Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 12 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the seventh-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 18 teams on the list with 6 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 12 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 77 bowl eligible teams for 2015 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled, so as of now it appears there could be a major shortage of bowl eligible teams.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (6):

Buffalo- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UMass; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% (previous odds: 63%, 66%, 65%)

Virginia Tech- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 42%, 42%, 57%)

Kentucky- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 56%, 55%, 52%)

Washington- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 52%, 51.5%, 51%)

Old Dominion- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 15%, 45%, 55%)

East Carolina- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Cincinnati; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 65%, 41%, 41%)

 

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (12):

Kansas State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas, vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 54%, 52%, 47%)

Tulsa- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Tulane; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 47%, 49%, 48%)

Indiana- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 46%, 44%, 42%)

Minnesota- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 48%, 43.5%, 40%)

Illinois- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36% (previous odds: 44%, 46%, 45%)

Nebraska- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35% (previous odds: 5%, 25%, 35%)

South Alabama- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Southern, vs. Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30% (previous odds: 52.5%, 60%, 66%)

Missouri- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29% (previous odds: 25%, 20%, 38%)

San Jose State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 28% (previous odds: 45.5%, 43%, 13%)

Texas- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas Tech, at Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds: 40%, 42.5%, 21%)

Georgia State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Troy, at Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15% (previous odds: 6.5%, 5.5%, 9%)

UL-Lafayette- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Appalachian State, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 14% (previous odds: 53.5%, 58%, 54%)

Already Bowl Eligible (71):  Temple, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, Bowing Green, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, San Diego State, Stanford, Utah, UCLA, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A & M, Mississippi State, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Arkansas State (previous odds: 92%), Western Michigan (previous odds: 73%), Georgia (previous odds: 99%), NC State (previous odds: 75%), Miami-FL (previous odds: 76%), Air Force (previous odds: 95%), Washington State (previous odds: 72.5), Southern California (previous odds: 96%), Oregon (previous odds: 81%), Ohio (previous odds: 70%, 70%), Tennessee (previous odds: 97%, 99%), Louisville (previous odds: 68%, 69%), Nevada (previous odds: 51%, 54%), Texas Tech (previous odds: 58%, 56%), Arkansas (previous odds: 50.5%, 64%), South Florida (previous odds: 37%, 72%), Cincinnati (previous odds: 79%, 76%), Arizona (previous odds: 49.5%, 47.5%), New Mexico (previous odds: 39%, 47%), California (previous odds: 80%, 78%), Central Michigan (previous odds: 71%, 71%, 70%), Auburn (previous odds: 41%, 98%, 96%), West Virginia (previous odds: 67%, 82%, 93%), Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 55%, 67%, 83%), Utah State (previous odds: 89%, 75%, 67%), Akron (previous odds: 49%, 55.5%, 64%), Colorado State (previous odds: 53%, 59%, 61%), Arizona State (previous odds: 51.5%, 50.5%, 56%), UConn (previous odds: 23%, 29%, 29%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (39):  UCF, SMU, Kansas, Charlotte, Boston College, UTSA, North Texas, UMass, Miami-OH, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Hawaii, UL-Monroe, New Mexico State, Ball State (previous odds: 1%), Fresno State (previous odds: 2.5%), Purdue (previous odds: 4%), Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 0.1%), Colorado (previous odds: 0.3%) Army (previous odds: 3%), Maryland (previous odds: 2%), Tulane (previous odds: 19%), Oregon State (previous odds: 0.5%), Kent State (previous odds: 21%, 13%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 6%, 6%), South Carolina (previous odds: 12%, 8%), Rutgers (previous odds: 45%, 41.5%), Troy (previous odds: 14%, 21%), Texas State (previous odds: 48.5%, 17%), Virginia (previous odds: 8%, 7%), Iowa State (previous odds: 7%, 5%), Syracuse (previous odds: 10%, 4%), Idaho (previous odds: 11%, 1%), Wake Forest (previous odds: 0.2%, 0.2%), UNLV (previous odds: 4.5%, 10%), Rice (previous odds: 72%, 51%, 53%), Florida International (previous odds: 29%, 31%, 22%), UTEP (previous odds: 9%, 48%, 20%), Vanderbilt (previous odds: 5.5%, 3%, 8%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 71

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 6 (77)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 39

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 12 (51)

 

 

 

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