For the tenth-straight season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 17, 2018.

ACC Atlantic– Clemson (Not surprisingly, the Tigers have clinched the ACC Atlantic for a fourth consecutive season.)

ACC Coastal– Pittsburgh (The Panthers pull off one of the greatest in-season turnarounds you’ll ever see to somehow win the ACC Coastal.  They started conference play by losing to the worst team in their division and then proceeded to go undefeated in ACC play.)

Big Ten East– Ohio State (As a result of their thrilling win over Maryland, the Bucks will play arch rival Michigan next Saturday for the Big Ten East Championship.)

Big Ten West– Northwestern (The Cinderella Cats are in the Big Ten Title Game!  Now, they have a chance to spoil either Ohio State or MIchigan’s college football playoff hopes.)

Big 12– West Virginia/Texas (As long as the Horns beat Kansas on Friday, they will get to play in the Big 12 title game against the winner of West Virginia and Oklahoma.  I’m predicting WVU wins that game at home thereby setting up an epic rematch of West Virginia and Texas.)

Pac-12 North– Washington (The Apple Cup will decide the Pac-12 North next Friday night, and because the Huskies have owned Wazzu in recent years, I am picking them to win that game to clinch a third straight Pac-12 North crown.)

Pac-12 South– Utah (The Utes are headed to the Pac-12 title game meaning that this division becomes the first in college football to have all of its members play in a conference championship game.)

SEC East– Georgia     

SEC West– Alabama (The SEC Championship Game will be exactly what everyone expected and what everyone wanted to see after last year’s national title classic.  Alabama and Georgia will play each other in postseason play again in Atlanta. This one should end up being a CFP play-in game.)

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AAC East– UCF (Please tell me how this team isn’t in consideration for the CFP playoff?  They are by far the best team in the country.)

AAC West– Houston (The Cougars tried to give up this division by losing consecutive games to SMU and Temple earlier this month.  However, after dismantling Tulane on Thursday, they got a huge break when Memphis beat SMU on Friday night. Now, Houston once again controls its own destiny and will clinch the AAC West if they beat Memphis on Friday.  A loss in that game could setup a wild four-way tie at the top between Houston, Memphis, SMU, and Tulane in which Memphis would win.)

C-USA East– Florida International (As long as FIU beats Marshall at home next Saturday, they will win the division crown.  If they falter, then Middle Tennessee will cinch the crown regardless of their result against UAB. )  

C-USA West– UAB

MAC East– Buffalo (The Bulls made this division title race a lot more interesting by getting blown out in Athens, Ohio on Wednesday night.  Nevertheless, they still just need to beat the lowly Falcons of Bowling Green on the Friday after Thanksgiving to clinch the MAC East crown.  If they somehow stumble, Miami of Ohio and Ohio are still in contention. Miami would win the division if all three teams finished tied at the top.)

MAC West– Northern Illinois (The Huskies’ clinched the division as a result of Ball State’s shocking upset win over Western Michigan.  The only thing more shocking than the result of that Ball State game was the crowd size. I counted 37 people on the television side of the field when they panned out for a wide view of Sheumann Stadium in the third quarter.)

MWC Mountain– Boise State (The Broncos battle with Utah State next Saturday will be a de facto division title game.)

MWC West– Fresno State (The Bulldogs knocked off the Aztecs on Saturday to clinch the division title for the second consecutive season.)

Sun Belt East– Appalachian State (The Mountaineers beat Georgia State this weekend to setup the Sun Belt game of the century between league powers Troy and Appalachian State.  The winner becomes the division champ and I’m predicting App to win that one at home.)

Sun Belt West– Arkansas State (The Red Wolves need to beat Texas State next Saturday and then simultaneously have UL-Monroe beat arch rival UL-Lafayette in order to clinch the division.  I am going to predict both of those things to happen to send Arkansas State to the first-ever Sun Belt Championship game.)

 

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident.  Lines are based on the current spreads from the Five Dimes online sportsbook.

NC State (-16.5) at Louisville- 12:20

Oregon (-3.5) vs. Arizona State- 10:30

Texas (-3.0) vs. Iowa State- 8:00

UCF (-7.5) vs. Cincinnati- 8:00

Southern Cal (-3.5) at UCLA- 3:30

Boston College (-1.5) at Florida State- 3:30

Oregon State (+33.5) at Washington- 4:30

Tennessee (+5.5) vs. Missouri- 3:30

Baylor (-2.0) vs. TCU- 12:00

MIddle Tennesse (+16.0) at Kentucky- 12:00

Last Week’s Record: 7-3, Overall Season Record: 55-55

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current consensus lines on vegasinsider.com:

Florida Atlantic (+3.5) at North Texas- (Th) 9:30

Wisconsin (+4.5) at Purdue- 3:30

Oklahoma State (+4.5) vs. West Virginia- 3:30

Tulsa (+5.5) at Navy- 3:30

Tennessee (+6.0) vs. Missouri- 3:30

Colorado (+7.0) vs. Utah- 1:30

SMU (+9.0) vs. Memphis- (Fri) 9:00

Arizona (+9.5) vs. Washington State- 10:30

Syracuse (+10.0) vs. Notre Dame- 2:30

Maryland (+14.5) vs. Ohio State- 12:00

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Northwestern (+10.0) over Iowa

 

For the tenth-straight season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 10, 2018.

ACC Atlantic– Clemson (Not surprisingly, the Tigers have clinched the ACC Atlantic for a fourth consecutive season.)

ACC Coastal– Pittsburgh (By virtue of their dominant win over Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Panthers just need to either beat Wake or Miami to clinch the division.  However, even if the Panthers drop both games, they will still win the Coastal if Virginia loses to either Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.)

Big Ten East– Ohio State (As long as the Buckeyes get by Maryland next Saturday, then Michigan and Ohio State will play for the Big Ten East on the final weekend of the season.  And until Michigan can prove it can beat the Buckeyes, then I’m picking Ohio State to win that game, especially at home.)

Big Ten West– Northwestern (The Cinderella Cats have clinched the Big Ten West with their win over Iowa on Saturday.  Now, they have a chance to spoil either Ohio State or MIchigan’s college football playoff hopes in the Big Ten Title Game.)

Big 12– West Virginia/Texas (Now that the Horns’ have beaten Texas Tech, I am going to pick them to win out and sneak into the Big 12 Title Game when West Virginia knocks off Oklahoma at home in the season finale.)

Pac-12 North– Washington (As long as the Huskies knock off lowly Oregon State at home next week, this year’s Apple Cup will be a de facto division title game.  Because Washington has owned Wazzu in that contest over the past few seasons, I am going to predict that Washington wins out and claims a third consecutive Pac-12 North title.)

Pac-12 South– Utah (Wow!  It seems like every weekend this division race takes a new surprising turn.  Last Saturday it seemed like the Utes had blown their chance to claim a division championship by losing not only their game to Arizona State but also their starting quarterback to a season-ending injury season.  Now, just a week later, Utah is back in the driver’s seat thanks to their thrilling victory over Oregon and USC’s upset loss to California. The Utes just need to beat Colorado next weekend and have Arizona State lose at either Oregon or Arizona in order to win their first-ever Pac-12 South Championship.)

SEC East– Georgia (The Bulldogs became the first team in college football to clinch a berth in their league’s conference title game, thanks to their dominant victory over Kentucky last weekend.)     

SEC West– Alabama (The SEC Championship Game will be exactly what everyone expected and what everyone wanted to see after last year’s national title classic.  Alabama and Georgia will play each other in postseason play again in Atlanta. This one should end up being a CFP play-in game.)

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AAC East– UCF (The defending national champion Knights have once again bowled over everyone en route to a 9-0 start.  If UCF knocks off Cincy next Saturday, then they will once again clinch the AAC East.)

AAC West– SMU (The Cougars seemed to have this division on lock two weeks ago, but after back-to-back losses, they find themselves in a three-way tie for the division lead with SMU and Tulane.  The Mustangs have the advantage at this point thanks to their head-to-head wins over both Tulane and Houston. SMU was one of my preseason surprise picks, but even I only had them as 3rd in this division.  The Mustangs are one of the leading candidates for surprise team of the year in 2018, as Phil Steele predicted them to finish 6th in this 6th team division.)

C-USA East– Florida International (Middle Tennessee is still in first place in this division holding a half game lead over FIU.  However, I predict FIU will win out and earn a shocking bid to the C-USA title game by virtue of their head-to-head tiebreaker over Middle Tennessee.)  

C-USA West– UAB (Thanks to their thrilling win over Southern Miss, the Blazers have clinched the C-USA West just two years removed from their program literally being destroyed.  Find me someone who predicted a UAB/FIU conference title game in their preseason predictions this season please!)

MAC East– Buffalo (The Bulls are just a win away from clinching the MAC East championship thanks to Miami of Ohio’s upset win over Ohio on Wednesday night.  Buffalo has to travel to Ohio this coming Wednesday, but even if they slip up there, they just need to beat lowly Bowling Green to clinch the division crown the following weekend.)

MAC West– Northern Illinois (As a result of the Huskies’ big victory over Toledo on Wednesday night, NIU just needs to beat either Miami of Ohio or Western Michigan in their final two games to clinch the division crown.)

MWC Mountain– Boise State (Thanks to their huge win on Friday night over Fresno, the Broncos simply need to beat New Mexico next weekend to setup a massive de facto division championship game against Utah State on November 24th.)

MWC West– Fresno State (This division race took a strange turn this weekend as both Fresno and San Diego State suffered upset losses.  As a result, the Wolfpack of Nevada climbed into the division race as they only sit a game behind Fresno in the conference standings.  I think the Bulldogs will knock off SDSU next weekend to clinch this division crown, but if they do somehow get knocked off at home, the season could end with a wild three-way tie between these teams.)

Sun Belt East– Appalachian State (Just as I predicted, Troy knocked off Georgia Southern on Saturday, to setup a de facto Sun Belt East Championship game, assuming App can knock off Georgia State next weekend.  I’m giving the Mountaineers a slight edge in that one since they will be hosting the Trojans, but if there is ever such a thing as a must watch Sun Belt conference football game, this will be it.)

Sun Belt West– Arkansas State (Despite only being 3-3 in conference play, the Red Wolves are only a game back in their division title race.  I am predicting the Red Wolves to beat division frontrunner UL-Monroe next week and then end the season with a win over lowly Texas State. Meanwhile, I think UL-Lafayette will lose its season finale against Monroe to send Arkansas State to the first-ever Sun Belt Championship Game.)

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the tenth-straight season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw two years ago with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 based on APR, if all spots aren’t filled.  One other thing to consider for this season’s projections is that several teams had games cancelled due to adverse weather early in the season. Some of these teams have rescheduled other games already (see NC State, East Carolina), which are of course included in this analysis, but for the teams that haven’t (see South Carolina, Virginia Tech), this analysis only includes their odds of making a bowl based on their 11 currently scheduled games.  All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there are 33 teams on the list with 16 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 17 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 80 bowl eligible teams for 2018 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting two teams to become bowl eligible and not receive a bid.  This list is updated through all games played on November 10th.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (16):

South Carolina- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. UT-Chattanooga, at Clemson, vs. Akron; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 89% (previous odds: 46%, 90%)

Toledo- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Kent State, vs. Central Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 85% (previous odds: 78%, 91%)

Brigham Young- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico State, at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 82% (previous odds: 67%, 65%)

Florida Atlantic- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at North Texas, vs. Charlotte;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 79% (previous odds: 47%, 57%)

Hawaii- Record: 6-5 (needs 7 wins); Remaining Schedule: vs. UNLV, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75% (previous odds: 76%, 75%)

UL-Lafayette- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Alabama, at UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68% (previous odds: 63%, 61%)

Southern California- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at UCLA, vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67% (previous odds: 81%, 82%)

Tulane- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Houston, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65% (previous odds: 23%, 55.5%)

Texas Tech- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas State, vs. Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% (previous odds: 65%, 63%)

Miami (FL)- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia Tech, vs. Pittsburgh; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 90%, 74%)

Purdue- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, at Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 60%, 72%)

Wake Forest- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Pittsburgh, at Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 44%, 39%)

Baylor- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. TCU, vs. Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 37%, 56%)

Oklahoma State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. West Virginia, at TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53.5% (previous odds: 68%, 55%)

Arizona- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Washington State, vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 45%, 53%)

SMU- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Memphis, at Tulsa; ;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 25%, 47%)

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (17):

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-5 (only scheduled to play 11 games unless they reschedule cancelled game); Remaining Schedule: vs. Miami-FL, vs. Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 64%, 54%)

Coastal Carolina- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 55%, 52.5%)

Air Force- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule:, at Wyoming, vs. Colorado State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 49%, 45%)

Wyoming- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Air Force, at New Mexico; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 38%, 46%)

Colorado- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah, at California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 54%, 48%)

Indiana- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Michigan, vs. Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 41%, 41%)

Minnesota- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northwestern, at Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41% (previous odds: 42%, 30%)

Southern Miss- Record: 4-5 (only scheduled to play 11 games unless they reschedule cancelled game); Remaining Schedule: vs. Louisiana Tech, at UTEP; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 10%, 35%)

Vanderbilt- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% (previous odds: 36%, 36%)

Miami-OH- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Northern Illinois, vs. Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 29%, 18%)

Akron- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Bowling Green, at Ohio, at South Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29% (previous odds: 43%, 34%)

Maryland- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio State, at Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25% (previous odd: 56%, 49%)

TCU- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Baylor, vs. Oklahoma State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 23% (previous odds: 18%, 24%)

Kansas State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas Tech, at Iowa State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22% (previous odds: 20%, 12%)

Florida State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Boston College, vs. Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds: 33%, 31%)

Charlotte- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. FIU, at Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18% (previous odds: 24%, 23%)

Illinois- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa, at Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12% (previous odds: 13%, 22%)

Already Bowl Eligible (64):  Boston College, Clemson, Syracuse, Virginia, Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida, UCF, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, FIU, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, UAB, Army, Notre Dame, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State, Utah, Washington, Washington State, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Georgia Southern, Troy, Northern Illinois (previous odds: 73%), Ohio (previous odds: 72%), Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 98.5%), Auburn (previous odds: 92%), Wisconsin (previous odds: 99.5%), Michigan State (previous odds: 98%), NC State (previous odds: 99%), Appalachian State (previous odds: 94.5%), Mississippi State (previous odds: 94%), Duke (previous odds: 66%), Oregon (previous odds: 95.5%), Memphis (previous odds: 75%, 80%), Missouri (previous odds: 70%, 85%), Texas A & M (previous odds: 93%, 92%), Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 59%, 70%), Arizona State (previous odds: 52%, 64%), Marshall (previous odds: 97.5%, 83%), Iowa State (previous odds: 96%, 98%), Northwestern (previous odds: 97%, 94%), UL-Monroe (previous odds: 58%, 79%), Pittsburgh (previous odds: 35%, 51%), Arkansas State (previous odds: 80%, 88%), Temple (previous odds: 95%, 93%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 40%, 52%), Stanford (previous odds: 96.5%, 95%), Nevada  (previous odds: 84%, 84%), California (previous odds: 57%, 56.5%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (33):  Ole Miss, Liberty, UConn, Tulsa, North Carolina, Rutgers, Old Dominion, Rice, UTEP, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Kent State, San Jose State, Arkansas, Ball State (previous odds: 4%), Louisville (previous odds: 1%), Nebraska (previous odds: 2%), Georgia State (previous odds: 9%), South Alabama (previous odds: 15%), Navy (previous odds: 3%), UCLA (previous odds: 0.3%), UNLV (previous odds: 3.5%), Oregon State (previous odds: 0.1%), Kansas (previous odds: 7%, 1.5%), UMass (previous odds: 0.5%, 1%), New Mexico (previous odds: 11%, 4%) , East Carolina (previous odds: 5%, 3%), Texas State (previous odds: 0.7%, 2%), UTSA (previous odds: 8%, 5%), Colorado State (previous odds: 6%, 6%),

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 64

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 16 (80)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 33

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 17 (50)

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident.  Lines are based on the current spreads from the Five Dimes online sportsbook.

Syracuse (-20.5) vs. Louisville- (Fri) 7:00

Ohio State (-3.5) at Michigan State- 12:00

West Virginia (-13.5) vs. TCU- 12:00

Northwestern (+10.0) at Iowa- 3:30

Washington State (-6.0) at Colorado- 3:30

New Mexico (+14.0) at Air Force- 3:30

Illinois (+17.5) at Nebraska- 12:00

Florida State (+18.0) at Notre Dame- 7:30

Boise State (+2.5) vs. Fresno State- (Fri) 10:15

Troy (Pick) at Georgia Southern- 1:00

Last Week’s Record: 5-5, Overall Season Record: 48-52

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current consensus lines on vegasinsider.com:

Oregon (+3.5) at Utah- 5:30

Tennessee (+4.0) vs. Kentucky- 3:30

California (+5.5) at Southern Cal- 10:30

Wisconsin (+8.0) at Penn State- 12:00

Northwestern (+10.0) at Iowa- 3:30

North Carolina (+10.5) at Duke- 12:20

UCLA (+12.5) at Arizona State- 2:00

New Mexico (+13.5) at Air Force- 3:30

Illinois (+17.5) at Nebraska- 12:00

Florida State (+18.0) at Notre Dame- 7:30

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Baylor (+8.0) over Oklahoma State