Week 12 College Football Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident.  Lines are based on the current spreads according to Vegasinsider.com.

Kentucky (-24.0) vs. Charlotte- 7:30
Georgia (-14.0) vs. Georgia Southern- 7:00
LSU (+4.0) at Ole Miss- 3:30
Pittsburgh (-3.0) vs. Louisville- 3:45
Miami-FL (-1.0) vs. Georgia Tech- 12:30
New Mexico (+2.0) vs. Colorado State- 5:30
Northwestern (+11.0) at Wisconsin- 3:30
Temple (+2.0) vs. Memphis- 12:00
South Alabama (+1.0) at Georgia State- 2:00
Purdue (+20.0) at Iowa- 12:00

Last Week’s Record: 6-4, Overall Season Record: 51-59

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Week 12 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the lines on vegasinsider.com:

Rice (+3.5) at UTSA- 7:00
LSU (+4.0) at Ole Miss- 3:30
Army (+4.5) vs. Rutgers- 12:00
Buffalo (+4.5) at Akron- 3:30
Penn State (+4.5) vs. Michigan- 12:00
Missouri (+9.0) vs. Tennessee- 7:15

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Oregon (+9.0) at Stanford

Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 11 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the seventh-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 31 teams on the list with 16 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 15 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 78 bowl eligible teams for 2015 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled, so as of now it appears there could be a major shortage of bowl eligible teams.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (16):

Auburn- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Idaho, vs. Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 96% (previous odds: 41%, 98%)

West Virginia- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas, vs. Iowa State, at Kansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 93% (previous odds: 67%, 82%)

Middle Tennessee- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Texas, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 83% (previous odds: 55%, 67%)

Central Michigan- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Kent State, vs. Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70% (previous odds: 71%, 71%)

Utah State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nevada, vs. Brigham Young; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67% (previous odds: 89%, 75%)

South Alabama- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia State, at Georgia Southern, vs. Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66% (previous odds: 52.5%, 60%)

Buffalo- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Akron, vs. UMass; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65% (previous odds: 63%, 66%)

Akron- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Buffalo, vs. Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64% (previous odds: 49%, 55.5%)

Colorado State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at New Mexico, at Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61% (previous odds: 53%, 59%)

Virginia Tech- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Carolina, at Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57% (previous odds: 42%, 42%)

Arizona State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona, at California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 51.5%, 50.5%)

Old Dominion- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Southern Miss, vs. Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 15%, 45%)

UL-Lafayette- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico State, at Appalachian State, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 53.5%, 58%)

Rice- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at UTSA, vs. Charlotte; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 72%, 51%)

Kentucky- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Charlotte, vs. Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 56%, 55%)

Washington- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon State, vs. Washington State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 52%, 51.5%)

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (15):

Tulsa- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Navy, at Tulane; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 47%, 49%)

Kansas State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa State, at Kansas, vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 54%, 52%)

Illinois- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Minnesota, vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 44%, 46%)

Indiana- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Maryland, at Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% (previous odds: 46%, 44%)

East Carolina- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at UCF, vs. Cincinnati; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41% (previous odds: 65%, 41%)

Minnesota- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Illinois, vs. Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40% (previous odds: 48%, 43.5%)

Missouri– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tennessee, at Arkansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38% (previous odds: 25%, 20%)

Nebraska- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35% (previous odds: 5%, 25%)

UConn- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Houston, at Temple; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29% (previous odds: 23%, 29%)

Florida International- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Western Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22% (previous odds: 29%, 31%)

Texas- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas Tech, at Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds: 40%, 42.5%)

UTEP- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Louisiana Tech, at North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% (previous odds: 9%, 48%)

San Jose State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Hawaii, vs. Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 13% (previous odds: 45.5%, 43%)

Georgia State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Alabama, vs. Troy, at Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9% (previous odds: 6.5%, 5.5%)

Vanderbilt- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas A & M, at Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8% (previous odds: 5.5%, 3%)

Already Bowl Eligible (62):  Temple, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, Bowing Green, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, San Diego State, Stanford, Utah, UCLA, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A & M, Mississippi State, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Arkansas State (previous odds: 92%), Western Michigan (previous odds: 73%), Georgia (previous odds: 99%), NC State (previous odds: 75%), Miami-FL (previous odds: 76%), Air Force (previous odds: 95%), Washington State (previous odds: 72.5), Southern California (previous odds: 96%), Oregon (previous odds: 81%), Ohio (previous odds: 70%, 70%), Tennessee (previous odds: 97%, 99%), Louisville (previous odds: 68%, 69%), Nevada (previous odds: 51%, 54%), Texas Tech (previous odds: 58%, 56%), Arkansas (previous odds: 50.5%, 64%), South Florida (previous odds: 37%, 72%), Cincinnati (previous odds: 79%, 76%), Arizona (previous odds: 49.5%, 47.5%), New Mexico (previous odds: 39%, 47%), California (previous odds: 80%, 78%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (23):  UCF, SMU, Kansas, Charlotte, Boston College, UTSA, North Texas, UMass, Miami-OH, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Hawaii, UL-Monroe, New Mexico State, Ball State (previous odds: 1%), Fresno State (previous odds: 2.5%), Purdue (previous odds: 4%), Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 0.1%), Colorado (previous odds: 0.3%) Army (previous odds: 3%), Maryland (previous odds: 2%), Tulane (previous odds: 19%), Oregon State (previous odds: 0.5%), Kent State (previous odds: 21%, 13%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 6%, 6%), South Carolina (previous odds: 12%, 8%), Rutgers (previous odds: 45%, 41.5%), Troy (previous odds: 14%, 21%), Texas State (previous odds: 48.5%, 17%), Virginia (previous odds: 8%, 7%), Iowa State (previous odds: 7%, 5%), Syracuse (previous odds: 10%, 4%), Idaho (previous odds: 11%, 1%), Wake Forest (previous odds: 0.2%, 0.2%), UNLV (previous odds: 4.5%, 10%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 62

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 16 (78)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 35

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 15 (50)

Conference Championship Analysis- Week 11 Edition

For the seventh-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing the conference championship races.  Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bold teams have already clinched their division or conference.  Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all week 10 games.

ACC AtlanticClemson (My surprise preseason playoff pick is turning out very well.)

ACC CoastalNorth Carolina (The Heels clinch the division crown with a road win over either NC State or Virginia Tech or a Pitt loss to either Louisville or Miami. Oddly enough, if the home team wins all of those games, then the Panthers of Pitt will get the bid to the ACC title game.)

Big Ten East- Ohio State (If Ohio State knocks off Michigan State at home next week and Michigan beats Penn State, then the Ohio State-Michigan game will be a de facto division championship game.)

Big Ten West– Iowa (The Hawkeyes clinch the division crown with a win over either Purdue or Nebraska or a Wisconsin loss to either Northwestern or Minnesota.)

Big 12- Oklahoma (In the preseason, I picked Oklahoma to finish with one conference loss and become the surprise Big 12 Champ. I’m going to stick with my preseason prediction and call Oklahoma to win out from here and not only win the Big 12 title but get a spot in the four-team playoff as well.)

Pac-12 NorthStanford (Despite the Cardinal’s heartbreaking loss to Oregon, Stanford is still in the driver’s seat for the Pac-12 North, as they will clinch the division title with a win at home over Cal on Saturday or an Oregon loss to either Southern Cal or Oregon State.) 

Pac-12 SouthUtah (The Pac-12 South race is usually one of the tightest and most exciting in college football each year and this season will be no exception. After this Saturday’s crazy action, we are down to a three horse race between Southern Cal, Utah, and UCLA. The Bruins trail the Utes and Trojans by a game at this point but they face both squads in their final two regular season matchups. Unfortunately, UCLA has to play both of these opponents on the road so I don’t think they’ll make up their current deficit. I’m actually calling for the Utes to hold on to this division crown because I think USC will pick up another loss next weekend at Oregon.)

SEC East- Florida (The Gators become the first team in the country to clinch a conference or division title this season by virtue of their narrow win over Vandy.)

SEC West- Alabama (The Tide can clinch the division crown with a win over Auburn or an Ole Miss loss to either LSU or Mississippi State)

AAC EastTemple (South Florida’s upset win over Temple on Saturday certainly made this division title race a lot more interesting. The Owls now face a must-win proposition at home against Memphis on Saturday. A loss there and USF will control their own destiny in the division race. I think the Owls will squeak by Memphis and also UConn to claim the AAC East but it will certainly not be easy.)

AAC WestHouston (The Cougars will host one-loss Navy the day after Thanksgiving in a de facto division title game. That matchup will undoubtedly be the Group of Five game of the year, but before that, the Cougars better be careful not to stumble in a trap game next weekend at UConn.)

C-USA EastWestern Kentucky (Like the AAC West (see above), the C-USA East crown will come down to the season’s final weekend as the Hilltoppers host co-leader Marshall on the day after Thanksgiving in a de facto division championship game.)

C-USA WestLouisiana Tech (Conference USA will actually have de facto semifinal games this season, as the C-USA West championship will also be decided on Thanksgiving weekend when LA Tech hosts Southern Miss. You got to give the conference schedule-makers props for having the foresight to match the league’s top 4 teams during its final regular season weekend.)

MAC EastBowling Green (The Falcons have to be considered one of the hottest teams in the country they way they have ripped through their MAC opposition so far this season. They have already clinched the MAC East title, but their toughest challenge yet comes Tuesday night against MAC West power Toledo.)

MAC WestNorthern Illinois (This division race got really wild as a result of Northern Illinois’ road upset of Toledo. Four teams still have a legitimate shot of winning this division as Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Western Michigan are all tied atop the division standings and Central Michigan is just a game back. The Chippewas have the easiest remaining schedule and own the head to head tiebreaker over NIU, but I think Northern Illinois finds a way to beat Western Michigan and Ohio at home and retain the MAC West title for the sixth consecutive season.)

MWC MountainBoise State (In a weekend full of shocking sports upsets (Western Illinois over Wisconsin in college bball, Holm over Rousey, Arkansas over LSU), New Mexico’s win as a 30 point underdog in Boise was probably the biggest. I picked New Mexico to be a surprise team this season and finally get back to a bowl game but I didn’t expect them to challenge Boise for the division championship! Nevertheless, that’s exactly what the Lobos have done however, as five teams: Air Force, Boise, New Mexico, Utah State, and Colorado State all have a shot at claiming the MWC Mountain Division. The Broncos no longer control their own destiny but I still think clinch this division by winning out and watching New Mexico drop one of its last two conference contests.)

MWC WestSan Diego State (The Aztecs will clinch this division with a win over either UNLV or Nevada or a Nevada loss to Utah State.)

Sun BeltArkansas State (The Red Wolves stand alone in first place in the Sun Belt with two very winnable games left against lowly New Mexico State and Texas State. Should the Red Wolves somehow stumble, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are waiting in the wings only a game back.)

Week 11 College Football Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident.  Lines are based on the current spreads according to Sportsbook.com.

Air Force (+1.0) vs. Utah State- 2:00
Rutgers (+9.5) vs. Nebraska- 3:30
Syracuse (+27.5) vs. Clemson- 3:30
Rice (+7.5) vs. Southern Miss- 3:30
New Mexico (+30.0) at Boise State- 10:15
Texas (+8.5) at West Virginia- 12:00
Virginia (+13.5) at Louisville- 12:30
Appalachian State (-17.5) at Idaho- 5:00
Hawaii (-4.5) vs. Fresno State- 11:00
Georgia (+1.5) at Auburn- 12:00

Last Week’s Record: 4-6, Overall Season Record: 45-55

Week 11 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the lines on vegasinsider.com:

Kentucky (+3.5) at Vanderbilt- 4:00
Central Michigan (+4.0) vs. Toledo- (Tu) 8:00
Memphis (+6.0) at Houston- 7:00
Rice (+7.5) vs. Southern Miss- 3:30
Oregon (+9.0) at Stanford- 7:30
Rutgers (+9.5) vs. Nebraska- 3:30
Iowa State (+14.0) vs. Oklahoma State- 3:30

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Kansas State (+17.5) vs. Baylor

Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 10 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the seventh-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 54 teams on the list with 24 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 30 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 75 bowl eligible teams for 2015 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled, so as of now it appears there could be a major shortage of bowl eligible teams.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (24):

Tennessee- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Texas, at Missouri, vs. Vanderbilt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99% (previous odds: 97%)

Auburn- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia, vs. Idaho, vs. Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98% (previous odds: 41%)

West Virginia- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas, at Kansas, vs. Iowa State, at Kansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 82% (previous odds: 67%)

California- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oregon State, at Stanford, vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 78% (previous odds: 80%)

Cincinnati- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulsa, at USF, at East Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 76% (previous odds: 79%)

Utah State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Air Force, vs. Nevada, vs. Brigham Young; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75% (previous odds: 89%)

South Florida- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Temple, vs. Cincinnati, at UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72% (previous odds: 37%)

Central Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Toledo, at Kent State, vs. Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 71% (previous odds: 71%)

Ohio- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kent State, vs. Ball State, at Northern Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70% (previous odds: 70%)

Louisville- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia, at Pitt, at Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 69% (previous odds: 68%)

Middle Tennessee- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Florida Atlantic, vs. North Texas, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67% (previous odds: 55%)

Buffalo- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northern Illinois, at Akron, vs. UMass; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66% (previous odds: 63%)

Arkansas- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at LSU, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Missouri; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64% (previous odds: 50.5%)

South Alabama- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Lafayette, at Georgia State, at Georgia Southern, vs. Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 52.5%)

Colorado State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UNLV, at New Mexico, at Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59% (previous odds: 53%)

UL-Lafayette- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. New Mexico State, at Appalachian State, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58% (previous odds: 53.5%)

Texas Tech- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas State, at Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 58%)

Akron- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-OH, vs. Buffalo, vs. Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55.5% (previous odds: 49%)

Kentucky- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Vanderbilt, vs. Charlotte, vs. Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 56%)

Nevada- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. San Jose State, at Utah State, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 51%)

Kansas State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Texas Tech, vs. Iowa State, at Kansas, vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 54%)

Washington- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Arizona State, at Oregon State, vs. Washington State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51.5% (previous odds: 52%)

Rice- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Miss, at UTSA, vs. Charlotte; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 72%)

Arizona State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington, vs. Arizona, at California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 50.5% (previous odds: 51.5%)

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (30):

Tulsa- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Cincinnati, vs. Navy, at Tulane; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 47%)

UTEP- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Old Dominion, vs. Louisiana Tech, at North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 9%)

Arizona- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah, at Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47.5% (previous odds: 49.5%)

New Mexico- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Boise State, vs. Colorado State, vs. Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 39%)

Illinois- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio State, at Minnesota, vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 44%)

Old Dominion- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UTEP, at Southern Miss, vs. Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 15%)

Indiana- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Michigan, at Maryland, at Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 46%)

Minnesota- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa, vs. Illinois, vs. Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43.5% (previous odds: 48%)

San Jose State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Nevada, at Hawaii, vs. Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43% (previous odds: 45.5%)

Texas- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at West Virginia, vs. Texas Tech, at Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42.5% (previous odds: 40%)

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Tech, vs. North Carolina, at Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% (previous odds: 42%)

Rutgers- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nebraska, at Army, vs. Maryland; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41.5% (previous odds: 45%)

East Carolina- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at UCF, vs. Cincinnati; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41% (previous odds: 65%)

Florida International- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Marshall, vs. Western Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31% (previous odds: 29%)

UConn- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Houston, at Temple; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29% (previous odds: 23%)

Nebraska- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers, vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25% (previous odds: 5%)

Troy- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at Georgia State, at UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds: 14%)

Missouri- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Brigham Young, vs. Tennessee, at Arkansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% (previous odds: 25%)

Texas State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia State, vs. UL-Monroe, at Idaho, at Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 17% (previous odds: 48.5%)

Kent State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio, vs. Central Michigan, at Akron; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 13% (previous odds: 21%)

UNLV- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Colorado State, vs. San Diego State, at Wyoming; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10% (previous odds: 4.5%)

South Carolina- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida, vs. Citadel, vs. Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8% (previous odds: 12%)

Virginia- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Louisville, vs. Duke, vs. Virginia Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7% (previous odds: 8%)

Georgia Tech- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia Tech, at Miami-FL, vs. Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6% (previous odds: 6%)

Georgia State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Lafayette, at Texas State, vs. South Alabama, vs. Troy, at Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5.5% (previous odds: 6.5%)

Iowa State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oklahoma State, at Kansas State, at West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5% (previous odds: 7%)

Syracuse- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Clemson, at NC State, vs. Boston College; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4% (previous odds: 10%)

Vanderbilt- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kentucky, vs. Texas A & M, at Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3% (previous odds: 5.5%)

Idaho- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Appalachian State, at Auburn, vs. Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1% (previous odds: 11%)

Wake Forest- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Notre Dame, at Clemson, vs. Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.2% (previous odds: 0.2%)

Already Bowl Eligible (51):  Temple, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, Bowing Green, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, San Diego State, Stanford, Utah, UCLA, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A & M, Mississippi State, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Arkansas State (previous odds: 92%), Western Michigan (previous odds: 73%), Georgia (previous odds: 99%), NC State (previous odds: 75%), Miami-FL (previous odds: 76%), Air Force (previous odds: 95%), Washington State (previous odds: 72.5), Southern California (previous odds: 96%), Oregon (previous odds: 81%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (23):  UCF, SMU, Kansas, Charlotte, Boston College, UTSA, North Texas, UMass, Miami-OH, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Hawaii, UL-Monroe, New Mexico State, Ball State (previous odds: 1%), Fresno State (previous odds: 2.5%), Purdue (previous odds: 4%), Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 0.1%), Colorado (previous odds: 0.3%) Army (previous odds: 3%), Maryland (previous odds: 2%), Tulane (previous odds: 19%), Oregon State (previous odds: 0.5%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 51

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 24 (75)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 23

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 30 (53)