Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the preseason, I ranked all teams 1-120 and also took an average of the full 1-120 preseason rankings from several different preseason publications.  Last week, I compared our preseason rankings with each team’s final ranking to figure out if I was more accurate with my preseason picks than the average expert.  Here are the results: the experts’ average picks more accurately predicted the final postseason outcome of 62 teams.  I was more accurate in my analysis of 54 teams and there were four ties between us.  Even though the experts edged me in that competition, we actually tied in total ranking variations for each team.  If you add up the disparity between my preseason rankings and the final rankings below, as well as those from the experts, you will find that we both scored exactly 2,484 points.  It’s unbelievable that such a complex calculation could produce a tied result.  We also tied in the number of teams we predicted exactly right.  The experts correctly picked Purdue to finish 85th in the country, and I correctly pegged New Mexico to finish at # 119.  (Note: I used Pre Snap Read’s Final Top 120 as the final poll used to compare my preseason and postseason predictions).

In this entry, I will display the following results in table format so you can see how each of us did in our evaluations of every single team in the country.  By the way, the so-called experts’ national ranking consists of preseason polls created by cfnscout.com, Lindy’s, the Sporting News, Athlon, Phil Steele, Rivals as well as both the official preseason AP and and Coaches Polls.  The first column on the table is my preseason ranking for each team.  The column entitled “PS” is each team’s postseason final ranking.

Final Outcome:

Teams: Experts win 62-54 (4 ties)

Total Score: Tie: 2,484-2,484

Exactly Right: Tie 1-1

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In this entry we will look at what teams surprised/disappointed the preseason experts the most, which is a nice way of saying, “wow, no one saw this coming.”  The final national rankings used for this entry are from the Pre Snap Read’s Final Top 120 poll.

Teams that surprised the nation the most:

1.  UL-Lafayette- finished 67 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 6 spots higher in conference play

2.  Arkansas State- finished 65 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play (note: you can see based on surprise teams # 1 and 2 that the Sun Belt was obviously the craziest conference in the country this season.)

3.  Kansas State- finished 56 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 4 spots higher in conference play

4.  Louisiana Tech- finished 57 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 1 spot higher in conference play

5.  Western Kentucky- finished 48 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 6 spots higher in conference play

6.  Northern Illinois- finished 40 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 2 spots higher in conference play (note: this is the second straight season where NIU has been on the list of the country’s top postseason surprise teams.)

7.  Rutgers- finished 40 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 2 spots higher in conference play

8.  Utah State- finished 35 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 5 spots higher in conference play

9.  Baylor- finished 34 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 5 spots higher in conference play

10.  Wyoming- finished 36 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play

11.  Marshall- finished 36 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play

12.  Virginia- finished 33 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play

13.  Ball State- finished 37 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 1 spot higher in conference play

14.  Wake Forest- finished 24 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play

15.  Michigan- finished 20 spots higher nationally than the experts predicted and 2 spots higher in conference play

Teams that disappointed the nation the most:

1.  Maryland- finished 65 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 1 spot lower in conference play (Talk about a topsy-turvy team: The Terps were # 3 on last year’s postseason list of nation’s top surprise teams.)

2.  South Florida- finished 51 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 5 spots lower in conference play

3.  Tennessee- finished 41 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play

4.  Arizona State- finished 40 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play

5.  Oregon State- finished 40 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play (It’s unbelievable that preseason prognosticators don’t learn their lesson from year to year.  You would think after the Beavers finished # 7 on last year’s list of most disappointing teams that experts wouldn’t make the same mistake this season.  Nevertheless, here Oregon State is on the list of the most overrated teams in the country all over again.)

6.  Boston College- finished 48 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 1 spot lower in conference play

7.  Texas A & M- finished 35 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 5 spots lower in conference play

8.  Pittsburgh- finished 34 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 4 spots lower in conference play

9.  Ohio State- finished 37 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 3 spots lower in conference play

10.  Texas Tech- finished 35 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 3 spots lower in conference play

11.  Central Florida- finished 34 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play

12.  North Carolina- finished 31 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play

13.  Troy- finished 26 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 6 spots lower in conference play

14.  Fresno State- finished 29 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 4 spots lower in conference play

15.  Hawaii- finished 26 spots lower nationally than the experts predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

These are the teams that surprised me/disappointed the most, which is a nice way of saying, “wow, I really messed up my forecasting of these teams”.

Teams that surprised me the most:

1.  Arkansas State- finished 67 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play

2.  Kansas State- finished 54 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 6 spots higher in conference play

3.  Louisiana Tech- finished 53 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 4 spots higher in conference play

4.  UL- Lafayette- finished 56 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play

5.  Michigan- finished 51 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play (The Wolverines are the second BCS bowl team, West Virginia is the other, that I incorrectly predicted to disappoint in 2011.)

6.  Northern Illinois- finished 56 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 2 spots higher in conference play

7.  Western Kentucky- finished 45 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 5 spots higher in conference play

8.  Cincinnati- finished 43 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 4 spots higher in conference play

9.  West Virginia- finished 40 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 4 spots higher in conference play (As you saw in the last entry, I had the Mountaineers on my disappointment team list for 2011.  What a terrible pick!)

10.  Marshall- finished 46 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play

11.  Wake Forest- finished 40 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play (What a pleasant surprise this was!)

12.  Utah State- finished 35 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 4 spots higher in conference play

13.  Wyoming- finished 39 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play

14.  Baylor- finished 38 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play

15.  Virginia- finished 36 spots higher nationally than I predicted and 3 spots higher in conference play

Teams that disappointed me the most:

1.  South Florida- finished 50 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 4 spots lower in conference play

2.  Illinois- finished 50 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 3 spots lower in conference play (It seems like I get burned by the Illini every year.  For the entire five-year existence of my preseason predictions, I have vastly overrated or underrate Illinois almost every season.)

3.  Maryland- finished 52 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play (The Maryland-Miami and season opener was the ultimate example of how the presentation of a game makes two teams seem so much better than they are.  The two squads met on a Monday night ESPN primetime broadcast that Maryland ended up squeaking out in the final minutes.  The next day, the country was talking about how these could be two of the top teams in the entire ACC.  Later, of course, we found out that the Canes and Terps were two of the worst teams in the conference.  If you wonder why there is a perception that teams in the SEC are so much better than everybody else, especially mid-majors, please consider the significant role that production value plays in altering your perception.  I guarantee you that if NBC owned rights to the Mountain West and dressed up Boise and TCU’s games into primetime HD telecasts, you would think both teams are better than you currently do.)

4.  Troy- finished 45 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 5 spots lower in conference play (What happened to these guys this year?  They just stopped playing football after week 2 or 3.)

5.  Tennessee- finished 46 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play

6.  Oregon State- finished 43 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play

7.  Texas A & M- finished 32 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 5 spots lower in conference play

8.  Pittsburgh- finished 38 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 3 spots lower in conference play

9.  Air Force- finished 32 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 3 spots lower in conference play

10.  UCF- finished 39 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play

11.  Idaho- finished 25 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 4 spots lower in conference play

12.  Fresno State- finished 28 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 3 spots lower in conference play

13.  UConn- finished 25 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play

14.  UAB- finished 25 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play

15.  Miami-OH- finished 22 spots lower nationally than I predicted and 2 spots lower in conference play

Here are my preseason disappointment teams in order of the relative disparity between my picks and the experts’ average while also taking into account the relevance of the pick.  The numbers in parentheses in the “My predictions” column represent the numerical difference between my pick and that of the experts, both nationally and within each team’s conference.  The team’s actual postseason finish is posted in the column to the right of that.

Bold teams are squads that ended up disappointing the nation (or at lease part of it) just as I predicted.  Italicized teams are ones that ended up falling short of my lofty expectations and finishing closer to where most experts predicted them to be.  Normal font represents teams that didn’t quite meet my lofty expectations for them, but also performed better than most of the experts believed they would.

When determining my final results, I conduct two separate analyses.  First, I simply count how many I picked correctly, how many incorrectly, and how many “pushes”/ties that I had.  The second form of analysis I use is an adjusted score, where I get/lose more points for my top surprise teams than I do for lesser surprise picks.  For example, I earn 10 points for a correct first pick, 9 point for a correct second pick, etc.  Likewise, I lose 10 points for an incorrect first pick, I get -9 points for an incorrect second pick, etc.

Disappointment Pick Results: 5 correct, 4 wrong (personal best: 6 correct, 4 wrong in 2009)

Adjusted Score: 9 (best ever was 22 in 2007)

Here are my preseason surprise teams in order of the relative disparity between my picks and the experts’ average while also taking into account the relevance of the pick.  The numbers in parentheses in the “My predictions” column represent the numerical difference between my pick and that of the experts, both nationally and within each team’s conference.  The team’s actual postseason finish is posted in the column to the right of that.

Bold teams are squads that ended up surprising the nation (or at lease part of it) just as I predicted.  Italicized teams are ones that ended up falling short of my lofty expectations and finishing closer to where most experts predicted them to be.  Normal font represents teams that didn’t quite meet my lofty expectations for them, but also performed better than most of the experts believed they would.

When determining my final results, I conduct two separate analyses.  First, I simply count how many I picked correctly, how many incorrectly, and how many “pushes”/ties that I had.  The second form of analysis I use is an adjusted score, where I get/lose more points for my top surprise teams than I do for lesser surprise picks.  For example, I earn 10 points for a correct first pick, 9 point for a correct second pick, etc.  Likewise, I lose 10 points for an incorrect first pick, I get -9 points for an incorrect second pick, etc.

Surprise Team Results: 2 correct, 6 wrong (personal best: 9 correct, 3 wrong in 2007)

Adjusted Score: -6 (best ever was 64 in 2007)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

Here are my preseason bowl predictions.  My correct picks are marked in bold, and an analysis of my success is featured at the bottom of this entry.

Comparison with Phil Steele: Phil ended up being more accurate than me in picking both bowl slots and complete bowls.  I correctly predicted 7 bowl slots and 0 total bowls, while Phil got 9 bowl slots and 1 full bowl.

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: UL-Lafayette- “The Sun Belt appears to be divided into third this year with the top two a step above teams 3-5 and then 6-9 a clear step behind those.  With that being said, these bottom four teams aren’t nearly as horrendous as the Sun Belt doormats of years past.  The Ragin’ Cajuns are my predicted sixth place team, which is a lot higher than most experts have them.  This team was a game away from their first-ever bowl berth in both 2008 and 2009 only to fall just short.  Last year, they were a major disappointment, but I don’t think this squad is as far down on the totem pole as people say they are.  They got a great young coach, Mark Hudspeth, who I think will have an immediate impact on the program.  They are also experienced with over half of the starters coming back on both sides of the ball.  Believe it or not, UL-Lafayette has won at least three Sun Belt games each of the last six seasons, and I don’t have any reason to believe they won’t pull out at least three this year.” (postseason note: The Sun Belt was without a doubt the most topsy-turvy league of college football this season, as the two teams everyone expected to battle it out for the conference crown (Troy and FIU) ended up finishing in the middle of the league or worse, and the two teams most people had finishing in the basement (Western Kentucky and UL-Lafayette) ended up challenging for the conference title.  Like everyone else, I also underrated the Ragin’ Cajuns this season, but I am calling them my most accurate Sun Belt pick for 2011 because I didn’t predict them to finish nearly as low as everyone else did.)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: North Texas- “I’ll believe it when I see it.  That has been my motto for North Texas in my last two college football preview guides and now I’m applying it one more time.  Each of the past two seasons, multiple experts have predicted that the Mean Green football program to make major strides forward, and both years they faltered just the same.  In fact, Phil Steele inexplicably picked them to finish third in the Sun Belt last year!  Believe it or not, North Texas has finished either last or second-to-last in the Sun Belt every year since their 2004 Sun Belt title, yet many experts are once again picking them to finish in the top 2/3 of the conference!  Realistically, there is no reason to believe the Mean Green will improve this season, as they have to adjust to a new coach with vastly different schemes and replace over half of their offensive starters including QB Riley Dodge.  I think Coach Dan McCarney is the guy who can eventually get this program turned around but it’s certainly not going to be done overnight.” (postseason note: The Mean Green did, in fact, end up making significant strides in 2011, finishing with a 4-4 conference mark and 5-7 overall record.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

I win 3-2 in the head-to-head team comparison.

I win by 1 point using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Ohio- “Despite all of his success at Ohio, Frank Solich has still never won the MAC Championship.  Well, I’m picking them to win the MAC East this year but to once again fall short in the title game, as they have done in two of the past five seasons.  There are definitely some questions marks for this squad, as they have to replace eight starters on defense and break-in a new quarterback.  Solich also announced after last year’s New Orleans Bowl loss that he will be installing a new up-tempo, no huddle attack, which may cause some confusion early in the season.  I am thus somewhat apprehensive about picking them to win the East but I am doing so based largely on their schedule.  The MAC East is a three-team race between Ohio, Temple, and Miami, and the Bobcats get to host both of the Owls and the Redhawks this seasons.  Believe it or not, Ohio actually beat both of those teams on the road in 2010, so I believe they will take care of their business at home and win the MAC East.” (postseason note: My second sentence in this prognostication says it all.)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Northern Illinois- “Both of the MAC conference title participants from 2010 (Miami-OH and NIU) are bound to have a slight drop off after losing their head coaches and leading rushers.  The Huskies, however, also have to replace nine defensive starters, which is why they definitely won’t contend for the conference championship again.  Nevertheless, a favorable schedule should allow NIU to get at least 7 wins and another bowl berth..” (postseason note: There ended up being no drop off for the Huskies in 2011, as QB Chandler Harnish led this squad to a surprise conference championship.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

Phil wins 3-2 in the head-to-head team comparison.

Phil wins by 3 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Conference Overview- “In all of my past college football preview guides I have ranked the Sun Belt and MAC as the two worst Division 1-A football conference.  However, the WAC has now fallen below the MAC in my opinion thanks to the departure of Boise.” (postseason note: I know this isn’t a traditional preseason pick, but I believe the most significant prognostication I made for this conference was just predicting how bad it was going to be.)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Louisiana Tech- “I predicted the Bulldogs to finish with a mediocre 5^th place finish last season and that’s exactly where they ended up.  This season I think they’ll find themselves in the exact same position.  Sonny Dykes seems to be a solid hire, but this squad must break-in a new starting QB and face a brutal schedule both in and out of conference play.  Getting to a bowl this year would  be quite the achievement.” (postseason note: The Bulldogs ended up being one of the surprise teams of the year in college football and actually won the WAC.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

Brad wins 4-2 in the head-to-head team comparison.

Brad wins by 2 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: New Mexico- “I hate to make a preseason prediction that calls for a head coach to get fired, but it’s really a no-brainer here.  Mike Locksley has won two total games in two seasons at New Mexico, and this year he only has two returning starters on offense.  In fact, the Lobos offensive unit will start ten underclassmen and only one senior in 2011.  Losing a bunch of bad offensive players isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but there’s just no way this woefully young squad will produce the results necessary to keep Locksley employed in the program.  I will give it to the guy though, he’s staying optimistic, as he claimed in the offseason that “a bowl berth is a realistic goal.”  I think two wins is a more realistic goal, as they should be able to beat either Sam Houston State or arch rival New Mexico State at home early in the season.  Either win would be Mike Locksley’s first non-conference victory at New Mexico, but after that, I’m calling for the Lobos to then lay an 0-8 goose egg in MWC play.” (postseason note: Sure enough, Locksley was fired as soon as the losses started to pour on, and this squad went on to win only one game in 2011.)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Air Force- “There is a lot to like about this 2011 Air Force squad, which is why I’m picking them to finish in the MWC # 2 spot.  First of all, this team had a lot better season last year then people realize as they were just a few plays away from ending the season 12-1!  They also got a huge win against Georgia Tech in the Independence Bowl which definitely gave them a lot of confidence going into the offseason.  Furthermore, the Falcons return superstar QB Tim Jefferson, as well as seven of their defensive starters.  The real kicker though is the schedule which gives them the opportunity to play an inexperienced TCU squad at home and in just the second week of the season.  They should be able to pick up that victory and start the season 4-0 before making a tough trip to South Bend.  However, besides their road games against Notre Dame and Boise State, I think this squad should run the table and finish the season inside the top 25.” (postseason note: For whatever reason, the Falcons just never got it going in 2011, as they ended up finishing 5th in league play and barely snuck into a bowl game.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

Phil wins 4-0 in the head-to-head team comparison.

Phil wins by 4 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Southern Miss- Despite their consistent success, the Golden Eagles have never played in a conference title game before.  Well, I’m calling for that streak to end this season, as Larry Fedora’s squad has the tools in place to win and win big in 2011.  Austin Davis returns as QB to engineer an experienced unit that returns seven starters.  However, the Golden Eagles’ best weapon this season is without a doubt their schedule which enables them to play fellow eastern division favorite UCF at home and to avoid two of three powerhouses from the C-USA West.  In fact, there is a not a single game on their schedule this year that Southern Miss can’t win.  Now, I don’t think the Eagles are going to run the table or anything, but I do believe they will do enough to get a shot at the conference crown on December 3^rd. (postseason note: Not only did the Eagles make the C-USA title game, but they actually pulled a shocker and won it!)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Marshall- There are some teams that I annually can’t get a very good preseason gauge on and Marshall has become one of them.  I greatly underestimated the Thundering Herd in 2009 but then over-ranked them in 2010.  This cycle may continue in 2011 because I am predicting Marshall to be a little worse than some people expect.  They have to replace 11 offensive starters including their starting quarterback and running back.  They also face a tough schedule both inside and outside of C-USA play.  As a result, I think a second-straight losing seems is assured, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this team failed to win more than a couple of games.  (postseason note: My erroneous evaluation of Marshall continued for the third straight season, as the Herd went on to win a bowl game in 2011.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

I win 2-0 in the head-to-head team comparison.

I win by 2 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Arkansas- The loss of Ryan Mallet is a big one, but Tyler Wilson’s solid play as a backup in 2010 has many Hog fans excited about this squad.  Skill position stars Knile Davis and Greg Childs return as does 11 of the 17 defensive starters.  The Razorbacks’ defense is actually one of the most underrated units in the country, as much like Boise State, so much of the attention is focused on the offense that the defense is often overlooked.  The Hogs actually ranked in the top half of the SEC last year in total defense, but they will need that unit to be even better in 2011 because I don’t think the offense will be quite as good.  The Razorbacks are one of those teams that I see being a little better in some areas, a little worse in others, and as a result ending up in about the same place they did last year.  In fact, they may once again play LSU for the right to go to the Sugar Bowl, just like they did in 2010.  Unfortunately, this year’s Hogs have to travel to Baton Rouge on November 25^th, and I expect the Tigers to come out, get revenge, and prevent Arkansas from reaching its second straight BCS game. (postseason note: Sure enough, the Hogs entered their finale against LSU with a chance to win the division, and just like I said, the Tigers knocked them off.)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Vanderbilt- Usually when a team returns 19 of 22 starters, it’s an indication that they will be much improved in the upcoming season.  That is of course unless you’re Vanderbilt and you play in the SEC where every other team’s newcomers are twice as talented as your returnees.  Still, James Franklin seems to have injected some much needed energy in this program, and senior Larry Smith is one of the best quarterbacks in the country that you’ve never heard of.  I think Vandy will definitely improve on last year’s dismal 2-10 campaign but don’t expect the ‘Dores to approach bowl eligibility in 2011.  (postseason note: I was right that Franklin would inject energy and enthusiasm in the program, but I clearly underestimated just how magical that energy would be.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

Phil wins 4-1 in the head-to-head team comparison.

Phil wins by 4 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis # 1: Stanford- Several preseason publications are calling for the Cardinal to take a step back this season, but I just don’t see it.  I realize that they lose twelve starters and head coach Jim Harbaugh from 2010, but they still have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Andrew Luck.  Also, new coach David Shaw was Harbaugh’s very successful offensive coordinator, so there should be a great deal of continuity in terms of strategies, schemes, and leadership.  Moreover, the schedule will give the Cardinal plenty of time to break-in their new starters as they should be heavily favored in every game they play until their October 29^th clash at Southern Cal.  Finally, keep in mind that Stanford’s only loss last year was against the national runner-up on the road.  This year their game against Oregon will be played in Palo Alto, and I think the Stanford faithful will finally have a raucous home crowd for that matchup.  Expect another BCS bowl trip for Stanford in 2011. (postseason note: In the 68 & 16 College Preview Sportscast, I also called for Stanford to go 11-1 in the regular season with their one loss coming to Oregon.  Thus, I correctly predicted the outcome of the Cardinal’s entire season!)

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis # 2: Southern California- Even though I’m picking the Trojans to win the division, I can’t actually pick them to make the Pac-12 championship game because they are still ineligible for postseason play.  With that being said, this team could still play a major role in shaping the Pac-12 and national championship races thanks to their interdivisional games against both Stanford and Oregon.  Southern Cal returns fourteen total starters including emerging star quarterback Matt Barkley.  I envision another solid 9 or 10 win season for Lane Kiffin’s squad and expect them to shake up the college football world by knocking off either highly-ranked Notre Dame, Oregon, or Stanford. (postseason note: I just had to include two of my top picks for this conference because of how accurate they both were.)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Oregon- It is very rare in college football to see a team lose the national title game and then come back the next season to win it all.  However, that’s exactly what I’m calling the Ducks to do in 2011.  All the pieces are in place for this team to once again run the table through the Pac-12, and finish in the BCS top 2.  They return seven of the eleven starters from their high-powered offense, including dynamic QB/RB duo Darron Thomas and LaMichael James.  Their schedule is also manageable as their only losable games appear to be the neutral site opener against LSU and a Nov. 12 trip to Stanford.  Once the Ducks get to the national title game, I’m actually picking them to play Oklahoma, as the SEC seems to finally lack a dominant team that is capable of running the table.  The Oregon-OU matchup would be a rematch of the epically controversial onside kick game that was played five years in Eugene, and while I think Oklahoma can keep the title game close, the Sooners always finds a way to lose big games.  So there you have it, I’m picking the Oregon Ducks to be this year’s national champion.  I feel confident in this prediction, but I will admit that it is definitely scary making a national championship pick that could very well fall apart in the first week of the season. (postseason note: My worst fears were realized when this pick came to a crashing halt in week 1.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

I win 4-2 in the head-to-head team comparison.

I win by 3 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Kansas- My best disappointment pick in 2010 was probably my prediction that the Kansas Jayhawks would be one of the worst teams in the country.  Everybody assumed that Turner Gill was going to inject some immediate magic into a roster that was the least talented in the league, but I saw right through the hype.  My exact words were, “for some reason, many people are picking the Jayhawks to make a bowl in Turner Gill’s first season in Lawrence.  Meanwhile, I think they only win two games and go winless in conference.”  Well they exceeded my expectations by picking up three wins, but unfortunately, this year’s Jayhawk team won’t be much better.  They will have to break-in a new QB and RB, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing until you consider the fact that both starting quarterback candidates threw more interceptions than touchdowns in 2010.  Another three-win campaign in Lawrence seems about right. (postseason note: I actually slightly overestimated the Jayhawks this season as they ended up winning only two games.)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: Kansas State- Bill Snyder is getting old, and I think last season might have been the peak of his second stint at K-State.  The fact of the matter is that him and his staff just can’t recruit like they used to (K-State’s 2011 class ranked last in the Big 12) and you can only rely on diamond in the rough JUCO transfers for so long.  Thus, I’m afraid the Wildcats 2010 trip to the Pinstripe Bowl may be their only bowl invite for several seasons.  I admire Snyder for coming back and trying to resurrect the program that he basically created, but I just don’t think he has the high quality assistants necessary to have success as a head coach at the age of 71.  This year’s Wildcats team will have to rebuild their offense as they lose six starters including their star RB Daniel Thomas.  Defensively, this squad should be improved but that’s not saying much when you ranked 106^th in total defense last year.  In the end, I don’t see any way the Wildcats getting to a second straight bowl game.  (postseason note: I’m not sure I’ve ever underestimated a team more than I did the Wildcats this season.  What an amazing job Bill Snyder did with this squad.)

Well, the college football season has come to a close, and it’s time to look back to see how accurate my preseason predictions were compared to the experts.  Overall, this is the fifth season I’ve conducted this full, in-depth analysis of my preseason picks and have had mixed results in doing so.  I ended up being more accurate than the experts in both 2007 and 2009, less accurate in 2008, and about the same in 2010 (see full history here).  This year I had some highlights and lowlights, but overall my predictions were slightly worse than Phil Steele and most other preseason prognosticators.  With that being said, I still had some ingenious predictions which deserve some recognition.

In the chart below, the column entitled “Phil Steele” is his preseason prediction for each team.  The column entitled “my ranking” is my preseason prediction for each team.  The “actual ranking” column is where each team ended up in their final conference standings.  The column entitled “winner” indicates who more accurately predicted the outcome of that team’s season.  Finally, the “Stassen” column displays the numerical difference in our predictions according to the Stassen survey (read more about that here).  Under the chart, I have also displayed my most accurate and least accurate picks for this conference along with the corresponding commentary featured in my preseason college football guide back in August.

Phil wins 6-2 in the head-to-head team comparison.

Phil wins by 8 points using the Stassen Survey.

My most accurate pick/preseason analysis: Rutgers- Yes, you read that correctly!  I am picking the Scarlet Knights who were an abysmal 1-6 last season last season to win this league!  If you are wondering what the heck I am thinking, let me explain my reasoning.  First of all, let’s remember Rutgers has done this before, as Greg Schiano’s bunch shocked the college football world by coming within a few plays of winning the conference in 2006 after being picked to finish in the bottom half of the league.  Secondly, the Scarlet Knights are the only team in the entire conference who currently has a steady coaching situation.  In fact, every Big East team this year except Rutgers and Syracuse will be dealing with a new coach that is in either his first or second year on the job and is still trying to install his own schemes and put his personal stamp on the program.  Moreover, I really like both the talent on this Rutgers team and attitude permeating within this program.  I thought Schiano might be losing his way after last year’s dismal season, but then they landed an incredible recruiting class in the spring that ranked # 1 in the conference.  Now, the mojo seems to flowing again within this program, as they bring back an emerging star quarterback (Chas Dodd), a cast of talented receivers, and all but two other offensive starters from last year.  This is probably the craziest preseason pick I have made in any of my college football preview guides, but sometimes you just got to trust your instincts, roll the dice, and see what happens.  (note: this pick didn’t quite come to fruition, but it was close that it deserves some recognition)

My least accurate pick/preseason analysis: West Virginia- The Mountaineers always seem to find a way to finish near the top of the Big East, but they are facing some extraordinary circumstances in 2011.  First of all, one wonders what kind of emotional effect the Bill Stewart-Dana Holgorsen feud had on these players and if the ramifications of it will continue to linger throughout the fall.  Secondly, even though Holgorsen’s offense is extremely potent, it can’t be installed overnight, so I envision there will be some difficulties in executing the offense at the start of the year.  The defense also must be replaced in full, as only four starters return from last year’s squad.  Furthermore, the Mountaineers’ schedule is somewhat unkind as they only get three conference home games.  Because of the accumulation of all of these factors, I believe this program will slip a bit and finish with its lowest win total since 2001. (note: this is another team that I was off on but that 68 & 16 guest Tripp absolutely nailed.)