it in a way that allows you to be inspired by their success.  Because that’s what March is all about.  It’s about the miracles.  It’s about the upsets.   And it’s about the mid-majors… whatever those are.

The teams below are displayed below on an S-curve, so they are ranked from left to right within each seeding line.  The italicized teams are ones predicted to win their conference tourney and gain an automatic bid to the dance.  The bolded teams have already won an auto bid to either the NCAA or NIT tournament.  For the conferences who currently have NCAA tourney teams, it is assumed that one of those teams will win their conference tourney.  If not, then a stolen bid will result, and the number of at-large bids would drop.

You will notice that some of the # 13 seeded conference champions are listed both in the big dance field and the NIT field.  Their NIT inclusion simply shows what NIT seed that team would have if they were to lose in their conference tourney.  Obviously, if they were to win their respective conference tourneys, then they would be deleted from the NIT field, and little dance at-large spots would open up.  However, with the NIT, keep in mind that typically between 5-8 spots will be taken by small conference regular season champs who lose their conference tourneys and thereby get NIT auto bids (ex: Lipscomb).

NCAA Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue

2-seeds: Duke, West Virginia, Villanova, Kansas State,

3-seeds: New Mexico, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin

4-seeds: Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Temple

5-seeds: Brigham Young, Butler, Xavier, Maryland

6-seeds:  Baylor, Georgetown, Richmond, Gonzaga

7-seeds:  Texas A & M, Louisville, Missouri, California

8-seeds: Texas, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, UTEP 

9-seeds: Marquette, UNLV, Virginia Tech, Florida State

10-seeds: Wake Forest, Clemson, Saint Mary’s, Georgia Tech

11-seeds: Notre Dame, Old Dominion, Siena, Cornell

12-seeds: Utah State, Florida, Illinois, San Diego State 

13-seeds: Memphis, Ole Miss, Kent State, Murray State

14-seeds: Oakland, Wofford, Weber State, Sam Houston State

15-seeds: UC Santa Barbara, Morgan State, Troy, East Tennessee State

16-seeds: Quinnipiac, Vermont, Lehigh, Winthrop, Jackson State

NIT Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Seton Hall, Arizona State, South Florida, Washington

2-seeds: UAB, Mississippi State, Minnesota, Rhode Island

3-seeds: Connecticut, Dayton, Marshall, Saint Louis

4-seeds: Cincinnati, Charlotte, Tulsa, Wichita State

5-seeds: Northwestern, William & Mary, VCU, Northeastern

6-seeds: Miami-FL, St. John’s, Kent State, Oakland

7-seeds: North Carolina, New Mexico State, Texas Tech, Nevada

8-seeds: NC State, Coastal Carolina, Stony Brook, Lipscomb

First 4 out of NIT: Louisiana Tech, Alabama, Illinois, Arizona

These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.  Please scroll down to see that I easily hit all five of the games I picked for Saturday.  Today, I”m all about the 1 seed vs. 2 seed conference championship matchups that have a 4-point spread. 

Gonzaga (-4.0) vs. Saint Mary’s- The Bulldogs have absolutely owned the Gaels in the past few years and cruised to victories in both of their meetings this season.  I don’t expect a lot out of the Zags in the Big Dance, but they should win another WCC title tonight in Vegas by a comfortable margin.

Appalachian State (+4.5) vs. Wofford- I watched both of these teams play in person last night, and by using the ultimately subjective eyeball test, App. State looked much better.  I was actually shocked by how good the Mountaineers looked in their blowout victory over Charleston.  If they play that well tonight, they will cruise to victory here and be a very dangerous 14-seed in next week’s Big Dance (especially against an undersized 3-seed).

Saturday’s Record: 5-0 (5 spot!), Overall Season Record: 32-20

 These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.  Going with the narrowly-favored home teams today.

Baylor (-3.5) vs. Texas- Baylor is playing much better than the Longhorns right now, and already beat Texas in Austin earlier this season.

Colorado State (-2.5) vs. Utah-  My general rule is being applied across the board today.  If you have two teams that are evenly-matched and the line is within 3 points either way, then bet the home team.  That applies here, and to make things even better the Rams waxed the Utes by 15 on the road last month. 

St. Joe’s (-1.5) vs. La Salle- Same reasoning as above.

Oregon (-2.5) vs. Washington State- Same reasoning as above and Oregon already won at Wazzou.

Charleston (-5.0) vs. UT-Chattanooga- Neutral site game here, but Charleston beat Chattanooga by double-digits in both of their regular season meetings.

Yesterday’s Record: 1-0, Overall Season Record: 27-20

Note: This post was first made on the morning of March 6th, but had to be re-posted two days later because of a server change.

The teams below are displayed below on an S-curve, so they are ranked from left to right within each seeding line.  The italicized teams are ones predicted to win their conference tourney and gain an automatic bid to the dance.  The bolded teams have already won an auto bid to either the NCAA or NIT tournament (ex: Lipscomb).  For the conferences who currently have NCAA tourney teams, it is assumed that one of those teams will win their conference tourney.  If not, then a stolen bid would result, and the number of at-large bids would drop.

You will notice that some of the # 13 seeded conference champions are listed both in the big dance field and the NIT field.  Their NIT inclusion simply shows what NIT seed that team would have if they were to lose in their conference tourney.  Obviously, if they were to win their respective conference tourneys, then they would be deleted from the NIT field, and little dance at-large spots would open up.  However, with the NIT, keep in mind that typically between 5-8 spots will be taken by small conference regular season champs who lose their conference tourneys and thereby get NIT auto bids (ex: Lipscomb).

NCAA Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Purdue

2-seeds: Duke, Villanova, Kansas State, West Virginia 

3-seeds: Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Ohio State, Michigan State

4-seeds: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Temple

5-seeds: Gonzaga, Brigham Young, Xavier, Butler

6-seeds: Maryland, Baylor, Texas, Georgetown

7-seeds: Richmond, Texas A & M, Missouri, California

8-seeds: Marquette, Louisville, UTEP, UNLV

9-seeds: Oklahoma State, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

10-seeds: Virginia Tech, Northern Iowa, Wake Forest, Saint Mary’s

11-seeds: Florida, Cornell, Illinois, Siena 

12-seeds:  Notre Dame, Old Dominion, Utah State, UAB 

13-seeds: Rhode Island, San Diego State, Kent State, Murray State

14-seeds: Oakland, Sam Houston State, Wofford, Weber State

15-seeds: UC Santa Barbara, Morgan State, Troy, Coastal Carolina

16-seeds: Stony Brook, Jacksonville, Quinnipiac, Lehigh, Jackson State

NIT Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Memphis, Ole Miss, Connecticut, Mississippi State

2-seeds: Seton Hall, Minnesota, South Florida, Washington 

3-seeds: Cincinnati, Arizona State, Dayton, Charlotte

4-seeds: Wichita State, Tulsa, Marshall, Saint Louis

5-seeds: William & Mary, VCU, Northeastern, Northwestern

6-seeds: North Carolina, New Mexico State, Miami-FL, Texas Tech

7-seeds: St. John’s, Kent State, Murray State, Oakland

8-seeds: Louisiana Tech, Nevada, Illinois State, Lipscomb

Ranking of Other Postseason Contenders: Rutgers, South Carolina, Boston College, Nevada, Arizona, Portland, Washington State, Alabama

Only got one today.

Richmond (-3.5) vs. Dayton- The Flyers need it more, but they’re not playing well enough right now to win at Richmond.  The Spiders win comfortably here to maintain their 7 seed.

Yesterday’s Record: 0-2, Overall Season Record: 26-20

These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.  Going with the SEC home teams today.

South Carolina (-3.0) vs. Alabama- Sorry for the delay in posting this game, as for some reason there was a delay in having this line listed on the World Sports Exchange.  I know the Gamecocks have lost 5 straight, but 3 of those were road losses and the other two were against NCAA tourney teams in Missisippi State and Tennessee.  Here, South Carolina is at home playing a team that has lost its last 6 SEC road games.  This game will likely be close, but the Gamecoks should pull it out in the second half.  The 3 point spread worries me a little bit, but at home I think USC have a very good chance of covering.

Georgia (+8.0) vs. Kentucky- Because I’m on a hot streak right now, I’m going to take a stab at this one and go with my gut.  The Cats have the talent to blow the Dawgs right out of the gym, but all the facts and figures point to this being a very close game.  First of all, UK only beat UGA by 8 in Lexington.  Also,  Georgia has quietly won 4 straight at home, including victories over Vandy and Florida.  Meanwhile, Kentucky has not really overwhelmed anybody on the road in the SEC, winning only two games by double-digits.  I think the Cats will either win this game in the final minute or they’ll absolutely murder the Dawgs, and in my opinion, the former is more likely than the latter.

Yesterday’s Record: 2-0, Overall Season Record: 26-18

The teams below are displayed below on an S-curve, so they are ranked from left to right within each seeding line.  The italicized teams are ones predicted to win their conference tourney and gain an automatic bid to the dance.  For the conferences who currently have NCAA tourney teams, it is assumed that one of those teams will win their conference tourney.  If not, then a stolen bid would result, and the number of at-large bids would drop.

You will notice that some of the # 13 seeded conference champions are listed both in the big dance field and the NIT field.  Their NIT inclusion simply shows what NIT seed that team would have if they were to lose in their conference tourney.  Obviously, if they were to win their respective conference tourneys, then they would be deleted from the NIT field, and little dance at-large spots would open up.  However, with the NIT, keep in mind that typically between 5-8 spots will be taken by small conference regular season champs who lose their conference tourneys and thereby get NIT auto bids.

NCAA Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke

2-seeds: Kansas State, Purdue, Villanova, West Virginia 

3-seeds: Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Ohio State, Michigan State

4-seeds: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Temple

5-seeds: Gonzaga, Butler, Brigham Young, Xavier

6-seeds: Georgetown, Baylor, Texas A & M, Texas

7-seeds: Maryland, Richmond, Missouri, Oklahoma State

8-seeds: California, UTEP, UNLV, Louisville

9-seeds: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech 

10-seeds: Wake Forest, Northern Iowa, UAB, Marquette

11-seeds: Illinois, Florida, Saint Mary’s, Cornell

12-seeds: Siena, Utah State, Old Dominion, Rhode Island

13-seeds: Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Kent State, Murray State

14-seeds: Oakland, Sam Houston State, Wofford, Weber State

15-seeds: UC Santa Barbara, Morgan State, Troy, Coastal Carolina

16-seeds: Stony Brook, Quinnipiac, Lehigh, Lipscomb, Jackson State

NIT Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Dayton, San Diego State, Ole Miss, Connecticut

2-seeds: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Memphis, Seton Hall

3-seeds: Charlotte, South Florida, Washington, Arizona State

4-seeds: Saint Louis, Marshall, Wichita State, Tulsa

5-seeds: New Mexico State, William & Mary, VCU, Northeastern

6-seeds: Northwestern, St. John’s, Texas Tech, Miami-FL

7-seeds: North Carolina, Virginia, NC State, Louisiana Tech 

8-seeds: Kent State, Murray State, Oakland, Illinois State

Ranking of Other Postseason Contenders: Rutgers, South Carolina, Boston College, Nevada, Arizona, Portland, Washington State, Alabama

These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.

Villanova (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati- The Wildcats are coming off a blowout loss in the Carrier Dome and wil be looking for blood in Cincy.  Meanwhile, the Bearcats are struggling down the stretch and don’t play particularly well at home.

North Carolina (-4.0) vs. Miami-FL- As much as I’ve bashed the Heels this year, I had a feeling they would eventually regain their early season form.  Unfortunately, that rebirth came against my Demon Deacons.  Now, they go back home to play a Miami team that not only hasn’t won a conference road game this year, but has actually yet to been competitive in one.

 Yesterday’s Record: 1-0, Overall Season Record: 24-18

 Jackson State (-1.5) vs. Arkansas Pine-Bluff- This line is so likable it’s scary.  The Tigers are 14-1 in the SWAC, have won 13 in a row, are playing at home, and already beat the Golden Lions by 5 points on the road earlier this season.  I don’t pick SWAC games very often, but I will be shocked if the Tigers don’t win this game on Senior Night.

Overall Season Record: 23-18

It’s that time of the year!  The beginning of the advent season kicks off Tuesday with Big South and Ohio Valley conference tourney action.  Here are my picks for each conference along with a potential  dark horse (a team not seeded 1 or 2 to watch out for).  Of course, if I am picking a team not seeded 1 or 2 to win their conference tourney, that squad will also be the dark horse to watch out for.  The conferences are listed in chronological order of their tournament finals.

Big South: Coastal Carolina (Dark Horse: Winthrop)- The Chanticleers are definitely the class of the league, but their lack of postseason experience worries me here.  Winthrop has won too many Big South championships to ignore.

Atlantic Sun: Belmont (Dark Horse: Belmont)- Lipscomb needs to thank its lucky stars that they somehow won the conference tiebreaker and thus get the NIT auto bid if they lose in this tourney.  They are, in my opinion, the worst of the 4 teams tied at the top of the A-Sun.  I like Belmont here because of their past tourney experience and success in March.

Ohio Valley: Murray State (Dark Horse: Eastern Kentucky)- I think this conference tourney will come down to Murray and Morehead in what should be an absolutely awesome final.

Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (Dark Horse: Evansville)- The Panthers are vastly overrated in my opinion, but they should still win the title in this increasingly weak conference.  I am pretty much joking with the Evansville dark horse pick, but something should be said for a team that beats the top two teams (Northern Iowa, Wichita) to get their only conference wins for the season. 

Colonial: Old Dominion (Dark Horse: VCU)- See comment above about Northern Iowa.  The exact same thing can be said about ODU.  If the Monarchs don’t win, then watch out for VCU, who is playing this tourney at home and has won it the past 2 years. 

Metro Atlantic: Siena (Dark Horse: Niagara)- Don’t think anyone can beat the Gaels in this tourney, but Niagara is the one and only team to do it during the regular season.

Southern: Charleston (Dark Horse: Davidson)- Even though Wofford knocked off the Cougars last week, I have a feeling that Bobby Cremins will find a way to get this team to the dance.  Also, watch out for Davidson, who has recovered well after a disasterous start to the season.  Their win over Elon on Saturday was nothing short of miraculous (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOTDai9K4ck)

West Coast: Gonzaga (Dark Horse: San Francisco)- The Zags have won this conference tourney every year for what seems like a century now, so it’s tough to bet against them here.  Surprisingly, San Francisco is the team that has given the Zags the most trouble this year in conference, as they knocked them off at home and gave them a major scare on the road.

Sun Belt: North Texas (Dark Horse: Western Kentucky)- Troy, much like Lipscomb in the A-Sun, is quite lucky to win the tiebreaker for the # 1 seed and NIT auto bid.  I’m picking the Mean Green here just because they’re playing the best of the top 3 teams who tied for the regular season championship.  Also, don’t count out the Hilltoppers who still have many of the same guys who pulled off the NCAA tourney upsets the past couple of years.

Summit: IUPUI (Dark Horse: Oral Roberts)- Oakland is the best team in the conference, but IUPUI may have their number.  The two teams split their regular season matchups but Oakland had to win a squeaker at home, whereas the Jaguars pummeled the Golden Grizzlies in their second meeting.  ORU, much like Western Kentucky and Davidson, is in the midst of a down year but that has the tournament pedigree to make some noise in March.

Horizon: Butler (Dark Horse: Cleveland State)- The Bulldogs are the only team in the country who is unbeaten in conference play, so they should win this tournament easily.  Nevertheless, after Cleveland State’s run last March, I’m not going to count them out, even after a disappointing regular season.

Northeast: Quinnipiac (Dark Horse: Bryant)- This tourney should come down to Robert Morris and Quinnipiac, and I give the Bobcats the edge based on their 8-point road victory over RMU in their only regular season meeting.  Quinnipiac also gets to play the final on their home court, which will be a huge advantage. No clue on the dark horse here so I decided to go with the 1-29 team.

Big Sky: Weber State (Dark Horse: Portland State)- The Wildcats are the class of the league, but the Vikings have won this tourney the past two years and beat Weber yesterday afternoon. 

Patriot: Lehigh (Dark Horse: Lafayette)- Seems like the home court advantage given to the highest seed in this tourney always seems to have a huge impact.  The Mountain Hawks also have to like the fact that the league’s second place team, Bucknell, has a losing overall record.

Conference USA: UTEP (Dark Horse: Tulsa)- There aren’t many teams in the country that are hotter than the Miners right now, but Tulsa should be able to make a run here given the fact they are hosting the tourney.

America East: Vermont (Dark Horse: Maine)- Stony Brook will be hosting the final if they get that far, but they will be a big dance virgin in uncharted territory.  I give the advantage to the experienced Catamounts here, who almost won at Stony Brook last week.  Meanwhile, after a hot start, Maine has struggled in the last month or so, but there would be no greater sentimental storyline than if the Black Bears qualified for their first dance. 

MEAC: Morgan State (Dark Horse: South Carolina State)- The Bears should runaway with this tourney just like they did last year in Winston-Salem.  SC State is the one MEAC team that has beaten them though.

Southland: Sam Houston State (Dark Horse: Texas-San Antonio)- Don’t think anyone can beat the Bearkats (yes that is how it is spelled) in this tourney, but the Roadrunners are the one and only team to do it during the regular season.

MAC: Kent State (Dark Horse: Buffalo)-  This tourney should come down to the Kent and Akron and this week’s regular season finale between the two should give us an idea of what to expect.  I think Kent State is the best team in the MAC (they beat Akron by 17 the first time they played), but someone please tell me how the heck they have a top 50 RPI (higher than UTEP, Virginia Tech, and Marquette).  Their one and only good non-conference win came against UAB at home.  Meanwhile, Buffalo is having one of its best basketball years ever and would be a great story if they could win the tourney and make it to their first dance.

Big 12: Kansas (Dark Horse: Baylor)- The Jayhawks haven’t lost a home or neutral site game this year, so I still really like their chances of winning the Big 12 and NCAA titles despite their setback in Stillwater this weekend.  Kansas State seems to be the Jayhawks main challenger here, but Baylor is playing really well right now and almost beat both Kansas teams earlier this season.

Pacific 10: California (Dark Horse: Washington)- A few weeks ago this was setting up to be a wild, out-of-control conference tourney.  However, Cal has emerged as the clear Pac-10 frontrunner with their blowout victory over ASU on Saturday.  No team in the country has underachieved as much as the Huskies this season (besides UNC of course), so maybe Washington will be one of those teams who waits until March to start playing up to their potential.

Mountain West: New Mexico (Dark Horse: UNLV)- The Lobos are playing some incredible basketball this season, both at home and on the road.  If they win out, then they may be able to claim a 2 seed in the dance.  On other hand, UNLV is just trying to stay on the good side of the bubble, but they will have a great chance of doing so, as they host this entire tournament.

 SWAC: Jackson State (Dark Horse: Prairie View A & M)- The storyline here comes from the fact that the Tigers started the season 0-10, and now find themselves leading the conference by 2 games!  Is Jackson State the most resilient team in the country, or is the SWAC just that bad of a conference?

Big West: UC Santa Barbara (Dark Horse: Cal State Fullerton)- Another conference where it looks like the top  two teams (UCSB and Pacific) will battle it out for the crown.  The Gauchos swept their regular season meetings, so I’m giving them the edge.  If UCSB and/or Pacific stumble, look for defending champion CSF to capitalize.

Big East: Syracuse (Dark Horse: West Virginia)- The Cuse looked really good in their statement win over Nova on Saturday night.  They also usually play really well in the Big East tourney, but in such a tough, grueling event you can never count out a hard-nosed team like West Virginia.

WAC: Utah State (Dark Horse: Nevada)- The Aggies are playing lights out right now and probably deserve an at-large bid regardless of what they do in this tournament.  New Mexico State is the only team I see beating them but you can’t count out the tourney host, Nevada.

Atlantic 10: Temple (Dark Horse: Rhode Island)- Everyone is talking about the classic Xavier and Richmond played yesterday, but both teams lost to my lousy Wake Forest squad, so I’m not going to jump out of my chair about either one of them.   I still think Temple is the best team in this league, and in what should be a wild and crazy conference tourney, why can’t a bubble team like Rhode Island make some noise?

SEC: Kentucky (Dark Horse: Mississippi State)- Like Kansas, Kentucky has yet to lose a home or neutral site game this year.  They’ll also bring a ton of fans to Nashville so they’ll pretty much feel like they are playing in Rupp Arena.  However, there is a lot to like about Mississippi State and their chances to pull off a surprise two weeks from now.  They are the defending champions, they are playing well right now, and they almost beat Kentucky two weeks ago.

ACC: Duke (Dark Horse: NC State)- Is this Duke team different than the last hundred or so who have failed to make it past the Sweet 16?  Only time will tell.  However, the ACC is so down this year that they won’t need to play their best to win the conference crown in Greensboro and grab a # 1 seed.  No real dark horse stands out here, so I’m getting crazy  and going with the Wolfpack. They seem to be playing the best they have all year right now, just in time to save Sidney Lowe’s job and to make an ACC tourney run.  1983 anyone???

Big Ten: Ohio State (Dark Horse: Wisconsin)- The Buckeyes are the only top contender in the perenially overrated Big 10 not to have a glaring weakness that will haunt them in March.  Purdue is of course missing one of their best players.  Michigan State doesn’t have any big men.  Wisconsin can’t win a big game outside of Madison.  Therefore, OSU will take home this title by default, much like they do every year in football.

The month of miracles has begun!

The teams below are displayed below on an S-curve, so they are ranked from left to right within each seeding line.  The italicized teams are ones predicted to win their conference tourney and gain an automatic bid to the dance.  For the conferences who currently have NCAA tourney teams, it is assumed that one of those teams will win their conference tourney.  If not, then a stolen bid would result, and the number of at-large bids would drop.

You will notice that some of the # 13 seeded conference champions are listed both in the big dance field and the NIT field.  Their NIT inclusion simply shows what NIT seed that team would have if they were to lose in their conference tourney.  Obviously, if they were to win their respective conference tourneys, then they would be deleted from the NIT field, and little dance at-large spots would open up.  However, with the NIT, keep in mind that typically between 5-8 spots will be taken by small conference regular season champs who lose their conference tourneys and thereby get NIT auto bids.

NCAA Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke

2-seeds: Kansas State, Purdue, Villanova, West Virginia 

3-seeds: Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Ohio State, Michigan State

4-seeds: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Temple

5-seeds: Georgetown, Gonzaga, Butler, Brigham Young

6-seeds: Xavier, Texas, Baylor, Texas A & M

7-seeds: Maryland, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Richmond

8-seeds: California, UTEP, Northern Iowa, Louisville

9-seeds: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech

10-seeds: Wake Forest, UNLV, Cornell, Saint Mary’s

11-seeds: UAB, Rhode Island, Marquette, Illinois

12-seeds: Florida, Siena, Utah State, Old Dominion

13-seeds: Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Kent State, Oakland

14-seeds: Murray State, Sam Houston State, Wofford, Weber State

15-seeds: UC Santa Barbara, Morgan State, Troy, Coastal Carolina

16-seeds: Stony Brook, Quinnipiac, Lehigh, Lipscomb, Jackson State

NIT Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Dayton, San Diego State, Ole Miss, Connecticut

2-seeds: Minnesota, South Florida, Memphis, Cincinnati

3-seeds: Charlotte, Seton Hall, Washington, Arizona State

4-seeds: Saint Louis, Marshall, Wichita State, Tulsa

5-seeds: New Mexico State, William & Mary, VCU, Northeastern

6-seeds: Northwestern, St. John’s, Texas Tech, Miami-FL

7-seeds: North Carolina, Virginia, NC State, Louisiana Tech 

8-seeds: Kent State, Oakland, Illinois State, Rutgers 

Ranking of Other Postseason Contenders: South Carolina, Boston College, Nevada, Arizona, Portland, Washington State, Alabama

The teams below are displayed below on an S-curve, so they are ranked from left to right within each seeding line.  The italicized teams are ones predicted to win their conference tourney and gain an automatic bid to the dance.  For the conferences who currently have NCAA tourney teams, it is assumed that one of those teams will win their conference tourney.  If not, then a stolen bid would result, and the number of at-large bids would drop.

You will notice that some of the # 13 seeded conference champions are listed both in the big dance field and the NIT field.  Their NIT inclusion simply shows what NIT seed that team would have if they were to lose in their conference tourney.  Obviously, if they were to win their respective conference tourneys, then they would be deleted from the NIT field, and little dance at-large spots would open up.  However, with the NIT, keep in mind that typically between 5-8 spots will be taken by small conference regular season champs who lose their conference tourneys and thereby get NIT auto bids.

NCAA Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Purdue

2-seeds: Duke, Kansas State, Villanova, West Virginia 

3-seeds: Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Ohio State, Wisconsin

4-seeds: Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Georgetown

5-seeds: Temple, Gonzaga, Butler, Brigham Young

6-seeds: Richmond, Xavier, Texas, Baylor

7-seeds: Texas A & M, Maryland, Missouri, Oklahoma State

8-seeds: California, UTEP, Northern Iowa, Florida State

9-seeds: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest

10-seeds: UNLV, Louisville, Cornell, Saint Mary’s

11-seeds: UAB, Rhode Island, Marquette, Illinois

12-seeds: Florida, Siena, Utah State, Old Dominion

13-seeds: Connecticut, Notre Dame, Kent State, Oakland

14-seeds: Murray State, Weber State, Sam Houston State, Wofford

15-seeds: North Texas, UC Santa Barbara, Coastal Carolina, Stony Brook

16-seeds: Jacksonville, Morgan State, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Jackson State

NIT Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Mississippi State, Dayton, San Diego State, Ole Miss

2-seeds: Seton Hall, Minnesota, South Florida, Memphis

3-seeds: Cincinnati, Charlotte, Washington, Arizona State

4-seeds: Saint Louis, Marshall, Wichita State, Northwestern

5-seeds: Tulsa, William & Mary, Virginia, VCU

6-seeds: New Mexico State, Northeastern, Texas Tech, Miami-FL

7-seeds: North Carolina, NC State, St. John’s, Louisiana Tech 

8-seeds: Kent State, Oakland, Nevada, Illinois State 

Ranking of Other Postseason Contenders: Rutgers, South Carolina, Boston College, Arizona, Portland, Washington State, Alabama