Brad’s 21st Annual College Football Bowl Projections

Date Bowl Teams Time Channel
1 19-Dec Cure Uconn Akron 12:00 CBSS
2 19-Dec New Mexico Louisiana Tech New Mexico 2:00 ESPN
3 19-Dec Las Vegas AF/SDSU winner UCLA 3:30 ABC
4 19-Dec Camellia Western Michigan Appalachian State 5:30 ESPN
5 19-Dec New Orleans San Jose State* Arkansas State 9:00 ESPN
6 21-Dec Miami Beach Cincinnati Western Kentucky 2:30 ESPN
7 22-Dec Famous Idaho Potato Central Michigan Boise State 3:30 ESPN
8 22-Dec Boca Raton Tulsa Toledo 7:00 ESPN
9 23-Dec Poinsettia AF/SDSU loser Ohio 4:30 ESPN
10 23-Dec GoDaddy Bowling Green Georgia Southern 8:00 ESPN
11 24-Dec Bahamas Middle Tennessee Northern Illinois 12:00 ESPN
12 24-Dec Hawaii Memphis BYU 8:00 ESPN
13 26-Dec St. Petersburg South Florida Southern Miss 11:00 ESPN
14 26-Dec Sun Louisville Utah 2:00 CBS
15 26-Dec Heart of Dallas Nevada Marshall 2:20 ESPN
16 26-Dec Pinstripe Pittsburgh Nebraska* 3:30 ABC
17 26-Dec Independence Duke Missouri* 5:45 ESPN
18 26-Dec Foster Farms Indiana Washington State 9:15 ESPN
19 28-Dec Military Navy NC State 2:30 ESPN
20 28-Dec Quick Lane Washington Minnesota* 5:00 ESPN 2
21 29-Dec Arizona Arizona Utah State 7:30 CBSS
22 29-Dec Armed Forces California Colorado State 2:00 ESPN
23 29-Dec Russell Athletic North Carolina Oklahoma State 5:30 ESPN
24 29-Dec Texas Texas Tech Texas A & M 9:00 ESPN
25 30-Dec Birmingham Temple Auburn 12:00 ESPN
26 30-Dec Belk Virginia Tech Mississippi State 3:30 ESPN
27 30-Dec Music City Penn State Arkansas 7:00 ESPN
28 30-Dec Holiday Wisconsin Oregon 10:30 ESPN
29 31-Dec Peach Notre Dame Florida State 12:00 ESPN
30 31-Dec Cotton Bowl- Semifinal Alabama Oklahoma 8:00 ESPN
31 31-Dec Orange- Semifinal Clemson Michigan State 4:00 ESPN
32 1-Jan Outback Northwestern Georgia 12:00 ESPN 2
33 1-Jan Citrus Michigan Florida 1:00 ABC
34 1-Jan Fiesta Iowa Houston 1:00 ESPN
35 1-Jan Rose Ohio State Stan./USC winner 5:00 ESPN
36 1-Jan Sugar Ole Miss TCU 8:30 ESPN
37 2-Jan Taxslayer (Gator) Miami-FL LSU 12:00 ESPN
38 2-Jan Liberty West Virginia Tennessee 3:20 ESPN
39 2-Jan Alamo Baylor Stan./USC loser 6:45 ESPN
40 2-Jan Cactus Kansas State Arizona State 10:15 ESPN
11-Jan Championship Game Semi # 1 Winner Semi # 2 Winner 8:30 ESPN
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Conference Championship Analysis- Week 13 Edition

For the seventh-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing the conference championship races.  Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bold teams have already clinched their division or conference.  Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all week 13 games.

ACC AtlanticClemson (My surprise preseason playoff pick is turning out very well.)

ACC CoastalNorth Carolina

Big Ten East- Michigan State 

Big Ten West– Iowa (The Hawkeyes are the surprise Big Ten West Champs.)

Big 12- Oklahoma (In the preseason, everyone was picking Baylor or TCU to claim this conference but I had the Sooners! Don’t believe me, here’s the proof: https://sportsentiment.com/2015/08/19/brads-2015-college-football-preview-big-12-predictions/ )

Pac-12 NorthStanford

Pac-12 SouthSouthern California

SEC East- Florida

SEC West- Alabama

AAC East- Temple

AAC West- Houston

C-USA EastWestern Kentucky

C-USA WestSouthern Miss

MAC EastBowling Green

MAC WestNorthern Illinois

MWC MountainAir Force

MWC WestSan Diego State

Sun BeltArkansas State (The Red Wolves stand alone in first place in the Sun Belt with a very winnable game left against lowly Texas State. Should the Red Wolves somehow stumble, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are waiting in the wings only a game back.)

Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 13 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the seventh-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 3 teams on the list with 1 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 2 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 76 bowl eligible teams for 2015 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled, so there will be a shortage of bowl eligible teams this season.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (1):

Kansas State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 54%, 52%, 47%, 49%)

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (2):

South Alabama- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 24% (previous odds: 52.5%, 60%, 66%, 30%)

Georgia State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% (previous odds: 6.5%, 5.5%, 9%, 15%)

Already Bowl Eligible (75):  Temple, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, Bowing Green, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, San Diego State, Stanford, Utah, UCLA, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A & M, Mississippi State, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Arkansas State (previous odds: 92%), Western Michigan (previous odds: 73%), Georgia (previous odds: 99%), NC State (previous odds: 75%), Miami-FL (previous odds: 76%), Air Force (previous odds: 95%), Washington State (previous odds: 72.5), Southern California (previous odds: 96%), Oregon (previous odds: 81%), Ohio (previous odds: 70%, 70%), Tennessee (previous odds: 97%, 99%), Louisville (previous odds: 68%, 69%), Nevada (previous odds: 51%, 54%), Texas Tech (previous odds: 58%, 56%), Arkansas (previous odds: 50.5%, 64%), South Florida (previous odds: 37%, 72%), Cincinnati (previous odds: 79%, 76%), Arizona (previous odds: 49.5%, 47.5%), New Mexico (previous odds: 39%, 47%), California (previous odds: 80%, 78%), Central Michigan (previous odds: 71%, 71%, 70%), Auburn (previous odds: 41%, 98%, 96%), West Virginia (previous odds: 67%, 82%, 93%), Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 55%, 67%, 83%), Utah State (previous odds: 89%, 75%, 67%), Akron (previous odds: 49%, 55.5%, 64%), Colorado State (previous odds: 53%, 59%, 61%), Arizona State (previous odds: 51.5%, 50.5%, 56%), UConn (previous odds: 23%, 29%, 29%), Washington (previous odds: 52%, 51.5%, 51%, 53%), Tulsa (previous odds: 47%, 49%, 48%, 47%), Virginia Tech (previous odds: 42%, 42%, 57%, 55%), Indiana (previous odds: 46%, 44%, 42%, 46%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (50):  UCF, SMU, Kansas, Charlotte, Boston College, UTSA, North Texas, UMass, Miami-OH, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Hawaii, UL-Monroe, New Mexico State, Ball State (previous odds: 1%), Fresno State (previous odds: 2.5%), Purdue (previous odds: 4%), Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 0.1%), Colorado (previous odds: 0.3%) Army (previous odds: 3%), Maryland (previous odds: 2%), Tulane (previous odds: 19%), Oregon State (previous odds: 0.5%), Kent State (previous odds: 21%, 13%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 6%, 6%), South Carolina (previous odds: 12%, 8%), Rutgers (previous odds: 45%, 41.5%), Troy (previous odds: 14%, 21%), Texas State (previous odds: 48.5%, 17%), Virginia (previous odds: 8%, 7%), Iowa State (previous odds: 7%, 5%), Syracuse (previous odds: 10%, 4%), Idaho (previous odds: 11%, 1%), Wake Forest (previous odds: 0.2%, 0.2%), UNLV (previous odds: 4.5%, 10%), Rice (previous odds: 72%, 51%, 53%), Florida International (previous odds: 29%, 31%, 22%), UTEP (previous odds: 9%, 48%, 20%), Vanderbilt (previous odds: 5.5%, 3%, 8%), Texas (previous odds: 40%, 42.5%, 21%, 21%), Missouri (previous odds: 25%, 20%, 38%, 29%), Buffalo (previous odds: 63%, 66%, 65%, 62%), Nebraska (previous odds: 5%, 25%, 35%, 35%), San Jose State (previous odds: 45.5%, 43%, 13%, 28%), Old Dominion (previous odds: 15%, 45%, 55%, 52%), Kentucky (previous odds: 56%, 55%, 52%, 54%), East Carolina (previous odds: 65%, 41%, 41%, 51%), UL-Lafayette (previous odds: 53.5%, 58%, 54%, 14 %), Minnesota (previous odds: 48%, 43.5%, 40%, 44%), Illinois (previous odds: 44%, 46%, 45%, 36%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 75

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 1 (76)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 50

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 2 (52)

Week 13 College Football Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident.  Lines are based on the current spreads according to Vegasinsider.com.

Duke (-4.0) at Wake Forest- 12:30
Kentucky (+4.0) vs. Louisville- 12:00
Mississippi State (+1.0) vs. Ole Miss- 7:15
Texas (-1.5) vs. Texas Tech- (Th) 7:30
Georgia State (-1.0) vs. Troy (Fri) 2:00
Iowa (-1.5) at Nebraska- (Fri) 3:30
Northwestern (-3.5) at Illinois- 3:30
Louisiana Tech (-6.0) vs. Southern Miss- 12:00
Syracuse (+3.0) vs. Boston College- 12:30
Baylor (-1.5) at TCU- (Fri) 7:30

Last Week’s Record: 6-4, Overall Season Record: 57-63

Week 13 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the lines on vegasinsider.com:

Syracuse (+3.0) vs. Boston College- 12:30
Kentucky (+4.0) vs. Louisville- 12:00
Old Dominion (+4.0) vs. Florida Atlantic- 12:00
Tulane (+6.5) vs. Tulsa- (Fri) 8:00
NC State (+6.5) vs. North Carolina- 3:30
Purdue (+6.5) vs. Indiana- 12:00
South Carolina (+17.5) vs. Clemson- 12:00

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: None

Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 12 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the seventh-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 18 teams on the list with 6 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 12 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 77 bowl eligible teams for 2015 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled, so as of now it appears there could be a major shortage of bowl eligible teams.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (6):

Buffalo- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UMass; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% (previous odds: 63%, 66%, 65%)

Virginia Tech- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 42%, 42%, 57%)

Kentucky- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 56%, 55%, 52%)

Washington- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 52%, 51.5%, 51%)

Old Dominion- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 15%, 45%, 55%)

East Carolina- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Cincinnati; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 65%, 41%, 41%)

 

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (12):

Kansas State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas, vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 54%, 52%, 47%)

Tulsa- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Tulane; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 47%, 49%, 48%)

Indiana- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 46%, 44%, 42%)

Minnesota- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 48%, 43.5%, 40%)

Illinois- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36% (previous odds: 44%, 46%, 45%)

Nebraska- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35% (previous odds: 5%, 25%, 35%)

South Alabama- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Southern, vs. Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30% (previous odds: 52.5%, 60%, 66%)

Missouri- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29% (previous odds: 25%, 20%, 38%)

San Jose State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 28% (previous odds: 45.5%, 43%, 13%)

Texas- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas Tech, at Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds: 40%, 42.5%, 21%)

Georgia State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Troy, at Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15% (previous odds: 6.5%, 5.5%, 9%)

UL-Lafayette- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Appalachian State, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 14% (previous odds: 53.5%, 58%, 54%)

Already Bowl Eligible (71):  Temple, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, Bowing Green, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, San Diego State, Stanford, Utah, UCLA, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A & M, Mississippi State, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Arkansas State (previous odds: 92%), Western Michigan (previous odds: 73%), Georgia (previous odds: 99%), NC State (previous odds: 75%), Miami-FL (previous odds: 76%), Air Force (previous odds: 95%), Washington State (previous odds: 72.5), Southern California (previous odds: 96%), Oregon (previous odds: 81%), Ohio (previous odds: 70%, 70%), Tennessee (previous odds: 97%, 99%), Louisville (previous odds: 68%, 69%), Nevada (previous odds: 51%, 54%), Texas Tech (previous odds: 58%, 56%), Arkansas (previous odds: 50.5%, 64%), South Florida (previous odds: 37%, 72%), Cincinnati (previous odds: 79%, 76%), Arizona (previous odds: 49.5%, 47.5%), New Mexico (previous odds: 39%, 47%), California (previous odds: 80%, 78%), Central Michigan (previous odds: 71%, 71%, 70%), Auburn (previous odds: 41%, 98%, 96%), West Virginia (previous odds: 67%, 82%, 93%), Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 55%, 67%, 83%), Utah State (previous odds: 89%, 75%, 67%), Akron (previous odds: 49%, 55.5%, 64%), Colorado State (previous odds: 53%, 59%, 61%), Arizona State (previous odds: 51.5%, 50.5%, 56%), UConn (previous odds: 23%, 29%, 29%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (39):  UCF, SMU, Kansas, Charlotte, Boston College, UTSA, North Texas, UMass, Miami-OH, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Hawaii, UL-Monroe, New Mexico State, Ball State (previous odds: 1%), Fresno State (previous odds: 2.5%), Purdue (previous odds: 4%), Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 0.1%), Colorado (previous odds: 0.3%) Army (previous odds: 3%), Maryland (previous odds: 2%), Tulane (previous odds: 19%), Oregon State (previous odds: 0.5%), Kent State (previous odds: 21%, 13%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 6%, 6%), South Carolina (previous odds: 12%, 8%), Rutgers (previous odds: 45%, 41.5%), Troy (previous odds: 14%, 21%), Texas State (previous odds: 48.5%, 17%), Virginia (previous odds: 8%, 7%), Iowa State (previous odds: 7%, 5%), Syracuse (previous odds: 10%, 4%), Idaho (previous odds: 11%, 1%), Wake Forest (previous odds: 0.2%, 0.2%), UNLV (previous odds: 4.5%, 10%), Rice (previous odds: 72%, 51%, 53%), Florida International (previous odds: 29%, 31%, 22%), UTEP (previous odds: 9%, 48%, 20%), Vanderbilt (previous odds: 5.5%, 3%, 8%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 71

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 6 (77)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 39

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 12 (51)

 

 

 

Conference Championship Analysis- Week 12 Edition

For the seventh-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing the conference championship races.  Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bold teams have already clinched their division or conference.  Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all week 12 games.

ACC AtlanticClemson (My surprise preseason playoff pick is turning out very well.)

ACC CoastalNorth Carolina

Big Ten East- Michigan State (After MSU’s shocking road win over Ohio State, Sparty has become the front runners in this division. If they beat Penn State next week at home, they clinch the Big Ten East. If they lose, then Ohio State will battle Michigan for the division crown.)

Big Ten West– Iowa (The Hawkeyes are the surprise Big Ten West Champs.)

Big 12- Oklahoma (In the preseason, I picked Oklahoma to finish with one conference loss and become the surprise Big 12 Champ. I’m going to stick with my preseason prediction and call for Oklahoma to win beat Oklahoma State and clinch the conference crown. If the Sooners do stumble in Bedlam, Baylor would clinch if they beat TCU and Texas. Oklahoma State would take the Big 12 title if both Baylor and OU falter.)

Pac-12 NorthStanford

Pac-12 SouthUCLA (The intra-city battle between USC and UCLA will be a de facto division title game next Saturday.)

SEC East- Florida

SEC West- Alabama (The Tide can clinch the division crown with a win over Auburn or an Ole Miss loss to Mississippi State. Ole Miss would take it if neither of those things happen next Saturday.)

AAC East- Temple (The Owls can clinch the division crown with a win over UConn or a USF loss to UCF. South Florida would take it if neither of those things happen next weekend.)

AAC West- Houston (The Cougars will host one-loss Navy the day after Thanksgiving in a de facto division title game.)

C-USA EastWestern Kentucky (Like the AAC West (see above), the C-USA East crown will come down to the season’s final weekend as the Hilltoppers host co-leader Marshall on the day after Thanksgiving in a de facto division championship game.)

C-USA WestLouisiana Tech (Conference USA will actually have de facto semifinal games this season, as the C-USA West championship will also be decided on Thanksgiving weekend when LA Tech hosts Southern Miss. You got to give the conference schedule-makers props for having the foresight to match the league’s top 4 teams during its final regular season weekend.)

MAC EastBowling Green

MAC WestNorthern Illinois (The Huskies can clinch the division crown for a remarkable sixth consecutive season with a win over Ohio on Tuesday night or a Toledo loss to Western Michigan on Friday. The Rockets would take it if neither of those things happen next weekend.)

MWC MountainAir Force

MWC WestSan Diego State

Sun BeltArkansas State (The Red Wolves stand alone in first place in the Sun Belt with two very winnable games left against lowly New Mexico State and Texas State. Should the Red Wolves somehow stumble, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are waiting in the wings only a game back.)