Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

Brad wins 4-2 in the head-to-head team comparison.

Brad wins by 2 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: New Mexico- “I hate to make a preseason prediction that calls for a head coach to get fired, but it’s really a no-brainer here.  Mike Locksley has won two total games in two seasons at New Mexico, and this year he only has two returning starters on offense.  In fact, the Lobos offensive unit will start ten underclassmen and only one senior in 2011.  Losing a bunch of bad offensive players isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but there’s just no way this woefully young squad will produce the results necessary to keep Locksley employed in the program.  I will give it to the guy though, he’s staying optimistic, as he claimed in the offseason that “a bowl berth is a realistic goal.”  I think two wins is a more realistic goal, as they should be able to beat either Sam Houston State or arch rival New Mexico State at home early in the season.  Either win would be Mike Locksley’s first non-conference victory at New Mexico, but after that, I’m calling for the Lobos to then lay an 0-8 goose egg in MWC play.” (postseason note: Sure enough, Locksley was fired as soon as the losses started to pour on, and this squad went on to win only one game in 2011.)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Air Force- “There is a lot to like about this 2011 Air Force squad, which is why I’m picking them to finish in the MWC # 2 spot.  First of all, this team had a lot better season last year then people realize as they were just a few plays away from ending the season 12-1!  They also got a huge win against Georgia Tech in the Independence Bowl which definitely gave them a lot of confidence going into the offseason.  Furthermore, the Falcons return superstar QB Tim Jefferson, as well as seven of their defensive starters.  The real kicker though is the schedule which gives them the opportunity to play an inexperienced TCU squad at home and in just the second week of the season.  They should be able to pick up that victory and start the season 4-0 before making a tough trip to South Bend.  However, besides their road games against Notre Dame and Boise State, I think this squad should run the table and finish the season inside the top 25.” (postseason note: For whatever reason, the Falcons just never got it going in 2011, as they ended up finishing 5th in league play and barely snuck into a bowl game.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

Phil wins 4-0 in the head-to-head team comparison.

Phil wins by 4 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Southern Miss- Despite their consistent success, the Golden Eagles have never played in a conference title game before.  Well, I’m calling for that streak to end this season, as Larry Fedora’s squad has the tools in place to win and win big in 2011.  Austin Davis returns as QB to engineer an experienced unit that returns seven starters.  However, the Golden Eagles’ best weapon this season is without a doubt their schedule which enables them to play fellow eastern division favorite UCF at home and to avoid two of three powerhouses from the C-USA West.  In fact, there is a not a single game on their schedule this year that Southern Miss can’t win.  Now, I don’t think the Eagles are going to run the table or anything, but I do believe they will do enough to get a shot at the conference crown on December 3^rd. (postseason note: Not only did the Eagles make the C-USA title game, but they actually pulled a shocker and won it!)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Marshall- There are some teams that I annually can’t get a very good preseason gauge on and Marshall has become one of them.  I greatly underestimated the Thundering Herd in 2009 but then over-ranked them in 2010.  This cycle may continue in 2011 because I am predicting Marshall to be a little worse than some people expect.  They have to replace 11 offensive starters including their starting quarterback and running back.  They also face a tough schedule both inside and outside of C-USA play.  As a result, I think a second-straight losing seems is assured, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this team failed to win more than a couple of games.  (postseason note: My erroneous evaluation of Marshall continued for the third straight season, as the Herd went on to win a bowl game in 2011.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

I win 2-0 in the head-to-head team comparison.

I win by 2 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Arkansas- The loss of Ryan Mallet is a big one, but Tyler Wilson’s solid play as a backup in 2010 has many Hog fans excited about this squad.  Skill position stars Knile Davis and Greg Childs return as does 11 of the 17 defensive starters.  The Razorbacks’ defense is actually one of the most underrated units in the country, as much like Boise State, so much of the attention is focused on the offense that the defense is often overlooked.  The Hogs actually ranked in the top half of the SEC last year in total defense, but they will need that unit to be even better in 2011 because I don’t think the offense will be quite as good.  The Razorbacks are one of those teams that I see being a little better in some areas, a little worse in others, and as a result ending up in about the same place they did last year.  In fact, they may once again play LSU for the right to go to the Sugar Bowl, just like they did in 2010.  Unfortunately, this year’s Hogs have to travel to Baton Rouge on November 25^th, and I expect the Tigers to come out, get revenge, and prevent Arkansas from reaching its second straight BCS game. (postseason note: Sure enough, the Hogs entered their finale against LSU with a chance to win the division, and just like I said, the Tigers knocked them off.)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Vanderbilt- Usually when a team returns 19 of 22 starters, it’s an indication that they will be much improved in the upcoming season.  That is of course unless you’re Vanderbilt and you play in the SEC where every other team’s newcomers are twice as talented as your returnees.  Still, James Franklin seems to have injected some much needed energy in this program, and senior Larry Smith is one of the best quarterbacks in the country that you’ve never heard of.  I think Vandy will definitely improve on last year’s dismal 2-10 campaign but don’t expect the ‘Dores to approach bowl eligibility in 2011.  (postseason note: I was right that Franklin would inject energy and enthusiasm in the program, but I clearly underestimated just how magical that energy would be.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

Phil wins 4-1 in the head-to-head team comparison.

Phil wins by 4 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis # 1: Stanford- Several preseason publications are calling for the Cardinal to take a step back this season, but I just don’t see it.  I realize that they lose twelve starters and head coach Jim Harbaugh from 2010, but they still have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Andrew Luck.  Also, new coach David Shaw was Harbaugh’s very successful offensive coordinator, so there should be a great deal of continuity in terms of strategies, schemes, and leadership.  Moreover, the schedule will give the Cardinal plenty of time to break-in their new starters as they should be heavily favored in every game they play until their October 29^th clash at Southern Cal.  Finally, keep in mind that Stanford’s only loss last year was against the national runner-up on the road.  This year their game against Oregon will be played in Palo Alto, and I think the Stanford faithful will finally have a raucous home crowd for that matchup.  Expect another BCS bowl trip for Stanford in 2011. (postseason note: In the 68 & 16 College Preview Sportscast, I also called for Stanford to go 11-1 in the regular season with their one loss coming to Oregon.  Thus, I correctly predicted the outcome of the Cardinal’s entire season!)

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis # 2: Southern California- Even though I’m picking the Trojans to win the division, I can’t actually pick them to make the Pac-12 championship game because they are still ineligible for postseason play.  With that being said, this team could still play a major role in shaping the Pac-12 and national championship races thanks to their interdivisional games against both Stanford and Oregon.  Southern Cal returns fourteen total starters including emerging star quarterback Matt Barkley.  I envision another solid 9 or 10 win season for Lane Kiffin’s squad and expect them to shake up the college football world by knocking off either highly-ranked Notre Dame, Oregon, or Stanford. (postseason note: I just had to include two of my top picks for this conference because of how accurate they both were.)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Oregon- It is very rare in college football to see a team lose the national title game and then come back the next season to win it all.  However, that’s exactly what I’m calling the Ducks to do in 2011.  All the pieces are in place for this team to once again run the table through the Pac-12, and finish in the BCS top 2.  They return seven of the eleven starters from their high-powered offense, including dynamic QB/RB duo Darron Thomas and LaMichael James.  Their schedule is also manageable as their only losable games appear to be the neutral site opener against LSU and a Nov. 12 trip to Stanford.  Once the Ducks get to the national title game, I’m actually picking them to play Oklahoma, as the SEC seems to finally lack a dominant team that is capable of running the table.  The Oregon-OU matchup would be a rematch of the epically controversial onside kick game that was played five years in Eugene, and while I think Oklahoma can keep the title game close, the Sooners always finds a way to lose big games.  So there you have it, I’m picking the Oregon Ducks to be this year’s national champion.  I feel confident in this prediction, but I will admit that it is definitely scary making a national championship pick that could very well fall apart in the first week of the season. (postseason note: My worst fears were realized when this pick came to a crashing halt in week 1.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

I win 4-2 in the head-to-head team comparison.

I win by 3 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Kansas- My best disappointment pick in 2010 was probably my prediction that the Kansas Jayhawks would be one of the worst teams in the country.  Everybody assumed that Turner Gill was going to inject some immediate magic into a roster that was the least talented in the league, but I saw right through the hype.  My exact words were, “for some reason, many people are picking the Jayhawks to make a bowl in Turner Gill’s first season in Lawrence.  Meanwhile, I think they only win two games and go winless in conference.”  Well they exceeded my expectations by picking up three wins, but unfortunately, this year’s Jayhawk team won’t be much better.  They will have to break-in a new QB and RB, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing until you consider the fact that both starting quarterback candidates threw more interceptions than touchdowns in 2010.  Another three-win campaign in Lawrence seems about right. (postseason note: I actually slightly overestimated the Jayhawks this season as they ended up winning only two games.)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Kansas State- Bill Snyder is getting old, and I think last season might have been the peak of his second stint at K-State.  The fact of the matter is that him and his staff just can’t recruit like they used to (K-State’s 2011 class ranked last in the Big 12) and you can only rely on diamond in the rough JUCO transfers for so long.  Thus, I’m afraid the Wildcats 2010 trip to the Pinstripe Bowl may be their only bowl invite for several seasons.  I admire Snyder for coming back and trying to resurrect the program that he basically created, but I just don’t think he has the high quality assistants necessary to have success as a head coach at the age of 71.  This year’s Wildcats team will have to rebuild their offense as they lose six starters including their star RB Daniel Thomas.  Defensively, this squad should be improved but that’s not saying much when you ranked 106^th in total defense last year.  In the end, I don’t see any way the Wildcats getting to a second straight bowl game.  (postseason note: I’m not sure I’ve ever underestimated a team more than I did the Wildcats this season.  What an amazing job Bill Snyder did with this squad.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

Phil wins 6-2 in the head-to-head team comparison.

Phil wins by 8 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Rutgers- Yes, you read that correctly!  I am picking the Scarlet Knights who were an abysmal 1-6 last season last season to win this league!  If you are wondering what the heck I am thinking, let me explain my reasoning.  First of all, let’s remember Rutgers has done this before, as Greg Schiano’s bunch shocked the college football world by coming within a few plays of winning the conference in 2006 after being picked to finish in the bottom half of the league.  Secondly, the Scarlet Knights are the only team in the entire conference who currently has a steady coaching situation.  In fact, every Big East team this year except Rutgers and Syracuse will be dealing with a new coach that is in either his first or second year on the job and is still trying to install his own schemes and put his personal stamp on the program.  Moreover, I really like both the talent on this Rutgers team and attitude permeating within this program.  I thought Schiano might be losing his way after last year’s dismal season, but then they landed an incredible recruiting class in the spring that ranked # 1 in the conference.  Now, the mojo seems to flowing again within this program, as they bring back an emerging star quarterback (Chas Dodd), a cast of talented receivers, and all but two other offensive starters from last year.  This is probably the craziest preseason pick I have made in any of my college football preview guides, but sometimes you just got to trust your instincts, roll the dice, and see what happens.  (note: this pick didn’t quite come to fruition, but it was close that it deserves some recognition)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: West Virginia- The Mountaineers always seem to find a way to finish near the top of the Big East, but they are facing some extraordinary circumstances in 2011.  First of all, one wonders what kind of emotional effect the Bill Stewart-Dana Holgorsen feud had on these players and if the ramifications of it will continue to linger throughout the fall.  Secondly, even though Holgorsen’s offense is extremely potent, it can’t be installed overnight, so I envision there will be some difficulties in executing the offense at the start of the year.  The defense also must be replaced in full, as only four starters return from last year’s squad.  Furthermore, the Mountaineers’ schedule is somewhat unkind as they only get three conference home games.  Because of the accumulation of all of these factors, I believe this program will slip a bit and finish with its lowest win total since 2001. (note: this is another team that I was off on but that 68 & 16 guest Tripp absolutely nailed.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

Phil wins 3-2 in the head-to-head team comparison.

We tied using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Ohio State- I admit that I have a major timing advantage over most preseason publications, who published their picks prior to departures of Jim Tressell and Terrelle Pryor.  However, it just goes to show that the early bird doesn’t always get the worm.  I hate to upset my many OSU-loving friends but this program is an absolute mess right now, and despite Luke Fickle’s best efforts to energize the fan base, this Ohio State squad may struggle to make a bowl game.  The offseason turmoil has had a deep emotional effect on the players, coaches, and fans, as Jim Tressel was one of the most popular head coaches around.  The Buckeyes also face major personnel issues having to break-in a new QB, who has no business starting on a preseason top 25 team, and replace seven key defensive starters.  The schedule also doesn’t do them any favors as the Buckeyes play Michigan State and Nebraska from the Legends Division and have to travel to Coral Gables for a non-conference game that I have dubbed “The Corruption Bowl”.  OSU will be a national powerhouse in a few years, but it will take a couple of difficult seasons to get there.

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Illinois- I must admit that the Illini are a team I have had a horrible read on the past few seasons.  In 2009, I picked them as one of my top surprise teams in the country, and they ended up finishing a dismal 3-9.  In 2010, I predicted them to finish in the conference cellar, and they wound up winning a bowl game in runaway fashion.  Both seasons I got burnt by trying to pick the Illini either higher or lower than most experts.  Well, apparently I didn’t learn my lesson because I’m once again making a non-conventional Illinois pick in 2011.  Most people have them finishing either third or fourth in the Leaders Division, but I’m going to pick them to be the division runner-up to Wisconsin for a couple of reasons.  First of all, dual-threat star Nathan Scheelhasse was sensational as a freshman and should be even better this season, as he plays with additional confidence and a more veteran offense.  Let’s also not forget what Ron Zook did the last time he had a stud sophomore quarterback.  That was in 2009 when Juice Williams and company led the Illini to their first Rose Bowl in decades.  This year’s Illinois squad also benefits from the best schedule in this division, as they get to play the teams I ranked 4-6 in the Legends Division. I’m just hoping Illinois to fall flat on its face and make me look stupid one more time.  (note: I must say that my last line there was pretty prophetic.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

Phil and I tied 3-3 in the Sportsentiment survey system.

I finished 2 points ahead of Phil using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Boston College- I picked the Eagles to challenge the Noles for the division last year and they ended up being the only team in the Atlantic besides Wake Forest not to come close to winning it.  Well I am not going to make that mistake again as I’m picking the Eagles to finish near the bottom of this league and fall short of bowl eligibility.  The Eagles have a dynamic QB/RB combo in Chase Rettig and Motel Harris, but aside from those two this team only returns ten total other starters.  In addition, their schedule is beyond brutal, as they have to play Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and Miami on the road.  In fact, the Eagles may be an underdog in their last seven games, even if they start the season 5-0!  This squad seems to overachieve and sneak into a bowl game every year, but I just don’t see it in 2011.

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Virginia- I really wanted to pick the Cavaliers to be a surprise team in the ACC this year, but I just couldn’t do it because of their schedule.  Even though they return 15 starters and have recruited well under Mike London, they have a brutal conference slate that has me calling for them to lose all three of their interdivisional games (at FSU, at Maryland, NC State).  I also don’t see them being able to compete with Virginia Tech or Miami, especially since they have to travel to Coral Gables.  Therefore, even if the Cavs were able to split games between UNC and Georgia Tech and beat Duke, then they’ll only have two wins in conference play. (note: I wasn’t the only “expert” to underestimate the Cavs this season, but  congratulations to 68 & 16 Guest Tripp for his superb prediction that UVA would be one of the top teams in the ACC this year.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  There are many categories/systems that can be used to compare the accuracy of a prognosticator’s picks, and there are three such methods which I implore.  The first, and most important in my opinion,  is by looking at each team and seeing which expert came closest to correctly predicting that team’s ranking in the final conference standings.  The second method I employ is the Stassen Survey, which has been popularized by fellow preseason prognosticator Phil Steele.  This second system looks at the predicted conference finishing position for each team and then compares that with their actual postseason conference rank.  The difference between those ranks is then recorded for each team and added together.  For example, in 2009, I predicted Michigan to finish 9^th last year in the Big 10 and Phil Steele had them at 6.  They ended up finishing 10^th so my score would now be 1 (10 minus 9) and Phil’s would be 4 (10 minus 6).  You then continue this process for all teams.  In addition, I also compare my preseason rankings of the top 120 teams in the country, and those of the experts, with a final top 120 ranking.

Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010. (see full history here)   This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which I will rehash shortly.  Before I explain that though, let me go ahead and give you a breakdown of my performance against the experts in all of the statistical categories mentioned above.

Preseason ranking of all 120 teams: In the preseason, I ranked all teams 1-120 and also took an average of the full 1-120 preseason rankings from several different preseason publications.  The experts’ average picks more accurately predicted the final postseason outcome of 62 teams.  I was more accurate in my analysis of 54 teams and there were four ties between us.  Believe it or not, I actually tied the experts in total ranking variations for each team.  If you add up the disparity between my preseason rankings and the final rankings, as well as those from the experts, you will find that we both scored exactly 2,484 points.  It’s unbelievable that such a complex calculation could produce a tied result.  We also tied in the number of teams we predicted exactly right.  The experts correctly picked Purdue to finish 85th in the country, and I correctly pegged New Mexico to finish at # 119.  (Note: I used Pre Snap Read’s Final Top 120 Ranking as the final poll used to compare my preseason and postseason predictions).  In the past, I have used the “CBS 120″ for this purpose, but this season CBS moved to a computer ranking system which does not accurately reflect the general consensus of where each team finished.)

The Sport Sentiment Survey (My scoring system): Using my desired scoring system, where one looks at each team to determine which expert came closest to correctly predicting that team’s final conference ranking, Phil Steele beat me in 3 out of the 4 main categories.  He more closely picked the finishing position of more BCS teams (18-14) and also more total Division 1-A teams (31-28).  Further, he also more accurately predicted the final standings of the BCS conferences than I did by a 3-2 margin.  I was more accurate in my predictions of the SEC and Big 12 but he beat me in the Big 10, Big East, and Pac-12.  We tied with our ACC predictions.).  In regard to total conferences, we tied at five with me being more accurate with my preseason predictions for the Big 12, SEC, MWC, MAC, and Sun Belt and him being better with the Big 10, Big East, Pac-12, C-USA, and WAC (as mentioned previously we tied in the ACC.).  See chart below for full results.

Stassen Survey: This is Phil Steele’s suggested scoring system which is described in detail above.  Phil beat me using this scoring system as well.  See chart below for conference-by–conference breakdown.

Bowl Games: Phil beat me here again.  I correctly predicted 7 bowl slots and 0 total bowls, while Phil got 9 bowl slots and 1 full bowl.  While normally such an across-the-board loss to Phil Steele would make me quite disappointed with my preseason picks, it must be stated that Phil had a really good year handicapping college football.  I am sure Phil bested almost all preseason publications, in addition to mine, this season.

Surprise Picks: Two of my predicted surprise teams (Rutgers and Georgia) ended up surprising whereas the other six did not.  I also ended up with a negative number in the sliding scale analysis I use that takes into account the confidence/significance intervals I provide for each surprise team. (See surprise picks entry for more information about that)

Disappointment Picks: If you are looking for a bright spot in my preseason predictions, this is it.  A whopping five of my predicted disappointment teams ended up falling short of their preseason expectations.  I also ended up with a positive number in the sliding scale analysis I use that takes into account the confidence/significance intervals I provide for each disappointment team. (See disappointment picks entry for more information about that)

So after taking all this into account, I must conclude that I overall performed a little below average with my preseason predictions.  With that being said, I still hit the jackpot on a couple of key matters.  First of all, I correctly predicted Notre Dame to underachieve (why do experts keep overrating these guys every single season!  Notre Dame is the one team in the country that I have evaluated more accurately than the experts in each of the past five seasons!).  I also correctly picked Georgia to win the SEC East when the whole world picked South Carolina to take it (including arch rival Andrew Hogan).  Furthermore, my miracle “Rutgers to the BCS” pick almost came true, as the Scarlet Knights fell short of the Big East crown by a single game!

I will now methodically rehash my preseason’s rankings, as well as the experts’, to show you our brilliance as well as our stupidity.

It is now official!  All the votes have been tallied and the Alabama Crimson Tide have been crowned champions of the College Football Researchers Association Poll for the 2011 season.  Interestingly enough, the Tide only received one more first place vote than runner-up Oklahoma State and did not even receive a majority of the total first-place votes cast.  Nevertheless, when all was said and done they finished seven points ahead of the Cowboys in the final poll.  This title is a historic one for the Tide as they now have a total of ten CFRA national championships.  They join Yale and Princeton as the only three universities in the country to win double-digit CFRA championships.  Here is the full top 25:

1.  Alabama (7)- 388 points

2.  Oklahoma State (6)- 381 points

3.  LSU (3)- 372 points

4.  Oregon- 342 points

5.  Stanford- 319 points

6.  Boise State- 317 points

7.  Arkansas- 311 points

8.  South Carolina- 263 points

9.  Wisconsin- 259 points

10.  Michigan State- 231 points

11.  Baylor- 217 points

12.  Houston- 203 points

13.  Michigan- 202 points

14.  TCU- 185 points

15.  Southern California- 163 points

16.  Kansas State- 154 points

17.  Oklahoma- 153 points

18.  West Virginia- 135 points

19.  Virginia Tech- 128 points

20.  Georgia- 105 points

21.  Southern Miss- 91 points

22.  Florida State- 53 points

23.  Nebraska- 45 points

24.  Clemson- 36 points

25.  Cincinnati- 32 points

Others Receiving Votes: Northern Illinois 31, Auburn 21, Texas 16, Missouri 14, Brigham Young 8, Texas A & M 6, NC State 6, Virginia 3, Rutgers 3, Penn State 3, Clemson 2, Utah 2

Dropped Out: Penn State 23

Teams Ranked Higher in CFRA than AP and Coaches: Oklahoma State (2), Stanford (5), Wisconsin (9), Baylor (11), Houston (12), Florida State (22), Nebraska (23).

Teams Ranked Lower in CFRA than AP and Coaches:  LSU (3), Arkansas (7), Michigan (13), Oklahoma (17), Southern Miss (21), Clemson (24), Brigham Young (NR).

Teams Ranked Exactly the Same in All 3 Major Human Polls (AP, CFRA, and Coaches):  Alabama (1), Oregon (4).

In honor of tonight’s SEC-only national title game, I have allowed a guest columnist to post his final top 25 ballot, with explanations, on this blog.  He is an official top 25 voter, and based on a lot of what I have seen and read, his voting patterns and viewpoints are in line with a great many of other pollsters in the AP, Coaches, and Harris polls.  Hope you enjoy.

Hey y’all!  My name is Billy Bob Brad and I love the SEC!!!  I was born and raised in east Arkansas.  My papa is from south Mississippi.  My mama is from west Alabama.  I attended the East Arkansas Agricultural Community College to get my advanced degree in huntin’ safety.  When I am not huntin’ or fishin’, I like to watch football and even though we don’t yet got cable in these parts, my antenna picks up CBS and the 12:00 SEC Game of the Week, which is of course the only two games any fan needs to watch.  I watch them two games every single Saturday, and thanks to the kindness and connections of some of my buddies I am an official voter in the AP, Coaches, and Harris Polls.  I became an AP pollster thanks to my fishin’ pals Rece Davis and Craig James.  Both of those fine Southern Gentlemen work for ESPN, the official network of both the SEC and the BCS.  I love just sittin’ around with Rece and Craig talkin’ about how great Rece’s alma mater Alabama is and how Craig wishes that one of the SEC schools had paid him enough in the early 80’s so that he could have played in our conference instead of having to go to SMU. I also have a vote in dat Coaches Poll thanks to my huntin’ buddies Nick Saban and Dan Mullen.  My Aunt Dolly hooked Dan up with a discount on cow bells so good ol’ Dan lets me fill out his top 25 ballot each week.  As mentioned earlier, I am also a Harris Poll voter, but it don’t take no skill to get one of them ballots.  Heck, becomin’ a Harris Voter is easier than gettin’ a huntin’ license in most states.

Anyway, since my antenna aint pick up no bowl games, I traveled all the way to Little Rock to find a sports bar where I could watch all eight bowl games.  Can you believe we got 8 bowl games now?  Games rangin’ all the way from Nashville to N’awlins.  Unbelievable!  Without further ado, here is my 2011 final top 25 ballot.  It is the exact same ballot Craig and Rece are planning to submit, so it must be exactly right.

1.  LSU – What a great day today is!  Tonight we will all lay witness to the greatest national championship game ever.  Two SEC teams meeting in the promised land.  Never thought I’d see the day.  And how can you not get excited about seeing two NFL-level defenses play against two high school offenses.  What could be more glorious!  Of course even though this will be the greatest football game ever played, it really shouldn’t count.  LSU already won the SEC Championship and because the SEC title is more important than the national title, I’m going to vote the Tigers # 1 regardless of what happens on Monday.

2.  Bama- See explanation above.

3.  Arkansas- Craig James taught me this trick.  On the BCS Selection Show, he always talked about how if your only losses are to teams ranked # 1 and 2 then you automatically get to be ranked # 3.  Using that logic, I wish my Uncle’s alma mater Memphis would have scheduled all SEC teams this year.  That way even though they only won two games they could still be ranked in the top 15.  Because if your only losses are to teams ranked # 1-12, then the worst you can do is be # 13 right?

4.  South Carolina- The Gamecocks only losses came to last year’s SEC/national champ and the team I just ranked at # 3.  Pretty darn good.

5.  Georgia- I can’t believe that I’m ranking the SEC East Champs all the way down at # 5 but because they lost to the team ranked # 4, this is where they got to end up.  Great season for the Dawgs though.  They won 7 out of 9 of their SEC games.  Unbelievable!  I don’t really remember how they did in their non-conference schedule but I’m sure they won all of those games.   Oh wait nevermind… I guess they did lose two games against non-SEC teams.  Still, I reckon I can’t rank no SEC East champ any lower than 5th in the country.  That would be a sin which I’d need to see my preacher about.

6.  Auburn- Last year’s national champs had a solid season.  They started the year with a dominating victory over Utah State and cruised from there.

7.  Florida- You got to give credit to the Gator defense in 2011.  They held every team they played under 30 points except three: Alabama, LSU, and hold up while I look up the third… it was  Furman.  Oh yeah them.

8.  Mississippi State- The Bulldogs quality regular season wins speak for themselves: Memphis, Louisiana Tech, UAB, Kentucky, UT-Martin, and Ole Miss.  That’s wins over five different southern states for gosh sakes.

9.  Vanderbilt- Now we start getting to those teams with losing records.  Hey a losing record in the SEC is much better than a 12-1 mark from any other conference!

10.  Kentucky- The Cats beat Tennessee this year, and the Vols won the SEC Championship just a little bit over a decade ago.

11.  Tennessee- Can’t believe I am rankin’ a former BCS national champion from the SEC outside my top 10?   I’m really becomin’….what’s the word I’m looking for… open-minded about this whole pollin’ stuff.

12.  Ole Miss- They got ten losses but eight of those ten came to teams ranked in the top 10 of my poll.  Can’t fault them for that.  Sure they didn’t get an SEC win this year, but it’s not like anybody from outside the Southeastern Conference could actually win an SEC game either.

13.  Missouri- They’re not in the SEC yet, which is why they can’t be in the top 12, but they’re joinin’ our club next year so I can’t rank them no lower than this.

14.  Texas A & M- Same reasonin’ as above.

15.  The Other USC- Obviously, there is a big drop off after the top 14 teams in the country, and this is where it gets really hard for me and all the other SEC Supremacist voters because we never watch any other teams play.  I’m not really sure how good the Trojans were this year because they didn’t play any SEC teams.  However, they are on probation for cheatin’ like all of the schools from our conference are, so I got to take my hats off to them there.

16.  Oklahoma State- The Cowboys might have a claim for the top 15, but I have to make sure they don’t rain on tonight’s SEC Championship Parade and get a split national title.  That’s why I’m not rankin’ them no higher than 16.

17.  Stanford- Glad none of my SEC schools have these kind of high academic requirements.

18.  Oregon- I almost got in a bar fight in Little Rock on New Year’s over this team.  Some out-of-towner was trying to tell me that I couldn’t say that Boise State’s win over Georgia was a season-opening fluke while at the same time claiming LSU’s season-opening win over Oregon proves the SEC’s elite status.  I told him that we were the SEC and that we use whatever wins we want to use and we forget about any losses we want to dismiss as flukes.

19.  Michigan State- Obviously their win over Georgia in their bowl game was a fluke.

20.  Cincinnati- Obviously their win over Vanderbilt in their bowl game was a fluke.

21.  Louisiana Tech- I’m runnin’ out of teams to include in my final poll here, so for spots 21-23 I’m just going to randomly choose other teams from the former Confederate State of America who somehow managed to beat an SEC team this season.

22.  Louisville- See comment above.

23.  Clemson- See comment above.

24.  Baylor- The Bears would be ranked higher if their quarterback hadn’t stolen the Heisman from the rightful winner, Trent Richardson.

25. Boise State-  I HATE THE BRONCOS!!!  ABSOLUTELY HATE THEM!  What a bunch of frauds.  Thinkin’ they deserve to play in the national title ever year just because they win all their games by a whole bunch of points.  Well I tell you they would get destroyed if they had to play a real SEC team like Alabama, LSU, or Georgia… oh wait well I guess they did beat Georgia.  I didn’t get to watch that first game because it wasn’t on CBS, but I assume the Dawgs must have been starting a different quarterback or somethin’.  No way they would have lost to Boise if they were playin’ hard.  Anyway, only reason I’m puttin’ the Broncos on here is because apparently there is good fishin’ in Idaho.  Same reason my buddy Craig James is nice enough to rank them at # 23 or 24 every week.

Well please let me know what you think of my rankin’s.  Hopefully Brad will let me post my preseason rankin’s on his blog soon.  I’ll have those ready sometime after my huntin’ trip next week.  Those rankin’s are big because I refuse to change my poll much once the season starts.  No need to make my preseason predictions look bad.  Also, since I got this moment in the sun, I also want to give a shout out to all my other college football buddies: Jared Martin, Jay Williams, Drew Senter, Rob Matthews and especially Andrew Hogan.

For the third year in a row, I am publishing an account of my top 10 best and worst sports moments of the past year.  (Click here for the 2010 and 2009 editions)  Keep in mind that these are given from a purely subjective viewpoint.  When I say “best/worst moments” I’m not talking about great or horrible sporting events.  I’m talking about moments that affected me the most positively or negatively.

Best Moments:

1.  Kentucky finally beats Tennessee in football (November 26, 2011)- The HIGHLIGHT OF MY 2011 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON came in Lexington, KY in late November when Kentucky finally ended their record-setting 26 game losing streak to Tennessee.  I was literally three weeks in my mother’s womb the last time Kentucky beat the Vols, and I really thought that I may live my entire life as a Kentucky fan and never once be alive for a Wildcat victory over Tennessee.  As many of you know, my four life goals as a sports fan are to see:  (1) A 16 seed beat a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, (2) Wake Forest win a football or basketball national championship, (3) a horse win the Triple Crown, and (4) a British tennis player win Wimbledon.  Well, a couple of years ago I started an auxiliary list of secondary goals which included things like seeing: (1) a non-AQ team win an undisputed football national championship, (2) a senior PGA tour player win a golf major, and (3) Kentucky beat Tennessee in football.  These secondary milestones aren’t quite as important as the big four, but they are still things that would be the icing on the cake to a great life as a sports fan.  Well one of those items can officially be checked off the list as the Wildcats beat the Volunteers in an ugly 10-7 slugfest.

2.  Wake Forest plays in the Music City Bowl (December 30, 2011)- I am writing this column prior to this bowl game, but even if Wake does lose to Mississippi State, this moment still ranks near the top of this list.  This is the one bowl game with an ACC tie-in that I have always wanted Wake Forest to play in, and I am absolutely elated that they got a bid into it this season.  I will be the first to admit that Virginia Tech had no business getting a BCS at-large bid, but I am so glad they did because otherwise the Deacs would be stuck in Shreveport for the holidays.

3.  Greensboro Grasshoppers win South Atlantic League Championship (September 17, 2011) – Got to give a plug to my local minor league team who won their first league title since 1982 this season.  Just like the St. Louis Cardinals, the Hoppers were a strike away from losing the championship series before coming back to win it all in the deciding game.  To even get to the league playoffs, the Hoppers had to win 11 out of their last 12 regular season games.  It was purely stuff of legend.

4.  South Carolina wins second-straight NCAA Baseball National Championship (June 28, 2011)- I must admit that the first championship is always the best and most memorable, but this one ranks right up there given the dramatic way this Gamecock team won most of its tourney games.

5.  Boise State beats Georgia in College Football Season Opener (September 3, 2011)- Two of my top three favorite college teams (Kentucky and South Carolina) play in the SEC, but I hate the SEC hype just as much as anyone.  That’s why I am so glad that the Broncos went down south and shut up all the SEC Supremacists with their dominant road win over Georgia.  After this game, the immediate response we heard from BCS Elitists is how Georgia really wasn’t a very good SEC team.  Well that argument clearly fell through after the Dawgs won the Eastern Division and led # 1 ranked LSU at halftime of the SEC Championship Game a couple of weekends ago.

6.  Dallas Mavericks beat Miami Heat in NBA Finals (June 12, 2011)- The Mavs have always been one of my top 4 or 5 favorite teams in the NBA thanks to their charismatic owner Mark Cuban.  Thus, it was great to see them finally win a championship, but it was even better to see them do it against the evil Lebron James and his Miami Heat.

7.  Morehead State upsets Louisville in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament (March 17, 2011)-  I live for the first round NCAA Tournament upset, but this one was particularly satisfying in that it involved a mid-major from Kentucky beating one of my most hated sports rivals.

8.  South Carolina beats Clemson (November 26, 2011)- The Gamecocks have now won an unprecedented three straight over their in-state rival.  I have to admit that it kind of sucks the Tigers got into a BCS Bowl, but at least it’s the worst BCS bowl of all-time (see my bowl rankings below).

9.  Jimmer Fredette gets drafted by Sacramento Kings (June 23, 2011)- The Jimmer gradually became one of my favorite athletes in the world throughout last year’s college basketball season.  I was planning to adopt whichever organization drafted him as my new favorite NBA team, as long as it was a squad who met all of my underdog criteria (never won a championship, small-market, not many fans, etc).  My dreams came true when the Sacramento Kings, the ultimate NBA dark horse, selected Jimmer with the 10^th overall pick in this year’s draft.  Now I just have to decide whether I want to shell out the big bucks and order NBA League Pass to see him play all season.

10.  Mike Leach gets hired as Washington State Head Coach (November 30, 2011)- After a two year hiatus, my favorite coach in sports has a job again and this time it’s in Pullman, WA.  I think this is a great fit all around, and I’ll have no problem switching my Pac-12 allegiances from Arizona State to Wazzu.

Worst Moments:

1.  Nightmare Saturday (November 12, 2011)- Last year, the worst day of the season for me was the Friday after Thanksgiving when Auburn came back to beat Alabama, Oregon stomped Arizona, and Boise State lost a heartbreaker to Nevada.  This year on the second Saturday in November I sat through an even more disheartening day of college football.  It all began at noon when my beloved Wake Forest Demon Deacons lost a heartbreaker to Clemson to fall just short of an improbable ACC Atlantic title.  After that, I had to watch as Georgia ended South Carolina’s hopes of winning a second straight SEC East title.  Then the lowlight of the day took place as Boise State lost its chance at a national title with a gut-wrenching loss to TCU.  It was utterly demoralizing to realize that the Broncos weren’t going to get a shot at the national title, but I decided that I would just have to cheer for Stanford to get there instead.  After all, they are the ultimate antithesis of the SEC and all the corruption and stupidity it represents.  Well, four hours later Oregon dashed the Cardinal’s national title hopes and left me and my entire life in complete disarray.  One of my friends texted me after the Boise game and said simply, “Not your day man.”  That’s a pretty good summation of November 12th, as I can’t even fathom what a worse 24 hours of sports would look like.

2.  Auburn and Scam Newton win BCS National Title (January 10, 2011)- Despite my desperate prayers for Newton and Auburn to fall short of the national title, it wasn’t meant to be.  An Auburn team that should have lost 3-5 games last season squeaked out a tight one over Oregon to win the crystal trophy.  Their title game victory was particularly cheap because the Tigers won it on a fluke play. On the game’s final drive, the Oregon defense stopped playing after Auburn’s Michael Dyer appeared to be tackled following a short gain.  In fact, Dyer’s knee never hit the ground, so he was able to get up and bolt into Oregon territory to set up the game winning field goal.

3.  UConn knocks off Butler in NCAA Basketball National Championship Game (April 4, 2011)- I loved and cherished every minute of both of Butler’s magical runs to the national title game.  Nevertheless, it was utterly demoralizing to see the Bulldogs fall just short of the ultimate prize for a second straight season.  This year’s run was even more astonishing than the 2010 edition because the Bulldogs entered the tourney as an eight seed.  After five impressive and victories, Butler became just the second eight seed ever to advance to the national championship game.  The first was of course Villanova who shot over 80% en route to their shocking title game victory over Georgetown in 1985.  The Bulldogs, however, managed to shoot a mere 18.8% in their 12-point loss to UConn.  If only Butler had access to that cocaine Nova’s players were snorting prior to their ’85 title game…

4.  Rafael Nadal beats Andy Murray in Wimbledon Semifinals (July 1, 2011)- Another year without a Brit taking home the Wimbledon title.  This loss was even more upsetting than Murray’s past semifinal defeats because he actually looked in control of the match for the first set and a half.

5.  Rematch Announced for BCS National Championship Game (December 4, 2011)- Oklahoma State’s huge victory over Oklahoma gave me and other college sports’ fans a final glimmer of hope that we might be able to avoid the horrifying scenario of having a rematch of a 9-6 regular season game decide college football’s mythical national champion.  The BCS Elitists and SEC Supremacists wouldn’t allow it however, and in the end we got stuck with the biggest joke of a title game anyone could ever imagine.  Here are just a couple of stats for you to consider as you prepare for this abomination of a title game: (1) if Alabama wins the national championship, they will have the worst non-conference wins of any national champion in any college sport ever!  (2) This is also the first time there has been a national title game between two offenses who rank in the bottom half of FBS in passing.

6.  Joe Paterno Gets Fired as Penn State Head Coach (November 9, 2011)- The whole Penn State sex scandal was so sad on so many levels.  I have always been a big Paterno fan and still believe he should have been given a chance to finish the season as head coach.  Nevertheless, Joe Pa’s epic 46-year tenure as Penn State head coach came to an end when he was fired just a game after passing Eddie Robinson as the winningest coach in this history of Division 1 Football.

7.  Boston Bruins win Stanley Cup (June 15, 2011)- Not another championship for Boston!  I really wanted to see Vancouver get its first-ever championship as well.  Can’t believe Canada still hasn’t won a Stanley Cup since 1993.

8.  Texas Rangers choke away World Series (October 27-28, 2011)- It’s unfathomable that a team could come a strike away from clinching the World Series on two different occasions in Game Six and then go on to lose the series in 7.  The Rangers aren’t my favorite team or anything, but I love most any squad who has never won a championship before.

9.  U.S. Women’s Soccer Team loses World Cup Final to Japan (July 17, 2011)- The Women’s World Cup team took us on quite a ride this summer, but they couldn’t close the deal against Japan.  This loss was particularly heartbreaking given that the U.S. held a second half lead on two occasions before eventually falling in penalty kicks.

10.  Dustin Johnson loses British Open (July 17, 2011)- This choke job pales in comparison to the other golf heartbreaks I’ve experienced in recent years, especially in the British Open.  Still, I really thought this could be the major that Dustin Johnson would finally breakthrough and win.  And yes you read that correctly… my worst moments # 9 and 10 both occurred on the exact same day.  It’s pretty amazing I passed the bar exam considering such a horrible day took place just nine days before the test.

Here’s to a wonderful 2012 full of a great sports moments for everybody!

Every season I publish a ranking of the most intriguing/interesting bowl games so that you have an idea about which games to tune into.  It’s really a hit or miss bowl season this year, as some games are much more watchable than others.  If I had to give the 2011 bowl season a title it would be “The Return of the New Year’s Magic”, as you will see that all six of the New Year’s Day Bowls are featured near the top of these rankings.  The irony of that theme however is that none of those games are actually being played on New Year’s Day this season since New Year’s 2012 falls on an NFL Sunday.  Nevertheless, January 2^nd is clearly the pinnacle of the bowl calendar.  The two best BCS bowl games, and I would argue the only two watchable ones, are being played on that day as well as four of my top five non-BCS games.

It is also worth mentioning that while other sportswriters and websites do similar lists this one is unique in that it doesn’t feature the typical bias towards BCS conference teams and games.  You will see that many of the smaller bowls are ranked ahead of the traditionally prestigious ones because they will be better games and/or possess more compelling storylines.  Keep in mind that these rankings are based on my opinion alone, so there is some subjectivity involved. Without further ado, here is my complete ranking of the 2011 bowl games.  Feel free to comment and debate.

Tier 1: Must-See Bowl Games:

1.  Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford (January 2^nd)- This Fiesta was a dud last year (Oklahoma vs. UConn), but this season it represents the more compelling and entertaining alternative to the national title game.  The winner of this game will become my national champion if Alabama were to knock off LSU in the Mythical National Title Game.

2.  Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin (January 2^nd)- I ranked this game # 1 last year because it featured the Horned Frogs of TCU who I ended up selecting as my national champion.  This year’s game lacks national title ramifications but is still an intriguing matchup between teams with two high-powered offenses.

3.  Music City Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest (December 30^th)- I just have to put the one bowl game I will be attending in my top 3.  This is the bowl game I have always wanted Wake Forest to play in, and I am absolutely elated that they got a bid into it this season.  I will be the first to admit that Virginia Tech had no business getting a BCS at-large bid, but I am so glad they did because otherwise the Deacs would be stuck in Shreveport for the holidays.

4.  Capital One Bowl: Nebraska vs. South Carolina (January 2^nd)- This in my opinion is the most entertaining of the Big Ten vs. SEC bowl games, as both teams feature stout defenses, good running games, and dual threat quarterbacks.  The Gamecocks haven’t played well in a single bowl game under Steve Spurrier.  Will this be the season South Carolina finally shows up and gets a legitimate bowl victory?  The Cocks definitely have a ton to play for, as no Gamecock squad has ever won eleven games before.

5.  Gator Bowl: Ohio State vs. Florida (January 2^nd)- The Buckeyes had to vacate their Sugar Bowl victory from last season, so their epic losing streak against the SEC is still in play.  The last time Ohio State beat an SEC foe was September 24, 1988 with a tight home victory over a medicore LSU squad.  Other than that victory, OSU has not beaten an SEC school since 1935!!!  AND THE BUCKEYES HAVE NEVER IN THEIR 120-YEAR HISTORY BEATEN AN SEC SCHOOL AWAY FROM HOME.  They are in fact 0-11 in such games despite being favored or ranked higher in the past 5 of them.  Here is a complete list of their non-home losses to SEC schools: Alabama- 1977, Alabama- 1986, LSU- 1987, Auburn- 1989, Georgia- 1992, Alabama- 1994, Tennessee- 1999, South Carolina- 2000/2001, Florida- 2006, and LSU- 2007.  Think about this for a second: one of the greatest programs in college football history has never won a non-home game against a team from the greatest conference in college football.  That fact alone should give you plenty of reason to watch this game.

6.  Ticketcity Bowl: Houston vs. Penn State (January 2^nd)- You got to give the Ticketcity Bowl administrators credit, despite being way down on the pecking order this bowl has been able to create an intriguing New Year’s matchup both years of its existence. Houston and Penn State are two teams who probably deserve to be in better bowl games, but nevertheless, they will each take their talents to Dallas in a classic matchup of contrasting styles.  Who knows what will happen in this game.

7.  Outback Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan State (January 2^nd)- You can’t go wrong with a matchup between the SEC and Big 10 runners-up.  Both squads also come in with a whole lot to prove.  Georgia has yet to demonstrate they can beat an elite football team this season, and Michigan State would love to avenge last year’s woodshed loss to Alabama in this exact same bowl game.

8.  Cotton Bowl: Kansas State vs. Arkansas (January 6^th)- Once again the Cotton Bowl ends up being one of the best non-BCS bowls in the country.  Arkansas is a heavy favorite here, but I expect this game to be much closer than experts are predicting (see my “upsets to watch out for” column below)

9.  Champs Sports Bowl: Florida State vs. Notre Dame (December 29^th)- Here are two tradition-rich, preseason top 10 teams in a battle to see who is the biggest bust of this college football season.

10.  Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Texas A & M vs. Northwestern (December 31^st)- A horrible name to a game that should produce the biggest upset of this bowl season.  I think we’ll see the Wildcats end their epic 62-year bowl victory drought in this one.

11.  Armed Forced Bowl: Brigham Young vs. Tulsa (December 30^th)- This bowl really hit the jackpot by getting two really good top 35 teams that feature high-octane offenses.

12.  Holiday Bowl: Texas vs. California (December 28^th)- Both of these teams had extremely up and down seasons, and as a result, this bowl might be one of the most unpredictable of the entire year.

Tier 2: Watchable Bowl Games (Real college football fans should tune in, others maybe not):

13.  Maaco Las Vegas Bowl- Arizona State vs. Boise State (December 22^nd)- Might not be a close game, but you should tune into see Quarterback Kellen Moore and Coach Dennis Erickson end their legendary football careers.

14.  Godaddy.com Bowl- Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois (January 8^th)- Here’s a bowl game between two conference champions, which is more than you can say about three of the BCS Bowls this year (including the mythical national title game).

15.  Poinsettia Bowl: TCU vs. Louisiana Tech (December 21^st)- See Goddady.com comment above.

16.  New Mexico Bowl: Temple vs. Wyoming (December 17^th)- On paper this bowl season opener doesn’t look like much, but there’s just something that kind of intrigues about this matchup between two polar opposite programs.  It’s private school vs. public school.  Big City vs. Middle of Nowhere.  East Coast vs. Rocky Mountains.  Rushing offense vs. Balanced attack. This is also only Temple’s second bowl game since 1979.

17.  Alamo Bowl: Baylor vs. Washington (December 29^th)- I expect Baylor to run away with this one, but if you haven’t seen this year’s Heisman trophy winner in action yet, then this game is a must see.

18.  Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt (December 31^st)- You don’t get the opportunity to see Vandy play in the postseason very often.  This is also a great QB matchup between Zach Collaros and Jordan Rodgers.  Nevertheless, I am somewhat saddened that we don’t get the classic SEC vs. mid-major matchup we usually have in this bowl.

19.  Sugar Bowl: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech (January 3^rd)- You clearly see that there are there is huge drop-off between the two New Year’s BCS Bowls and the three post-New Year’s BCS Bowls.  This game represents everything that is wrong with the BCS, as it features two at-large teams who were selected solely because of their large fanbases and big-name prowess.

20.  Chick-fil-a Bowl: Virginia vs. Auburn (December 31^st)- This is one of the worst Chick-fil-a Bowl’s you’ll ever see.  It features a matchup between the sixth best SEC team and an overachieving ACC squad who barely beat Idaho and Indiana.

21.  Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. Southern Miss (December 24^th)- There’s not a whole lot to like about this year’s Christmas Eve bowl game .  You’ve got a coach-less Conference USA squad playing a third place WAC team.

22.  Belk Bowl: Louisville vs. NC State (December 27^th)- This is the one and only time where you can make the case that the participants in the Belk Bowl are superior to those in the Orange Bowl.  That’s because the Wolfpack woodshedded Clemson less than a month ago and Louisville tied West Virginia for the Big East title while also beating the Mountaineers head-to-head.  Unfortunately, that says a lot more about how bad the Orange Bowl is than about how good the Belk Bowl will be.

23.  Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Iowa State (December 30^th)- Sadly, the Scarlet Knights fell a game short of the improbable Big East Championship I predicted them to claim.  Nevertheless, they have to like the fact they get to play a virtual home postseason game against a squad who knocked of the # 3 ranked team in the country.  Note: this game automatically jumps up 10 spots in these rankings if it ends up being played in the snow.

24.  Insight Bowl: Iowa vs. Oklahoma (December 30^th)- This bowl has clearly put itself in a “lose-lose” situation.  If the game is close or Iowa wins, then it will be viewed as bowl that Oklahoma didn’t show up for.  If Oklahoma wins in a blowout, then everyone will stop watching by halftime.

Tier 3: Barely Watchable Bowl Games (aka Clunkers):

25.  Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Utah (Dec. 31^st)- This is the only bowl game pitting a team from the Pac-12 against a squad from the eastern United States.  I’ve always wanted more bowls pitting ACC and SEC squads against Pac-12 foes, but this is the only one.  That begs the question as to why there has to be three SEC vs. Big Ten bowl matchups but there are zero SEC vs. Pac-12 bowls?  Aside from the whole east vs. west theme, this matchup doesn’t have much going for it, as both teams finished their seasons on a sour note.  

26.  Independence Bowl: Missouri vs. North Carolina (December 26^th)- The Independence Bowl has to like the fact that they didn’t get stuck with Wake Forest playing a mediocre Mountain West squad like it was slated to.  Still, this game definitely lacks some major luster to say the least.  Both squads had rather disappointing seasons, and North Carolina is in the midst of a coaching change.

27.  Military Bowl: Toledo vs. Air Force (December 28^th)- I think we’ll see an upset in this one, as I am predicting the Falcons to knock off the Rockets.  Unfortunately, I can’t give you a good reason to tune in unless you just like to watch upsets like I do.

28.  New Orleans Bowl: San Diego State vs. UL-Lafayette (December 17^th)- It’s hard to get too excited about a middle of the pack Mountain West squad playing a middle of the pack Sun Belt foe.  It’s kind of cool this is UL-Lafayette’s first-ever bowl game though and that the Ragin’ Cajuns were predicted to finish last in their conference by several preseason publications.

29.  BBVA Compass Bowl: SMU vs. Pittsburgh (January 7^th)- Bad bowl name + Bad Bowl teams + Bad Bowl location = Bad  Bowl Game.

30.  Little Caesars Bowl: Western Michigan vs. Purdue (December 27^th)- Bowl administrators have to at least be happy that there were enough bowl eligible Big Ten teams for them to have one here this season and they can avoid the dreaded MAC vs. Sun Belt matchup they’ve had to set up in years past.  However, that still doesn’t change the fact that neither of these squads are very good and that 4:30 on a Tuesday afternoon is not an ideal game time.

31.  Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs. Utah State (December 17^th)- The Bobcats have never won a bowl game and the Aggies haven’t won one since the inaugural Las Vegas Bowl in 1993.  Somebody’s going to win here, but I don’t think anyone will care one way or the other.

32.  Orange Bowl (aka Belk Bowl Light): West Virginia vs. Clemson (January 4^th)- There are two reasons why this is probably the worst BCS game of all-time: (1) The Belk Bowl actually features better ACC and Big East teams than this one.  NC State woodshedded Clemson less than a month ago and Louisville tied West Virginia for the Big East title while also beating the Mountaineers head-to-head.  (2) This is the only BCS game that ever has and hopefully ever will be played between two teams ranked outside of the BCS Top 14.  That’s right, neither of these teams is even eligible for a BCS at-large berth, yet they are playing each other in the Orange Bowl.

33.  Beef O’Brady’s Bowl: FIU vs. Marshall (December 20^th)- One can make a solid argument that these are probably the two worst bowl teams in the entire county.  You would think that such a distinction would make this the worst bowl game in all of the land, but extenuating circumstances have made two other games even worse than this one.

34.  Kraft Disappointment Bowl: Illinois vs. UCLA (December 31^st)- All that needs to be said about this game is what every college columnist has pointed out since this matchup was announced.  This is a matchup between the first team ever to start the season with six straight wins and then follow it with six straight losses and the first team ever to play in a bowl game with a losing record.  Unbelievable!

35.  Mythical National Title Game: LSU vs. Alabama (January 9^th)- What could possibly be worse than a bowl game between two teams from the same conference playing a rematch of a 9-6 regular season snoozer?  It’s a good thing that most all bowls are just exhibition games that don’t matter.  Could imagine if a matchup this silly actually determined the national champion of college football????  Oh wait…

These upset picks below will determine whether or not I accomplish my unbelievable quest to finish above .500 on the season in my weekly upset picks.  I came into the last week of the regular season with a remarkable 32-31 record but a disappointing 1-4 mark has put me at 33-35 entering bowl season.  Nevertheless, I will have plenty of chances to get back over .500, as I have eight upsets to offer here including my double-digit longshot.  I am actually predicting that a total of eight underdogs will win their bowl games straight up, but three of those picks are underdogs of less than three points (Nebraska, UCLA and NIU) and will not be featured on this list in accordance with the rules I set out at the beginning of the season.

You always see around 10-12 upsets every bowl season, and there are several reasons why bowl upsets are so common.  First of all, the underdog often comes into these games with a lot more motivation to win than the favorite, especially if the favorite was expecting to be in a better bowl (see Oklahoma, Texas A & M, and Mississippi State).  Also, teams typically have about a month off between the end of the regular season and their bowl game, so there is plenty of time for a hot team to lose its momentum and for a struggling team to re-group.  Throw in other factors like coaching changes and player suspensions and it’s no wonder bowl season is always unpredictable and upset-filled.  Just as a reminder, the “Upset Special” classification is used to denote the upset that I believe is most likely to occur each week (similar to my lock of the week in my weekly picks column).  The lines below are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.

Upset Special of the Bowl Season:  Air Force (+3.0) vs. Toledo (Military Bowl)- See my analysis for this game in my picks of the week entry below.

Cal (+3.0) vs. Texas (Holiday Bowl)- Texas is probably the more talented team, but I got to go with the team who was playing much better at the end of the regular season.  Cal ended the year winning three out of their final four games with the lone loss coming by just three points to the 4^th ranked team in the country on the road. Meanwhile, the Longhorns finished the season at the other end of the spectrum losing three out of their last four.

Ohio (+3.0) vs. Utah State (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)- I realize that Ohio is 0-5 all-time in bowl games, but I’ll take the MAC runner-up (and almost champion) over the WAC runner-up any day.  I think this bowl season will really show people just how bad the Western Athletic Conference is right now.  Utah State finished the season with just one win over a bowl team (Wyoming) and two losses against non-bowl teams (Fresno State, Colorado State).

Michigan State (+3.5) vs. Georgia (Outback Bowl)- See my analysis for this game in my picks of the week entry below.

Wake Forest (+6.5) vs. Mississippi State (Music City Bowl)- I realize this is kind of a homer pick  since I am a Wake Forest alum who will be attending this game on December 30^th in Nashville.  Nevertheless, Wake Forest is a really good bowl team, as they have won their last five non-BCS bowls dating back to 1979.  Meanwhile, Mississippi State is the classic disappointment team who expected to do bigger and better things this season.  As a result, I am not sure they show up in Nashville ready to play this game.

Wyoming (+7.0) vs. Temple (New Mexico Bowl)- The Cowboys shocked the college football world by upsetting Fresno State in this exact same bowl game two years ago, and I think you’ll see history repeat itself this season.  The Cowboys will have a lot more fans in Albuquerque, and they should be a lot more motivated to play this game, as Temple has to be disappointed about choking away the MAC East and failing to reach a better bowl game.

Kansas State (+8.0) vs. Arkansas (Cotton Bowl)- This would be a shocker, but K-State comes into the Cotton Bowl with a lot to prove after getting shafted by the BCS.  I think the Wildcats ball control offense will frustrate the Hogs and be able keep Tyler Wilson and company off the field.  Also, keep in mind that Arkansas looked horrible outside of Fayetteville all season long.

Double-Digit Longshot of the Bowl Season: Northwestern (+10.0) vs. Texas A & M (Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl)- See my analysis for this game in my picks of the week entry below.