For the 17th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. For better or worse, this may very well be the final season of this article because conference championship games look like they will be entirely abolished with the advent of the 24 team playoff system next season. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Also, these predictions have been incredibly accurate over the years, as my initial analysis article last year correctly predicted each of the title game participants in all four Power 4 leagues!

Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  You will also see that I have added an additional component to this article this year as under each conference’s analysis, I have included a list of games for this upcoming week that will have the greatest effect on who plays in each league’s title game.  This list is updated through all games played on Tuesday November 10, 2026.

ACC-  Miami-FL/SMU (The Hurricanes are all but guaranteed one of the spots in this year’s ACC Championship Game, but the race for the second spot in Charlotte should be an interesting one.  Right now, my Wake Forest Demon Deacons have the upper hand in that race with their 5-1 mark in league play.  However, this Saturday they have to travel to Dallas to play the SMU Mustangs who sit just a game back of them in the conference standings.  Should the Mustangs win that one, which I am predicting they will, then there could be a four way tie for the # 2 spot in title game, as Clemson and Louisville also both have two losses in league play and are favored to win this weekend as well.  In addition, Duke is currently in the mix at 4-2 in the ACC, but they have to play at Miami this weekend, so their quest to defend their ACC Championship will almost assuredly end there.  SMU just has Stanford left on their league schedule after that so a 7-2 league finish for them seems assured if they can get past Wake.  Wake will also be favored in its remaining conference games which are at Georgia Tech and versus Duke.  Louisville and Clemson are both close to coin flips to win out in league play, but I am going to call for them each pick up a loss along the way with the Cards losing this weekend in Chapel Hill and Clemson dropping a game at Duke on November 20th.  This will leave SMU and Wake as the only two loss teams in league play which will give the Mustangs the second spot in Charlotte via a head-to-head tiebreaker. There are a couple of other additional notes about this league race that are worth mentioning.  First and foremost, in light of Miami, the league’s best team, not making it to the ACC Championship Game last season due to the league’s tiebreaker system, the ACC has changed how it handles tiebreakers that can’t be decided on a head-to-head basis.  They are using a secret poll called the SportSource Analytics Team Success Ranking which isn’t published online anywhere due to proprietary restrictions.  It apparently evaluates a team’s record and strength of schedule like a normal computer ranking would, but it also factors in various offensive, defensive, and special teams statistics.  This poll would come in to play in any situation involving a three or more team tie between Wake Forest, SMU, Clemson, and/or Louisville because not all of those squads played one another.  And per online estimates of these rankings, Wake Forest would be predicted to finish the highest in these rankings in most all of these tiebreaker scenarios.  The other interesting aspect of this league race is that for this year only, not all teams in the ACC will play a different number of conference games.  That is because when the league expanded to a nine game conference schedule in the offseason some ACC schools, Clemson, North Carolina, Boston College, Florida State, and Georgia Tech were apparently unable to get out of their prior contractual obligations with some of their non-conference foes and only were able to schedule eight league games this season.  The ACC is also not penalizing the schools who can only play eight games  though as they have said that teams with 7-2 records will be considered tied with teams who are 6-2.  This essentially gives Clemson an extra free win in conference play for a game they didn’t play against an opponent who didn’t exist.  If Wake finishes 7-2 and Clemson ends up getting to Charlotte over us with a 6-2 mark, I am going to lose my mind!)

Week 11 Games That Will Substantially Impact the ACC Title Game Race:

• Duke at Miami-FL (12:00, ABC)
• Wake Forest at SMU (12:00, ESPN)
• Georgia Tech at Clemson (12:30, CW)
• Louisville at North Carolina (7:00, ESPN 2)

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Big 12–  Utah/Texas Tech (The Utes have a difficult remaining schedule, but given the fact they have a two game lead over the rest of the conference, they can afford to slip up at some point down the stretch and still make it to Jerry’s World.  Meanwhile, Texas Tech is currently alone in second place in the conference standings at 5-1, but they are underdogs this week in Stillwater and will also have a tough game next week at Baylor.  I am predicting they lose one of those two games and finish the Big 12 regular season at 7-2.  The question then becomes who else finishes Big 12 play with two losses, as currently five different teams sit at 4-2 in league play.  BYU has the easiest remaining schedule of that group as they should be able to beat Baylor and Cincinnati at home and survive a trip to Lawrence.  Houston also has a manageable path to 7-2, but I am going to call them to get upset in Morgantown on November 21st as West Virginia is tough to beat late in the season at home.  Arizona has a huge game against Utah on Saturday, which I am predicting they win. I think the Wildcats will then knock off a struggling K-State squad and a banged up Arizona State team and also end up at 7-2.  Baylor has the toughest remaining schedule in this group with BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston still on the slate, so they definitely aren’t winning out.  Oklahoma State has to play Texas Tech this weekend, but if they can get by the Red Raiders, then they can definitely knock off Arizona State and Kansas.  A lot of variables are involved here obviously, but I am going to predict Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, BYU, and Arizona all finish 7-2 in Big 12 play.  In this situation, the head-to-head tiebreaker would not apply as each of these four teams did not play one another.  We next look to see if all of these schools had common opponents, and if so, what each of their records are against them.  Unfortunately, this tiebreaker also doesn’t settle anything because the only common opponent for these four squads is Arizona State and all of these teams will have beaten the Sun Devils in this scenario.  The next tiebreaker will the decisive one as the conference winning percentage of each them’s winning percentage will be compared to one another.  We won’t know these numbers until the end of the season, but currently, the conference winning percentage of Oklahoma State’s league opponents is .407, Texas Tech’s is .481, BYU’s is .444, and Arizona’s is also .444.  Therefore, Texas Tech would win this four-team tiebreaker and are my current prediction to play in the Big 12 Championship Game opposite of Utah.)

Week 11 Games That Will Substantially Impact the Big 12 Title Game Race:

• Houston at Colorado (Fri- 10:15, ESPN)
• Baylor at BYU (3:30, FOX)- truly a conference title race elimination game
• Utah at Arizona (7:30, FOX)
• Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (9:30, ESPN)

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Big Ten– Indiana/UCLA (This conference title race may be the most shocking nationally at this point, as no one predicted UCLA to be sitting alone atop the standings at 6-0.  I do think the Bruins lose one of their last two games either against Southern Cal or at Michigan, but even at 8-1, UCLA will earn a spot in the conference championship game in Indianapolis.  Alone in second place right now at 5-1 is Indiana who lost a heartbreaker to Ohio State but also narrowly avoided upset losses to Nebraska, Northwestern, Michigan, and Minnesota.  The Hoosiers could definitely lose to Southern Cal this weekend, but given how bad Lincoln Riley has been in big road games at USC, you have to think Indiana finds a way to win there.  Their next game is on the road against Washington, which most people thought would be a difficult spot for the Hoosiers.  However, the Huskies have really struggled as the season progresses, and it is hard to imagine them knocking off IU.  Finally, the Hoosiers should win their rivalry game against Purdue which would give them an 8-1 record and a matchup against UCLA in the Big Ten Title Game.  Two years ago, it would be beyond comprehension that UCLA and Indiana could be playing one another for a Big Ten Championship in football, not basketball, but here we are in 2026 with that potential matchup looming on the horizon.  If Indiana was to slip up at some point in their remaining schedule, then the door would be open for either Oregon, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Southern Cal, or Illinois to join the party, as all six of those squads currently sit at 4-2 in Big Ten play.)

Week 11 Games That Will Substantially Impact the Big Ten Title Game Race:

• Illinois at UCLA (Fri- 9:00, FOX)
• Southern Cal at Indiana (3:30, CBS)

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SEC– Georgia/Tennessee (The first conference to announce that they are terminating their conference championship game after this season was ironically the conference that created the conference championship game back in 1992.  The last SEC Championship game will be played on December 5th in Atlanta, and right now, the nearby Georgia Bulldogs look poised to make their sixth straight appearance in that game.  The Dawgs stand alone atop the conference standings at 6-1 and will be substantially favored to beat Missouri and South Carolina in their last two SEC contests.  Next week’s trip to the Palmetto State could be tricky for this squad, but I think Georgia wins both of those games and ends league play at 8-1.   Meanwhile, four teams appear to be jockeying out for the second spot in Atlanta, as Alabama, Kentucky, Texas, and Tennessee are deadlocked in a virtual second place tie with two conference losses.  The Cats have one of the toughest remaining schedules of this group as they play against Florida on Saturday and then at Missouri the following weekend.  I believe Kentucky loses one of those two and ends up at 6-3 in the SEC. Texas also has a very difficult closing stretch, as they have to travel to Baton Rouge and College Station in the final three weeks of their season.  I also think they lose one of those two games and end up at 6-3 in the league. Meanwhile, Alabama has the easiest road home, as they play at Vandy on Saturday and at home against Auburn in the season finale.  I believe the Tide win both of those games and finish conference play at 7-2.  The wildcard is Tennessee who has to travel to College Station this weekend and then turnaround and host LSU the following Saturday.  Both contests will be tough, but I think the Vols find a way to win both and then knock off Vandy in the season finale to also finish conference play at 7-2.  The tiebreaker between Bama and Tennessee would be easy to break because the Vols won the head-to-heat meeting, so I am therefore calling for Tennessee to meet Georgia for the SEC Championship on December 5th.)

Week 11 Games That Will Substantially Impact the SEC Title Game Race:

• Alabama at Vanderbilt (12:45, SEC Network)
• Tennessee at Texas A & M (3:00, ESPN)
• Missouri at Georgia (3:30, ABC)
• Florida at Kentucky (6:15, ESPN)
• Texas at LSU (7:30, ABC)

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American– North Texas/UTSA (The American has really cannibalized itself this year, as barring a string of upsets the AAC champion will not be in the running for this year’s Group of 6 playoff bid.  The top two teams in this league actually play each other this weekend as North Texas goes to the Alamodome to meet UTSA.  I am predicting the Roadrunners to win that one at home, despite being a slight underdog which that will create a three-way time for first place between these two squads and Memphis, assuming the Tigers can get by South Florida on Thursday night.  Each of these teams will then have two remaining conference games after that.  UTSA has to travel to UAB and then play Tulsa at home and even though neither game will be easy, I am going to call for the Roadrunners to win out and finish the conference season at 7-1.  North Texas has to travel to New Orleans to play Tulane after their trip to San Antonio, and while that would normally be a tricky game, the Green Wave are really struggling right now.  As a result, I am going to call for North Texas to also win their final two games and finish league play at 7-1.  Meanwhile, I believe Memphis will be the victim of a week 12 upset at Navy, as the Midshipmen have had their number the past few years.  As a result, I am calling for UTSA and North Texas to play in the conference championship game in a rematch of their game this weekend.  And in this scenario, UTSA will once again be hosting North Texas on December 5th.  If two of these three teams were to falter down the stretch, then it would open the door for the current quartet of teams with two conference losses which includes Army, UAB, Florida Atlantic, and East Carolina.)

Week 11 Games That Will Substantially Impact the American Title Game Race:

• Memphis at South Florida (Thurs- 8:00, ESPN)
• North Texas at UTSA (Thurs- 9:00, ESPN U)

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Conference USA– Liberty/Jacksonville State (This appears to be the most clear-cut conference title game race as the Flames and Gamecocks are tied atop the conference standings at 5-0 with a two game lead over the rest of the league.  These two squads don’t play one another in the league regular season either so both teams will be heavily favored to finish league play at 8-0 and set up a huge battle of league unbeatens in the Conference USA championship game.  That game would then be hosted by Liberty based on their substantial lead over Jacksonville State in a composite ranking of the various computer metrics the league uses to break ties. If one of these teams was to somehow lose two of their final three games, then Middle Tennessee could get back in the mix with their current 3-2 conference mark.  However, if both Liberty and Jacksonville State win this weekend then each of them will already clinch bids to the conference title game.)

Week 11 Games That Will Substantially Impact the Conference USA Title Game Race:

• Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky (3:30, ESPN+)
• Middle Tennessee at Liberty (3:30, CBS Sports)

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MAC-  Toledo/Western Michigan (I waited until after the conclusion of Tuesday night’s games to publish this article because I wanted it to take into account the Miami vs. Ohio game which had a significant impact on who plays in this year’s MAC Championship Game.  Miami-OH kept its faint hopes of playings in its fourth straight league title game alive with a come from behind win, and Ohio simultaneously picked up its first conference loss.  Now, the Bobcats join the Rockets of Toledo, the Bulls of Buffalo, and the Broncos of Western Michigan in a virtual four-way tie for first place with each team having one conference loss.  Believe it or not, Buffalo has the easiest schedule remaining of this group, as their last three league games are all against teams with losing conference records in Ball State, Central Michigan, and Akron.  I am thus predicting the Bulls to win out and finish conference play at 7-1.  Western Michigan also has a manageable concluding stretch as they host both Eastern Michigan and Miami-OH in the final two weeks of the season.  The game against the Redhawks could be tricky, but I think the Broncos win them both to also finish MAC play at 7-1.  Meanwhile, Toledo and Ohio essentially play a conference title elimination game in their season finale with the winner likely finishing the season at 7-1 and in a tie for first place in the league and the loser dropping to 6-2 and out of conference title game contention.  Ultimately, I am calling for the Rockets to win that one since they are playing much better football right now than the Bobcats.  That will leave Toledo, Western Michigan, and Buffalo in a three-way tie for the regular league championship.  The title game participants would thus be decided with a tiebreaker and because all three teams finished 1-1 against one another, then head-to-head results won’t get us anywhere.  We then look at record against common opponents and that won’t help us either because each team’s only conference loss was against one another.  The league then will fall back on the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics to break this tie and determine which two teams make it to Detroit.   Like the ACC’s computer tiebreaker, this is a private ranking system, so no one will truly know who would advance in this tiebreaker until the MAC announces it.  However, the tangible computer metrics that are most similar to this ranking system all have Western Michigan and Toledo ranked higher than Buffalo.  As a result, I am calling for the Broncos and Rockets to meet in what may very well be the final MAC Championship Game ever played.  It is also worth noting that Miami-OH remains in contention just a game back with two conference losses, but the Redhawks will need to win out and get help in order to find their way back to Detroit on December 5th.)

Week 11 Games That Will Substantially Impact the MAC Title Game Race:

• Buffalo at Ball State (Wed- 7:30, ESPN2)
• UMass at Toledo (Wed- 7:30, CBS Sports)

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Mountain West– New Mexico/North Dakota State (Despite having most of its best teams plundered by the Pac-12 in the offseason, the Mountain West Conference still has a chance to send its conference champion to the College Football Playoff in 2026.  New Mexico is a legitimate contender for the Group of 6 playoff bid with an 8-1 overall record in which their only blemish is a close, early season loss to Oklahoma.  In conference play, the Lobos are 5-0, and despite a challenging closing stretch that includes UNLV this weekend and at Wyoming next Saturday, the Lobos will be favored to end the league regular season with a perfect 8-0 conference record.  In fact, if Boise were to slip up at some point down the stretch of the season and New Mexico were to win out, I am fairly certain the Lobos would be this year’s CFP Group of Six team.  Ad while a loss down the stretch of the season would likely cost the Lobos a shot at a playoff bid, it would not spoil their conference title hopes, as they are virtually a lock to make it to the league title game at this point in time.

Wyoming is the current frontrunner to earn the second spot in the Mountain West title game, as they stand alone in second place with a 5-1 conference mark.  They do have to play the aforementioned New Mexico Lobos on November 20th, so I am ultimately calling for them to lose that one and finish 6-2 in league play.  That will then open the door for the three current two-loss teams who are also still in the mix for the league title: North Dakota State, Air Force, and UNLV.  Obviously, each of these teams would need to win out to have a realistic shot at making it to the conference championship, and the Bison of NDSU have the easiest path to that mark as they just have two more league games left, both against teams with .500 or below conference records.  I am thus going to predict North Dakota State to beat both Hawaii and San Jose State and also finish league play at 6-2.   Meanwhile, both UNLV and Air Force have to play at New Mexico during this final stretch of the season, so I am calling for both of them to lose to the Lobos and finish at 5-3 in the MWC.  This will leave with us a tie for second place between North Dakota State and Wyoming which will be broken in favor of the Bison by virtue of their dominant head-to-head victory over the Cowboys earlier this season.  I am therefore calling for the Bison to meet the Lobos in Albuquerque for the 2026 Mountain West Championship, in a rematch of a very close October 24th matchup ultimately won by New Mexico.)

Week 11 Games That Will Substantially Impact the Mountain West Title Game Race:

• San Jose State at Air Force (7:00, CBS Sports)
• UNLV at New Mexico (7:30, CW)
• Wyoming at UTEP (10:00, FS1)
• North Dakota State at Hawaii (11:00, CW)

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Pac-12– Boise State/Texas State (The Broncos of Boise are the clear favorite to win this year’s Group of Six playoff spot and also a virtual lock to make it to this year’s Pac-12 title game as they stand atop the league standings with a 5-0 conference mark, which two games clear of the rest of the conference with just two more games to play.  The real question here is who will get a chance to play CFP spoiler and try to upset Boise on the smurf turf in the league title game.  Interestingly enough, there are only seven conference games counted towards the Pac-12 standings, as each team’s week 13 matchup is a non-conference flex game in which each team’s opponent can be adjusted for the purpose of optimizing the league’s postseason outlook.  This means that after week 12 we will know which two teams will be playing for the league championship on Friday December 4th.

Right now, there are four two-loss teams who are really in the running for this second conference title spot: Texas State, Oregon State, San Diego State, and Utah State.  Two of those squads, Oregon State and San Diego State, match up with Boise in the next couple of weeks, so I am predicting both of those squads lose there and finish league play with at least three conference losses.  Meanwhile, Utah State has two challenging road games left against SDSU and Oregon State and I think they drop at least one of those as well.  That just leaves Texas State who should be able to take care of business against Fresno State and Washington State down the stretch of the season to earn the second spot in the Mountain West title game and set up a rematch of one of the best regular season games in the country this year when the Broncos of Boise squeaked by the Bobcats 46-45 in a late night Halloween thriller.  If Fresno State were to happen to upset Texas State this weekend, then it could create a wild four or five team tie for the second spot in the league championship between a slew of 4-3 squads.)

Week 11 Games That Will Substantially Impact the Pac-12 Title Game Race:

• Fresno State at Texas State (4:00, CW)
• Oregon State at Boise State (6:00, USA Network)
• Utah State at San Diego State (9:30, USA Network)

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Sun Belt East– James Madison (It will be interesting to see if the Sun Belt either keeps its divisional format and/or conference championship game next year, as it doesn’t make sense to have two different divisions in your league without a conference title game that pits the two division champs against one another.  As far as this year goes, this division race will come down to a battle between Georgia Southern and James Madison.  The Eagles of Georgia Southern are technically in first place in this division because they only have one conference loss.  However, they have also played two less conference games than Madison, and they also lost the head-to-head matchup against the Dukes earlier this season.  Moreover, Georgia Southern has a much trickier end of season schedule as they have to play at Georgia State and Troy in the next two weeks and then host the hottest team in the league in Louisiana Tech to end their season.  As a result, I think the Eagles will lose one of those final three games and James Madison will knock off Coastal Carolina in its season finale to clinch the Sun Belt East title.)

Week 11 Games That Will Substantially Impact the Sun Belt East Championship Race:

• Georgia Southern at Georgia State (3:30, ESPN+)

Sun Belt West– Louisiana Tech (The Bulldogs have absolutely dominated this division so far this year as they have raced out to a 5-0 start in league play with a two game lead over the rest of the Sun Belt West.  In fact, LA Tech can go ahead and clinch this division title on Saturday with a win over Southern Miss in a game they are favored to win by 17.5 points.  Louisiana is still in contention here, but they need to win out and have LA Tech lose out to find a way into the conference title game)

Week 11 Games That Will Substantially Impact the Sun Belt West Championship Race:

• Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (5:00, ESPN+)

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In addition to my analysis above of every conference/division title race, I always like to rank each conference or division title race based on the intrigue each provides and the importance each holds in the overall college football landscape.  Here are my current rankings of all 11 of the division/conference championship races that we just discussed in detail:

1. ACC (between Wake Forest, Louisville, Clemson, Duke, Miami-FL, and SMU)
2. Big 12 (between Utah, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston, Arizona, Baylor, and Oklahoma State)
3. SEC (between Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas, and Tennessee)
4. Big Ten (between Indiana, UCLA, Oregon, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Southern Cal, and Illinois)
5. Pac-12 (between Boise State, Texas State, Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah State)
6. Mountain West (between New Mexico, Wyoming, North Dakota State, Air Force, and UNLV)
7. American (between North Texas, Memphis, UTSA, Army, UAB, Florida Atlantic, and East Carolina)
8. MAC (between Ohio, Western Michigan, Buffalo, Toledo, and Miami-OH)
9. Sun Belt East (between James Madison and Georgia Southern)
10. Conference USA (between Liberty, Jacksonville State, and Middle Tennessee)
11. Sun Belt West (between Louisiana Tech and Louisiana)