Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 17th annual college football preview guide which will contain 18 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record.  These records include conference title games for the two division champions but exclude bowl games which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog.  The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility.  Without further ado, here are my predictions for the Sun Belt Conference in 2023, which has clearly jumped both Conference USA and the MAC in league strength thanks to some key expansion and development efforts.

East Division

1	Coastal Carolina (11-2, 7-1)– conference champion

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at UCLA (September 2)- your week 1 late night upset special!

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Georgia Southern (September 30)

Bottom Line: The epic tenure of quarterback Grayson McCall has to have a happy ending doesn’t it? I know the Chants lose their head coach, but almost all of the key contributors are back from a team that has become the most dominant force in the Sun Belt in this decade.

2	Appalachian State (9-3, 6-2)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Wyoming (September 23)- a trip to the Rockies won’t bother a team that is literally named after a mountain range!

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at James Madison (November 18)

Bottom Line: The Mountaineers had one of the most inexplicably strange seasons last year, as they started the season with a legendary contest against UNC followed by epic victories against Texas A & M and Troy and then completely collapsed and failed to attain bowl eligibility. Expect a more consistent campaign for App in 2023, as this team can win the league thanks to a schedule in which they host Coastal and avoid both South Alabama and Troy out of the west.

3	Georgia Southern (7-5, 5-3)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Coastal Carolina (October 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Georgia State (October 26)

Bottom Line: Clay Helton is way ahead of schedule in transforming this historically option-based run offense into a potent passing attack. In fact, the Eagles offense ranked in the top 20 nationally in 2022, and they return 7 starters from that unit in 2023. The bad news is they have to replace their stellar QB Kyle Van Trease as well as 7 defensive starters. Expect a slight improvement from this squad in 2023, but they are not yet talented enough to challenge for the conference crown.

4	Marshall (6-6, 4-4)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Virginia Tech (September 23)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at East Carolina (September 9)

Bottom Line: Defensive departures and a brutal schedule will likely prevent the Herd from matching last year’s 9 win mark. This team, however, will once again be a physical bunch that will find a way to attain bowl eligibility.

5	Georgia State (7-5, 4-4)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Troy (September 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Louisiana (October 21)

Bottom Line: This program took a step back in 2022, as a brutal early season schedule kept them home for the bowl season for the first time in 4 years. Shawn Elliott has built this program into a respectable upper echelon Sun Belt program, and I think experienced offense coupled with a more manageable schedule will take the Panthers bowling in 2023.

6	James Madison (5-7, 3-5)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. App. State (November 18)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Georgia Southern (October 14)

Bottom Line: Besides Tulane, the Dukes may have been the biggest surprise team in the country last year as they ended up winning the Sun Belt East title in their very first season at the FBS level. This year, however, this squad is not going to take anyone by surprise, as I expect some regression due to a tougher schedule coupled with loss of their starting quarterback, running back, and top receiver.

7	Old Dominion (2-10, 1-7)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. App. State (November 18)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Georgia Southern (October 14)

Bottom Line: This program crashed back down to Earth in 2022 after a surprising bowl season in ’21. The fact of the matter is this program has just not recruited well enough to compete in this improved league, as I think they would have been better off staying in their former league, the depleted Conference USA.

West Division

1	Troy (9-4, 7-1)– conference runner-up

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. South Alabama (November 2)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Army (October 14)- just seems like one of those midseason non-conference games in which the road favorite just isn’t motivated.

Bottom Line: It should once again be a two-team race for the Sun Belt West title between the Trojans the Jaguars of South Alabama, and while I think USA has a slightly more talented squad, I am calling for Troy to repeat as division champs largely due to the fact that they host South Alabama off a short week on November 2nd.

2	South Alabama (9-3, 6-2)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Tulane (September 2)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Texas State (November 25)

Bottom Line: This team came within a couple of plays of having an undefeated regular season last year, and with 16 returning starters, they will be really good again.  However, they will struggle to match last year’s 10 mark thanks to a grueling schedule that includes road games against Tulane, Troy, Oklahoma State, and James Madison.

3	Southern Miss (6-6, 4-4)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Tulane (September 16)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Arkansas State (September 23)

Bottom Line: Frank Gore Jr. might be the most talented running back in the country, as his legs coupled by an experienced offensive line should wreck havoc on opponents’ run defenses.  Nevertheless, the Golden Eagles must replace their quarterback, top receiver, and top three tacklers, so I don’t expect much improvement from last year’s 7-6 mark. 

4	UL-Lafayette (5-7, 3-5)

Positional Strength: Defensive Back

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Buffalo (September 23)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Old Dominion (September 9)

Bottom Line: This program reminds me a lot of Northern Illinois 10 years ago in that you have a team that dominated a Group of Five league for multiple seasons, and then they lose their head coach and begin a gradual descent into mediocrity.  I am calling for Michael Desormeaux’s group to take another step back in 2023, as they are one more year further removed from Billy Napier’s recruiting dominance in 2020 and ‘21.

5	Texas State (4-8, 3-5)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. South Alabama (November 25)- a end of season shocker for the Bobcats!

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Nevada (September 23)

Bottom Line: Jake Spavital seemed like a great hire for this program in 2019, but it appeared to end up as one of those situations where he was better suited to be a coordinator than a head coach at this point in career.  In comes G.J. Kinne, who ran an impressively explosive offense at Incarnate Word.  He will need a few years to get the right guys in place though, as Kinne is basically starting over on both sides of the ball (only 7 total returning starters).

6	Arkansas State (4-8, 2-6)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Southern Miss (September 23)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Texas State (November 18)

Bottom Line: Can Butch Jones resurrect his floundering career?  He may have to show some progress this season to keep his job in 2024, as he has only won 5 total football games in two full seasons in Jonesboro.  I am not sure this is the team that will take that next step for them, as they only bring back eight total starters and have to replace their starting quarterback, running back, top receiver and leading tackler. 

7	UL-Monroe (2-10, 0-8)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Army (September 2)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Texas State (October 14)

Bottom Line: Terry Bowden began his head coaching career at the FBS level with an impressive 20 game winning streak at Auburn, and ironically, I am calling for him to end his head coaching career with an embarrassing 10 game losing streak here at Monroe. In fact, after Monroe plays Lamar in Week 2, this team should be a sizable underdog in the rest of their games in 2023.  They just haven’t recruited well enough to rise up from the bottom of this league.