Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist

I finished the year with a 74-66 record, so obviously I did enough to solidify myself as a solid college football prognosticator.  Nevertheless, I have ten more picks to offer for you for bowl season.  All of the spreads below are from the World Sports Exchange’s opening lines and are ordered based on my personal confidence in each.

Pick  # 1 (Lock of the Bowl Season): Michigan (-2.0) vs. Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl)- The ACC is 2-11 in BCS Bowls, and VT got blown out twice by the only athletic team they played this season in Clemson.  Denard Robinson and Michigan will win this one by at least a touchdown.

Pick # 2: Auburn (-1.0) vs. Virginia (Chick-fil-a Bowl)- The suspension of Michael Dyer worries me a little bit, but Onterio McCalebb and Tre Mason should be able to fill his void and have success running the football.  The Cavs just aren’t a great football team, and I don’t think they’re good enough to match wits with a physical SEC opponent like Auburn.

Pick # 3: Iowa (+14.0) vs. Oklahoma (Insight Bowl)- This is the ultimate “no show” bowl game.  Oklahoma has absolutely no reason to show up for this bowl game, and as a result, I don’t think they will.  Meanwhile, Iowa has to love the opportunity to knock off the formerly # 1 ranked team in the country in a postseason game.

Pick # 4: Vanderbilt (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati (Liberty Bowl)- The Commodores also don’t play in bowl games very often so you know they’re going to be pumped for this one.  I’ll take a middle of the road SEC team over a middle of the road Big East team any day of the week.

Pick # 5: Air Force (+3.0) vs. Toledo (Military Bowl)- The Falcons triple-option attack will be like nothing the Rockets see in MAC.  Toledo’s defense already cost them a MAC Championship by giving up 63 to Northern Illinois at home on November 1st, and I think that same unit will cost them a bowl victory on December 28th against Air Force.

Pick # 6: Northwestern (+10.0) vs. Texas A & M (Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas)- The Kentucky Wildcats ended their epic 27 game losing streak to Tennessee this season, so is it finally time for the Northwestern Wildcats to end their epic bowl losing streak as well?  The Cats last postseason victory came in the Rose Bowl in 1949 and what better time to break through than against a Texas A & M team who is in the midst of one of the nation’s most disappointing seasons, has dropped four out of their last five games, is led by an interim coach, and worst of all possesses little to no motivation to play this game.

Pick # 7: NC State (-2.5) vs. Louisville (Belk Bowl)- This is the one and only time where you can make the case that the participants in the Belk Bowl are superior to those in the Orange Bowl.  That’s because the Wolfpack woodshedded Clemson less than a month ago and Louisville tied West Virginia for the Big East title while also beating the Mountaineers head-to-head.  The Wolfpack finished the season on a tear by winning three out of their last four and will be playing this game in front of a hostile home crowd in Charlotte.  Expect NC State to pull away by the second half.

Pick # 8: TCU (-10.5) vs. Louisiana Tech (Poinsettia Bowl)- The Sun Belt is traditionally the conference who enters bowl season with everyone wondering if their bowl bound squads can compete with bowl teams from other Division 1-A leagues.  This season the WAC has taken over that role, as two of the conference’s three bowl teams enter the postseason as heavy underdogs.  The WAC was just so down this year that I can’t take any of these squads, including LA Tech seriously.  TCU doesn’t have a lot to play for in the game, but Patterson will be looking to build for the future and his Horned Frogs squad is just too good not to win this game by at least a couple of touchdowns.

Pick # 9: Michigan State (+3.5) vs. Georgia (Outback Bowl)- It seems like most college football analysts and prognosticators underestimate the Big Ten in both the Outback and Capital One Bowls every single year.  They just assume the SEC and its speed will dominate these bowls, but the Big 10 always manages to win around 40-45% of these games.  I think this is another one of those situations where prognosticators are overvaluing the SEC in this matchup.  Michigan State has better wins than Georgia this year, as Sparty knocked off two BCS squads (Wisconsin, Michigan) while the Dawgs’ best win was against a mediocre Auburn team. Sparty also comes in here with a lot to prove after getting demolished in this same bowl by Alabama last season.  I honestly think when push comes to shove Michigan State is the better team which more to play for which is why I am picking them to pull off the upset in this one.

Pick # 10: Oklahoma State (-3.5) vs. Stanford (Fiesta Bowl)- You have to worry about what the frame of mind of the Cowboys after getting screwed out of their national title shot.  Nevertheless, OSU is just a better football team than Stanford and should come in pumped about playing in their first-ever BCS game.  This will be a high-scoring shootout that Oklahoma State will end up winning by at least a touchdown.

Week 14 Record: 6-4, Overall Record: 74-66

For the tenth straight season, I have created a mock college football playoff bracket based my proposed college football playoff system.  I know that playoff proposals come a dime a dozen, but I’d like to think mine is more comprehensive than most, as I include almost every possible detail include things like game times and television schedules.  I’d really like Bill Hancock to take a look at this thing and try to find a flaw in it.  Anyone that would like to see this playoff in an excel bracket format then just let me know, and I’ll send you a copy.

The Field: Clemson (ACC  Champ), West Virginia (Big East Champ), Wisconsin (Big 10 Champ), Oklahoma State (Big 12 Champ), Oregon (Pac-10 Champ), LSU (SEC Champ), TCU (MWC Champ), Louisiana Tech (WAC Champ), Southern Miss (C-USA Champ), Northern Illinois (MAC Champ), Arkansas State (Sun Belt Champ), Alabama (at-large, # 2 in BTS standings), Stanford (at-large, # 4 in BTS standings), Arkansas (at-large, # 6 in BTS standings), Boise State (at-large, # 7 in BTS standings), Kansas State (at-large, # 8 in BTS standings).

South Regional

(1) LSU vs. (4) Louisiana Tech, Friday December 16th- 8:00 (ESPN), Nashville, TN

(2) Kansas State vs. (3) Wisconsin, Saturday December 17th- 8:00 (ABC), St. Petersburg, FL

Winners play Saturday December 24th at 3:30 in Atlanta, GA (ESPN)

West Regional

(1) Stanford vs. (4) West Virginia, Saturday December 17th- 8:00 (ESPN), San Diego, CA

(2) Arkansas vs. (3) Southern Miss, Saturday December 17th – 3:30 (ESPN), Tempe, AZ

Winners play Saturday December 24th at 3:30 in Phoenix, AZ (ABC)

East Regional

(1) Alabama vs. (4) Northern Illinois, Saturday December 17th- 12:00 (ABC), Charlotte, NC

(2) Boise State vs. (3) Clemson, Saturday December 17th- 3:30 (ABC), Detroit, MI

Winners play Saturday December 24th at 12:00 in Orlando, FL (ABC)

Midwest  Regional

(1) Oklahoma State vs. (4) Arkansas State, Saturday December 17th- 12:00 (ESPN), Dallas, TX

(2) Oregon vs. (3) TCU, Thursday December 15th- 8:00 (ESPN), El Paso, TX

Winners play Saturday December 24th at 8:00 in Arlington, TX (ABC)

Final Four/Championship

South Champ vs. West Champ, Saturday December 31st- 3:30 (ABC), Miami, FL

East Champ vs. Midwest Champ, Saturday December 31st- 8:00 (ABC), Pasadena, CA

Championship Game, Saturday Jan 7th- 8:00 (ABC), New Orleans, LA

Basic Format:

• 16 teams (11 conference championships and 5 at-larges chosen by the top 5 in the BTS Standings, which is the functional equivalent to the BCS.  My rationale is for this is that it’s something computer/poll-related to keep the pro-BCS folks happy like “Adolph” Bill Hancock.)
• 4 regions (teams seeded 1-4 based on committee)
• Bowl sites will become tourney sites.  See further explanation below.
• Selection Sunday will be held the day after conference championship day and the first game will be played two weeks after that.  This gives teams time to rest after the regular season and for the players to complete their exams, which is always a gripe from the anti-playoff crowd.
• A couple of special stipulations are that two teams from the same conference can’t play in the same region, and each conference is limited to three total playoff teams.

Scheduling:

• I’ve even drafted a mock game schedule that takes into consideration both the interests of the viewers and  television providers.  I’m going to assume that ABC/ESPN buy the rights to playoff coverage, since they have already purchased future BCS coverage rights.  The ABC/ESPN splits will be conducted just like they are now with ABC providing everybody’s regional games, and ESPN showing the games outside the area.
• Week 1 (First Round):  Game 1: Thursday 8:00- second best game of the week (ESPN);  Game 2: Friday 8:00- worst game of the week (ESPN); Games 3 and 4: Saturday 12:00- two non-west region games (ABC/ESPN split); Games 5 and 6: Saturday 3:30- two games of any type (ABC/ESPN split); Games 7 and 8: Saturday 8:00- game of the week is on ABC; ESPN has other game.
• Week 2 (Elite 8): Game 1: Saturday 12:00- Third biggest game of the week but can’t be midwest/west regional final (ABC); Game 2: Saturday 3:30- Worst game of the week (ESPN); Game 3: Saturday 3:30- Second biggest game of the week (ABC); Game 4: Saturday 8:00- Featured game of the week (ABC).
• Week 3 (Final Four): Game 1: Saturday 3:30- Second biggest game of the week (ABC); Game 2: Saturday 8:00- Featured game of the week (ABC).
• Week 4 (Championship Game): Saturday 8:00 (ABC)

Bowl Sites:

• Lower-tier bowl sites will become first round sites on a rotational basis.   
• 2011: East- Charlotte, Detroit; South- Nashville, St. Petersburg; Midwest- El Paso, Dallas; West: Tempe, San Diego.  2012: East Regional- Mobile, Washington D.C.; South Regional- Memphis, Tampa; Midwest Regional- San Antonio, Houston; West Regional: Albuquerque, Las Vegas. 2013: East- Birmingham, New York; South- Shreveport, Jacksonville; Midwest- Fort Worth, Boise; West- San Francisco, Boise.
•  The current semi-major bowl sites of Arlington (Cotton), San Diego (Holiday), Phoenix (Fiesta), and Atlanta (Chick-Fil-A) will be annual elite 8 sites.
• The Final Four/Championship games will be held in Pasadena, New Orleans, and Miami.  The championship game will rotate between the 3 sites, and the two final four games will be played in the non-championship cities.
• Other notes: (1) New bowl sites coming into existence must replace old ones.  (2) The first-round sites that are off of the playoff rotation will still hold bowl games.  More explanation on that to follow.  (3) I do realize that the Fiesta Bowl and the city of Phoenix are going to feel they got screwed here, as they are being demoted from a current BCS site to an elite 8 playoff site.  They’ll just have to get over it because the Fiesta has without a doubt less tradition and prestige associated with it than the rest of the BCS bowls.

Remaining Bowl Games:

• This is time where things get tricky, as I try to accommodate the rest of the bowl eligible teams who do not make the 16-team playoff.
• There will be 16 bowl games held at all the first-round sites who are off of the playoff rotation.
• The names of the bowls can either change depending on which bowl is being played each year, or a bowl game can be played every year at different sites.  It doesn’t really make a difference to me.
• The tie-ins for the bowls will try to replicate those for the current bowl games with the obvious omission of all tie-ins of conference champions.  Also, the number of bowl teams from each conference may fluctuate depending on how many teams it sends to the playoff in a particular season.
• Overall, in this system there will be 48 1-A postseason teams (16 in playoff, 32 in bowls), which is much more reasonable than the current number of 70.  Honestly, by taking out some of the garbage teams who currently squeak into bowl games, I think this system will actually make the bowl games more meaningful and watchable.

The college football postseason begins in 11 days, so get ready for many exciting match ups that do not usually happen during the regular season (with 1 obvious exception).  Justin and I discuss our thoughts on all the bowls, as we go through our bowl game rankings and debate the various aspects of each.

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Good Thoughts:

1.  The Battle for the Final BCS At-Large Berth- Because of Houston’s loss to Southern Miss, this year’s BCS at-large picture has become particularly interesting.  Typically we know well before the final BCS standings as to whether or not a non-AQ team will qualify for a BCS bowl by finishing in the top 12 or 16 (depending on the situation) of the final standings.  However, TCU has become the first-ever non-AQ BCS bubble team this year, as they will have to wait until tomorrow night to find out whether or not they finished in the top 16 and garnered a third consecutive BCS berth.  If the Horned Frogs don’t qualify, then Kansas State will likely snag the remaining at-large berth.  The other three BCS at larges will almost certainly be given to Stanford, Michigan, and Alabama.

2.  My Weekly Picks- For the third consecutive year, I have posted a winning record for my weekly college football picks.  This year’s mark was 74-66, which is up from last year’s 71-69 record but not quite as good as the 78-62 mark I posted in 2009.

3.  Heisman Trophy Race- Believe it or not, the only undefeated team in the country doesn’t have a viable Heisman Trophy candidate this season, so this year’s Heisman race is as wide open as ever.  As a result, there will actually be some suspense when they go to announce the winner next Saturday in New York.

Bad Thoughts:

1.  Just Say No to Rematches- I said it on my Facebook profile, and I will say it here, “if you watched the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game and you still support a title game rematch, then you really need to figure out what happened to your common sense”.  (Either that or you’re a prejudice-filled bigot who hates everyone who doesn’t play in the SEC).  My 68 & 16 college Justin said it best when he texted me the following message during OK St’s woodshed victory over Oklahoma: “If this isn’t enough to get them in, then all of college football should just disband.  If you aren’t in the SEC, then why play?”  That is definitely a valid question when you consider the facts at issue here.  Alabama and Oklahoma State have the same number of losses but Oklahoma State has a better strength of schedule, more wins over bowl teams, more top 25 victories, and an edge in about any other stat you can think of except the one Alabama has created for itself, “quality losses”.  Yes, losing to LSU isn’t as bad as losing to Iowa State, but isn’t it sad when the only argument you can make for playing in the national title game is to talk about how good your losses are.  Alabama didn’t beat anybody and they didn’t win a conference or even division championship like Oklahoma State did, but somehow scoring six points in a home loss qualifies the Tide for a title shot.  Also keep in mind that the Cowboys’ lone loss came on the road (not at home like Bama’s) and the game took place less than 24 hours after a devastating school tragedy.  We all just need to hope and pray now that the BCS Bigotry that has scarred this nation over the last decade and a half doesn’t rear its ugly head again tomorrow night.

2.  The Bottom of the Barrel- Now that I’m done ranting and raving about who the best teams in the country are it’s time to turn our attention to the complete opposite end of the spectrum.  FAU managed to avoid a winless season last week by knocking off UAB, but they still posted a winless conference record thanks to their loss to UL-Monroe on Saturday.  Four other teams join this in this dubious distinction as Kansas, Indiana, Akron, and Ole Miss also failed to win a game during their conference schedule.  Akron is the only team in the country not to get a win over an FBS opponent this year, so one can make a fairly strong argument that they are college football’s worst Division 1-A football team for the 2011 season.

3.  Bowl Choke Series (Part 2)- This will go down as the year of the BCS Choke Jobs where we had so many squads choke away their shots at the national title and/or a BCS at-large berths that we had to have two teams from the same conference play again in the national title game.  I wrote about several of these choke jobs (Southern Miss, Arizona State, Boise State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State) two weeks ago in this exact same column, and now there is a new team that can be added the list… the Houston Cougars.  All the Cougars needed to do was beat Southern Miss, a squad they were favored to beat by 13.5 points, at home and they would get a trip to a BCS Bowl and earn their conference $14 million of BCS revenue.  Unfortunately, Houston let themselves, their fans and the entire Conference USA down by getting blown out by the Golden Eagles.  You have to love the postgame interview though with Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora.  Interviewer: “you cost the conference $14 million today, you know right”   Fedora: “well I shouldn’t because we deserve to be in the BCS.”

Well Fedora, if your team hadn’t lost to UAB two weekends ago, then they would be!  Keep in mind that the 3-9 Blazers followed up their shocking win over the Eagles by losing to FAU the following week.  UAB has to be the only team in football history to spoil a team’s BCS hopes and then follow it up by losing to the worst team in the country the very next weekend.

I had somewhat of an off-week picking upsets in week 13, as only one upset  that I offered came to fruition.  I still have an over .500 record (32-31) in such picks however so chances are some of the picks below will hit.  Just as a reminder, the “Upset Special” classification is used to denote the upset that I believe is most likely to occur each week (similar to my lock of the week in my weekly picks column).  The lines below are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.

Oklahoma (+3.5) at Oklahoma State- The way Oklahoma has dominated this series you got to give the Sooners a great chance to win on Saturday.

Clemson (+7.0) vs. Virginia Tech- See my analysis for this game in my picks of the week entry below.

Hawaii (+7.5) vs. Brigham Young- The Rainbow Warriors have a lot more to play for, as a win sends them into a bowl game while a loss keeps them home for the holidays.  BYU already has its bowl destination figured out, so I’m not sure they will show up in Honolulu with the same motivation.

FAU (+7.5) vs. UL-Monroe (Upset Special of the Week)- See my analysis for this game in my picks of the week entry below.

Michigan State (+9.5) vs. Wisconsin- See my analysis for this game in my picks of the week entry below.

Double-digit Longshot of the Week: Syracuse (+10.0) at Pittsburgh- Anything can happen in the Big East… especially during the final weekend of the regular season.

Sorry for the delay in getting these out, but I have been dealing with computer problems all week.  All of the spreads below are from the World Sports Exchange’s current lines and are ordered based on my personal confidence in each.

Pick # 1 (Lock of the Week): San Diego State (-8.0) vs. Fresno State- The Bulldogs are really, really bad, especially on the road.

Pick # 2: West Virginia (-2.0) at USF- If Louisville can go down to Tampa with the conference title on the line and pick up a victory like they did last weekend, then I certainly think West Virginia can do the exact same thing under the exact same circumstances.  Without B.J. Daniels at quarterback, USF’s offense is anemic.

Pick # 3: Baylor (-2.5) vs. Texas- This line seems about right if Robert Griffin wasn’t playing, but reports are that he’s going to start on Saturday, which makes this spread way too low.

Pick # 4: FAU (+7.5) vs. UL-Monroe- Here are two teams who have had horrible season, but the Owls have a lot more to play for in this one.  FAU picked up its first win of the season last week against UAB and would love to carry the momentum over to Saturday and send legendary coach Howard Schnelleberger out with a victory.  Meanwhile, UL-Monroe just wants this season to end as soon as possible.

Pick # 5: North Texas (-5.5) vs. Middle Tennessee State- At the beginning of the year if you told me that the Mean Green would be a 5.5 point favorite over the Blue Raiders I would have said you were crazy.  However, North Texas has exceeded expectations this season while MTSU has struggled mightily.   In fact, Middle Tennessee hasn’t stayed within 13 points of anybody they’ve played since mid-October, and North Texas has won three of its last four at home. I like the Mean Green to take this one by at least double-digits.

Pick # 6: Wyoming (-5.5) at Colorado State- There is simply too much disparity between these two teams for me to think that this game will be decided by less than a touchdown.  Wyoming has destroyed the other Mountain West bottom feeders (20+ point victories over UNLV and New Mexico), and I think they’ll do the same on Saturday against the Rams.

Pick # 7: New Mexico State (+14.0) vs. Utah State- I have gotten burned by New Mexico State all year when they’ve played at home, as I have consistently bet against them in their beautiful desert resort stadium.  Well, I have learned the error of my ways and am going to call for them to give the Utah State a legitimate road scare this weekend.  Keep in mind that NMSU is 2-1 at home in WAC play this season.

Pick # 8: Idaho (+20.0) at Nevada- Last year this line would have made sense, but the Wolf Pack haven’t beaten a single WAC foe by more than 14 points all season.

Pick # 9: Clemson (+7.0) vs. Virginia Tech- It’s funny how we have two conference title rematch games this weekend, and in both games the spread is the exact same as it was during the regular season meeting.  Virginia Tech was a 7 point favorite at home against Clemson in week 5, and Wisconsin was a 9.5 point favorite against Michigan State in week 8.  However, in both of those games the underdog won straight up, so it’s seems odd that both winners are once again predicted to lose by at least a touchdown.  I understand it’s difficult to beat a team twice in the same season, but you can’t convince me that a winner of an earlier meeting should be a touchdown or more underdog in a neutral site rematch.

Pick # 10: Michigan State (+9.5) vs. Wisconsin- See my explanation for the Clemson/VT game above.

Last Week’s Record: 4-6, Overall Season Record: 68-62

College football championship Saturday is a few days away and this  may be the most anticlimactic finish to any season in recent memory.  Luckily, the coaching carousel is in full motion. We discuss Urban,  Leach, and the coaching vacancies around the country. Finally, we talk  early college basketball, some NFL (can Green Bay go undefeated) and  look forward to the NBA season beginning.

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Every year since 1998, I have sat down on either the Saturday or Sunday after Thanksgiving and drafted a set of bowl projections for the upcoming college football postseason.  Unlike those analysts who make bowl projections on a weekly basis throughout the season I prefer to put all my efforts towards one set of thoroughly scrutinized picks.  I try to do a decent amount of research before making these predictions, and then as the actual pairings are announced, I analyze the accuracy of my picks in three different ways.  I calculate the percentage of teams I correctly predicted to go bowling, the percentage of slots predicted correctly (ex: having the right SEC team in the Outback Bowl), and the percentage of total bowls correctly predicted (ex: having the correct matchup in the Outback Bowl).  My best marks in each category are: 100% of teams correctly predicted (2006), 57.4% of slots correctly predicted (2008), and 36% of bowl correctly predicted (2000).

I obviously had to work off a few assumptions/predictions about next week’s games in order to make these.  First of all, I’m predicting Oregon, LSU, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Houston, and Virginia Tech to win their games next weekend.  All of those games will shape the BCS picture, so if one or more of these team loses, then were will obviously be some modifications to the BCS bowls as well as some smaller bowls.  Furthermore, I am assuming that the only current bowl bubble team, Pittsburgh (see entry below for complete list), will win next week to advance to a bowl game.    Please scroll down below the picks to see additional commentary about specific bowl matchups as well as a discussion of which bowl eligible team will get snubbed from a bowl game.

Notes:

1.  Right now I am predicting there to be 71 bowl eligible teams vying for 70 bowl slots.  However, there is still a possibility that there will not be enough teams to fill all the slots.  That’s because I could very well see teams like Arizona State and Illinois decline bowl invitations since they will have just fired their head coaches.  Nevertheless, if one team does end up getting snubbed out of a bowl, like I am currently projecting, then I am predicting it to be Western Kentucky.  I feel like Ball State and WKU are the two least attractive bowl teams, and because the New Orleans bowl already has a Sun Belt tie-in, they will need to take Ball State, instead of the Western Kentucky, to fill their second slot.

2.  Replacement picks are italicized.

3.  Maaco Bowl- I am predicting that the great Mountain West  TCU/Utah rivalry will be renewed.

4.  Little Caesars Bowl- This would be a great chance for Northwestern to get their first bowl win since the 1949 Rose Bowl.

5.  Outback Bowl- My dad’s two favorite teams meet.

Good Thoughts:

1.  Bad Teams Pulling Off Monumental Wins- Two teams who have had horrible 2011 seasons picked up monumental victories this weekend.  First of all, Florida Atlantic appeared to be on its way to ending legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger’s career with a winless season.  Nevertheless, the Owls broke through this weekend and knocked off fellow FBS bottom-dweller UAB in a 38-35 thriller.  It was also Florida Atlantic’s first victory in their brand-new FAU Stadium.

However, the big whopper, and the HIGHLIGHT OF THE 2011 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON FOR ME, came in Lexington, KY where Kentucky finally ended their record-setting 26 game losing streak to Tennessee.  I was literally three weeks in my mother’s womb the last time Kentucky beat the Vols, and I really thought that I may live my entire life as a Kentucky fan and never once be alive for a Wildcat victory over Tennessee.  As many of you know, my four life goals as a sports fan are to see:  (1) A 16 seed beat a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, (2) Wake Forest win a football or basketball national championship, (3) a horse win the Triple Crown, and (4) a British tennis player win Wimbledon.  Well, a couple of years ago I started an auxiliary list of secondary goals which included things like seeing: (1) a non-AQ team win an undisputed football national championship, (2) a senior PGA tour player win a golf major, and (3) Kentucky beat Tennessee in football.  These secondary milestones aren’t quite as important as the big four, but they are still things that would be the icing on the cake to a great life as a sports fan.  Well one of those items can officially be checked off the list as the Wildcats beat the Volunteers in an ugly slugfest on Saturday afternoon.

Boise’s loss to TCU and the impending all-SEC title game rematch has really ruined this college football season for me.  Kentucky’s win on Saturday just proves that the Lord will always find a way to brighten your life, just when you need it the most.

2.  My 2011 Bowl Projections- My 14^th annual College Football Bowl Projections will be published on this site on Monday morning!  Be on the look out to see where your favorite team(s) will likely be playing this postseason.

3.  Cougar Dominance- There’s nothing really to be said here except “wow!”  Over the past few weeks, I have been mocked by many critics for ranking Houston # 1 on my top 25 ballot.  Well, they sure validated my stance this weekend with a dominating road victory over Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane had run through their C-USA schedule with ease until they met the Cougars on Friday afternoon.  It was then that Case Keenum proved why he deserves the Heisman trophy by putting up 558 yards of offense en route to a 32-point victory!  If you still think that Houston has no business playing in the national title game please consider this: only two football teams in the history of the game have scored at least 35 points in every single game they’ve played for an entire season.  One of them was the 1995 national champion Nebraska Cornhuskers, considered by many to be the best team of all-time, and the other is this year’s Houston Cougars.

Bad Thoughts:

1.  Meaningless Final Saturday- I warned about this looming disaster in my thoughts of the week column last week, and now the situation is officially upon us.  A true college football fan’s worst nightmare has been realized.  We have reached the final weekend of the college football regular season and not a single championship week game matters.  I thought the whole point of this horrible BCS system was to create a “regular season playoff” where every weekend matters.  Now you’re telling me that the national title game is already set in stone even before a single conference championship game is played!  Everyone is an agreement that LSU can just go to into the Georgia Dome, get lit up by Dawgs in the SEC Championship game, and then just sit back and wait to play Bama.

Think about that for a second… if Georgia beats LSU in the SEC title game, WE WILL HAVE A SITUATION WHERE THE SECOND AND THIRD BEST TEAMS IN THE SAME CONFERENCE PLAY EACH OTHER IN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSIHP GAME!   THAT’S ABSURD!!!  Especially when you consider that there is another really good undefeated team still out there (Houston) and a one-loss team who actually beat the SEC Champion!  Let’s not forget that Boise State beat Georgia in the Georgia Dome to start the season.  If Georgia goes on to beat LSU in that exact same stadium, THERE IS NO ARGUMENT  in the world not based on bigotry, hate and/or discrimination that validates putting LSU and Alabama in the title game over Boise State.  Not a single one.  You would be putting the second and third place teams in the SEC (each with one loss) in the national title game when a different one-loss team actually beat the SEC Champ.

That BCS Math would look like this: 2 one-loss teams worse than SEC Champ > one-loss team better than SEC Champ.  What a joke.  I’m not sure how Rece Davis, Mark May, Craig James, or anyone else who defends this system can sleep at night.

2.  The Bruin Dilemma- What a mess UCLA has gotten itself into!  I have speculated for years about the hilarious possibility of a 6-6 team losing bowl eligibility by sneaking into its conference championship game and then losing to drop to 6-7.  It almost happened last year with SMU in Conference USA.  The Mustangs clinched the C-USA West Division and bowl eligibility with a 6-5 record entering the final weekend of the regular season.  However, a loss to ECU and then a loss in the C-USA title game would drop SMU to 6-7 and not give them the .500 or better record necessary to play in a bowl game.  Fortunately, the Mustangs knocked off ECU to get to 7-5 and did not have to worry about losing their bowl eligibility status in the conference title game.  This year UCLA is not so lucky.  The Bruins clinched bowl eligibility two weeks ago with a victory over Colorado, but with this weekend’s loss to Southern Cal, UCLA enters the Pac-12 Championship game with a 6-6 record and will almost assuredly lose their bowl eligibility status by losing at Oregon on Friday night.  This begs the question: should UCLA even play next Friday’s game?  Could they just decline to play in the championship game to ensure themselves bowl eligibility?  After UCLA loses to the Ducks, the Bruins do have the option to ask the Pac-12 to apply for an NCAA waiver that would allow the Bruins to play in a bowl game despite their 6-7 record.  However, there are two problems with this course of action.  The first is that traditionally such waivers have been denied by the NCAA, as a 6-6 Arizona State squad had its waiver application rejected just last season (albeit under different circumstances).  The second issue is that reports are circulating that Rick Neuheisel may be fired as UCLA’s coach soon after Friday’s game is played.  If that’s the case, I am not even sure the Bruins would even be interested in playing in a postseason bowl game.  At the beginning of this year, could anyone fathom a scenario where Neuheisel got his UCLA team to the first-ever conference title game and then got fired?  This whole situation is quite bizarre.

3.  Heartbreak in the Pac-12 South- Speaking of the Pac-12 South, there are two other teams and fanbases who have to be sick to death that they didn’t end up clinching this horrible division.  In the beginning of November, Arizona State had a two-game lead over the entire division and looked more assured of playing in their conference title game than any other team in the country.    However, Arizona State then went out and lost their last four games of the season, all against mediocre-to-bad competition in games they were heavily favored to win.  With ASU down for the count, the title then seemed to be Utah’s for the taking.  In fact, if the Utes had just beaten an abysmal 2-9 Colorado team on Friday, then they would be the Pac-12 South Champs.  However, Utah failed to show up on either side of the ball and ended up losing to the Buffs 17-14, despite being a 21 point favorite.  Now, that it’s all said and done and UCLA basically won the Pac-12 South by default, I think it’s safe to say that the Bruins might be the worst division champion in BCS conference history.

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the third-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be good enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligibility.  With one week to go in the regular season, there are still 5 teams on the list with 1 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 4 predicted to fall short.  In all, I’m projecting there to be 72 bowl eligible teams for 2011 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 70 bowl slots to be filled.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (1):

Pitt- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Syracuse; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 56%, 64%, 64%)

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (4):

USF- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 25%, 55%, 54%)

Hawaii- Record: 6-6 (needs 7 wiins); Remaining Schedule: vs. BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% (previous odds: 54%, 54%, 41%)

Syracuse- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Pitt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40% (previous odds: 62%, 44%, 44%)

UConn- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Cincy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37% (previous odds: 43%, 43%, 30%)

Already Bowl Eligible (71): Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas, Cincinnati, Rutgers, West Virginia, Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Southern Miss, Houston, Tulsa, SMU, BYU, Notre Dame, Ohio, NIU, Ball State, TCU, Boise State, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona State, Georgia, South Carolina, LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Arkansas State, UL-Lafayette, San Diego State (previous odds: 97%), Wyoming (previous odds: 97%), Baylor (previous odds: 96%), Temple (previous odds: 96%), Utah (previous odds: 95%), Toledo (previous odds: 94%), Nevada (previous odds: 88%), Louisiana Tech (previous odds: 82%), FIU (previous odds: 81%), California (previous odds: 81%), Western Michigan (previous odds: 89%, 88%), Florida (previous odds: 99%, 98%), Missouri (previous odds: 64, 93%), Texas A & M (previous odds: 98%, 92%), Northwestern (previous odds: 85%, 80%), UCLA (previous odds: 65%, 63%) ,Wake Forest (previous odds: 61%, 61%), Western Kentucky (previous odds: 59%, 58%), Louisville (previous odds: 55%, 49%), Iowa State (previous odds: 24%, 24%), Utah State (previous odds: 52%, 59%, 77%), Mississippi State (previous odds: 72%, 70%, 69%), Air Force (previous odds: 72%, 57%, 68%), NC State (previous odds: 45%, 11%, 66%), Purdue (previous odds: 33%, 65%, 59%), Marshall (previous odds: 57%, 56%, 58%), Vanderbilt (previous odds: 44%, 52%, 47%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (44): Southern Cal*, Miami-FL*, Boston College, Maryland, Kansas, Indiana, Minnesota, Memphis, UAB, Tulane, Buffalo, Akron, Central Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon State, Arizona, Colorado, Ole Miss, UL-Monroe, Florida Atlantic, Idaho, Troy (previous odds: 21%), San Jose State (previous odds: 13%), Fresno State San Jose State (previous odds: 9%), Duke (previous odds: 8%), Middle Tennessee State (previous odds: 7%), Rice (previous odds: 5%), Army (previous odds: 4%), UNLV (previous odds: 1%), Miami-OH (previous odds: 31%, 19%), Bowling Green (previous odds: 38%, 27%), Navy (previous odds: 34%, 60%), UCF (previous odds: 54%, 53%), North Texas (previous odds: 9%, 42%), Washington State (previous odds: 6%, 14%), New Mexico State (previous odds: 2%, 5%), Colorado State (previous odds: 11%, 3%), Kentucky (previous odds: 10%, 2%), Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 38%, 46%, 23%), Kent State (previous odds: 12%, 21%, 25%), UTEP (previous odds: 15%, 32%, 32%), Tennessee (previous odds: 58%, 51%, 81%), East Carolina (previous odds: 39%, 20%, 42%), Texas Tech (previous odds: 53%, 45%, 36%)

*  denotes teams who have won enough games to become bowl eligible but are either ineligible for a bowl bid based on NCAA sanctions or have announced that they will be declining a bid this season.

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 71

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 1

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 44

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 4

For the third-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing the conference championship races.  Bold teams have already clinched their division or conference.  Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all of the week 13 games, which were played on or before November 26th.

ACC Atlantic- Clemson

ACC Coastal- Virginia Tech

Big 12- Oklahoma State (The Sooners and Cowboys will meet in a de facto Big 12 title game next Saturday night.)

SEC East- Georgia

SEC West- LSU

Big East- West Virginia (Wow, could this race be any crazier with a week to go in the season?  West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Louisville are all in a three-way tie at the top and two of those three teams have conference games in the final weekend.  The games that will decide the race are West Virginia at South Florida on Thursday night and Cincinnati vs. UConn on Saturday afternoon.  Here are the various championship-clinching scenarios: 1) if WV and Cincy both lose OR Cincy loses and WV wins, then Louisville will take the conference crown and become the worst BCS participant ever!  2) If WV loses and Cincy wins, then Cincinnati will become the Big East Champ Champ.  3) However, if WVU and Cincy both win, which I think is the most likely scenario then things will get really interesting. When such a three-way tie exists, the conference tiebreak procedure calls for the highest ranked team in the BCS Standings to win the league and represent the conference in a BCS Bowl.  The only problem with that is that are currently no Big East teams are ranked in the top 25 of the BCS Standings?!?!  However, if the Mountaineers win next week, they will likely sneak into the BCS top 25 and get the conference’s auto BCS bid, so that’s why I’m finally picking them to win this league.)

Big Ten Legends- Michigan State 

Big Ten Leaders-Wisconsin

Pac-12 North- Oregon

Pac-12 South- UCLA (Arizona State = greatest late season choke job ever.  UCLA = greatest late season turnaround ever.  Also, it deserves mentioning that while all the SEC supremacists brag about LSU’s win over the Pac-12 North champ, Houston has a win over the Pac-12 South champion on the very same weekend.)

Mountain West- TCU (The Horned Frogs have officially clinched the MWC but they’ve got greater aspirations. Thanks to Southern Miss’ loss to UAB, the Horned Frogs are in line to get a non-AQ BCS berth if Houston were to falter in one of its final game.  The Frogs would definitely be the highest ranked non-AQ team at that point, and I’m pretty sure they’d sneak into the top 16 of the BCS Standings.)

C-USA East- Southern Miss

C-USA West- Houston (Only two football teams ever have scored at least 35 points in every game all season.  Those teams are Nebraska’s 1995 national title team, which is considered by many to be the best in the history of the game, and this year’s Houston squad.  Can we please give these guys a shot at the national title!)

MAC East- Ohio (my preseason MAC East pick has turned out to be correct!)

MAC West- NIU

Sun Belt- Arkansas State (The Red Wolves have clinched the Sun Belt title and can achieve an improbable 10 win season with a victory over Troy on December 3^rd.)

WAC- Louisiana Tech (Derek Dooley probably wishes he never left the friendly confines of Ruston, LA.)

Another week of upset magic for Brad Matthews!  For the fourth consecutive week I hit at least half of my non-longshot upset picks.  I now have a whopping 31-28 record with such picks, so it appears I may have a legitimate opportunity to finish above .500 in picking underdogs of at least three points to win straight up!  I’m not sure anyone has accomplished that feat before, but I’m hoping I can do it with my upset picks in week 13 and 14 as well as my bowl upsets to watch out.  I have five more upsets for you consider this week including my double-digit longshot pick and my upset special of the week.  You will also see that I’m not just playing it safe in hopes of keeping my winning record intact.  In fact, four of the five upsets I am offering this week feature underdogs of at least six points!  Just as a reminder, the “Upset Special” classification is used to denote the upset that I believe is most likely to occur each week (similar to my lock of the week in my weekly picks column).  The lines below are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.

Tulsa (+3.0) vs. Houston- This upset pick may surprise some of you because of how much I have hyped up Houston the past few weeks.  Nevertheless, Tulsa was my surprise pick to win this division so I can’t just turn away from them now they’re a game away from getting to the conference title game.  This is going to be a high-scoring and entertaining shootout that could go either way.  In other words, it will be the exact opposite of what you see in your typical high-profile SEC game.

Georgia Tech (+6.0) vs. Georgia (Upset Special of the Week)- See my analysis for this game in my picks of the week entry below.

San Jose State (+6.5) at Fresno State- Here’s a game from the wild and wacky WAC where absolutely anything can happen. Both of these teams have had extremely up and down seasons, so if San Jose State plays as good as they have at times this season (see wins over Navy and Hawaii) and Fresno plays as bad as they are capable of (see losses to New Mexico State and worst of all Ole Miss), then the Spartans have a great chance of springing the upset here.

Northwestern (+6.5) vs. Michigan State- See my analysis for this game in my picks of the week entry below.

Double-Digit Longshot of the Week: Auburn (+21.0) vs. Alabama- See my analysis for this game in my picks of the week entry below.

After four straight mediocre handicapping weeks, I’m finally back to my winning ways following a 6-4 performance in week 12.  Sixty percent isn’t amazing or anything but as a renowned sports handicapper I realize I have to at least get 55% of my picks correct in order to be taken seriously.  My overall record is now eight games over .500, so it will looks I will finish with a winning record against the spread for the third consecutive season.  This weekend is rivalry week, which also presents a unique set of challenges when selecting spreads.  First of all that old cliché about “throwing the records out the window” is often true during rivalry week.  Typically each team’s emotions and mindset play just as much of a role in the outcome of these games as sheer talent.  You have to really see who has a lot to play for this weekend and who will be looking ahead.  Several teams have conference title games to prepare for so those squads may not be as focused and motivated as they need to play when they encounter their archrival this Friday or Saturday.  All of the spreads below are from the World Sports Exchange’s current lines and are ordered based on my personal confidence in each.

Pick # 1 (Lock of the Week): Marshall (Pick) vs. East Carolina- As you may have noticed, after each Saturday in November I post a “bowl game bubble watch” column where I approximate each team’s chances of obtaining bowl eligibility.  Last Saturday I noticed that Marshall vs. East Carolina was a de facto bowl play-in game as both teams needed a victory to become bowl eligible.  Since Marshall had the slightly better year overall and was playing at home, I gave them a 58% chance of beating ECU and getting to a bowl game.  Likewise, I gave East Carolina a 42% chance of getting there under the assumption that Marshall would probably win this game.  That is why I was dumbfounded when the Pirates opened as favorite in this game!  The line has been bet down to a pick’em but I still think the Thundering Herd win this one at home.

Pick # 2: Auburn (+21.0) vs. Alabama- This is just way too high of a spread for several reasons.  First of all, I don’t believe Bama’s offense is good enough to score more than three touchdowns against about anyone.  Also, Auburn always plays well against the Tide, as they won seven of the last nine in this series.  In fact, you may remember two years ago a # 2 ranked Bama team traveled to the Plains and needed a final minute drive to hold off a similarly mediocre Auburn squad.  I realize that the Tigers got pummeled by Georgia a couple of weekends ago, but that was a road game and the Dawgs offense is much more potent than Bama’s.  Given how the last few weeks have played out in the college football and the way this rivalry has played out the past few years don’t be shocked if Auburn not only keeps it close… but perhaps pulls off another shocking Iron Bowl upset.

Pick # 3: Michigan (-7.0) vs. Ohio State- The Wolverines have been one of the best home teams in the country in 2011, and this Saturday I think Michigan will take out a decade’s worth of frustration (Ohio State has won 9 of the last 10 in this series)  against the Buckeyes and win this one in runaway fashion.

Pick # 4: Stanford (-7.0) vs. Notre Dame- The Cardinal failed to cover the past two weekends, but this is a much more favorable spread for Stanford.  Notre Dame has struggled mightily on the road all season and needed to recover an onside kick to beat lowly Boston College last Saturday.  Meanwhile, this is Andrew Luck’s last chance to impress Heisman voters so I expect a big game from the senior quarterback.  The Irish may keep this one close for a quarter or two, but Stanford will pull away and win by double-digits.

Pick # 5: Syracuse (+2.5) vs. Cincinnati- The Bearcats just aren’t the same football team without Zach Collaros at quarterback (sorry Munchie Legaux!).  The Cuse have also played really well at home all year and need this win to become bowl eligible.

Pick # 6: Wyoming (+32.5) at Boise State- I still love my Broncos, but I must admit their secondary is shambles right now.  Wyoming’s potent offensive attack will be able to throw all day on Boise, and even though they will eventually get outscored by Kellen Moore and company, 32.5 points is way too many to give here.

Pick # 7: Virginia Tech (-4.0) at Virginia- The Hoos have been one of the most erratic teams in the country this season, as they have picked up wins against Miami, Florida State, and Georgia Tech but have also lost or almost lost to Southern Miss, Idaho, Indiana and NC State.  Therefore, it seems like they are due to have an “off day” after their dramatic and emotional victory over FSU last Saturday.  Meanwhile, the Hokies have actually played better on the road than at home this season.  As much as I’d love to see the Cavs shock the world and make the ACC Championship game, Virginia Tech will win this one by at least a touchdown.

Pick # 8: Memphis (+35.5) at Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles looked absolutely terrible in their shocking loss to UAB last Thursday.  Meanwhile, Memphis showed signs of life in their near defeat of Marshall.  This weekend I think the Tigers will play hard for their lame duck coach Larry Porter and make this a much more respectable loss than Vegas oddsmakers are calling for.

Pick # 9: Georgia Tech (+6.0) vs. Georgia- I have been great with the upset picks all season, so I’m going to pick two games here which are also on  “upsets to watch out for” list this weekend.  The Dawgs are already in the SEC Championship game, so I think they may very well get caught looking ahead this weekend.  If a defense isn’t complete dedicated to preparing for and stopping Georgia Tech’s triple-option attack, then the Jackets have the ability to run all over you.

Pick # 10: Northwestern (+6.5) vs. Michigan State- My analysis for this matchup is pretty similar to the Georgia-Georgia Tech game above.  This game is essentially meaningless for Michigan State, which has a Big 10 title game to look forward to next weekend and also hasn’t played great on the road all year.  Meanwhile, Northwestern has looked like one of the most improved football teams in the country the past few weeks.

Last Week’s Record: 6-4, Overall Season Record: 64-56

Bonus NFL Pick of the Week # 1: Baltimore (-3.5) vs. San Francisco- The 49ers have built an impressive record this season by beating up on inferior opposition.  Unfortunately, I think they’ll be in for a rude awakening when they travel cross country to play the Ravens this Thursday.  I like Baltimore to win this one by at least a touchdown.

Bonus NFL Pick of the Week # 2: Seattle (-4.0) vs. Washington- I hit my NFL pick, so I’m feeling so confident that I’m going to give you two pro games for you to consider this weekend.  This is the ultimate situation of two teams heading in the opposite directions.  The Seahawks have won back-to-back games including a victory over what is widely considered the AFC’s best team in Baltimore.  Meanwhile, the Skins have lost SIX STRAIGHT including two to league bottom feeders Miami and Carolina.

Tonight, Justin and I present a special episode of the 68 & 16 sportscast.  This sportscast is 90 minute debate on multiple “outside the box” football related topics.  First of all, we discuss whether the NFL is watchable under its current television contract.  Secondly, we examine how fans picked their teams of interest.  Do you have free choice, does your environment influence your rooting interests, or is it a combination of the two?  Finally, we discuss how a fan’s morals should impact what teams they choose to follow.  You’re not going to want to miss the most heated and controversial sports debate of 2011.

http://68and16sportscast.tumblr.com/

I have been planning to write a lengthy analysis of college football’s top rivalries for several months now, and I thought this would be the perfect time to publish it.  The first few “end of year” rivalry games (more on that classification in a bit) took place this past Saturday, and the next two weeks will be filled with rivalry grudge matches from all across the country.  It’s time to just sit back and enjoy the best few weeks of the college football season!

Let me begin first by stating the parameters and factors I have used to conduct this analysis of college football rivalry games.  The first rule I have established is that only FBS games are being considered.  Sorry, I know that Lafayette-Lehigh and Harvard-Yale are as intense and historic rivalry games as any, but I just don’t follow enough non-FBS football to properly evaluate those games.  Secondly, the focus of this rivalry analysis will be on the intensity of a rivalry, and not necessarily its history or its aura.  In other words, I care more about how much two teams hate each other than about how many famous players, coaches, and great games a particular rivalry has possessed.

Now that you know what I’m trying to do here, I am going to discuss the criteria I relied on most heavily in my analysis.  There are three controversial premises I used as the baseline for my evaluations:  (1) The first is that intrastate rivalries are superior to interstate rivalries; (2) the second is that inter-conference rivalries are superior to intra-conference rivalries; and (3) the third is that “the animosity must be mutual”.  I obviously took into account other factors such as historical significance, the quality of games, the level of play the success of the participants, etc., but when push comes to shove, a rivalry’s importance can be boiled down to the three components mentioned above.  I will now explain each of these premises in more detail.

Premise # 1: Intrastate rivalries are superior to interstate rivalries- Ohio State fans have argued this point with me until they were blue in the face.  They insist that their rivalry with Michigan is the best in the country, and while it definitely makes my top 10 list, it can’t even approach the top spot because of its interstate nature. Intrastate rivalries are just so much more personal than those between two schools from different states.  When you graduate high school in a state where there’s two big state universities, typically half your friends go to one university and about half go to the other.  As a result, you’re left with friends, relatives, co-workers, and neighbors who are divided in their athletic allegiances.  Every day at work there’s taunting.  At every neighborhood block party there’s bickering.  And whichever team wins the annual rivalry game gets bragging rights for the next 365 days.  This may seem like an exaggeration to some of you, but that’s what exactly what happens in states like Alabama, Virginia, South Carolina, and Mississippi.  The same phenomenon just doesn’t exist in interstate rivalries like Ohio State-Michigan, USC-Notre Dame, or Oklahoma-Texas.  In those situations, the teams are separated geographically so the schools and their fanbases don’t have to interact with the enemy on a daily basis.  The bottom line here is that: the greater the familiarity and interaction between fan bases, the more passionate a rivalry will be.

Premise # 2: Inter-conferernce rivalries are superior to intra-conference rivalries- This premise is definitely the most controversial of the three that I have used for my rivalry analysis.  Many people will disagree with this contention stating intra-conference rivalries carry with them greater implications because they can affect conference and/or division title races.  While that may be true in some cases, the phenomenon known as “conference cheering” trumps any potential benefits of having an archrival from your own conference.  I have criticized and sneered at conference cheerers for years now, yet it seems like they are expanding exponentially.  Quite simply, conference cheerers are those who will cheer for any team in their favorite school’s conference in any non-conference game they play.  These people are the scourge of humanity in my opinion… the folks who will sell their soul to the devil and cheer for their archrival all because they are imaginarily representing their school’s conference in a non-conference matchup.  SEC football fans are notorious for this of course.  They want to see their fellow SEC rivals and competitors do well against anybody from any other league.  This phenomenon is not just limited to the SEC though, in fact it extends nationally.  I personally know Pac-12 fans who cheer for Pac-12 teams.  I have Wake Forest and UNC friends who cheer for the Puke Blue Devils to do well in the NCAA tournament.  And yes, I even encountered an Ohio State fan this fall who was cheering for Michigan to beat Notre Dame, just so the Big 10 would appear more respectable.  All in all, this conference cheering phenomenon is one of the most absurd aspects of college sports, and it can really put a damper on a good rivalry.  Red Sox fans would never cheer for the Yankees.  Redskins fans would never cheer for the Cowboys.  Why then did thousands of Alabama fans cheer for Auburn in the BCS Title Game last season?  The golden rule of a rivalry is “thou shall never root for my archrival.”  Not if they’re playing North Korea.  Not if they’re playing Al-Qaeda.  And certainly not if they’re playing Oregon.

Premise # 3: The animosity must be mutual- This is a little more straightforward of a concept than the other two premises I have discussed so far.  In order to be a true rivalry, both teams must make it their top priority to hate the other.  Any rivalry that doesn’t possess a “mutuality of hate” is automatically barred from the list.  Therefore, you will not see games like NC State vs. North Carolina, Kentucky vs. Tennessee, or Tennessee vs. Florida in my rankings.  In all three of those cases, the first team mentioned despises the second, but the second team has another rival whom they are more concerned with.

So without further ado, here is my full list of the top 10 rivalries in college football.  Feel free to comment and debate.

# 10: The Holy War: Utah vs. Brigham Young- If you read the premises I used for these rankings, you will understand that this rivalry has a lot going for it.  It is an intrastate rivalry with each team regarding the other as their intense archrival.  Also, it is now an inter-conference game, as both schools broke away from the Mountain West at the end of last season.  Furthermore, the games in this series are typically close, as four of the last six meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.  This rivalry even has a great and somewhat humorous nickname- “The Holy War”.  So then you may ask why is this game so far down my list of the best college football rivalries.  Well, unfortunately, this matchup suffers from a major scheduling dilemma now that the two teams are no longer in the same conference.  Rivalry games are best played during the last two weeks of the season for several reasons.  First of all, late-November rivalry games allow each team to end its season with a huge and intense victory.  Also, if a rivalry game is played at the end of the year, it can have bigger ramifications in terms of bowl bids and conference championships.  Unfortunately, “The Holy War” is now played in mid-September which really puts a damper on the importance of this game.  I really wanted to rank this matchup higher on this list, but “end of year” rivalry games must take precedence.

# 9: Clean Old-Fashioned Hate: Georgia Tech vs. Georgia- This is a great name for a very good intrastate rivalry.  You will come to find out that this is the one of the few games on this list which meets all three of the major criteria I mentioned previously– it is intrastate, inter-conference, and both teams hate each other.  The reason I’m not ranking them higher than # 9, however, is that the Georgia has so many other rivals that I am not sure the Yellow Jackets can truly be considered the Dawgs’ archrival.  Georgia also has historic and hate-filled rivalries with Florida, Auburn, and South Carolina, so the Bulldogs and their fans have too many other people to hate besides Tech.

#8: Florida State vs. Florida- I have to put at least one Florida rivalry on this list, so I am going with the Noles and Gators.  The problem with the Florida rivalries is that all the schools involved are like Georgia in that they have two or two different teams whom they consider as rivals.  Florida has to spread their rivalry animosity between Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida State; while, Florida State is intense rivals with both the Gators and the University of Miami.  It sort of takes away from the significance of a rivalry when both teams involved have other rivalry matchups dispersed across the season.  Nevertheless, this is an intrastate, inter-conference, end of year rivalry game that involves two traditional powerhouses.  There’s not much more a college football fan can ask for.

# 7: The Big Game: California vs. Stanford- This rivalry has some very distinct pros and cons.  The cons are that traditionally (though not recently) both teams are horrible and the game lacks any tangible significance.  Also, I don’t like the fact that this game is now played the Saturday before Thanksgiving, which is a week before rivalry games really gets going.  However, those cons are outweighed by several other factors.  First of all, no other rivalry features two schools ranked in the top 21 of the U.S. News & World Report Rankings.  Personally, I think the whole public school brainiac vs. private school brainiac vibe is pretty cool.  Also, “The Big Game” certainly has the most entertaining trophy presentation of all rivalry games, as these two universities have student-run “Axe Committees” who take control of the “Stanford Axe” at the end of the game.  The committees from each school meet at midfield just as time expires and the school currently possessing the Axe either retains it through their committee or transfers it to the opposing committee.  Finally, this rivalry clearly possesses the most epic play of any rivalry game in college football, and possibly the greatest play in the history of sports (“The Band is on the Field!”).  Overall, the pros outweigh the cons here, so The Big Game gets a prominent ranking.

# 6: The Border War: Missouri vs. Kansas- As far as interstate rivalries go, this has to be a close runner-up to the vastly overrated Ohio State-Michigan game (see description below).  These two states hate one another; these two schools hate one another; and these two teams hate one another.  It wasn’t until 2007 that this game finally got the attention it deserved when these two squads played one another in the biggest game of the college football regular season.  As an aside, I will be very interested to see how the Border War adapts to the new inter-conference status it will take on starting next season when Mizzou moves to the SEC.  Will it become even more intense, or will it fizzle away?

# 5: The Civil War: Oregon vs. Oregon State- Any game called “The Civil War” deserves to be ranked as one of the top 5 college football rivalries.  Recently, this matchup has produced a slew of high-scoring shootouts that have had major postseason implications.

# 4: The Game: Ohio State vs. Michigan- This game would probably end up # 1 or 2 on most people’s rivalry list but as I mentioned at the beginning of this column, the factors I’m using for my analysis are somewhat unique.  This game loses a lot of points in my book because it’s not an intrastate or inter-conference rivalry.  Though some will deny this, there are in fact Ohio State and Michigan fans who are Big 10 homers and cheer for their archrival when they are involved in non-conference games.  Likewise, even though the fanbases may hate one another, they certainly don’t have to deal with each other on a regular basis.  Michigan fans are hard to come by in Ohio, and Ohio State fans are equally hard to find in Michigan.  Thus, the familiarity factor is low here.  Despite the fact that this rivalry game has decided multiple national championships and possesses two of the most legendary coaches in all of football, Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler, this game is topping out at # 4 in my rankings for the reasons mentioned above.

# 3: Army vs. Navy- This is definitely the most tradition-rich rivalry in all of sports.  Also, the fact that the game is played a week after everybody else finishes their regular season is really cool.  Overall, I love the Army-Navy game as much, and probably more than most college football fans, but the reason I can’t rank this game any higher on this list is because when push comes to shove these two teams and these two academies don’t really hate each other.  Clearly, they have a deep-seated respect for one another and for all the sacrifices the other makes.  Don’t get me wrong, that is definitely a good thing.  It would be horrible for America if our Navies and Armies truly disdained one another. However, “hate” is the principal component of a true archrivalry, so this game just can’t crack my top 2 for that reason.

# 2: The Iron Bowl: Alabama vs. Auburn- I have always considered this game the ultimate sports rivalry.  In fact, I ranked it as my # 1 rivalry in all of sports just last year.  So then you may ask why does it appear at # 2 on this list, especially after ESPN just produced an epic documentary about it.  SEC Pride is the reason.  The so-called “conference cheering” phenomenon has knocked this game down from the pinnacle of rivalries. I always thought Alabama and Auburn fans hated each other so much that they would never cheer for one another no matter the circumstances.  Well I was proved wrong last fall when a number of Alabama fans, including some I was very close to, rooted Scam Newton and his Auburn Tigers to beat Oregon in the national title.  Their inexplicable pride in the SEC and its quest for five straight national titles caused Bama fans to compromise moral fibers and root for the Tigers in the title game.  In the beginning of this column I stated that the golden rule of a rivalry is “thou shall never root for my archrival.”  Not if they’re playing North Korea.  Not if they’re playing Al-Qaeda.  And certainly if they’re not playing Oregon.  Alabama fans violated that rule and as a result this rivalry has been knocked down for the pinnacle of college sports.

#1: The Palmetto Bowl: Clemson vs. South Carolina- As both a former resident of South Carolina and a passionate Gamecock fan, this may seem like the most biased selection of all-time.  However, if you carefully read the parameters I used for my analysis, then you understand why this rivalry takes the cake.  First of all, the animosity is both mutual and intense.  These schools really, really despise each other.  In fact, I have several friends who I am either not friends with anymore or not as close with solely based on the hatred that spews from this rivalry.  Secondly, this is the ultimate intrastate matchup.  An overwhelming majority of college graduates in South Carolina (granted there aren’t that many of those, lol) call one of these two universities their alma mater.  As a result, the entire state is divided between neighbors, co-workers, friends, and relatives who argue, gloat, and taunt each other throughout the year.  However, the one thing that separates this rivalry from most others and catapults it to the top of the list is the inter-conference component.  As I have discussed throughout this column, inter-conference rivalries are frankly more intense because there is no “brotherhood alliance” between the two universities.  In other words, the South Carolina fans who adore the SEC as a whole will never have any reason to cheer for Clemson.  Likewise, the Clemson fans who adore the entire ACC will never have any reason to cheer for the Gamecocks.  In fact, I am confident that no true fan on either side of this rivalry would ever cheer for their opposition, regardless of the circumstance.  That my friend is what a rivalry game is all about!