Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season. This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 20th annual college football preview guide which will contain 20 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record. These records include conference title games but exclude bowl games, which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog. The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility this season and the one marked in italics is my predicted conference champion.. Without further ado, here are my predictions for the Big 12 in 2026, where I am surprisingly picking three teams in this league to make it to this year’s College Football Playoff.

1	Texas Tech (11-2, 8-1)– regular season conference champion / conference runner-up / CFP # 10 seed

Last Year’s Record: 12-2 (My 2025 prediction: 10-2)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Arizona State (October 17)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Baylor (November 21)

Bottom Line: The defending league champions are again the most talented team from top to bottom in the Big 12, thanks to the massive NIL resources that have emerged in Lubbock. With that being said, there are some major questions at quarterback after the Red Raiders failed to find an extra year of eligibility for projected starter Brendan Sorsby. This squad also has to replace two of the best defenders in the country in Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey. Expect another dominant season in Lubbock, but there are enough question marks here for me to call for them to lose a couple of games in 2026, including the Big 12 title game to the team featured below.

———————————————————————————————————–

1	TCU (11-2, 7-2)– conference champion / CFP # 9 seed

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2025 prediction: 10-2)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. BYU (October 3)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Baylor (October 17)

Bottom Line: Everybody knew that after TCU’s magical 2022 run to the national title game there would be some backslide for the Frogs. This program has yet to put together a 10 win season since that one but after back-to-back nine win campaigns, Sonny Dykes’ squad seems ready to take the next step in 2026. The Frogs get to play five conference home games this year and also bring in Harvard’s all-time passing leader, Jaden Crag, to take over at quarterback. TCU will also be extremely talented at the other skill positions, as 3rd team all-Big 12 receiver Jordan Dwyer returns along with running back Jeremy Payne who averaged almost five yards per carry last season. On the other side of the ball, the Frogs return three experienced starters on the defensive line and should be just fine in the secondary as well, led by a pair of all-conference safeties in Jamel Johnson (2nd team Big 12 last year) and Jacob Fields (1st team all C-USA last season at Louisiana Tech). I think it is time for Sonny Dykes to get this program back to the College Football Playoff in 2026, which is why TCU is my # 1 surprise team in the country this season.

———————————————————————————————————–

3	BYU (10-2, 7-2)– CFP # 11 seed

Last Year’s Record: 12-2 (My 2025 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Notre Dame (October 17)- this will be by far the Irish’s toughest road test of the season

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UCF (October 24)- this is a major letdown spot for the Cougars the week after beating the Fighting Irish

Bottom Line: The Cougars fell just short of the College Football Playoff last year, as their only two losses in 2025 came against league rival Texas Tech. This year, BYU avoids the Red Raiders in the regular season while also returning their starting quarterback, leading rusher, leading tackler, and ten other starters from last year’s 12 win squad. I am again calling for Kalani Sitake’s crew to fall just short of a Big 12 title in 2026, but to sneak into the College Football Playoff with an at-large bid thanks to an upset win over Notre Dame in mid-October.

———————————————————————————————————–

3	Kansas State (10-2, 7-2)

Last Year’s Record: 6-6 (My 2025 prediction: 8-4)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Arizona (November 21)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Arizona State (November 28)

Bottom Line: After four straight 8 to 10 win seasons, the Wildcats took a step back last year largely because of a 2-5 record in one score games. Kansas State should have some progression towards the mean this season in terms of results in close games, and they also return four year starter Avery Johnson at quarterback as well as their leading rusher in Joe Jackson. Expect a major resurgence this year in Manhattan, but I am calling for this team to fall just short of a conference title and a CFP bid.

———————————————————————————————————–

5	Houston (9-3, 6-3)

Last Year’s Record: 10-3 (My 2025 prediction: 8-4)- the Cougars were my # 6 surprise team in the country last year and I was spot-on with my forecast of their meteoric rise

Positional Strength: Defensive Backfield

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Utah (October 24)- the Cougars are 5-0 all-time versus the Utes!

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at West Virginia (November 21)- late season trips to Morgantown are always dangerous for teams with conference title and/or national title aspirations.

Bottom Line: I correctly picked the Cougars to be one of the top surprise teams last year, as they able to take a huge step forward last year thanks to an experienced lineup which featured 16 returning starters, a positive turnover margin, and a fairly clean bill of health. This season, Houston won’t be sneaking up on anyone like they did in 2025, but they still return a stellar quarterback in Connor Weigman, arguably the best returning receiver in the league in Amare Thomas, and 9 other starters from last season. They do lose 1,000 yard rusher Dean Connors and their top two tacklers from 2025, but Willie Fritz is one of the most underrated coaches in the country and I think he’ll find a way to 8 or 9 wins again in 2026.

———————————————————————————————————–

5	Arizona State (8-4, 6-3)

Last Year’s Record: 8-5 (My 2025 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Kansas State (October 24)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Arizona (November 28)

Bottom Line: The Sun Devils’ seasons in 2024 and 2025 are the perfect examples of how turnover margin typically makes or breaks a team season. In 2024, Arizona State was a remarkable +14 in turnover margin which helped them reach the College Football Playoff that season. In 2025, the Sun Devils were a -6 in turnover margin and ended up losing five games despite being the preseason favorite to win the league. This year, I expect the pendulum to swing back into the middle of those two extremes and for ASU to have a good, but not great season, this fall. ASU loses a lot from last year including multi-year starting quarterback Sam Leavitt (who transferred to LSU), stud receiver Jordyn Tyson (who now plays in the NFL), and their top three tacklers from 2025. However, Dillingham always does well in the portal so I think ASU will still have enough “dudes” on both sides of the ball to be successful in this year’s Big 12.

———————————————————————————————————–

7	Baylor (8-4, 5-4)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2025 prediction: 9-4)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Auburn (September 5)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UCF (October 30)

Bottom Line: The Baylor Bears are on my list of surprise teams in 2026, as I expect them to take a major step forward after last year’s underwhelming 5-7 mark. Dave Aranda has seemed to alternate good and bad seasons during his 7 year tenure in Waco, so using that logic the Bears should be back on the upswing. Aranda did a great job in the offseason using the portal to upgrade their talent on both sides of the ball, especially at quarterback where D.J. Lagway comes in after a season and a half of being the starter at Florida. I think Lagway finds more success in the Big 12 against a lighter group of defenses than he had in the SEC, and Baylor climbs back into the top half of the league this season.

———————————————————————————————————–

7	Arizona (8-4, 5-4)

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2025 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Arizona State (November 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. TCU (November 7)

Bottom Line: I was extremely skeptical of the Brett Brennan hire in Tucson, especially after a 4-8 inaugural season in which star quarterback Noah Fifita struggled mightily. However, Fifita and the Wildcats bounced back last season and put together an impressive 9-4 campaign that included a five game winning streak to end the regular season. Fifita returns for his senior season to complete an extremely rare stint as a four year starting quarterback at the same school. He does lose a lot of weapons from last year with the departure of his top three pass catchers and the team’s leading rusher, but Seth Doege is a good enough offensive coordinator to put Fifita in situations in which he will continue to flourish. A brutal schedule which features road games against most all of the league’s top teams (at Kansas State, Texas Tech, and BYU) will keep this team from doing something special this season, but the Wildcats will still be really good with Fifita at the helm.

———————————————————————————————————–

7	Utah (7-5, 5-4)

Last Year’s Record: 11-2 (My 2025 prediction: 11-2)- absolutely nailed my prediction for the Utes in 2025!

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Cincinnati (October 31)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Houston (October 24)

Bottom Line: We have talked about several of my surprise teams in this article so far (TCU, Kansas State, and Baylor), but now it is time to look at the other side of the coin, as the Utes are my # 2 disappointment team in the country in 2026. The loss of head coach Kyle Whittingham can’t be understated, as he was the guiding force behind this program’s success for the past 20 seasons. Morgan Scalley may do just fine as his replacement, but it is always difficult replacing a legend, especially in a season where they are having to replace their entire offensive line, which fueled the # 2 rushing attack in the country last season. Expect a significant step back this year in Salt Lake City.

———————————————————————————————————–

10	UCF (7-5, 4-5)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2025 prediction: 5-7)- absolutely spot-on preseason Big 12 prediction from last season!

Positional Strength: Defensive Backfield

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. BYU (October 24)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Kansas (November 7)

Bottom Line: Scott Frost had a lackluster first season in his second stint as UCF head coach, leading the Knights to a 5-7 record last year. I do think they take a step forward this season, as they bring in last year’s Sun Belt Player of the Year in quarterback Alonza Barrett who will have three returning starts at receiver to throw to. UCF also has the benefit of playing five Big 12 home games in 2026 and will not have to play the defending league champs, Texas Tech, at all. Put it all together, and I think Scott Frost gets back to his first bowl game since leading the Knights to their 2017 national championship win in the Peach Bowl over Auburn (yes, it has been that long!).

———————————————————————————————————–

10	West Virginia (6-6, 4-5)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2025 prediction: 2-10)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Houston (November 21)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Iowa State (October 3)

Bottom Line: I had extremely low expectations for Rich Rod in his first season back in Morgantown last year, as it usually has taken a few seasons to get his offense going at every job he has taken throughout his 40 year coaching career. The Mountaineers did, in fact, struggle through a 4-8 campaign last fall, but there were some impressive glimmers of hope along the way including an early season upset against Pitt the Backyard Brawl and a late season road shocker against a top 25 Houston squad. I think West Virginia takes a step forward this season, as they bring in one of the best running backs in the country in Jacksonville State’s Cam Cook while also upgrading their quarterback play with Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins. Rich Rod’s group isn’t ready to compete for a Big 12 title just yet, but I think a bowl game is on the horizon for WVU in 2026.

———————————————————————————————————–

12	Cincinnati (5-7, 2-7)

Last Year’s Record: 7-6 (My 2025 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Iowa State (November 14)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at West Virginia (October 17)

Bottom Line: Rarely, have you seen head coach at a Power 4 school improve his team’s win total in three consecutive seasons with less fanfare than Scott Satterfield has in his first three years at Cincinnati. He went from 3 wins to 5 wins to 7 wins last year but no one seemed to notice or care. One of the main reasons why is that in each of the past two seasons, the Bearcats ended their year in a tailspin, as they dropped their last five games of the season in both 2024 and 2025. This year, I am calling for Cincy to again struggle down the stretch by losing 7 of their final 9 games in what may be Satterfield’s swan song with this program. They Bearcats lose a ton from last year’s squad including their starting quarterback, top four rushers, top five pass catchers, and four of their five leading tacklers. Moreover, the Bearcats must navigate an unfavorable league schedule that only features four conference home games and involves them playing most of their winnable Big 12 games on the road.

———————————————————————————————————–

12	Oklahoma State (3-9, 2-7)

Last Year’s Record: 1-11 (My 2025 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Iowa State (October 31)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Tulsa (September 5)- watch out for this in-state shocker in week 1!

Bottom Line: It is unbelievable how far this program fell in Mike Gundy’s last two years in Stillwater, and while some people are expecting a major resurgence for the Cowboys in year 1 under Eric Morris, I am just not seeing it. Morris comes from North Texas where his offenses able to put a ton of points up against AAC defenses. He now brings with him 21 players from that Mean Green roster, including star quarterback Drew Mestemaker, in hopes of recreating that same success in the Big 12. The first issue I see with this strategy is that the defenses in the Big 12 will be significantly better than the ones North Texas faced in the American. Also, several of these North Texas transfers come from the Mean Green’s defense, which ranked 130th against the run and 77th overall last year. I could be wrong, but I just don’t see a lot of these guys making an immediate impact at this level, the way Cignetti was able to do when he brought his James Madison kids with him to Indiana. It seems like a lot of teams may try to replicate the Cignetti model of success and few will actually succeed at it. With that being said, the Pokes will do better than last year’s dismal 2025 campaign that concluded with an 11 game losing streak, as they will be able to out score a few of their opponents in 2026.

———————————————————————————————————–

12	Colorado (3-9, 2-7)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2025 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UCF (November 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Northwestern (September 19)

Bottom Line: The Buffs had an impressive nine win season with Shadeur Sanders at quarterback and Travis Hunter playing on both sides of the ball, but the rest of Sanders’ controversial tenure in Boulder has been abysmal. Most recently, Colorado stumbled to a 3-9 record in 2025 that only featured one win over a Power 4 program. The Buffs highly regarded freshman quarterback Julian Lewis did show some promise in limited action last season and should take a step forward in his first year as a starter in 2026. The issue is that Colorado has once again revamped its entire roster with transfers leaving little to no continuity on defense, along the offensive line, or in the skill positions. It is just hard to win like that especially when most of the guys you are bringing in aren’t exactly world beaters (0 five star transfers this year and only 3 four stars). The saddest part about this whole saga is that I don’t think Deion is going to be a candidate for his dream job at Florida State when it likely comes open at the end of this season, due to his lackluster work in Boulder.

———————————————————————————————————–

15	Kansas (3-9, 1-8)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2025 prediction: 5-7)- the Jayhawks were one of the four teams from this league that I correctly picked their final record in the preseason

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UCF (November 7)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Oklahoma State (November 28)

Bottom Line: Expect a significant dropoff for this team, especially offensively, following the departure of veteran quarterback Jalon Daniels who seems like he had been quarterback at Kansas since Phog Allen took over both the football and basketball programs there in 1920. Lance Leipold is a really good coach so I don’t expect the Jayhawks to become the annual laughing stock of Power 4 college football like they were throughout the 2010’s but this year is definitely a rebuilding season in Lawrence, as they break-in a new quarterback while also replacing most all of their starting offensive and defensive linemen.

———————————————————————————————————–

15	Iowa State (3-9, 1-8)

Last Year’s Record: 8-4 (My 2025 prediction: 8-4)- the Cyclones were one of the four teams from this league that I correctly picked their final record in the preseason

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. West Virginia (October 3)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Oklahoma State (October 31)

Bottom Line: The only school that could possibly have experienced a more devastating coaching departure this offseason than Utah would be Iowa State following Matt Campbell’s exodus for Happy Valley. Campbell concluded his 10 year stint in Ames as the winningest coach in school history, earning Big 12 Coach of the Year three times with the Cyclones. He then proceeded to take 24 players from last year’s Iowa State squad with him to starting building a new roster at Penn State. In his place, comes Washington State’s Jimmy Rogers who has only coached one season at the FBS level. The bottom line is that this is a really hard place to win, and I don’t see Rogers having much success there this season with 22 new starters, none of which have started at the Power 4 level before.

———————————————————————————————————–