Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 10 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the seventh-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 54 teams on the list with 24 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 30 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 75 bowl eligible teams for 2015 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled, so as of now it appears there could be a major shortage of bowl eligible teams.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (24):

Tennessee- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Texas, at Missouri, vs. Vanderbilt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99% (previous odds: 97%)

Auburn- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia, vs. Idaho, vs. Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98% (previous odds: 41%)

West Virginia- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas, at Kansas, vs. Iowa State, at Kansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 82% (previous odds: 67%)

California- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oregon State, at Stanford, vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 78% (previous odds: 80%)

Cincinnati- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulsa, at USF, at East Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 76% (previous odds: 79%)

Utah State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Air Force, vs. Nevada, vs. Brigham Young; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75% (previous odds: 89%)

South Florida- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Temple, vs. Cincinnati, at UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72% (previous odds: 37%)

Central Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Toledo, at Kent State, vs. Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 71% (previous odds: 71%)

Ohio- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kent State, vs. Ball State, at Northern Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70% (previous odds: 70%)

Louisville- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia, at Pitt, at Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 69% (previous odds: 68%)

Middle Tennessee- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Florida Atlantic, vs. North Texas, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67% (previous odds: 55%)

Buffalo- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northern Illinois, at Akron, vs. UMass; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66% (previous odds: 63%)

Arkansas- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at LSU, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Missouri; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64% (previous odds: 50.5%)

South Alabama- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Lafayette, at Georgia State, at Georgia Southern, vs. Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 52.5%)

Colorado State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UNLV, at New Mexico, at Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59% (previous odds: 53%)

UL-Lafayette- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. New Mexico State, at Appalachian State, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58% (previous odds: 53.5%)

Texas Tech- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas State, at Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 58%)

Akron- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-OH, vs. Buffalo, vs. Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55.5% (previous odds: 49%)

Kentucky- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Vanderbilt, vs. Charlotte, vs. Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 56%)

Nevada- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. San Jose State, at Utah State, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 51%)

Kansas State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Texas Tech, vs. Iowa State, at Kansas, vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 54%)

Washington- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Arizona State, at Oregon State, vs. Washington State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51.5% (previous odds: 52%)

Rice- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Miss, at UTSA, vs. Charlotte; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 72%)

Arizona State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington, vs. Arizona, at California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 50.5% (previous odds: 51.5%)

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (30):

Tulsa- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Cincinnati, vs. Navy, at Tulane; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 47%)

UTEP- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Old Dominion, vs. Louisiana Tech, at North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 9%)

Arizona- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah, at Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47.5% (previous odds: 49.5%)

New Mexico- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Boise State, vs. Colorado State, vs. Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 39%)

Illinois- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio State, at Minnesota, vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 44%)

Old Dominion- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UTEP, at Southern Miss, vs. Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 15%)

Indiana- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Michigan, at Maryland, at Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 46%)

Minnesota- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa, vs. Illinois, vs. Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43.5% (previous odds: 48%)

San Jose State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Nevada, at Hawaii, vs. Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43% (previous odds: 45.5%)

Texas- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at West Virginia, vs. Texas Tech, at Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42.5% (previous odds: 40%)

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Tech, vs. North Carolina, at Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% (previous odds: 42%)

Rutgers- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nebraska, at Army, vs. Maryland; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41.5% (previous odds: 45%)

East Carolina- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at UCF, vs. Cincinnati; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41% (previous odds: 65%)

Florida International- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Marshall, vs. Western Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31% (previous odds: 29%)

UConn- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Houston, at Temple; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29% (previous odds: 23%)

Nebraska- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers, vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25% (previous odds: 5%)

Troy- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at Georgia State, at UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds: 14%)

Missouri- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Brigham Young, vs. Tennessee, at Arkansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% (previous odds: 25%)

Texas State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia State, vs. UL-Monroe, at Idaho, at Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 17% (previous odds: 48.5%)

Kent State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio, vs. Central Michigan, at Akron; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 13% (previous odds: 21%)

UNLV- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Colorado State, vs. San Diego State, at Wyoming; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10% (previous odds: 4.5%)

South Carolina- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida, vs. Citadel, vs. Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8% (previous odds: 12%)

Virginia- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Louisville, vs. Duke, vs. Virginia Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7% (previous odds: 8%)

Georgia Tech- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia Tech, at Miami-FL, vs. Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6% (previous odds: 6%)

Georgia State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Lafayette, at Texas State, vs. South Alabama, vs. Troy, at Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5.5% (previous odds: 6.5%)

Iowa State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oklahoma State, at Kansas State, at West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5% (previous odds: 7%)

Syracuse- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Clemson, at NC State, vs. Boston College; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4% (previous odds: 10%)

Vanderbilt- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kentucky, vs. Texas A & M, at Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3% (previous odds: 5.5%)

Idaho- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Appalachian State, at Auburn, vs. Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1% (previous odds: 11%)

Wake Forest- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Notre Dame, at Clemson, vs. Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.2% (previous odds: 0.2%)

Already Bowl Eligible (51):  Temple, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, Bowing Green, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, San Diego State, Stanford, Utah, UCLA, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A & M, Mississippi State, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Arkansas State (previous odds: 92%), Western Michigan (previous odds: 73%), Georgia (previous odds: 99%), NC State (previous odds: 75%), Miami-FL (previous odds: 76%), Air Force (previous odds: 95%), Washington State (previous odds: 72.5), Southern California (previous odds: 96%), Oregon (previous odds: 81%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (23):  UCF, SMU, Kansas, Charlotte, Boston College, UTSA, North Texas, UMass, Miami-OH, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Hawaii, UL-Monroe, New Mexico State, Ball State (previous odds: 1%), Fresno State (previous odds: 2.5%), Purdue (previous odds: 4%), Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 0.1%), Colorado (previous odds: 0.3%) Army (previous odds: 3%), Maryland (previous odds: 2%), Tulane (previous odds: 19%), Oregon State (previous odds: 0.5%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 51

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 24 (75)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 23

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 30 (53)

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