Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 9 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the seventh-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 72 teams on the list with 31 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 41 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 73 bowl eligible teams for 2015 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled, so as of now it appears there could be a major shortage of bowl eligible teams.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (31):

Georgia- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kentucky, at Auburn, vs. Georgia Southern, at Georgia Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99%

Tennessee- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Carolina, vs. North Texas, at Missouri, vs. Vanderbilt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 97%

Southern California- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona, at Colorado, at Oregon, vs. UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 96%

Air Force- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Army, vs. Utah State, at Boise State, at New Mexico; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 95%

Arkansas State- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Appalachian State, at UL-Monroe, at New Mexico State, vs. Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 92%

Utah State- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at New Mexico, at Air Force, vs. Nevada, vs. Brigham Young; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 89%

Oregon- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. California, at Stanford, vs. Southern Cal, vs. Oregon State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 81%

California- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, vs. Oregon State, at Stanford, vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 80%

Cincinnati- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Houston, vs. Tulsa, at USF, at East Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 79%

Miami (FL)- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia, at North Carolina, vs. Georgia Tech, at Pittsburgh; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 76%

NC State- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Boston College, at Florida State, vs. Syracuse, vs. North Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75%

Western Michigan- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ball State, vs. Bowling Green, at Northern Illinois, at Toledo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 73%

Washington State- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona State, at UCLA, vs. Colorado, at Washington; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72.5%

Rice- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at UTEP, vs. Southern Miss, at UTSA, vs. Charlotte; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72%

Central Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Toledo, at Kent State, vs. Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 71%

Ohio- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kent State, vs. Ball State, at Northern Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70%

Louisville- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Syracuse, vs. Virginia, at Pitt, at Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68%

West Virginia- Record: 3-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas Tech, vs. Texas, at Kansas, vs. Iowa State, at Kansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67%

East Carolina- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. USF, at UCF, vs. Cincinnati; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65%

Buffalo- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Kent State, vs. Northern Illinois, at Akron, vs. UMass; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63%

Texas Tech- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at West Virginia, vs. Kansas State, at Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58%

Kentucky- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia, at Vanderbilt, vs. Charlotte, vs. Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56%

Middle Tennessee- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Marshall, at Florida Atlantic, vs. North Texas, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55%

Kansas State- Record: 3-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Baylor, at Texas Tech, vs. Iowa State, at Kansas, vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%

UL-Lafayette- Record: 3-4; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia State, at South Alabama, vs. New Mexico State, at Appalachian State, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53.5%

Colorado State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Wyoming, vs. UNLV, at New Mexico, at Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53%

South Alabama- Record: 3-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Idaho, vs. UL-Lafayette, at Georgia State, at Georgia Southern, vs. Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52.5%

Washington- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah, at Arizona State, at Oregon State, vs. Washington State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52%

Arizona State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Washington State, vs. Washington, vs. Arizona, at California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51.5%

Nevada- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Fresno State, vs. San Jose State, at Utah State, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51%

Arkansas- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Ole Miss, at LSU, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Missouri; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 50.5%

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (41):

Arizona- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Southern California, vs. Utah, at Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49.5%

Akron- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at UMass, at Miami-OH, vs. Buffalo, vs. Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%

Texas State- Record: 2-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico State, vs. Georgia State, vs. UL-Monroe, at Idaho, at Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48.5%

Minnesota- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio State, at Iowa, vs. Illinois, vs. Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48%

Tulsa- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. UCF, at Cincinnati, vs. Navy, at Tulane; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%

Indiana- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa, vs. Michigan, at Maryland, at Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46%

San Jose State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Brigham Young, at Nevada, at Hawaii, vs. Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45.5%

Rutgers- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Michigan, vs. Nebraska, at Army, vs. Maryland; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45%

Illinois- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Purdue, vs. Ohio State, at Minnesota, vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44%

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Tech, vs. North Carolina, at Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42%

Auburn- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Texas A & M, vs. Georgia, vs. Idaho, vs. Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41%

Texas- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas, at West Virginia, vs. Texas Tech, at Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40%

New Mexico- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah State, at Boise State, vs. Colorado State, vs. Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39%

South Florida- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at East Carolina, vs. Temple, vs. Cincinnati, at UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37%

Florida International- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Charlotte, at Marshall, vs. Western Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29%

Missouri- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Mississippi State, vs. Brigham Young, vs. Tennessee, at Arkansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25%

UConn- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Tulane, vs. Houston, at Temple; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 23%

Kent State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Buffalo, at Ohio, vs. Central Michigan, at Akron; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21%

Tulane- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UConn, at Army, at SMU, vs. Tulsa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 19%

Old Dominion- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at UTSA, vs. UTEP, at Southern Miss, vs. Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15%

Troy- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Monroe, vs. Georgia Southern, at Georgia State, at UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 14%

South Carolina- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Tennessee, vs. Florida, vs. Citadel, vs. Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12%

Idaho- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. Appalachian State, at Auburn, vs. Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 11%

Syracuse- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Louisville, vs. Clemson, at NC State, vs. Boston College; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10%

UTEP- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Rice, at Old Dominion, vs. Louisiana Tech, at North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9%

Virginia- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-FL, at Louisville, vs. Duke, vs. Virginia Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8%

Iowa State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma, vs. Oklahoma State, at Kansas State, at West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7%

Georgia State- Record: 2-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Lafayette, at Texas State, vs. South Alabama, vs. Troy, at Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6.5%

Georgia Tech- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia Tech, at Miami-FL, vs. Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%

Vanderbilt- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Florida, vs. Kentucky, vs. Texas A & M, at Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5.5%

Nebraska- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Michigan State, at Rutgers, vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5%

UNLV- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Hawaii, at Colorado State, vs. San Diego State, at Wyoming; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4.5%

Purdue- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Illinois, at Northwestern, at Iowa, vs. Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4%

Army- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Air Force, vs. Tulane, vs. Rutgers, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3%

Fresno State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nevada, at Hawaii, at Brigham Young, vs. Colorado State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2.5%

Maryland- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, at Michigan State, vs. Indiana, at Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%

Ball State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Western Michigan, at Ohio, vs. Bowling Green; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1%

Oregon State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UCLA, at California, vs. Washington, at Oregon; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.5%

Colorado (needs 7 wins)- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule vs. Stanford, vs. Southern California, at Washington State, at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.3%

Wake Forest- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Notre Dame, at Clemson, vs. Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.2%

Florida Atlantic- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Western Kentucky, vs. Middle Tennessee, at Florida, at Old Dominion; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.1%

Already Bowl Eligible (42):  Temple, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, Bowing Green, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, San Diego State, Stanford, Utah, UCLA, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A & M, Mississippi State, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (14):  UCF, SMU, Kansas, Charlotte, Boston College, UTSA, North Texas, UMass, Miami-OH, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Hawaii, UL-Monroe, New Mexico State

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 42

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 31 (73)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 14

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 41 (55)

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