Week 14 College Football Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident.  Lines are based on the current spreads from the Five Dimes online sportsbook.

Washington (-5.0) vs. Utah- (Fri) 8:00
Buffalo (-3.5) vs. Northern Illinois- (Fri) 7:00
Memphis (+3.5) at UCF- 3:30
California (+2.5) vs. Stanford- 3:00
East Carolina (+24.0) vs. NC State- 12:00
Ohio State (-14.0) vs. Northwestern- 8:00
Middle Tennessee (-3.0) vs. UAB- 1:30
Alabama (-13.0) vs. Georgia- 4:00
Clemson (-26.5) vs. Pittsburgh- 8:00
UL-Lafafayette (+17.5) at Appalachian State- 12:00

Last Week’s Record: 8-2, Overall Season Record: 68-62

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Week 14 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current consensus lines on vegasinsider.com:

Fresno State (+2.5) at Boise State- 7:45
California (+2.5) vs. Stanford- 3:00
Memphis (+3.5) at UCF- 3:30
Marshall (+4.0) at Virginia Tech- 12:00
Texas (+7.5) at Oklahoma- 12:30
East Carolina (+24.0) at NC State- 12:00

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Wake Forest (+13.0) over Duke

Brad’s 24th Annual College Football Bowl Projections

Date Bowl Teams Time Channel
15-Dec New Mexico Louisiana Tech Nevada 2:00 ESPN
15-Dec Cure Tulane UL-Lafayette 2:30 CBSS
15-Dec Las Vegas Boise State Arizona State 3:30 ABC
15-Dec Camellia Ohio Georgia Southern 5:30 ESPN
15-Dec New Orleans Middle Tennessee Appalachian State 9:00 ESPN
18-Dec Boca Raton South Florida FIU 7:00 ESPN
19-Dec Frisco Southern Miss Western Michigan 8:00 ESPN
20-Dec Gasparilla Bowl Cincinnati Duke 8:00 ESPN
21-Dec Bahamas Marshall Toledo 12:30 ESPN
21-Dec Famous Idaho Potato Northern Illinois Utah State 4:00 ESPN
22-Dec Birmingham Memphis Wake Forest 12:00 ESPN
22-Dec Armed Forces Baylor Houston 3:30 ESPN
22-Dec Dollar General Buffalo Troy 7:00 ESPN
22-Dec Hawaii UAB Hawaii 10:30 ESPN
26-Dec First Responder (Dallas) Brigham Young North Texas 1:30 ESPN
26-Dec Quick Lane Virginia Purdue 5:15 ESPN
26-Dec Cheez-It (Cactus) TCU Fresno State 9:00 ESPN
27-Dec Independence Miami-FL Army 1:30 ESPN
27-Dec Pinstripe Boston College Wisconsin 5:15 ESPN
27-Dec Texas Iowa State Auburn 9:00 ESPN
28-Dec Music City NC State Mississippi State 1:30 ESPN
28-Dec Camping World Syracuse West Virginia 5:15 ESPN
28-Dec Arizona Arkansas State San Diego State 5:30 CBSS
28-Dec Alamo Texas Utah 9:00 ESPN
29-Dec Peach Florida UCF 12:00 ESPN
29-Dec Belk Pittsburgh Vanderbilt 12:00 ABC
29-Dec Orange Clemson Notre Dame 4 or 8 ESPN
29-Dec Cotton Alabama Ohio State 4 or 8 ESPN
31-Dec Military Temple Virginia Tech 12:00 ESPN
31-Dec Sun Georgia Tech California 2:00 CBS
31-Dec Redbox (San Francisco) Minnesota Stanford 3:00 FOX
31-Dec Liberty Oklahoma State Missouri 3:45 ESPN
31-Dec Holiday Iowa Oregon 7:00 FS1
31-Dec Gator Michigan State South Carolina 7:30 ESPN
1-Jan Outback Penn State Kentucky 12:00 ESPN 2
1-Jan Citrus Northwestern Texas A & M 1:00 ABC
1-Jan Fiesta LSU Washington State 1:00 ESPN
1-Jan Rose Washington Michigan 5:00 ESPN
1-Jan Sugar Oklahoma Georgia 8:30 ESPN

Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 13 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the tenth-straight season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw two years ago with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 based on APR, if all spots are not filled.  All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there is one teams on the list with 1 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 0 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 82 bowl eligible teams for 2018 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting four teams to become bowl eligible and not receive a bid.  This list is updated through all games played on November 24th.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (1):

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia, vs. Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61% (previous odds: 64%, 54%, 49%, 55%)

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (0):

 

Already Bowl Eligible (81):  (1) Boston College, (2) Clemson, (3) Syracuse, (4) Virginia, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Houston, (7) South Florida, (8) UCF, (9) Iowa, (10) Michigan, (11) Penn State, (12) Ohio State, (13) Oklahoma, (14) Texas, (15) West Virginia, (16) FIU, (17) Louisiana Tech, (18) North Texas, (19) UAB, (20) Army, (21) Notre Dame, (22) Buffalo, (23) Western Michigan, (24) Boise State, (25) Fresno State, (26) San Diego State, (27) Utah State, (28) Utah, (29) Washington, (30) Washington State, (31) Alabama, (32) Florida, (33) Georgia, (34) Kentucky, (35) LSU, (36) Georgia Southern, (37) Troy, (38) Northern Illinois (previous odds: 73%), (39) Ohio (previous odds: 72%), (40) Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 98.5%), (41) Auburn (previous odds: 92%), (42) Wisconsin (previous odds: 99.5%), (43) Michigan State (previous odds: 98%), (44) NC State (previous odds: 99%), (45) Appalachian State (previous odds: 94.5%), (46) Mississippi State (previous odds: 94%), (47) Duke (previous odds: 66%), (48) Oregon (previous odds: 95.5%), (49) Memphis (previous odds: 75%, 80%), (50) Missouri (previous odds: 70%, 85%), (51) Texas A & M (previous odds: 93%, 92%), (52) Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 59%, 70%), (53) Arizona State (previous odds: 52%, 64%), (54) Marshall (previous odds: 97.5%, 83%), (55) Iowa State (previous odds: 96%, 98%), (56) Northwestern (previous odds: 97%, 94%), (57) UL-Monroe (previous odds: 58%, 79%), (58) Pittsburgh (previous odds: 35%, 51%), (59) Arkansas State (previous odds: 80%, 88%), (60) Temple (previous odds: 95%, 93%), (61) Georgia Tech (previous odds: 40%, 52%), (62) Stanford (previous odds: 96.5%, 95%), (63) Nevada  (previous odds: 84%, 84%), (64) California (previous odds: 57%, 56.5%), (65) Toledo (previous odds: 78%, 91%, 85%), (66) South Carolina (previous odds: 46%, 90%, 89%), (67) Brigham Young (previous odds: 67%, 65%, 82%), (68) UL-Lafayette (previous odds: 63%, 61%, 68%), (69) Miami-FL (previous odds: 90%, 74%, 60%), (70) Oklahoma State (previous odds: 68%, 55%, 53.5%), (71) Hawaii (previous odds: 76%, 75%, 75%), (72) Miami-OH (previous odds: 29%, 18%, 34%, 72%), (73) Southern Miss (previous odds: 10%, 35%, 34%, 77%), (74) Tulane (previous odds: 23%, 55.5%, 65%, 62%), (75) Wyoming (previous odds: 38%, 46%, 46%, 56%), (76) Purdue  (previous odds: 60%, 72%, 56%, 53%), (77) Vanderbilt (previous odds: 36%, 36%, 33%, 46%), (78) Wake Forest (previous odds: 44%, 39%, 55%, 44%), (79) Baylor (previous odds: 37%, 56%, 54%, 42%), (80) Minnesota (previous odds: 42%, 30%, 41%, 33%), (81) TCU (previous odds: 18%, 24%, 23%, 49%)    

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (48):  (1) Ole Miss,(2)  Liberty, (3) UConn, (4) Tulsa, (5) North Carolina, (6) Rutgers, (7) Old Dominion, (8) Rice, (9) UTEP, (10) Western Kentucky, (11) New Mexico State, (12) Bowling Green, (13) Central Michigan, (14) Kent State, (15) San Jose State, (16) Arkansas, (17) Ball State (previous odds: 4%), (18) Louisville (previous odds: 1%), (19) Nebraska (previous odds: 2%), (20) Georgia State (previous odds: 9%), (21) South Alabama (previous odds: 15%),(22) UCLA (previous odds: 0.3%), (23) UNLV (previous odds: 3.5%), (24) Oregon State (previous odds: 0.1%), (25) Kansas (previous odds: 7%, 1.5%), (26) UMass (previous odds: 0.5%, 1%), (27) New Mexico (previous odds: 11%, 4%) , (28) East Carolina (previous odds: 5%, 3%), (29) Texas State (previous odds: 0.7%, 2%), (30) UTSA (previous odds: 8%, 5%), (31) Colorado State (previous odds: 6%, 6%), (32) Air Force (previous odds: 49%, 45%, 47%), (33) Charlotte (previous odds: 24%, 23%, 18%),  (34) Navy (previous odds: 3%), (35) Illinois  (previous odds: 13%, 22%, 12%), (36) (36) Akron (previous odds: 43%, 34%, 29%, 6%), (37) Coastal Carolina (previous odds: 55%, 52.5%, 48%, 45%), (38) Texas Tech (previous odds: 65%, 63%, 62%, 58%), (39) Tennessee (previous odds: 36%, 36%, 33%, 54%), (40) Arizona (previous odds: 45%, 53%, 53%, 52%), (41) SMU (previous odds: 25%, 47%, 52%, 51%), (42) Indiana (previous odds: 41%, 41%, 44%, 47%), (43) Florida State (previous odds: 33%, 31%, 21%, 34%), (44) Maryland (previous odd: 56%, 49%, 25%, 21%), (45) Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 47%, 57%, 79%, 68%), (46) Colorado (previous odds: 54%, 48%, 45%, 36%), (47) Kansas State (previous odds: 20%, 12%, 22%, 30%), (48) Southern California (previous odds: 81%, 82%, 65%, 32%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 81

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 1 (82)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 48

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 0 (48)

Week 13 College Football Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident.  Lines are based on the current spreads from the Five Dimes online sportsbook.

Washington (+3.0) at Washington State- (Fri) 8:30
Kentucky (-17.5) at Louisville- 7:00
Ohio State (+4.0) vs. Michigan- 12:00
Wake Forest (+12.5) at Duke- 12:30
Louisiana Tech (-11.0) vs. Western Kentucky- 12:00
Georgia Southern (-11.5) at Georgia State- 2:00
Virginia Tech (+3.5) vs. Virginia- (Fri) 3:30
Rutgers (+27.0) at Michigan State- 4:00
West Virginia (+1.5) vs. Oklahoma- (Fri) 8:00
Colorado State (+14.5) at Air Force- (Th) 3:30

Last Week’s Record: 5-5, Overall Season Record: 60-60

Week 13 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current consensus lines on vegasinsider.com:

Tennessee (+3.5) at Vanderbilt- 4:00
Washington (+3.5) at Washington State- (Fri) 8:30
Ohio State (+4.0) vs. Michigan- 12:00
Virginia Tech (+4.0) vs. Virginia- (Fri) 3:30
UCLA (+5.0) vs. Stanford- 3:00
Western Michigan (+6.0) vs. Northern Illinois- (Tues) 7:00
Syracuse (+7.0) at Boston College- 12:00
Baylor (+7.0) vs. Texas Tech- 12:00
Houston (+8.0) at Memphis- (Fri) 12:00
Nebraska (+8.5) at Iowa- (Fri) 12:00
Ole Miss (+10.5) vs. Mississippi State- (Th) 7:30
Wake Forest (+13.0) at Duke- 12:30

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Oklahoma State (+4.5) over West Virginia

Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 12 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the tenth-straight season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw two years ago with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 based on APR, if all spots aren’t filled.  One other thing to consider for this season’s projections is that several teams had games cancelled due to adverse weather early in the season. Some of these teams have rescheduled other games already (see NC State, East Carolina), which are of course included in this analysis, but for the teams that haven’t (see South Carolina, Virginia Tech), this analysis only includes their odds of making a bowl based on their 11 currently scheduled games.  All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there are 24 teams on the list with 11 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 13 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 82 bowl eligible teams for 2018 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting two teams to become bowl eligible and not receive a bid.  This list is updated through all games played on November 17th.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (11):

Southern Miss- Record: 5-5 (only scheduled to play 11 games because of cancelled game); Remaining Schedule: at UTEP; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 77% (previous odds: 10%, 35%, 34%)

Miami-OH- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72% (previous odds: 29%, 18%, 34%)

Florida Atlantic- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Charlotte;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68% (previous odds: 47%, 57%, 79%)

Tulane- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% (previous odds: 23%, 55.5%, 65%)

Texas Tech- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule:vs. Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58% (previous odds: 65%, 63%, 62%)

Wyoming- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at New Mexico; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 38%, 46%, 46%)

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia, vs. Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 64%, 54%, 49%)

Tennessee- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Vanderbilt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 36%, 36%, 33%)

Purdue- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, at Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 60%, 72%, 56%)

Arizona- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 45%, 53%, 53%)

SMU- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Tulsa; ;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 25%, 47%, 52%)

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (13):

TCU- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs.Oklahoma State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 18%, 24%, 23%)

Indiana- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 41%, 41%, 44%)

Vanderbilt- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 36%, 36%, 33%)

Coastal Carolina- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 55%, 52.5%, 48%)

Wake Forest- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 44%, 39%, 55%)

Baylor- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% (previous odds: 37%, 56%, 54%)

Colorado- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36% (previous odds: 54%, 48%, 45%)

Florida State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 33%, 31%, 21%)

Minnesota- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% (previous odds: 42%, 30%, 41%)

Southern California- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32% (previous odds: 81%, 82%, 65%)

Kansas State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30% (previous odds: 20%, 12%, 22%)

Maryland- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odd: 56%, 49%, 25%)

Akron- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio, at South Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6% (previous odds: 43%, 34%, 29%)

 

Already Bowl Eligible (71):  (1) Boston College, (2) Clemson, (3) Syracuse, (4) Virginia, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Houston, (7) South Florida, (8) UCF, (9) Iowa, (10) Michigan, (11) Penn State, (12) Ohio State, (13) Oklahoma, (14) Texas, (15) West Virginia, (16) FIU, (17) Louisiana Tech, (18) North Texas, (19) UAB, (20) Army, (21) Notre Dame, (22) Buffalo, (23) Western Michigan, (24) Boise State, (25) Fresno State, (26) San Diego State, (27) Utah State, (28) Utah, (29) Washington, (30) Washington State, (31) Alabama, (32) Florida, (33) Georgia, (34) Kentucky, (35) LSU, (36) Georgia Southern, (37) Troy, (38) Northern Illinois (previous odds: 73%), (39) Ohio (previous odds: 72%), (40) Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 98.5%), (41) Auburn (previous odds: 92%), (42) Wisconsin (previous odds: 99.5%), (43) Michigan State (previous odds: 98%), (44) NC State (previous odds: 99%), (45) Appalachian State (previous odds: 94.5%), (46) Mississippi State (previous odds: 94%), (47) Duke (previous odds: 66%), (48) Oregon (previous odds: 95.5%), (49) Memphis (previous odds: 75%, 80%), (50) Missouri (previous odds: 70%, 85%), (51) Texas A & M (previous odds: 93%, 92%), (52) Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 59%, 70%), (53) Arizona State (previous odds: 52%, 64%), (54) Marshall (previous odds: 97.5%, 83%), (55) Iowa State (previous odds: 96%, 98%), (56) Northwestern (previous odds: 97%, 94%), (57) UL-Monroe (previous odds: 58%, 79%), (58) Pittsburgh (previous odds: 35%, 51%), (59) Arkansas State (previous odds: 80%, 88%), (60) Temple (previous odds: 95%, 93%), (61) Georgia Tech (previous odds: 40%, 52%), (62) Stanford (previous odds: 96.5%, 95%), (63) Nevada  (previous odds: 84%, 84%), (64) California (previous odds: 57%, 56.5%), (65) Toledo (previous odds: 78%, 91%, 85%), (66) South Carolina (previous odds: 46%, 90%, 89%), (67) Brigham Young (previous odds: 67%, 65%, 82%), (68) UL-Lafayette (previous odds: 63%, 61%, 68%), (69) Miami-FL (previous odds: 90%, 74%, 60%), (70) Oklahoma State (previous odds: 68%, 55%, 53.5%), (71) Hawaii (previous odds: 76%, 75%, 75%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (35):  (1) Ole Miss,(2)  Liberty, (3) UConn, (4) Tulsa, (5) North Carolina, (6) Rutgers, (7) Old Dominion, (8) Rice, (9) UTEP, (10) Western Kentucky, (11) New Mexico State, (12) Bowling Green, (13) Central Michigan, (14) Kent State, (15) San Jose State, (16) Arkansas, (17) Ball State (previous odds: 4%), (18) Louisville (previous odds: 1%), (19) Nebraska (previous odds: 2%), (20) Georgia State (previous odds: 9%), (21) South Alabama (previous odds: 15%),(22) UCLA (previous odds: 0.3%), (23) UNLV (previous odds: 3.5%), (24) Oregon State (previous odds: 0.1%), (25) Kansas (previous odds: 7%, 1.5%), (26) UMass (previous odds: 0.5%, 1%), (27) New Mexico (previous odds: 11%, 4%) , (28) East Carolina (previous odds: 5%, 3%), (29) Texas State (previous odds: 0.7%, 2%), (30) UTSA (previous odds: 8%, 5%), (31) Colorado State (previous odds: 6%, 6%), (32) Air Force (previous odds: 49%, 45%, 47%), (33) Charlotte (previous odds: 24%, 23%, 18%),  (34) Navy (previous odds: 3%), (35) Illinois  (previous odds: 13%, 22%, 12%)

 

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 71

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 11 (82)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 35

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 13 (48)