Week 14 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current consensus lines on VegasInsider.com:

Kansas State (+4.5) at TCU- 12:00
Wyoming (+6.5) vs. San Diego State- 7:45
Colorado (+7.0) vs. Washington- Fri 9:00
UL-Monroe (+7.0) vs. UL-Lafayette- 3:00
Florida (+24.0) vs. Alabama-4:00

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: NC State (+12.0) over North Carolina

Brad’s 22nd Annual College Football Bowl Projections

Date Bowl Teams Time Channel
1 17-Dec New Mexico UTSA New Mexico 2:00 ESPN
2 17-Dec Las Vegas San Diego State Army* 3:30 ABC
3 17-Dec Cure Eastern Michigan UL-Lafayette 5:30 CBSS
4 17-Dec Camellia Miami-OH Appalachian State 5:30 ESPN
5 17-Dec New Orleans Old Dominion Arkansas State 9:00 ESPN
6 19-Dec Miami Beach Tulsa Toledo 2:30 ESPN
7 20-Dec Boca Raton UCF Western Kentucky 7:00 ESPN
8 21-Dec Poinsettia Wyoming Brigham Young 9:00 ESPN
9 22-Dec Famous Idaho Potato Central Michigan Boise State 7:00 ESPN
10 23-Dec Bahamas Memphis Southern Miss 1:00 ESPN
11 23-Dec Armed Forces Navy North Texas* 4:30 ESPN
12 23-Dec Dollar General Ohio Troy 8:00 ESPN
13 24-Dec Hawaii Middle Tennessee Hawaii* 8:00 ESPN
14 26-Dec St. Petersburg Houston Mississippi State* 11:00 ESPN
15 26-Dec Quick Lane Boston College Maryland 2:30 ESPN
16 26-Dec Independence Wake Forest Vanderbilt 5:00 ESPN2
17 27-Dec Heart of Dallas South Alabama* Louisiana Tech 12:00 ESPN
18 27-Dec Military Temple NC State 3:30 ESPN
19 27-Dec Holiday Iowa Washington State 7:00 ESPN
20 27-Dec Cactus Baylor Colorado State 10:15 ESPN
21 28-Dec Pinstripe Pittsburgh Northwestern 2:00 ESPN
22 28-Dec Russell Athletic Virginia Tech West Virginia 5:30 ESPN
23 28-Dec Foster Farms Indiana Stanford 8:30 FOX
24 28-Dec Texas TCU Texas A & M 9:00 ESPN
25 29-Dec Birmingham South Florida Arkansas 2:00 ESPN
26 29-Dec Belk North Carolina South Carolina 5:30 ESPN
27 29-Dec Alamo Oklahoma State Colorado 9:00 ESPN
28 30-Dec Liberty Kansas State Kentucky 12:00 ESPN
29 30-Dec Sun Georgia Tech Utah 2:00 CBS
30 30-Dec Music City Minnesota Tennessee 3:30 ESPN
31 30-Dec Arizona Idaho Air Force 5:30 CBSS
32 30-Dec Orange Florida State Michigan 8:00 ESPN
33 31-Dec Citrus Louisville Florida 11:00 ABC
34 31-Dec Taxslayer (Gator) Miami-FL Georgia 11:00 ESPN
35 31-Dec Peach- Semifinal Alabama Washington 3:00 ESPN
36 31-Dec Fiesta- Semifinal Clemson Ohio State 7:00 ESPN
37 2-Jan Outback Nebraska LSU 1:00 ABC
38 2-Jan Cotton Western Michigan Penn State 1:00 ESPN
39 2-Jan Rose Wisconsin Southern California 5:00 ESPN
40 2-Jan Sugar Auburn Oklahoma 8:30 ESPN
9-Jan Championship Game Semi # 1 Winner Semi # 2 Winner 8:30 ESPN

Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 13 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the eighth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but as we saw last year with Nebraska, Minnesota, and San Jose States, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 if all spots aren’t filled.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there is 1 team on the list with 1 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 0 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 76 bowl eligible teams for 2016 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled, so be prepared for another group of 5-7 squads to attain bowl bids in 2016.  This list is updated through all games played on November 26th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (1):

UL-Lafayette Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 31%, 31%, 26%)

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (0):

Already Bowl Eligible (75):  Temple, South Florida, Tulsa, Navy, Houston, Memphis, Clemson, Louisville, Wake Forest, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Ohio, Western Michigan, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Boise State, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, Colorado, Utah, Southern Cal, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Texas A & M, Arkansas, Appalachian State, Troy, UCF (previous odds: 75%), Miami-FL (previous odds: 90%), Brigham Young (previous odds: 99%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 57%), Georgia (previous odds: 92%), Idaho (previous odds: 77%), Pittsburgh (previous odds: 84%), LSU (previous odds: 59%), Iowa (previous odds: 67%), Central Michigan (previous odds: 48%), Arkansas State (previous odds: 80%, 85%), Kentucky (previous odds: 98%, 97%), South Carolina (previous odds: 97%, 95%), Army  (previous odds: 96%, 94%), Kansas State (previous odds: 91%, 91%), Colorado State (previous odds: 54%, 47%), MIami-OH (previous odds: 52%, 63%, 63%), NC State (previous odds: 38%, 43%, 38%), TCU (previous odds: 65%, 65%, 46%), Southern Miss (previous odds: 60%, 52%, 37%), Maryland (previous odds: 86%, 84%, 82%), Indiana (previous odds: 70%, 66%, 65%), Northwestern (previous odds: 66%, 81%, 78%), Boston College (previous odds: 42%, 40%, 43%), UTSA (previous odds: 64%, 62%, 61%), Vanderbilt (previous odds: 37%, 15%, 33%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (52):  UConn, Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas, Michigan State, Rutgers, Florida International, Marshall, Florida Atlantic, Rice, UMass, Kent State, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, San Jose State, Fresno State, Oregon State, Arizona, Missouri, Georgia State, Purdue (previous odds: 7%), East Carolina (previous odds: 12%), New Mexico State (previous odds: 2%), Illinois, (previous odds: 4%), Tulane (previous odds: 3%), Texas State (previous odds: 1%), Oregon (previous odds: 29%), UTEP (previous odds: 36%), Hawaii (previous odds: 28%), Utah State (previous odds: 22%), Nevada (previous odds: 11%), Georgia Southern  (previous odds: 44%, 44%), Texas Tech (previous odds: 40%, 37%), Notre Dame (previous odds: 15%, 23%), UNLV (previous odds: 10%, 16%), Charlotte (previous odds: 35%, 14%), Duke (previous odds: 4%, 13%), UL-Monroe (previous odds: 6%, 12%), Ball State (previous odds: 9%, 9%), Cincinnati (previous odds: 18%, 8%), Syracuse (previous odds: 30%, 7%), California (previous odds: 41%, 36%), Mississippi State (previous odds: 39%, 39%), UCLA (previous odds: 26%, 28%), Akron (previous odds: 33%, 32%, 32%), Texas (previous odds: 89%, 83%, 58%), Arizona State (previous odds: 53%, 53%, 52%), SMU (previous odds: 20%, 35%, 30%), North Texas (previous odds: 34%, 33%, 55%), Ole Miss (previous odds: 56%, 75%, 57%), South Alabama (previous odds: 33%, 34%, 36%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 75

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 1 (76)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 52

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 0 (52)

Conference Championship Analysis- Week 13 Edition

For the eighth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing the conference championship races.  Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bold teams have already clinched their division or conference.  Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 26, 2016.

ACC Atlantic Clemson

ACC CoastalVirginia Tech

Big Ten EastPenn State

Big Ten WestWisconsin

Big 12Oklahoma (Who said the Big 12 Conference doesn’t have a title game?  By virtue of the Sooners win over West Virginia last night, the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State bedlam game will be a de facto conference championship game played on conference championship weekend.)

Pac-12 NorthWashington

Pac-12 South Colorado

SEC EastFlorida

SEC WestAlabama

AAC EastTemple

AAC WestNavy

C-USA EastWestern Kentucky

C-USA WestLouisiana Tech

MAC EastOhio

MAC WestWestern Michigan

MWC MountainWyoming

MWC WestSan Diego State

Sun BeltArkansas State (The Red Wolves lost a stunner to the Ragin’ Cajuns on Saturday but can still claim at least a co-Sun Belt Championship with a win over Texas State in the season finale.  If the Wolves do stumble, then Troy will take the championship with a win over Georgia Southern.  If both teams lose, then the outright Sun Belt title will go to App State.)

Week 13 College Football Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident.  Lines are based on the current spreads on vegasinsider.com.

Maryland (-13.0) vs. Rutgers- 12:00
Arkansas State (-7.0) at UL-Lafayette- 12:00
Idaho (-5.0) vs. South Alabama- 3:30
UTSA (-9.0) vs. Charlotte- 7:00
South Carolina (+23.5) at Clemson- 7:30
Utah (+10.0) at Colorado- 7:30
New Mexico (+3.0) vs. Wyoming- 10:15
Toledo (+9.0) at Western Michigan- Fri. 5:00
Texas (-2.5) vs. TCU- Fri 3:30
Washington State (+5.5) vs. Washington- Fri 3:30

Last Week’s Record: 6-4, Overall Season Record: 61-59

Week 13 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current consensus lines on VegasInsider.com:

New Mexico (+3.0) vs. Wyoming- 10:15
Nebraska (+3.0) at Iowa- Fri 3:30
California (+3.5) vs. UCLA- 7:00
Boston College (+4.0) at Wake Forest- 3:00
Washington State (+5.5) vs. Washington- Fri 3:30
Florida (+6.5) at Florida State- 8:00
SMU (+7.0) vs. Navy- 3:30
Iowa State (+7.5) vs. West Virginia- 3:30
Utah (+10.0) at Colorado- 7:30
NC State (+12.0) at North Carolina- Fri 12:00

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Florida (+14.0) at LSU

Conference Championship Analysis- Week 12 Edition

For the eighth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing the conference championship races.  Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bold teams have already clinched their division or conference.  Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 19. 2016.

ACC Atlantic Clemson

ACC CoastalVirginia Tech (The Hokies are tied with the Heels for the division lead but they possess the always important head-to-head tiebreaker between the two teams.  As a result, Virginia Tech just needs to beat Virginia or have UNC lose to NC State to win the Coastal.)

Big Ten EastPenn State (It’s so strange for me to pick the Nittany Lions to win this division over their vastly superior counterparts of Michigan and Ohio State.  However, as a result of of Michigan’s shocking loss to Iowa, Penn State now just needs to beat Michigan State and have Ohio State knock off Michigan in their finale in order to win the Big Ten East.)

Big Ten WestWisconsin (The Badgers clinch the division with a win on Saturday over Minnesota.  If the Badgers falter, then the division crown goes to the Cornhuskers as long as they can knock off Iowa on Friday.  If both teams falter, then we’ll have a crazy four-way tie between Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota which would still send the Badgers to the title game per Big Ten Tiebreaker procedures.)

Big 12Oklahoma (Who said the Big 12 Conference doesn’t have a title game?  By virtue of the Sooners win over West Virginia last night, the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State bedlam game will be a de facto conference championship game played on conference championship weekend.)

Pac-12 NorthWashington (This year’s Apple Cup will officially be a de facto Pac-12 North Title game.  Should be a good one.)

Pac-12 SouthColorado (Southern Cal is  sitting in the clubhouse with a 7-2 conference record, but the Buffaloes are still a game in front with one final home game standing between them and a shocking conference championship.  If Utah does upset the Buffs, then the Men of Troy will head to the Pac-12 title game.)

SEC EastFlorida

SEC WestAlabama

AAC EastTemple (The Owls will clinch a surprise AAC East Championship with a home win over East Carolina next Saturday.  If they falter, then USF can clinch the division with a win over UCF.  If both teams lose, then the crown will still belong to Temple.)

AAC WestNavy

C-USA EastWestern Kentucky (The Hilltoppers clinch the C-USA East with a win over Marshall in season finale or an Old Dominion loss to Florida International.  If Hiltoppers do get upset and the Monarchs win, then ODU will be the shocking C-USA East champs.)

C-USA WestLouisiana Tech

MAC EastOhio (Even though the Bobcats lost a tough one to Central Michigan on Tuesday, they still control their own destiny heading into the final weekend of the regular season.  They just need to either beat Akron or have Miami-OH lose to Ball State and they will clinch the division crown.)

MAC WestWestern Michigan (There will be two de facto division championships played on the day after Thanksgiving as the Western Michigan-Toledo matchup joins the Apple Cup as a winner-take-all division title game.)

MWC MountainBoise State (Wyoming clinches the division championship with a road win over New Mexico next Saturday or a Boise loss to Air Force.  However, I’m going to predict neither of those things to happen, and the Broncos to reclaim the division once more.)

MWC WestSan Diego State

Sun BeltArkansas State (The Red Wolves had one of their biggest nights in school history on Thursday at the basketball team knocked off Georgetown on the road and the football team upset Troy.  Now Arkansas State just needs to beat lowly UL-Lafayette and Texas State to claim the outright conference crown.)