Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 13 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the eighth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but as we saw last year with Nebraska, Minnesota, and San Jose States, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 if all spots aren’t filled.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there is 1 team on the list with 1 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 0 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 76 bowl eligible teams for 2016 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled, so be prepared for another group of 5-7 squads to attain bowl bids in 2016.  This list is updated through all games played on November 26th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (1):

UL-Lafayette Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 31%, 31%, 26%)

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (0):

Already Bowl Eligible (75):  Temple, South Florida, Tulsa, Navy, Houston, Memphis, Clemson, Louisville, Wake Forest, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Ohio, Western Michigan, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Boise State, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, Colorado, Utah, Southern Cal, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Texas A & M, Arkansas, Appalachian State, Troy, UCF (previous odds: 75%), Miami-FL (previous odds: 90%), Brigham Young (previous odds: 99%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 57%), Georgia (previous odds: 92%), Idaho (previous odds: 77%), Pittsburgh (previous odds: 84%), LSU (previous odds: 59%), Iowa (previous odds: 67%), Central Michigan (previous odds: 48%), Arkansas State (previous odds: 80%, 85%), Kentucky (previous odds: 98%, 97%), South Carolina (previous odds: 97%, 95%), Army  (previous odds: 96%, 94%), Kansas State (previous odds: 91%, 91%), Colorado State (previous odds: 54%, 47%), MIami-OH (previous odds: 52%, 63%, 63%), NC State (previous odds: 38%, 43%, 38%), TCU (previous odds: 65%, 65%, 46%), Southern Miss (previous odds: 60%, 52%, 37%), Maryland (previous odds: 86%, 84%, 82%), Indiana (previous odds: 70%, 66%, 65%), Northwestern (previous odds: 66%, 81%, 78%), Boston College (previous odds: 42%, 40%, 43%), UTSA (previous odds: 64%, 62%, 61%), Vanderbilt (previous odds: 37%, 15%, 33%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (52):  UConn, Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas, Michigan State, Rutgers, Florida International, Marshall, Florida Atlantic, Rice, UMass, Kent State, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, San Jose State, Fresno State, Oregon State, Arizona, Missouri, Georgia State, Purdue (previous odds: 7%), East Carolina (previous odds: 12%), New Mexico State (previous odds: 2%), Illinois, (previous odds: 4%), Tulane (previous odds: 3%), Texas State (previous odds: 1%), Oregon (previous odds: 29%), UTEP (previous odds: 36%), Hawaii (previous odds: 28%), Utah State (previous odds: 22%), Nevada (previous odds: 11%), Georgia Southern  (previous odds: 44%, 44%), Texas Tech (previous odds: 40%, 37%), Notre Dame (previous odds: 15%, 23%), UNLV (previous odds: 10%, 16%), Charlotte (previous odds: 35%, 14%), Duke (previous odds: 4%, 13%), UL-Monroe (previous odds: 6%, 12%), Ball State (previous odds: 9%, 9%), Cincinnati (previous odds: 18%, 8%), Syracuse (previous odds: 30%, 7%), California (previous odds: 41%, 36%), Mississippi State (previous odds: 39%, 39%), UCLA (previous odds: 26%, 28%), Akron (previous odds: 33%, 32%, 32%), Texas (previous odds: 89%, 83%, 58%), Arizona State (previous odds: 53%, 53%, 52%), SMU (previous odds: 20%, 35%, 30%), North Texas (previous odds: 34%, 33%, 55%), Ole Miss (previous odds: 56%, 75%, 57%), South Alabama (previous odds: 33%, 34%, 36%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 75

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 1 (76)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 52

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 0 (52)


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