Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 11 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the tenth-straight season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw two years ago with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 based on APR, if all spots aren’t filled.  One other thing to consider for this season’s projections is that several teams had games cancelled due to adverse weather early in the season. Some of these teams have rescheduled other games already (see NC State, East Carolina), which are of course included in this analysis, but for the teams that haven’t (see South Carolina, Virginia Tech), this analysis only includes their odds of making a bowl based on their 11 currently scheduled games.  All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there are 33 teams on the list with 16 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 17 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 80 bowl eligible teams for 2018 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting two teams to become bowl eligible and not receive a bid.  This list is updated through all games played on November 10th.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (16):

South Carolina- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. UT-Chattanooga, at Clemson, vs. Akron; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 89% (previous odds: 46%, 90%)

Toledo- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Kent State, vs. Central Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 85% (previous odds: 78%, 91%)

Brigham Young- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico State, at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 82% (previous odds: 67%, 65%)

Florida Atlantic- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at North Texas, vs. Charlotte;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 79% (previous odds: 47%, 57%)

Hawaii- Record: 6-5 (needs 7 wins); Remaining Schedule: vs. UNLV, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75% (previous odds: 76%, 75%)

UL-Lafayette- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Alabama, at UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68% (previous odds: 63%, 61%)

Southern California- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at UCLA, vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67% (previous odds: 81%, 82%)

Tulane- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Houston, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65% (previous odds: 23%, 55.5%)

Texas Tech- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas State, vs. Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% (previous odds: 65%, 63%)

Miami (FL)- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia Tech, vs. Pittsburgh; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 90%, 74%)

Purdue- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, at Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 60%, 72%)

Wake Forest- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Pittsburgh, at Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 44%, 39%)

Baylor- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. TCU, vs. Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 37%, 56%)

Oklahoma State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. West Virginia, at TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53.5% (previous odds: 68%, 55%)

Arizona- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Washington State, vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 45%, 53%)

SMU- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Memphis, at Tulsa; ;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 25%, 47%)

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (17):

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-5 (only scheduled to play 11 games unless they reschedule cancelled game); Remaining Schedule: vs. Miami-FL, vs. Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 64%, 54%)

Coastal Carolina- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 55%, 52.5%)

Air Force- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule:, at Wyoming, vs. Colorado State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 49%, 45%)

Wyoming- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Air Force, at New Mexico; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 38%, 46%)

Colorado- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah, at California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 54%, 48%)

Indiana- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Michigan, vs. Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 41%, 41%)

Minnesota- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northwestern, at Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41% (previous odds: 42%, 30%)

Southern Miss- Record: 4-5 (only scheduled to play 11 games unless they reschedule cancelled game); Remaining Schedule: vs. Louisiana Tech, at UTEP; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 10%, 35%)

Vanderbilt- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% (previous odds: 36%, 36%)

Miami-OH- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Northern Illinois, vs. Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 29%, 18%)

Akron- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Bowling Green, at Ohio, at South Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29% (previous odds: 43%, 34%)

Maryland- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio State, at Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25% (previous odd: 56%, 49%)

TCU- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Baylor, vs. Oklahoma State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 23% (previous odds: 18%, 24%)

Kansas State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas Tech, at Iowa State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22% (previous odds: 20%, 12%)

Florida State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Boston College, vs. Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds: 33%, 31%)

Charlotte- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. FIU, at Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18% (previous odds: 24%, 23%)

Illinois- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa, at Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12% (previous odds: 13%, 22%)

Already Bowl Eligible (64):  Boston College, Clemson, Syracuse, Virginia, Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida, UCF, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, FIU, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, UAB, Army, Notre Dame, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State, Utah, Washington, Washington State, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Georgia Southern, Troy, Northern Illinois (previous odds: 73%), Ohio (previous odds: 72%), Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 98.5%), Auburn (previous odds: 92%), Wisconsin (previous odds: 99.5%), Michigan State (previous odds: 98%), NC State (previous odds: 99%), Appalachian State (previous odds: 94.5%), Mississippi State (previous odds: 94%), Duke (previous odds: 66%), Oregon (previous odds: 95.5%), Memphis (previous odds: 75%, 80%), Missouri (previous odds: 70%, 85%), Texas A & M (previous odds: 93%, 92%), Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 59%, 70%), Arizona State (previous odds: 52%, 64%), Marshall (previous odds: 97.5%, 83%), Iowa State (previous odds: 96%, 98%), Northwestern (previous odds: 97%, 94%), UL-Monroe (previous odds: 58%, 79%), Pittsburgh (previous odds: 35%, 51%), Arkansas State (previous odds: 80%, 88%), Temple (previous odds: 95%, 93%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 40%, 52%), Stanford (previous odds: 96.5%, 95%), Nevada  (previous odds: 84%, 84%), California (previous odds: 57%, 56.5%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (33):  Ole Miss, Liberty, UConn, Tulsa, North Carolina, Rutgers, Old Dominion, Rice, UTEP, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Kent State, San Jose State, Arkansas, Ball State (previous odds: 4%), Louisville (previous odds: 1%), Nebraska (previous odds: 2%), Georgia State (previous odds: 9%), South Alabama (previous odds: 15%), Navy (previous odds: 3%), UCLA (previous odds: 0.3%), UNLV (previous odds: 3.5%), Oregon State (previous odds: 0.1%), Kansas (previous odds: 7%, 1.5%), UMass (previous odds: 0.5%, 1%), New Mexico (previous odds: 11%, 4%) , East Carolina (previous odds: 5%, 3%), Texas State (previous odds: 0.7%, 2%), UTSA (previous odds: 8%, 5%), Colorado State (previous odds: 6%, 6%),

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 64

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 16 (80)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 33

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 17 (50)

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