Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 13 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the tenth-straight season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw two years ago with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 based on APR, if all spots are not filled.  All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there is one teams on the list with 1 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 0 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 82 bowl eligible teams for 2018 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting four teams to become bowl eligible and not receive a bid.  This list is updated through all games played on November 24th.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (1):

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia, vs. Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61% (previous odds: 64%, 54%, 49%, 55%)

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (0):

 

Already Bowl Eligible (81):  (1) Boston College, (2) Clemson, (3) Syracuse, (4) Virginia, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Houston, (7) South Florida, (8) UCF, (9) Iowa, (10) Michigan, (11) Penn State, (12) Ohio State, (13) Oklahoma, (14) Texas, (15) West Virginia, (16) FIU, (17) Louisiana Tech, (18) North Texas, (19) UAB, (20) Army, (21) Notre Dame, (22) Buffalo, (23) Western Michigan, (24) Boise State, (25) Fresno State, (26) San Diego State, (27) Utah State, (28) Utah, (29) Washington, (30) Washington State, (31) Alabama, (32) Florida, (33) Georgia, (34) Kentucky, (35) LSU, (36) Georgia Southern, (37) Troy, (38) Northern Illinois (previous odds: 73%), (39) Ohio (previous odds: 72%), (40) Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 98.5%), (41) Auburn (previous odds: 92%), (42) Wisconsin (previous odds: 99.5%), (43) Michigan State (previous odds: 98%), (44) NC State (previous odds: 99%), (45) Appalachian State (previous odds: 94.5%), (46) Mississippi State (previous odds: 94%), (47) Duke (previous odds: 66%), (48) Oregon (previous odds: 95.5%), (49) Memphis (previous odds: 75%, 80%), (50) Missouri (previous odds: 70%, 85%), (51) Texas A & M (previous odds: 93%, 92%), (52) Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 59%, 70%), (53) Arizona State (previous odds: 52%, 64%), (54) Marshall (previous odds: 97.5%, 83%), (55) Iowa State (previous odds: 96%, 98%), (56) Northwestern (previous odds: 97%, 94%), (57) UL-Monroe (previous odds: 58%, 79%), (58) Pittsburgh (previous odds: 35%, 51%), (59) Arkansas State (previous odds: 80%, 88%), (60) Temple (previous odds: 95%, 93%), (61) Georgia Tech (previous odds: 40%, 52%), (62) Stanford (previous odds: 96.5%, 95%), (63) Nevada  (previous odds: 84%, 84%), (64) California (previous odds: 57%, 56.5%), (65) Toledo (previous odds: 78%, 91%, 85%), (66) South Carolina (previous odds: 46%, 90%, 89%), (67) Brigham Young (previous odds: 67%, 65%, 82%), (68) UL-Lafayette (previous odds: 63%, 61%, 68%), (69) Miami-FL (previous odds: 90%, 74%, 60%), (70) Oklahoma State (previous odds: 68%, 55%, 53.5%), (71) Hawaii (previous odds: 76%, 75%, 75%), (72) Miami-OH (previous odds: 29%, 18%, 34%, 72%), (73) Southern Miss (previous odds: 10%, 35%, 34%, 77%), (74) Tulane (previous odds: 23%, 55.5%, 65%, 62%), (75) Wyoming (previous odds: 38%, 46%, 46%, 56%), (76) Purdue  (previous odds: 60%, 72%, 56%, 53%), (77) Vanderbilt (previous odds: 36%, 36%, 33%, 46%), (78) Wake Forest (previous odds: 44%, 39%, 55%, 44%), (79) Baylor (previous odds: 37%, 56%, 54%, 42%), (80) Minnesota (previous odds: 42%, 30%, 41%, 33%), (81) TCU (previous odds: 18%, 24%, 23%, 49%)    

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (48):  (1) Ole Miss,(2)  Liberty, (3) UConn, (4) Tulsa, (5) North Carolina, (6) Rutgers, (7) Old Dominion, (8) Rice, (9) UTEP, (10) Western Kentucky, (11) New Mexico State, (12) Bowling Green, (13) Central Michigan, (14) Kent State, (15) San Jose State, (16) Arkansas, (17) Ball State (previous odds: 4%), (18) Louisville (previous odds: 1%), (19) Nebraska (previous odds: 2%), (20) Georgia State (previous odds: 9%), (21) South Alabama (previous odds: 15%),(22) UCLA (previous odds: 0.3%), (23) UNLV (previous odds: 3.5%), (24) Oregon State (previous odds: 0.1%), (25) Kansas (previous odds: 7%, 1.5%), (26) UMass (previous odds: 0.5%, 1%), (27) New Mexico (previous odds: 11%, 4%) , (28) East Carolina (previous odds: 5%, 3%), (29) Texas State (previous odds: 0.7%, 2%), (30) UTSA (previous odds: 8%, 5%), (31) Colorado State (previous odds: 6%, 6%), (32) Air Force (previous odds: 49%, 45%, 47%), (33) Charlotte (previous odds: 24%, 23%, 18%),  (34) Navy (previous odds: 3%), (35) Illinois  (previous odds: 13%, 22%, 12%), (36) (36) Akron (previous odds: 43%, 34%, 29%, 6%), (37) Coastal Carolina (previous odds: 55%, 52.5%, 48%, 45%), (38) Texas Tech (previous odds: 65%, 63%, 62%, 58%), (39) Tennessee (previous odds: 36%, 36%, 33%, 54%), (40) Arizona (previous odds: 45%, 53%, 53%, 52%), (41) SMU (previous odds: 25%, 47%, 52%, 51%), (42) Indiana (previous odds: 41%, 41%, 44%, 47%), (43) Florida State (previous odds: 33%, 31%, 21%, 34%), (44) Maryland (previous odd: 56%, 49%, 25%, 21%), (45) Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 47%, 57%, 79%, 68%), (46) Colorado (previous odds: 54%, 48%, 45%, 36%), (47) Kansas State (previous odds: 20%, 12%, 22%, 30%), (48) Southern California (previous odds: 81%, 82%, 65%, 32%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 81

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 1 (82)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 48

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 0 (48)

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