Now that the Trojans are out of national title contention for at least a couple of years, the Pac-10 becomes like the ACC in that it has great depth but lacks a team that will contend for the national title.  In fact, the two teams I have picked at the top of the conference are surprised picks ranked outside of my top 10.  You may then wonder how I can still rank the Pac-10 as the third best conference without the presence of a national title contender.  My answer would be that this year’s Pac-10 has 8 teams ranked in my top 41 in the nation.  That’s basically 1/5 of all teams that I believe will get at least 7 wins.  And because the Pac-10 has then comprehensive nine game conference schedule, every team in the league will have at least 7 opponents ranked in my preseason top 45.  No other conference can come close to saying that. 

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

1.  OREGON STATE (11)- Is it just me or does it seem like the Rodgers’ brothers have been playing for Oregon State for about 10 years now?  Believe it or not the better of the two brothers, Jacquizz, is only a junior.  The Beavers return 13 other starters from a team that came within a possession of the Pac-10 crown last season.  They do have to break-in a new quarterback, but expect Ryan Katz (son of the great Howard Katz) to emerge as a reliable starter.  Mike Riley has done everything at OSU except take them to the Rose bowl, and it’s time about time that 46-year drought ends.  (Postseason Prediction: Rose Bowl vs. Iowa; Oregon State’s 46-year Rose Bowl drought finally ends.)

2.  Washington (17)- This will be one of those picks that defines my prognostication success for the season.  I am asking a lot of a team that hasn’t made a bowl in 10 seasons, but all the cards are in place for a surprising run at the Pac-10 crown.  They have a wealth of experience (18 returning starters), a superstar quarterback (Jake Locker), a dynamic, young coach (Steve Sarkisian), and a conference that is as wide open as ever. (thanks to USC).  (Postseason Prediction: Alamo Bowl vs. Texas A & M)

3.  Oregon (20)- This was the obvious conference championship pick before they were overcome with a series of offseason disasters including the expulsion of Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and suspension of Running Back LaMichael James.  Concerns about leadership and character are now very evident, and even though the Ducks were able to overcome similar problems last season, I think the impending QB controversy will cost them a few games.  (Postseason Prediction: Holiday Bowl vs. Missouri)

4.  Southern Cal (24)- This is clearly the wildcard team in the entire country, as no one can really predict how the Trojans will handle their probation their postseason ban.  Will they use it as motivation like the undefeated 1993 Auburn Tigers, or will they simply pack it in like last year’s USC basketball team.  It troubles me that this squad looked lethargic at times last season when they actually had something to play for.  These Trojans may be a little better than year’s bunch, but the probation and its effects on the program’s morale may prove costly.  (Postseason Prediction: Ineligible- sorry guys!)

5.  Stanford (27)- I was dead-on with my Stanford surprise pick last year, as I called them to finish in the top half of the Pac-10 for the first time in several years.  Many alums didn’t even believe me, but they actually ended up exceeding my lofty expectations by almost winning the conference title.  Now, a lot of people are picking Stanford to continue to move forward this season, but I think the loss of Gerhart will actually knock this program back a step.  Andrew Luck is definitely a great QB but he’ll have a lot more pressure on him without Gerhart there to lead the offense.  (Postseason Prediction: Sun Bowl vs. Georgia Tech; another trip to El Paso for the Cardinal)

6.  Arizona (31)- There is a lot to like about this year’s Wildcats, such as their schedule which includes 5 Pac-10 home games and their dynamic returning skill players Nick Foles and Nic Grisby.  This team’s downfall, however, will be their defense which only returns 4 starters from a unit that wasn’t very good last year.  They also have a new defensive coordinator who will be introducing new schemes that this squad must adjust to quickly.  (Postseason Prediction: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Brigham Young)

7.  California (38)- The Bears need to get off to a good start as testers against Colorado and at Nevada come in weeks 2 and 3.  Losses in both of those and the Bears will have a difficult climb to get to an eighth straight bowl game.  Expect a breakout season from quarterback Kein Riley, but the departure of Javhid Best will hurt. (Postseason Prediction: Kraft Hunger Bowl vs. Nevada; good bowl game, horrible bowl name)

8.  UCLA (41)- You may ask how can I have a team ranked in the top 45 not in a bowl game.  It’s pretty easy when nine teams on their schedule are better than them.  Besides the seven teams I have ranked ahead of Bruins in the conference, UCLA also plays two non-conference games versus national title contenders Houston and Texas.  It should also be mentioned that the Bruins third non-conference game is in Manhattan against a solid Kansas State squad.  Not sure who made UCLA’s schedule, but they certainly didn’t take into account the fact that you must win 6 regular season games to qualify for a bowl. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

9.  Arizona State (62)- The start of the Dennis Erickson regime looked so promising, as the legendary coach had his team on the verge of a BCS bid in just his first season in 2007.  Then, the Devils were unfairly and inexcusably passed up by the BCS for a horrible Illinois team, and this squad has literally never been the same.  In fact, they’ve failed to qualify for a bowl, or more importantly beat archrival Arizona, the last two seasons.  Now, Michigan transfer Steve Threet comes in to try to salvage Erickson’s disappointing tenure.  I think Threet will be a nice addition, but the team only returns 9 total starters, and has to play 5 conference road games as well as a brutal non-conference game versus Wisconsin.  In this year’s Pac-10, I just don’t think a bowl bid is likely. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)  

10.  Washington State (92)- Do I think Paul Wulff is the right man for the Washington State job?  Probably not.   The Cougars need a miracle worker, and Wulff seems to just be an average college football coach.  With that being said, this team will be better than the two squads Wazzou put out on the field in 2008 and 2009.  In other words, this group could actually beat most high school varsity teams in the country..  Kidding aside, I believe the Cougars are capable of winning a conference game, but unfortunately their two best chances at a victory, versus UCLA and Arizona State, are both road games.  Another one-win season seems likely, as Wazzou will once again put up a goose egg in conference play.  Wulff is probably gone after December 4th’s Apple Cup.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)     

Yes, I know that now that picking the Big 10 as the fourth strongest conference is probably based on my anti-Big 10 bias, but I just can’t take a conference seriously that possesses an obscure uneven scheduling system that doesn’t result in a title game.  I know they go to 12 teams next year, but I haven’t heard anything about how or if the conference will be divided into divisions.  If the Big 10 continues to have a division-less league, then how about having a 2-game playoff featuring the league’s top 4 teams to end the season?  I know this is a longshot, but that would definitely bring some excitement to a league that produces very little of that kind of thing.  The Cornhuskers are certainly good addition to the Big 10 in terms of quality, but they don’t do much for the conference stylistically, as the Huskers play the same boring defensive-minded football that characterizes the rest of the league.  In regard to this particular season, the Big 10 will play out just as it always does.  A couple of good teams on top, a few decent ones in the middle, and a slew of bottom feeders in the conference basement.

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

1.  OHIO STATE (2)- There is a logical rule in place that prevents teams for getting credit for multiple wins over Division 1-AA opponents.  Now, why can’t there be another logical rule that prevents teams for getting credit for having more than seven home wins.  The Buckeyes will play a ridiculous 8 true home games this season, setting the stage for another disastrous performance in the BCS Title Game.  (Postseason Prediction: BCS Championship Game vs. Alabama; this game certainly a familiar look to it, as another SEC vs. OSU beatdown appears imminent.)

2.  Iowa (7)- The Hawkeyes have a lot of momentum going into this season due to their huge Orange Bowl win last January.  Stanzi is back healthy at quarterback, their running back and receiver corps remain intact, and their staunch defense return 8 starters.  The Hawkeyes also get to play Ohio State at home.  The main obstacle will be how Iowa handles the immense pressure they face coming into this season.  Expectations are as high as ever in Iowa City, and unlike, last year the Hawkeyes aren’t going to be sneaking up on anybody.  Iowa will have another tremendous season, but I feel like all the lucky breaks and close wins they were afforded last year won’t be in the cards this time around. (Postseason Prediction: Rose Bowl vs. Oregon State)

3.  Wisconsin (10)- John Clay is the best running back in the league, and he could have a 2,000 yard season if he gets enough touches.  15 other starters return for the Badgers, who could better their 10-3 mark from last year.  Other than back-to-back games against Ohio State and Iowa, Wisconsin should be favored in every other game they play this season, which is just as much of a compliment for the team as a criticism of their cupcake schedule.  (Postseason Prediction: Capital One Bowl vs. Florida)

4.  Penn State (22)- This will be a pseudo rebuilding year for JoePa and the Lions, as they will have to break-in a new quarterback and six new starting defenders.  Royster should be able to carry the load on offense, but this team has possibly the toughest three road games in the country having to play at Ohio State, at Iowa, and at Alabama.  If they win any of those games, I’ll be stunned.  (Postseason Prediction: Outback Bowl vs. South Carolina)

5.  Northwestern (39)- I haven’t labeled the Wildcats a surprise team, but I have them ranked a little higher than most publications based on their impressive performance in the Outback Bowl.  Even though, they lost they played a solid Auburn team into overtime.  They return 13 starters from that squad and don’t have to play Ohio State in conference. (Postseason Prediction: Insight Bowl vs. Texas Tech; this will be a great chance for the Wildcats to get their first bowl win since the 1940s)

6.  Michigan State (44)- Just like Northwester, the Spartans also return 13 starters and don’t have to play OSU.  I’m only giving the Wildcats a slight nod for fifth place because they get the Spartans at home and are coming off a slightly better season than MSU. (Postseason Prediction: Gator Bowl vs. LSU)

7.  Michigan (48)- It has always taken Rich Rodriguez a year or two to fully install his option attacks at a particular program.  That is why Michigan gave Rich Rod another year to prove himself, despite the numerous off the field problems he has been associated with.  I do think that this team has the talent to get to a bowl this year, but a brutal schedule will make it close  They will probably need to beat either UConn or Notre Dame in their first two games to have a legitimate shot at postseason play. I think these guys really need to pick either Forcier or Robinson as the starter and stick to him.  The QB controversy at the end of last year was a mess.  (Postseason Prediction: Texas Bowl vs. Kansas State)

8.  Purdue (58)- The Boilermakers came close to making a bowl last year, and they’ll be in about the same situation this year.  But thanks to 3 cupcake non-conference games I’m calling for Purdue to get to 6-6 and sneak into the inaugural Dallas Football Classic, though I’m not really sure why Dallas needed a second bowl game.  The success of this team may come down to the play of heralded transfer Robert Marve who failed to live up to his potential at Miami.  (Postseason Prediction: Dallas Football Classic vs. South Florida)

9.  Minnesota (78)- The loss of superstar receiver Eric Decker is the obvious concern for this squad, but they also only return 2 starters on defense.  They have three very winnable non-conference games, but they only get to play one of the two Big 10 bottom feeders, so they’ll have a tough time getting to the magic 6-win mark.   (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

10.  Indiana (86)- Last year, the Hoosiers made the mistake of playing a non-conference game against a living, breathing football team when they got pounded at Virginia.  Now, Indiana plays 4 cupcake games out of conference, meaning that this abysmal team will get to a bowl if they can beat Illinois and one other conference foe.  And you wonder why I think the Big 10 is a joke.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

11.  Illinois (89)- You may see a pattern between Kansas, Illinois, and South Florida. Last year, I picked all them to surprise because they were all experienced squads led by superstar quarterbacks.  Well all three picks turned out pretty badly, as only USF qualified for a bowl game.  Now, each of these teams are having to replace their few quality players, which for Illinois is quarterback Juice Williams and receiver Arrelious Benn.  Because of this, I don’t see the Illini getting more than the three wins they had last year (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

Many feared that conference realignment might hurt the ACC as rumors swirled of possible defections by Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson.  In the end, the conference was unaffected by the changes and still looks to overcome its stigma of being a “basketball-only conference”.  The problem with the ACC has not necessarily been its depth, but the perennial lack of national championship contenders.  The ACC hasn’t had a team make a legitimate title run  since Miami in the early 2000s, which is by far the longest drought of all the conferences.  Unfortunately, that will again be this conference’s downfall in 2010.  Miami and Florida State will be much improved, but both teams are miles away from the dominant squads they had in the 80s and 90s.  The Coastal Division will actually be one of the deepest divisions in any conference, but expect for its top 4 teams to just beat each other senseless.  The ACC will definitely showcase some good football this season, but I’m afraid the title game, which is being played in Charlotte for the first-time ever, will once again be the most overlooked and least important of all of the championship week games. 

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

ACC Atlantic

1.  Florida State (19)- Many people are predicting that Christian Ponder makes a dark horse Heisman run this year.  However, based on some of last year’s dreadful performances (i.e. vs. Clemson), I just don’t see it happening.  In fact, E.J. Manuel could and probably should see a little time behind center to give the Noles another running threat in the backfield.  The Noles have underachieved for three straight years now, but I think they finally take back the division crown by being the most athletic and experienced squad in a division that saw several of its stars plundered by both the NFL and MLB drafts.  (Postseason Prediction: Chick-Fil-A Bowl vs. Georgia; I refused to call the former Peach Bowl by its commercialized name for the longest time.  However, now that Chick-Fil-A has introduced its delicious spicy chicken sandwich, I’ve finally agreed to call this bowl by its new age name.)

2.  Boston College (35)- If cancer survivor Mark Herzlich has a great season, it will definitely be the sentimental storyline of the year in all of sports.  I’ve been impressed that the Eagles have continued to make bowl games and contend for division titles despite major personnel changes the last past few seasons.  They’ve lost two head coaches in consecutive seasons and star quarterback Matt Ryan, yet they played in five consecutive bowl games.  This year’s Eagles squad actually has some familiar faces on it, as they return the head coach, running back, quarterback, and 12 other starters from last year’s 8-5 team.  This stability, as well as a fairly weak schedule, might give BC a chance to make an improbable run at a division title.  (Postseason Prediction: Independence Bowl vs. Brigham Young ; the battle of the Catholics and Mormons!)

3.  Clemson (43)- The losses of Jacoby Ford, C.J. Spiller, and possibly Kyle Parker will certainly take its toll on the Tigers this season.  However, the Tigers are still very talented on both lines and have a potential superstar in Tajh Boyd at quarterback.  Clemson will once again be an upper echelon ACC team, but I think the Tigers are a year or two away from winning the division again. (Postseason prediction: Meineke Car Care Bowl vs. Notre Dame; two of football’s most evil empires collide)

4.  NC State (51)- With Russell Wilson and six other starters coming back, the Pack should be able to put some points up this season.  Unfortunately, NC State’s downfall has been its defense that gave up 30+ points in 8 games last year.  The defense only returns 5 starters, which is not necessarily be a bad thing if their replacements are more talented.  The Pack have only qualified for one bowl game in the past 4 years, but they should be able to get to six wins this season thanks to a pretty favorable non-conference slate.  (Postseason Prediction: EagleBank Bowl vs. Marshall) 

5.  Wake Forest (65)- All the remnants of the 2006 Cinderella season are finally gone, as every player on that Orange Bowl squad has now graduated.  Gone too is the underdog swagger that enabled that team overachieve like they did.  Last year, the Deacs packed it in down the stretch and ended up falling short of a bowl for the first time in four years.  Now, there are major, major, major questions at quarterback with as many as three or four guys in contention for the starting spot as the season approaches.  They are loaded at running back and receiver but a new option attack on offense may be difficult to adjust to.  Don’t see Wake making a bowl this year, but I don’t expect a disastrous downfall to the conference basement either.  (Postseason Prediction: N Bowl Game)    

6.  Maryland (76)- The Terrapins football program is exhibit A of why the coach-in-waiting system is not  always a good idea.  Friedgen’s struggles the last few years have many calling for a complete overhaul of this program, despite the fact that offensive coordinator James Franklin has been already been named the successor.  After last year’s 2-10 season, the morale is low in College Park, and the Terps will continue to struggle this season, as inexperience at the quarterback and in the secondary will greatly hinder their success.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

ACC Coastal

1.  MIAMI-FL (13)- I’m not going as far as to say that “the U is back”, but this Canes team is the best they’ve had in several years.  If Jacory Harris can become a more consistent dual threat quarterback, then the Canes can win this division and setup an intriguing matchup against in-state rival FSU in the conference title game.  We’ll find out a lot about this team when they play at Ohio State in Week 2 of the season.  (Postseason Prediction: Orange Bowl vs. West Virginia)

2.  Virginia Tech (15)- With Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Williams, and Darren Evans returning, this team should have one of the most athletic backfields in the conference, if not the country.  Strangely enough, this teams’ problem could be its defense, which has always been its strength under Frank Beamer.  Only four starters return on that side of the ball, so I’m going to call for a runner-up finish in the Coastal.  Opener against Boise is huge and should be cause for concern because of VT’s poor play in its past three seasons openers. (Postseason Prediction: Champs Sports Bowl vs. Pittsburgh; this will be the best pre-New Year’s bowl game)

3.  Georgia Tech (30)- Any doubters of Paul Johnson’s success, such as myself, should be silenced now.  The Jackets took home the conference crown last year after I pegged them as one of my disappointment teams in the preseason.  Nesbitt returns at quarterback but the loss of Jonathan Dwyer has me calling for a few less wins this season.  They also have to play two of the other three division title contenders on the road.  (Postseason Prediction: Sun Bowl vs. Stanford; why the ACC agreed to send a representative to this game?  I can’t think of a worse location for a bowl besides maybe New York City.) 

4.  North Carolina (33)- The Tar Heels are a trendy conference title pick this season, as they bring back 19 starters including several top NFL prospects.  However, I still have questions about quarterback T.J. Yates and his abysmal TD/INT ratio from last year (14/15).  This seems to be a program that just hasn’t quite been able to get over the hump, and I think the Coastal is simply too talented for them to win the division this year. (Postseason Prediction: Music City Bowl vs. Auburn) 

5.  Duke (79)- Honestly, the biggest thing keeping the Blue Devils from making their first bowl in 16 years may be the schedule.  Last year, they screwed themselves over by scheduling a game against NC Central that didn’t count towards bowl eligibility because of their Division II statuts.  This year’s non-conference schedule includes the # 1 team in the country (Alabama), a top 5 Divison 1-AA team (Elon), and a road game against the tricky Midshipmen of Navy.  All three games could result in losses, which would make a 6-win season virtually impossible.  The Devils need to figure out that a schedule featuring 3 or 4 winnable non-conference games is the only way they’ll be able to get to a bowl game in the future.  This year’s squad will have to break-in a new quarterback, but they have experience most everywhere else.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)   

6.  Virginia (81)- Mike London should be able to use his local connections to bring this team back to prominence in the Coastal.  However, this year’s squad just isn’t talented enough to improve much on last year’s 3-9 mark.  New schemes, new quarterback, and a tough schedule will keep this team in the conference basement.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

I think we all saw just how weak the Big East can be when Cincinnati got absolutely demolished in the Sugar Bowl by Florida.  The top teams of this conference are just several steps behind the powerhouses in the other five major conferences.  However, the depth of the Big East is pretty solid with six teams capable of winning the league.   

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

1.  West Virginia (12)- The Mountaineers play best when they’re being overlooked (see 2007 Fiesta Bowl), and that is exactly what is happening this season in Morgantown.  The Pitt Panthers are the trendy pick to win the title, but the Mountaineers are the more experienced group, as they bring back 16 starters from last year’s squad.  The defense should be as good as ever, and Devine should provide enough spark on offense to take the pressure off your quarterback Geno Smith.  (Postseason Prediction: Orange Bowl vs. Miami-FL)

2.  Pittsburgh (21)- The Wannstache has done better than I thought he would at Pitt, but because he has failed to win any kind of championship at any level, as either an assistant or head coach, then I just can’t pick the guy to do it this year. (Postseason Prediction: Champs Sports Bowl vs. Virginia Tech; best early season bowl matchup)

3.  Connecticut (25)- Connecticut has had years where they caught all the breaks, such as in 2007 when they almost won the conference crown, and years where they couldn’t buy a break like last year where all five of their losses came by four points or less.  If the football gods are on the Huskies side this season, then they could win the conference crown as this is likely Edsall’s most talented team in his 12 years at the school. (Postseason Prediction: St. Petersburg Bowl vs. Central Florida)

4.  Rutgers (36)- QB/WR combo Savage and Sanu should lead this team to a solid bowl game and possibly beyond if they catch some breaks.  Unfortunately, they play four of the other conference title contenders on the road. (Postseason Prediction: Pinstripe Bowl vs. Baylor; Baylor finally makes a bowl game!)

5.  Cincinnati (43)- It’s tough to drop an undefeated conference champ to the bottom half of the conference, but that is what happens when you lose two superstar players, Gilyard and Pike, as well as your offensive mastermind of a head coach.  Collaros should still give this team a dual threat attack on offense, but this time they won’t be able to score enough points to compensate for a dreadful defense that became increasingly more exposed as the 2009 season progressed. (Postseason Prediction: Papajohns.com Bowl vs. Kentucky; battle of two basketball powerhouses who never play each other in either sport despite being located only 90 miles apart.)

6.  South Florida (55)- This disappointment pick could come back to haunt me, but I’m mad at the Bulls for making me look silly last year by finishing 4^th after I picked them to win the conference.  I could see B.J. Daniels end up being a one-hit athletic wonder much like Juice Williams or a dual threat superstar like Vince Young.  It may also take this team awhile to adjust to Skip Holtz’s new scheme. However, the Bulls, like the five teams in front of them, have the talent to win the conference crown. (Postseason Prediction: Dallas Football Classic vs. Purdue; Big 12 won’t be able to fill this spot)

7.  Louisville (68)- Charlie Steele has been one of the best assistants in the nation for over a decade now, and no one deserves a heading coaching job more than he does.  I didn’t like the Kragthorpe hire, and I was spot on with my criticism.  Steele, however, will be the right man for the job, but new schemes will keep this team near the bottom of the conference for now.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

8.  Syracuse (83)- How long will Syracuse flounder around at the bottom of the Big East?  A school of this size with this many resources should be able to rebuild a program rather easily, but the Cuse look more and more look like a school primarily focused on the basketball program.  It’s too early to evaluate the Marrone tenure, but questions at about QB and RB should keep this team in the basement.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

Don’t really have a good place to put my blog entry for the Independents, so I thought a logical place would be sandwiched between the BCS and non-BCS conferences.  The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

1.  Notre Dame (29)- Charlie Weis’ squads annually disappointed with last year’s team being by far the worse.  Phil Steele loves to brag about his bad picks but he shoves his horrible ones under the rug by not mentioning then in his magazine.  Well, for the record, he had the Irish finishing 7^th in the country last year when they ended up at 66.  A team that finished that low the year before and loses its two star players is hardly ever predicted to finish in the top 30.  However, I think last year’s issues largely stemmed from internal dissension that will be resolved under Kelly’s structure and unity. (Postseason Prediction: Meineke Car Care Bowl vs. Clemson)

2.  Navy (32)- This squad really puzzles me because I feel like they have the talent level to finish between 40^th and 50^th in the country with one of their typical 8-4 seasons accompanied by a trip to their preset bowl tie-in.  However, their schedule this year is so jaw-droppingly easy that the Middies may be favored in every single game except against Notre Dame, which will still be very winnable.  Could an undefeated Navy squad sneak into the BCS even with a cupcake schedule?  It seems like it would be unpatriotic not to do give them a BCS invite, but keep in mind that the BCS is an anti-American terrorist organization that has previously committed much greater injustices than this. (Postseason Prediction: Poinsettia Bowl vs. San Diego State)

3.  Army (72)- This program has made significant progress over the past few years, but unfortunately, no one has really noticed because they don’t have a conference in which they can ascend.  The major goals here are to make a bowl game and beat Navy, which they just haven’t quite been able to do.  Not sure either of those things happen this year, as I have this team finishing about 5-7, just like last season. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

To  summarize my non-BCS conference rankings so far, I’m calling for the C-USA and Sun Belt to be better than usual and for their be down years in the MAC and WAC.  Believe it or not, I’m also going to predict that the Mountain West will be weaker this season.  TCU will again be among the nation’s elite teams, but after that I see most of the teams in the league taking a step back this season for various reasons.  Don’t get me wrong, the MWC will still be the best of the little guys, but I just don’t think you will see the results necessary to convince Bill Hancock and company that this conference deserves a BCS auto bid in the future.

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

1.  TCU (5)- I’ll give the Horned Frogs at least a 50/50 chance of running the table again, but even if they do, then no one will likely care.  Boise seems to be the team that is getting all the non-BCS hype this season, and with the loss of their superstar Defensive End Jerry Hughes, I think the Frogs will simply be dismissed as a slightly weaker version of last year’s squad.  However, I’m predicting they still make a BCS game and get a shot at my predicted Big 12 Champ, Oklahoma. (Postseason prediction: Fiesta Bowl vs. Oklahoma; this will be the first of two BCS matchups between Big 12 teams and non-BCS powerhouses.)

2.  Utah (34)- The Utes will once again have to rely on their offense to carry them this season, as Jordan Wynn will lead a unit with eight returning starters.  Meanwhile, only four come back on defense including no linebackers and only one member of the secondary.  Their opener versus Pitt at home will be huge.  (Postseason Prediction: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Arizona; Brigham Young’s odd Las Vegas Bowl streak will finally come to an end.)

3.  San Diego State (61)- Yes, this pick may drop a few jaws, but I got to go with my gut on a couple of these surprise picks each season.  Brady Hoke can flat-out coach and you’ll see him produce some solid results this season, as the Aztecs will become a surprise bowl team. (Postseason Prediction: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Navy; this bowl will be happy to have the hometown team participate.)

4.  Brigham Young (66)- As you can see, I am calling for a shakeup in the Big 3, as I am predicting BYU to not finish in the top third of this conference.  They’ll still make a bowl game, but major personnel changes will result in a rebuilding year in Provo.  (Postseason Prediction: Independence Bowl vs. Boston College; it’s going to be the battle between the catholics and the mormons!)

5.  Wyoming (73)- Head Coach Dave Christensen clearly has this program going in the right direction after a dramatic win in last year’s New Mexico Bowl.  The Cowboys may be more talented than last year’s squad, but a tough schedule has me calling for a return postseason trip to Albuquerque.  (Postseason Prediction: New Mexico Bowl vs. Kent State; )

6.  Air Force (88)- As you can see, I am definitely predicting a major shake up in the traditional power structure of this conference.  Major personnel changes are the big reason why, and why I am picking Air Force to end their streak of three straight bowl games.  For the Falcons, the offensive line will be the unit that will be their achilles’ heel this season.  Their inexperienced and undersized blockers will hinder them from successfully running their traditionally potent option attack.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

7.  UNLV (101)- Tough schedule along with a new coach with new schemes will prevent the Rebels from making many forward strides this season.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

8.  Colorado State (103)- Where has this once prominent program gone?  They always play the rival Buffaloes well, but this team has been miles away from the upper echelon MWC teams who they previously challenged on an annual basis.  Defense will be solid, but the offense will keep this team down near the conference basement.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

9.  New Mexico (106)- No one has had a more disastrous first year at a  job than Mike Locksley, who was overwhelmed with both on the field and off the field problems.  Now, they have to develop a freshman quarterback with a schedule that is torturous at best.  In fact, I’m predicting every single one of their home opponents to be in a bowl game this postseason.  I’m not sure there is another team in the country that can say that.  Getting two or three wins this yeah will be quite an accomplishment for this squad..  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

For the first time since I started my preview guide, I am changing the order of my conference rankings.  Since 2007, I have ranked the conferences: 1) SEC, 2) Big 12, 3) Pac-10, 4) Big 10, 5) ACC, 6) Big East, 7) Mountain West, (8) WAC, 9) C-USA, 10) MAC, and 11) Sun Belt.  That is about where the conference RPIs have stacked up in each of those seasons.  However, I am officially moving the C-USA up the rankings past the WAC.  The reason being is that this conference now lays claim to six of the top 15 non-BCS teams according to my national rankings.  Those six teams should all make bowl games and have great chances of knocking off BCS opponents in the St. Petersburg Bowl and Liberty Bowl.  They also could have a squad that make a dark horse run at a BCS bid, as the Houston Cougars will win lots of games by putting up more points than any team in the country.

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

C-USA East

1.  Central Florida (56)- Rob Calabrese may be one of the best quarterbacks you’ve never heard of.  Now that he doesn’t have to battle for his starting job with former Wake Forest transfer Brett Hodges expect him to shine in this junior season.  The Knights are also the most balanced team in the conference with few weaknesses on either the offensive or defensive sides of the ball.  The problem is that UCF must travel to Houston during the regular season, and a loss their will likely give Houston home field advantage in their rematch in the conference title game.  I just don’t see this team beating Keenum’s crew on the road, which is why I’m calling them to win the division but fall short of the conference crown.  (Postseason Prediction: St. Petersburg Bowl vs. Connecticut)

2.  Marshall (82)- The Herd really surprised me last year by making their first bowl game in five years and winning their first since 2002.  They have 14 starters back and get UCF at home, but a new coach with new schemes has me calling for them to finish just a bit short of a division title. (Postseason Prediction: EagleBank Bowl vs. NC State)

3.  UAB (91)- I kinda took a shot in the dark last year by going with my gut and picking UAB and Kent State as two of my top surprise teams.  Both of these squads exceeded most everyone’s expectations, as each came within just a few plays of making a bowl game.  As you saw in my MAC preview, I am calling for Kent State to finally get over the hump and qualify for their first bowl game since 1972.  Unfortunately I can’t make the same prediction for the Blazers.  I think the C-USA is too strong and their schedule too tough for them to get to six or seven wins this season. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

4.  Southern Miss (93)- Only three offensive starters return on a unit that was surprisingly forced to carry the defense at times last season.  Fedora will have a difficult time running his high octane offense with this inexperience group and the Golden Eagles will take a major step back this year, much like their division rival ECU- see below. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

5.  East Carolina (95)- Yes, many Pirate fans aren’t going to like this prediction, especially with the excitement stemming from a new coach and a new stadium.  However, the sad truth is that the Pirates will not be very good this year.  First of all, I wasn’t crazy about the Ruffin McNeill hire, as his defensive units consistently prevented Texas Tech from contending for the Big 12 title.  Also, the schedule is brutal with the Pirates having to play three ACC foes and Navy out of conference.  Finally, only two starters return on defense, one of the lowest totals in the country.  The Pirates should be back to bowl eligibility in a couple of years, but don’t expect more than 3 or 4 wins out of the 2010 squad. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

6.  Memphis (112)- They have a new popular coach, but new schemes and a new attitude won’t just magically turnaround a 2-10 program that is in complete disarray.  Larry Porter’s rebuilding job with be a long-term process, and with a brutal schedule, the Tigers may be hard pressed to get a victory this season. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

C-USA West

1.  HOUSTON (28)- There really is no team on the schedule that the Cougars can’t beat, and they may in fact be favored in all 13 of their games.  The toughest test will come in week 3 at UCLA, and I’m even not sure if the Bruins have the offensive firepower to hang with Houston.  However, I do see this squad dropping a couple of games somewhere down the line because their inept defense frequently keeps inferior opponents in the game.  The Cougars will win the conference and QB Keenum will make a longshot Heisman run. (Postseason Prediction: Liberty Bowl vs. Tennessee; not sure if the C-USA team has ever been favored over their SEC opponent in this game, but the Cougars will definitely be favored here.)

2.  SMU (69)- Yes, I do realize I have capitalized the name SMU, but I’m doing that just because that is how to properly it, not because I am predicting them to win the conference.  That’s not say however that they won’t at least make a run at the conference crown.  The Mustangs shocked the nation with a Christmas Eve blowout of Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl last season, and they should carry that momentum with them into their 2010 campaign.  The death penalty curse if finally off their back, they have 15 returning starters, and they will get to play Houston at home on homecoming in late October.  After having the unique distinction of coaching a one-loss team and a one-win team in consecutive seasons, June Jones is returning SMU football to prominence.  (Postseason Prediction: Hawaii Bowl vs. Hawaii; June Jones redemption game!)

3.  Tulsa (74)- Aside from putting up a good fight against Boise, the Golden Hurricane had quite a disappointing season last year.  I think the 9 returning offensive starters finally play up to their potential this season and have Tulsa once again contending for a division title and playing in a bowl game. (Postseason Prediction: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Northern Illinois)

4.  UTEP (80)- After their back-to-back bowl trips in 2004 and 2005, people expected the Miners to be a perennial C-USA powerhouse under Mike Price.  Unfortunately, things haven’t really panned out that way as UTEP has come up short of bowl eligibility in four consecutive seasons.  However, with Trevor Vittaoe coming back for what seems like his 15th season at quarterback, the Miners will take advantage of an easy non-conference schedule to get 6 or 7 wins and a bowl bid.  (Postseason Prediction: New Orleans Bowl vs. Middle Tennessee State; expect the Miners to have quite a culture shock as they travel from maybe the most boring place in the country in El Paso, TX to maybe the most exciting place in the country in New Orleans.)

5.  Tulane (114)- For some reason, the Bob Toledo experiment just hasn’t worked out in New Orleans.  I really liked this hire initially, but unfortunately Toledo just hasn’t been able to bring in the talent to achieve the kind of success he had at UCLA.  This will probably be his last year as the Green Wave will once again flounder around at the bottom of the conference. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

6.  Rice (116)- The Owls had an epic collapse last season after their Cinderella 2008 campaign.  Now, the Owls are faced with three non-conference games versus bowl-quality BCS opponents.  Eighteen returning starters isn’t necessarily a good thing if they aren’t very good players.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

The WAC will take a major hit next year with the departure of Boise, as the Broncos are the only thing making this conference stronger than the MAC.  Boise State will once again win the conference, but they’ll have tougher competition at the top from stronger Nevada and Fresno squads.  On the other hand, the bottom of the WAC is as weak as ever with teams 5-9 all finishing near the bottom of 1-A

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

1.  BOISE STATE (3)- Once again the only thing holding back the Broncos from a national title may be the pollsters.  Many people are claiming that if this team beats VT and runs the table the rest of the way that they have a great chance of making the title game.  Well, I’m not buying it, since Boise essentially did the exact same thing last year by beating Oregon in the opener and then running through the WAC.  In fact, their undefeated 2009 campaign didn’t even get them close to the title game, as they finished the regular season at # 6 in the polls.  A good friend of mine said it best when discussing the possibility of a non-BCS team making the title game, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”  I agree, and that is why I think Boise once again will be forgotten after a big win against the Hokies and will even get passed up by a one-loss Bama squad for a spot in the title game.  The evil smile of BCS President Bill Hancock will say it all: http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_college/files/2010/04/bill-hancock.jpg.  (Postseason Prediction: Sugar Bowl vs. Texas; this will be the second of two BCS matchups between Big 12 teams and non-BCS powerhouses.)

 2.  Nevada (42)- Colin Kapernick will once again put up obscene number running Chris Ault’s pistol offense.  Kapernick is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, but he may not be the best in conference because of Boise’s Kellen Moore.  Both Moore and Kapernick should contend for the Heisman, and both of their teams should contend for the conference crown, as the Pack will the the Broncos all they can handle when they play them in Reno on November 26^th. (Postseason Prediction: Kraft Hunger Bowl vs. California; good bowl game, horrible bowl name)

3.  Fresno State (47)- This will be Pat Hill’s best team in several years, as I predict that they will once again knock off a Divison 1-A powerhouse by beating Cincy in their opener. (Postseason Prediction: Humanitarian Bowl vs. Central Michigan)

4.  Hawaii (84)- There is a huge drop-off in this conference after the top three, but the Rainbow Warriors will be back in a bowl game after last year’s disappointing 6-7 campaign. (Postseason Prediction: Hawaii Bowl vs. SMU; June Jones redemption game!)

5.  Louisiana Tech (90)- The departure of Dooley won’t help a team that majorly disappointed last year.  The Dykes hire is interesting, and it could payoff in the long run, but improvements will be hard to come by this season. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

6.  Utah State (99)- The Aggies have improved slowly but surely over the last few seasons winning one game in 2006, two games in 2007, three games in 2008, and four last year.  Will they continue the streak this year  by winning 5?  With 8 returning starters on each side of the ball, they definitely have an opportunity to get at least that many.  However, a spring ACL injury to their star RB Robert Turbin and a fairly difficult non-conference schedule has me calling for another four win season. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

7.  New Mexico State (102)- The other Aggies in the conference also appear to be making positive strides under new leadership.  Head coach DeWayne Walker had NMSU at 3-3 last year before falling apart down the stretch.  Still, this team has 15 returning starters and has a great chance to win 4 or more games this year. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

8.  San Jose State (104)- With 15 returning starters and two cupcake non-conference games, it would seem like I would pick the Spartans to finish a lot higher than 8^th in the WAC.  However, those 15 starters are the same that produced just two wins last year.  Not to mention, they will have to adjust to a new coaching staff with a new set of schemes.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

9.  Idaho (109)- The Vandals may have been the story of the year in college football, but those hoping that such success would carry over to this season will be mistaken.  Only four starters return on offense, and while virtually their entire defense comes back, that unit was horrid down the stretch in 2009.  Robb Akey will once again get Idaho to a bowl, but it won’t be this season. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

The Mid-American conference will lack a solid top 25 team like they had the past two years with Ball State (2008) and Central Michigan (2009).  In fact, I don’t see any MAC teams finishing in the top 50 this year.  The conference will clearly be the worst in all the land, except for the Sun Belt of course. 

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

MAC East

1.  TEMPLE (71)- Running back Pierce should lead this team to their first MAC title, as Al Golden becomes one of the hottest coaching commodities in the country. (Postseason prediction: Little Caesars Bowl vs. UL-Lafayette)  

2.  Ohio (77)- I’m giving the Owls a slight nod in this division because the Bobcats have to play them on the road.  I would love to see Solich’s crew give Ohio State another early season scare this season.  (Postseason prediction: GMAC Bowl vs. Troy). 

3.  Kent State  (87)- I predicted the Golden Flashes would surprise last season, and they ended up finishing higher than all the other experts envisioned.  This year I see them taking one more step forward and playing in their first bowl since 1974. (Postseason prediction: New Mexico Bowl vs. Wyoming; this will be a replacement pick for the WAC who I predict will be unable to fill this tie-in.)

4.  Buffalo (96)- I greatly overestimated Buffalo last season, as I pegged them to repeat as MAC Champions and they ended up with a losing record in conference.  The loss of Drew Willy hurt them a lot more than I expected.  I am not going to make that mistake again, especially with this program basically having to start from scratch after the departure of Turner Gill. (Postseason prediction: No Bowl)

5.  Miami-OH (105)- It amazes me that this once prominent MAC program has struggled for so long recently.  I think they finally take some steps forward as they return more starters than almost any other team in the country with a grand total of 17. (Postseason prediction: No Bowl )

6.  Akron (107)- Major scheme changes that come with the hire of a new coach will keep the Zips near the bottom of the MAC. (Postseason prediction: No Bowl)

7.  Bowling Green (110)- If you read the intro above, you’ll know that my italics means a team is predicted to disappoint, and that is exactly what I see the Falcons doing this season.  Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes are gone and so are most of their supporting cast.  This is the textbook definition of a rebuilding season, and a brutal schedule won’t do anything to help matters.  (Postseason prediction: No Bowl)

MAC West

1.  Central Michigan (85)- Many people are calling for a huge letdown season for the Chippewas because of their losses at QB and head coach.  I think a lot of the doubt stems from Ball State’s analogous situation where they collapsed last season after losing their QB and coach from their 12-win 2008 campaign.  I think things will be different for CMU though as they return 7 starters on offense and 5 on defense.  This squad was miles better than anyone in this conference last year, and I think they have enough guys returning to stay atop this division. (Postseason prediction: Humanitarian Bowl vs. Fresno State)

2. Northern Illinois (94)- Jerry Kill is building a solid program, as the Huskies will make their second consecutive bowl this season.  QB controversy is the only thing that will prevent them from winning the division. (Postseason prediction: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Tulsa)  

3.  Toledo (98)- Quarterback Aaron Opelt was the one bright spot on an overall subpar Rockets squad last year.  Now, he’s gone and so are Toledo’s shot of making a bowl game.  (Postseason prediction: No Bowl)

4.  Western Michigan (100)- The Broncos were a huge disappointment last year, as they failed to make a bowl game with veteran QB Tim Hiller.  The defense will be a little better, but the offense will be much worse, so I’m predicting this team to make a slight drop in the standings and once again fall short of bowl eligibility.  (Postseason prediction: No Bowl) 

5.  Ball State (118)- Until Head Coach Stan Parrish wins more than two games in a season (something he hasn’t done in a quarter of a century), then I’m going to continue to call for struggles in Muncie.  Brutal late-season schedule won’t help matters. (Postseason prediction: No Bowl)

6.  Eastern Michigan (120)- They were probably the worst team in the nation last year, and things aren’t looking too bright for the Eagles this season either, as there are huge questions at quarterback, receiver, special teams, and on the defensive front.  I’m predicting that English drops to 0-24 when things are all said and done.  (Postseason prediction: No Bowl)

We’ll start with the worst of the conferences and work our way up from there.  The Sun Belt does seem to gradually make steps forward, as it now possesses two top teams I believe will finish in the top 65 in the country and three teams who will play in bowl games.  Still, the conference has a long way to go to catch-up with the rest of Division 1-A football, as far as its overall depth is concerned.

I’d also like to briefly explain the meaning of the numbers and terms used in reference to each team.  The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the “alleged” expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

1.  MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (50)- I was really impressed with the Blue Raiders when I saw them in person last year at the New Orleans Bowl.  Dasher may be the most underrated QB in the country, and I think he can finally lead his squad to a victory over Troy and a Sun Belt Championship.  (Postseason Prediction: New Orleans Bowl vs. UTEP)

2.  Troy (63)- The Trojans will be good as usual, but having to replace their talented QB Levi Brown will result in a few losses. (Postseason Prediction: GMAC Bowl vs. Ohio)

3.  UL-Lafayette (97)- Apparently the Ragin’ Cajuns have changed their university name once again and now are simply referred to as the University of Louisiana.  I’m not really sure how they were able to claim that distinction over UL-Monroe, so I will just call them Lafayette for now.  At any rate, this team has been knocking on the door of a bowl game for a while, and I believe they finally breakthrough this season.  Though it is kind of sad that a team ranked 97^th in the nation may get to play in a bowl game.  (Postseason Prediction: Little Caesars Bowl vs. Temple; this is a Big 10 slot that will open up). 

4.  Florida Atlantic (108)- Schnellenberger just hasn’t been able to sustain the success FAU achieved a few years ago.  This program seems to have fallen flat and will continue to be a middle tier Sun Belt team.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

5.  UL-Monroe (111)- The Warhawks not only had their bowl chances ruined by the Ragin’ Cajuns last year, but they also got upstaged in the naming process, as UL-Lafayette now claims the distinction of being the official University of Louisiana.  I believe that Monroe will also lose to Lafayette this year and finish in the middle of the Sun Belt standings.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

6.  Arkansas State (113)- The Red Wolves shocked everyone last year by finishing near the bottom of the conference standings after being a consensus preseason conference title contender.  I actually had them lower than most, as I pegged them to finish third.  This year, I expect them to continue their struggles. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

7.  FIU (115)- QB controversy, brutal schedule and weak defense will present major problems.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

8.  Western Kentucky (117)- I think the Hilltoppers will become a powerhouse sooner than later in this conference.  They have a great deal of fan and institutional support as well as a new coach who runs an up-tempo west coast offense.  I think the improvements will begin this year, as this team manages to get out of the college football basement this season.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

9.  North Texas (119)- I will again retain my motto from last year in regard to the Mean Green: “I’ll believe it when I see it.”  A lot of people were predicting them to surprise last year and finally achieve some success under Todd Dodge.  Well, after a promising start, they again struggled in conference play finishing 1-7.  Now, Phil Steele is calling for them to contend for the conference crown and a bowl game.  I just don’t see it happening, especially without Riley Dodge at QB.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)

Over the next several weeks, I will post my 4^th annual college football preview guide for your enjoyment.  If you have read my blog before, you know that I am an avid college football fan who posts weekly blog entries about my insights and analysis throughout the season.  I also write a weekly picks of the week entry as well as one for upsets to watch out for.  Furthermore, I am the coordinator for the new College Football Researchers Association poll, which was re-started last year after a lengthy hiatus.

 Let me start out by explaining the different entries that will be published for this guide.  First of all, there will be an entry for each conference which gives the predictive ranks for all the teams as well as a brief written analysis for each.  I will also post entries for my predicted surprise teams, predicted disappointment teams, a full ranking of all 120 teams, and predicted bowl matchups.       

 As with all preview guides, the measure of success is both the analysis it provides and the accuracy in which it predicts.  As far as my analysis goes, I will try to keep things succinct by only offering a few sentence description of each team.  You can consider it sort of a Cliff’s Notes of larger, more in-depth previews.  In regard to my accuracy, I can say truthfully that I have been more accurate with my predictions than any of the other eleven major preview publications (Phil Steele, Athlon, Lindy’s, Sporting News, GamePlan, Jim Feist, Street & Smith, Sports Illustrated, ATS Consultants, and Blue Ribbon).  The basis for this bold conclusion is the comparison of my preseason picks with postseason results using a numerical scoring system that was created by Chris Stassen in 1993.  This Stassen Survey as it is called looks at the predicted conference finishing position for each team and then compares that with their actual postseason conference rank.  The difference between those ranks (doesn’t matter if you overrated or underrated a particular team) is then recorded for each team and added together.  For example, I predicted Michigan to finish 9^th last year in the Big 10 and Phil Steele had them at 6.  They ended up finishing 10^th so my score would now be 1 (10 minus 9) and Phil’s would be 4 (10 minus 6).  You then continue this process for all teams.  Phil Steele always brags about the accuracy of his predictions so you will see that I am directly challenging him below by applying the Stassen Survey to both me and Phil’s picks over the last three years.  I broke down the results by conference so you can see who was the winner in each league and by how many points they won.    

2007

2008

 2009

Not only did I beat Phil in 2007 and 2009 but I also beat the # 1 overall guide both of those seasons.  The most accurate publication according to the Stassen Survey in 2007 was Athlon with a score of 135.  I scored a 132.  Likewise, I scored a 131 last year while the top magazine, Sports Illustrated scored a 133.  Now that you understand how the scoring system works, you will realize Phil’s claim to have “the most accurate magazine preseason magazine the last ll years” is somewhat misleading.  What he needs to say is that it is the most accurate “over the past 11 years”.  He isn’t the most accurate every year, but over the course of 11 years he does have the lowest combined score. However, since I began playing this game three years ago, my overall Stassen score is better than Phil’s (by a score of 411 to 423). 

 There is also another system that you can use to compare different sets of preseason predictions.  The way to do that is just to look at each team and see which prognosticator was most accurate.  You then get one point for having the more accurate projection for a particular team.  I also used this system to compare myself with Phil over the past 3 years, and here are the results I came up with:

As you can see, I have once again beaten Phil two out of the last 3 years and beat him by a grand total of 6 picks during that time period.  Based of this analysis, I have no reservations claiming that I am one the most accurate college football prognosticators in the country.  I hope that gives you reason to read this guide as it is published throughout the summer.

Just wanted everyone to get ready for the release of my college football preview guide, which has been the most accurate in the nation 2 of the last 3 years.  Blog entries for it will be posted throughout the next two months starting next week.

I’m not a big NBA fan, but the NBA draft is my favorite of all the professional drafts.  It is also the only one for which I publish my own “mock draft”, as you can see below.  These picks represent a hybrid what I think will happen and what should happen.  For instance, I don’t think John Wall should be the top pick of the draft, but we all he is going to be so I had to put him at # 1.  However, for picks that are far less certain, I tend to evaluate each team’s strengths and weaknesses and then make an educated guess as to who they should take.  Here are my predictions.

Round 1

Round 2

Personal Records:

Total Correct Picks (right person, right team, right #): 11 (2007)

Predicting the Draftees: 90% (2008)

Round 1 and 2 Flip Flops (the lower, the better): 4 (2008)

This is the first time I’ve ever posted comprehensive tennis predictions, but this is also the first Wimbledon I have been able to cover on this blog, as ”Ramblings of the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist” wasn’t created until early August of last year.  And because I value Wimbledon far more than any other tennis grand slam (or golf major for that matter)  then I thought I should post a round-by-round set of predictions for you to look at and/or use when betting on these matches.  Will this be the year that the Brit finally wins Wimbledon, and my life goal # 4 is crossed off the list?  Well, based on the way Murray has played the past few months its doubtful.  Still, the British Curse and all the storylines that arise every year at this event truly make this one of the top 5 greatest sporting events on Earth.  So let’s start things off with some early round picks. 

The parentheses in front of some players names are there seed numbers.  The asterisk in front of some players names denotes that they are either a qualifier or a wildcard entry.  The parentheses after every player’s name indicates their country of origin.  Also, the matches are listed in the order they appear on the bracket.  Furthermore, the term “upsets” is used to describe any pick where I’m predicting the current sportsbook underdog to beat the favorite, and the term “shocks” is used to describe a major upset.

(1) Serena Williams (USA) beats Michelle Larcher De Brito (POR) in 2 sets. (Note: Serena may not lose a game in this one.)

Anna Chakvetadze (RUS) upsets Andrea Petkovic (GER) in 3 sets.

Tamarine Tanasugarn (THA) beats Ayumi Morita (JPN) in 2 sets.

Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) upsets (25) Lucie Safarova (CZE) in 3 sets.

(24) Daniela Hantuchova (SVK) beats Vania King (USA) in 3 sets.

Elena Vesnina (RUS) beats Barbora Zahlavova Strycova (CZE) in 3 sets.

Alize Cornet (FRA) beats Ioana Raluca Olaru (ROU) in 3 sets.

(16) Maria Sharapova (RUS) beats Kateryna Bondarenko (UKR) in 3 sets. (Note: Sharapova’s typical early nerves will cost her the first set against a tough first round opponent.)

(9) Na Li (CHN) beats *Chanelle Scheepers (RSA) in 2 sets.

Mariana Duque Marino (COL) upsets *Kurumi Nara (JPN) in 3 sets.

Anne Keothovang (GBR) upsets Anastasia Rodionova (AUS) in 3 sets. (Note: hometown crowd helps Anne pull off the upset.)

(19) Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) beats Akgul Amanmuradova (UZB) in 2 sets.

(32) Sara Errani (ITA) beats Julie Coin (FRA) in 3 sets. 

Olga Govortsova (BLR) beats Arantxa Parra Santonja (ESP) in 2 sets.

Jill Craybas (USA) upsets Alberta Brianti (ITA) in 3 sets.

(7) Agnieskzka Radwanska (POL) beats Melinda Czink (HUN) in 2 sets.

(3) Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) beats Tathiana Garbin (ITA) in 2 sets.

Arantxa Rus (NED) upsets Kai-Chen Chang (TPE) in 3 sets.

Sybille Bammer (AUT) upsets Roberta Vinci (ITA) in 3 sets.

Iventa Benesova (CZE) shocks (29) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkvoa (RUS) in 2 sets.

(23) Jie Zheng (CHN) beats Pauline Parmentier (FRA) in 2 sets.

Petra Kvitova (CZE) upsets Sorana Cirstea (ROU) in 3 sets.

Casey Dellacqua (AUS) beats Bojana Jovanovski (SRB) in 3 sets.

(14) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) beats *Mirjana Lucic (CRO) in 2 sets.

(10) Flavia Pennetta (ITA) beats Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP) in 3 sets.

Gisela Dulko (ARG) beats *Monica Niculescu (ROU) in 2 sets.

Klara Zakopalova (CZE) beats Yvonne Meusburger (AUT) in 3 sets.

(18) Arvane Rezai (FRA) beats Magdalena Rybarikova (SVK) in 2 sets.

(31) Alexandra Dulgheru (ROU) beats Kimiko Date Krumm (JPN) in 2 sets.

*Heather Watson (GBR) beats *Romina Sarina Oprandi (ITA) in 3 sets. (Note: Note: A dream matchup for both players, as they each face the only opponent in the entire field they have a chance of beating.  Oprandi is the better player, but I’m predicting Watson to use the home court advantage to propel her to victory.) 

Edina Gallovitis (ROU) upsets Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) in 3 sets.

(6) Samantha Stosur (AUS) beats *Kaia Kanepi (ESP) in 2 sets.

(8) Kim Clijsters (BEL) beats Maria Elena Camerin (ITA) in 2 sets.

Karolina Sprem (CRO) beats *Bethanie Mattek-Sands (USA) in 2 sets.

*Shenay Perry (USA) beats *Anastasiya Yakimova (BLR) in 3 sets.

(27) Maria Kirilenko (RUS) beats Stefanie Voegele (SUI) in 2 sets.

(17) Justine Henin (BEL) beats Anastasija Sevastova (LAT) in 2 sets. 

Kristina Barrois (GER) beats Mariya Koryttseva (UKR) in 2 sets.

Patty Schnyder (SUI) beats Yung-Jae Chan (TPE) in 2 sets.

(12) Nadia Petrova (RUS) beats Tatjana Malek (GER) in 2 sets.

(15) Yania Wickmayer (BEL) beats *Alison Riske (USA) in 2 sets.

 Kirsten Flipkens (BEL) beats *Stephanie Dubois (CAN) in 3 sets.

*Noppawan Lertcheewan (THA) upsets *Andrea Hlavackova (CZE) in 3 sets. (Note: This is the only match where I have no idea how to pronounce either player’s name.)

(21) Vera Zvonareva (RUS) beats *Nuria Llagostera Vives (ESP) in 2 sets.

(28) Alona Bondarenko (UKR) beats Katie O’Brien (GBR) in 2 sets.

Lucie Hradecka (CZE) beats Varvara Lepchenko (USA) in 3 sets.

Aleksandra Wozniak (CAN) beats *Eleni Danilidou (GRE) in 3 sets.

(4) Jelena Jankovic (SRB) beats *Laura Robson (GBR) in 2 sets.

Vera Dushevina (RUS) shocks (5) Francesca Schiavone (ITA) in 3 sets. (Note: Even though this would look like a huge upset on paper, Dusevina is actually not that much of a betting underdog, as she currently is listed at +180 on the moneyline.  The reason being is that Schiavone, the French Open Champion, doesn’t played particularly well on grass.  She lost to Dushevina on clay, Schiavone’s favorite surface, last year in their only career meeting.  You throw in the fact that the match is being played on Court 2, the graveyard of champions, then this has all the makings of a huge first round upset.)

Tsvetana Pironkova (BLR) beats Anna Lapushchenkvoa (RUS) in 2 sets.

*Melanie South (GBR) upsets Regina Kulikova (RUS) in 3 sets.

(30) Yaroslava Shvedova (KAZ) beats Polona Hercog in 3 sets.

(22) Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (ESP) beats *Greta Arn (HUN) in 2 sets.

Alicia Molik (AUS) beats Zuzana Kucova (SVK) in 2 sets.

Elena Baltacha (GBR) beats Petra Martic (CRO) in 3 sets.

(11) Marion Bartoli (FRA) beats Julia Goerges (GER) in 3 sets.

Ana Ivanovic (SRB) upsets (13) Shaheer Peer (ISR) in 3 sets.

Sania Mirza (IND) upsets Angelique Kerber (GER) in 3 sets.

Jamila Groth (AUS) beats Renata Voracova (CZE) in 2 sets.

(33) Melanie Oudin (USA) beats Anna-Lena Groenefeld (GER) in 3 sets.

(26) Alisa Kleybanova (RUS) beats Sandra Zahlavova (CZE) in 2 sets.

Sofia Arvidsson (SWE) upsets Alla Kudryavtseva (RUS) in 3 sets.

Agnes Szavay (HUN) upsets Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) in 2 sets.

(2) Venus Williams (USA) beats Rossana De Los Rios (PAR) in 2 sets.

This is the first time I’ve ever posted comprehensive tennis predictions, but this is also the first Wimbledon I have been able to cover on this blog, as ”Ramblings of the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist” wasn’t created until early August of last year.  And because I value Wimbledon far more than any other tennis grand slam (or golf major for that matter)  then I thought I should post a round-by-round set of predictions for you to look at and/or use when betting on these matches.  Will this be the year that the Brit finally wins Wimbledon, and my life goal # 4 is crossed off the list?  Well, based on the way Murray has played the past few months its doubtful.  Still, the British Curse and all the storylines that arise every year at this event truly make this one of the top 5 greatest sporting events on Earth.  So let’s start things off with some early round picks. 

The parentheses in front of some players names are there seed numbers.  The asterisk in front of some players names denotes that they are either a qualifier or a wildcard entry.  The parentheses after every player’s name indicates their country of origin.  Also, the matches are listed in the order they appear on the bracket.  Furthermore, the term “upsets” is used to describe any pick where I’m predicting the current sportsbook underdog to beat the favorite, and the term “shocks” is used to describe a major upset.

 (1) Roger Federer (SUI) beats Alejandro Falla (COL) in 3 sets. (Note: Nice easy start for Fed.  He won’t lose more than 10 games here.)

Nicolas Massu (CHI) beats *Ilja Bozolac (SRB) in 3 sets.

Janko Tipsarevic (SRB) beats Arnaud Clement (FRA) in 5 sets.

(30) Tommy Robredo (ESP) beats Peter Luczak (AUS) in 3 sets.

(22) Feliciano Lopez (ESP) beats Jesse Levine (USA) in 4 sets.

*Carsten Ball upsets *Richard Berankis (LTU) in 3 sets.

Victor Troicki (SRB) beats Igor Kunitsyn (RUS) in 5 sets.

(16) Jurgen Melzer (AUT) beats Dustin Brown (JAM) in 4 sets. (Note: I’d love to see Brown, the colorful Jamaican, become a star on the tour)

(12) Tomas Berdych (CZE) beats Andrey Golubev (KAZ) in 3 sets.

Benjamin Becker (GER) beats *Ryan Sweeting (USA) in 4 sets.

Dmitry Tursunov (RUS) upsets Rainer Schuettler (GER) in 5 sets.

(20) Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) beats Denis Istomin (UZB) in 4 sets.

(31) Victor Hanescu (ROU) beats *Andrey Kuznetsov (RUS) in 3 sets.

 Marcos Daniel (BRA) beats Marsel Ilhan (TUR) in 5 sets.

Igor Andreev (RUS) beats Daniel Brands (GER) in 5 sets.

(7) Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) beats Kevin Anderson (RSA) in 4 sets.

(3) Novak Djokovic (SRB) beats Olivier Rochus (BEL) in 3 sets.

Juan Ignacio Chela (ARB) upsets *Taylor Dent (USA) in 5 sets. (Note: Dent’s game is great for grass but he struggled to win most of his qualifying matches)

*Brendan Evans (USA) beats *Jesse Huta Galung (NED) in 4 sets.

(28) Albert Montanes (ESP) beats Paolo Lorenzi (ITA) in 3 sets.

(21) Gael Monfils (FRA) beats Leonardo Mayer (ARG) in 3 sets.

Karol Beck (SVK) beats *Santiago Ventura (ESP) in 5 sets.

Evgeny Korolev (KAZ) beats Eduardo Schwank (ARG) in 4 sets.

(15) Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) beats Maximo Gonzalez in 3 sets.

(11) Marin Cilic (CRO) beats Florian Mayer (GER) in 3 sets. 

Mardy Fish (USA) beats *Bernard Tomic (AUS) in 3 sets.

Horacio Zeballos (ARG) upsets Yen-Hsun Lu (TPE) in 5 sets.

(17) Ivan Ljubicic (CRO) beats Michal Przysiezny (POL) in 3 sets.

(29) Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) beats Potito Starace (ITA) in 4 sets.

* Teimuraz Gabashvili (RUS) beats *Ramon Delgado (PAR) in 4 sets.

Michael Llodra (FRA) beats * Jesse Witten (USA) in 5 sets. (Note: Witten is on the verge of a breakthrough major but I don’t think he has the game to top Llodra here)

(5) Andy Roddick (USA) beats Rajeev Ram (USA) in 3 sets. (Note: Since when did Ram become an American?)

(8) Fernando Verdasco (ESP) beats Fabio Fognini (ITA) in 3 sets.

Michael Russell (USA) beats Pere Riba-Madrid (ESP) in 5 sets.

Andreas Beck (GER) beats *Jamie Baker (GBR) in 4 sets. (Note: The British crowd will help Baker pull out at least a set)

Kristof Vliegen (BEL) shocks (32) Julien Benneteau (FRA in 5 sets. 

(19)Nicolas Almagro (ESP) beats Andreas Seppi (ITA) in 4 sets.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (ESP) beats *Tobias Kamke (GER) in 3 sets.

Marco Chiundinelli (SUI) upsets Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR) in 5 sets.

(10) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) beats *Robert Kendrick (USA) in 5 sets. (Note: expect a major scare here)

(14) Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP) upsets Xavier Malisse (BEL) in 5 sets. (Note: Malisse is actually favored here over the 14 seed.  Even though Ferrero has had his best results on clay, he has shown he can play well on grass.)

*Rik De Voest (RSA) beats *Julian Riester (GER) in 5 sets.

Oscar Hernandez (ESP) beats *Ivan Dodig (CRO) in 4 sets.

(18) Sam Querrey (USA) beats Sergiy Stakhovsky (UKR) in 3 sets.

(26) Giles Simon (FRA) beats *Guillermo Alcaide (ESP) in 3 sets.

Michael Berrer (GER) upsets Ilya Marchenko (UKR) in 4 sets.

Jarkko Nieminen (FIN) beats *Stefan Koubek (AUT) in 5 sets.

(4) Andy Murray (GBR) beats Jan Hajek (CZE) in 4 sets. (Note: A tight, tentative Murray will drop a set early but will find a way to pull it out as usual).

(6) Robin Soderling (SWE)beats Robby Ginepri (USA) in 4 sets. (Note: I think Robby could have made a run here if he didn’t draw a top 8 seed in the first round.)

Marcel Granollers (ESP) beats Frederico Gil (POR) in 4 sets.

*Go Soeda (JPN) upsets *Martin Fischer (AUT) in 5 sets. (Note: A dream matchup for both players, as they each face the only opponent in the entire field they have a chance of beating.  This pick is based on name only. “Go Soda!”)

(25) Thomas Bellucci (BRA) beats Richard Mello (BRA) in 4 sets. (Note: The battle of the Brazilians will likely be ignored by their fellow countrymen who will all be focused on the World Cup early next week.)

(24) Marco Baghdatis (CYP) beats Lukas Lacko (SVK) in 3 sets. (Note: Baghdatis could be a dark horse to make a deep run here.  After a lengthy slump, he’s finally playing well again, and he’s had great success in Wimbledon in the past: See 2006 quarterfinal run.)

Jeremy Chardy (FRA) beats Daniel Gimeno-Traver (ESP) in 5 sets.

Florent Serra (FRA) upsets Simon Greul (GER) in 4 sets.

(9) David Ferrer (ESP) beats *Nicolas Kiefer (GER) in 3 sets.

(13) Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) beats Dudi Sela (ISR) in 3 sets.

Paul-Henri Mathieu (FRA) upsets Marc Gicquel (FRA) in 5 sets.

Thiemo De Bakker (NED) beats Santiago Giraldo (COL) in 4 sets.

(23) John Isner (USA) beats Nicolas Mahut (FRA) in 3 sets.

(33) Phillipp Petzschner (GER) beats Stephane Robert (FRA) in 4 sets.

Blaz Kavcic (SLO) upsets Lukasz Kubot (POL) in 5 sets.

James Blake (USA) beats Robin Haase (NED) in 4 sets.

(2) Rafael Nadal (ESP) beats *Kei Nishkori (JPN) in 3 sets.