Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season. This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 20th annual college football preview guide which will contain 20 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record. These records include conference title games but exclude bowl games, which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog. The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility this season and the one marked in italics is my predicted conference champion.. Without further ado, here are my predictions for the AAC in 2026, which is still the strongest Group of Six league, despite a legitimate challenge from the Pac-12 this season.

1	Navy (9-4, 8-0)– regular season champion/conference runner-up

Last Year’s Record: 11-2 (My 2025 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver (like I said in my Air Force preview, this should be the weakest position on every triple option team!)

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at UTSA (October 17)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Air Force (October 3)

Bottom Line: Some experts are calling for the Midshipmen to crash the College Football Playoff this season, and let me be the first to say that I would absolutely love to see it! In today’s world of college football defined by transfers, NIL, greed, and lack of loyalty, it would be quite a statement of Navy earned a spot in the CFP with a roster that features zero transfers, no NIL payments, and a roster that has played together for multiple seasons and will serve our country together after graduation. The Midshipmen are coming off an impressive 11 win season in 2025, bring back a slew of returning starters along both lines of scrimmage, and have a very manageable 2026 conference slate in which they avoid Tulane and get Memphis at home. At the same time, the Middies lose their stud quarterback in Blake Horvath and also have to replace their top four rushers from 2025. Navy also won a lot of close cames in 2025 (5-0 in one score games ) which could go the other way this year. All in all, I am calling for the Midshipmen to run the table in their AAC conference games, but then lose their Commander-in-Chief games this season (both were close wins last year) and also lose in the American Conference Title Game.

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1	South Florida (11-2, 6-2)– conference champion

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2025 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Tulane (November 27)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Army (September 12)

Bottom Line: As good as Alex Golesh was at USF, he never could quite get this team over the hump and into a conference championship game. In fact, the Bulls have surprisingly never won a conference title in the history of their program and have only played in one conference championship game (2016). I am calling for all that to change in Brian Hartline’s first season in Tampa. First of all, I love the Hartline hire, as I think he is truly a rising star in the coaching ranks. He also brought in a ton of talent through the portal (# 1 ranked transfer class in the AAC) that should have an immediate impact on this program. In a year where Tulane and Memphis appear to be down a bit and the league seems as wide open as ever, let’s go with the Bulls to breakthrough with a surprise AAC title in 2026.

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3	Tulsa (9-3, 6-2)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2025 prediction: 0-12)

Positional Strength: Defensive Backfield

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Oklahoma State (September 5)- watch out for this week 1 shocker!

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Tulane (November 7)

Bottom Line: Some of my readers may get on me for being kind of chalky in my preseason picks for 2026, but this one is really a surprise. The Golden Hurricane have been atrocious the past few seasons (they have had no more than four wins or less the past three years), but I think they will turn a major corner here in 2026. One of the main reasons is that they brought in an incredible transfer portal class thanks to their creative use of their “Portal House” which is a luxury off campus used to house incoming transfer candidates that features a pool, mini golf course, and several other amenities. When you are a small market team in this NIL era, you have to get creative in your recruiting methods, and this is certainly an innovative concept that seems to have worked in Tulsa. Expect a surprise season for the Golden Hurricane, as they will be fielding their most talented team since their AAC runner-up campaign in 2020.

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4	UTSA (7-5, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 7-6 (My 2025 prediction: 4-8)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Tulane (October 24)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Florida Atlantic (November 5)

Bottom Line: In a league strife with coaching turnover, especially amongst the league’s top teams, Jeff Traylor has been a consistent winner at UTSA for seven seasons now with seemingly no plans to leave the Alamo. This program had only played in one bowl game prior to Traylor’s arrival (2016 New Mexico Bowl), and with him, they have played in six straight postseason contests, winning the last three. This team has taken a slight step back after winning back-to-back conference titles in 2021 and 2022, but after picking the Roadrunners to seriously struggle last season, I am not going to make that mistake again, as I have pegged UTSA to play in a seventh straight bowl game in 2026.

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5	Tulane (7-5, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 11-3 (My 2025 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Memphis (October 16)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Charlotte (October 30)- here’s a Halloween Eve shocker in the Queen City!

Bottom Line: After three straight 9+ win seasons, I called for the Green Wave to take a step back in 2025, and boy was I wrong. Not only did Tulane win the AAC championship last fall, but they also earned the league’s first-ever bid into the 12 team College Football Playoff. Well as George W. Bush once said “fool me once, shame on.. shame on you. Fool me.. you can’t get fooled again.” I am therefore going to pick the Green Wave to back slide a few games once again this season, due to a coaching transition that has led to a major overhaul of the roster. Tulane is also due for some regression towards the mean in terms of their turnover margin (+8 last season) and record in close games (5-0 in one score games in 2025). Don’t expect a major fall off for the Green Wave, as this program still has a lot of talent, but I don’t believe the Wave will be in contention to defend their conference title in 2026.

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6	Memphis (7-5, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 8-5 (My 2025 prediction: 12-1)- as you may have noticed, several of my worst season-long predictions in 2025 came from this league

Positional Strength: Defensive Backfield

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Army (October 31)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at USF (November 12)

Bottom Line: Memphis is one of those teams I am typically extremely high on in the preseason, but this year I am actually going to pick them to finish in the middle of the pack in the American. Like Tulane discussed above, the Tigers are going through a coaching change that has caused a massive upheaval of the roster. In fact, only one of Memphis’ twenty-two starters returns from last season. and they lost their top 16 tacklers from 2025! The Tigers did bring in some talented pieces from the portal so they won’t be abysmal or anything, but I expect them to pick up at least a hand full of losses this season, especially with non-conference road games against the preseason favorites from the Mountain West and Pac-12 and a conference slate that includes road games against several of the league’s top teams (at USF, at Navy, at Tulane).

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7	East Carolina (7-5, 4-4)

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2025 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Army (November 21)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Charlotte (November 14)- the 49ers seem to have the Pirates number, winning two of the last three in the series with both wins coming as an underdog

Bottom Line: Head Coach Blake Harrell (pictured above), who is actually married to one of my high school classmates, has done a stellar job of bringing the Pirates back to a level of respectability after a lengthy stretch of mediocrity under former head coaches Scottie Montgomery and Mike Houston. In fact, last year’s nine win campaign was the most successful season for this program since 2013. This year, I do expect the Pirates to take a slight step back as they lose their prolific quarterback in Kaitlin Houser, as well as their top two rushers, top two receivers, and six of their top eight tacklers from 2025.

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8	Army (7-5, 4-4)

Last Year’s Record: 7-6 (My 2025 prediction: 10-3)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. South Florida (September 12)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Louisiana Tech (October 3)

Bottom Line: Army has had finished with six of seven wins in three of the past four seasons, so 7-5 seems like a fairly logical prediction for the Black Knights in 2026. Jeff Monken’s squad does return its starting quarterback in Cale Hellums, who was also the team’s leading rush, and has a very manageable schedule this season with zero Power 4 games on their schedule. Nevertheless, they also lose their top seven tacklers from 2026, which is especially troublesome for a program that can’t use the portal to quickly replenish their talent pool. All in all, expect a good, but not great season, this year at West Point.

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9	Florida Atlantic (6-6, 3-5)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2025 prediction: 3-9)- finally an AAC team that I had a fairly accurate preseason prediction for!

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UTSA (November 5)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Tulsa (November 14)

Bottom Line: After five straight losing seasons, I am calling for FAU to turn the corner in 2026 and return to a bowl game. In fact, FAU ranked # 2 in my comprehensive computer ranking for the entire AAC due largely to the amount of experience they return on defense and their projected progression towards the mean in terms of turnover margin (ranked 134th in the country last year at -21). I am not going to call for the Owls to actually finish anywhere close second in the AAC, as their schedule is too difficult for that, but I do think second year coach Zach Kittley and senior quarterback Cade Veltkamp will take this team back to the postseason this fall.

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9	Temple (5-7, 3-5)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2025 prediction: 4-8)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UAB (November 14)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Toledo (September 19)

Bottom Line: For the first time this decade, Temple showed signs of life on the football field last year as new coach K.C. Keeler took this squad to the brink of a bowl game before a four game losing streak in November ended their postseason hopes. This year, I am calling for the Owls to again flirt with bowl eligibility thanks to an experienced offensive line, a solid kicking game, and incoming freshman recruiting class which that was one of the best in the league. However, Temple’s schedule may once again keep them out of the postseason, as they have to play road games against four of the league’s top five teams from 2025 (at USF, at Navy, at ECU, and at Memphis), while also having brutal non-conference matchups against Penn State and at Toledo.

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9	North Texas (4-8, 3-5)

Last Year’s Record: 12-2 (My 2025 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UAB (November 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Florida Atlantic (October 29)

Bottom Line: The Mean Green were a great story last year, as they found themselves a game away from a conference title and a CFP berth in 2025. Nevertheless, that entire team is basically gone, as head coach Eric Morris left to go to to Oklahoma State and took with him more players from this program than the Grinch, another “mean green” entity, took presents from Whoville on Christmas Eve. New coach Neal Brown, has a great track record at the Group of Six level, so I think he can eventually win at this school, but this will be rough transition season for a team that has zero returning starters and an entirely new coaching staff.

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12	UAB (4-8, 2-6)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2025 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. East Carolina (October 15)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Temple (November 14)

Bottom Line: It is safe to say that the Trent Dilfer experiment was a massive failure in Birmingham, as the former NFL quarterback failed to win more than four games in any of his 2.5 seasons with the Blazers. His performance there were especially atrocious when considering that this program played in six straight bowl games prior to his arrival. Now, the Blazers will be starting over with new coach Alex Mortenson, who had moderate success last year as the team’s interim coach for the final six games of the season. The Blazers may be an improved football team in 2026 with a talented quarterback, deep running back room, and an elite all-conference kicker. However, with zero returning starters on defense, this team lacks the overall continuity and talent to contend for a bowl bid in 2026.

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13	Charlotte (3-9, 2-6)

Last Year’s Record: 1-11 (My 2025 prediction: 4-8)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Tulane (October 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UAB (November 7)

Bottom Line: It is really surprising how bad this program has been this decade given the program’s plentiful resources and desirable geographic location. Everyone thought that the school’s 2019 bowl bid was the start of a rise to prominence for the 49ers, but since then, this team has failed to sniff the postseason. Last year’s campaign was arguably the worst in school history as they failed to win a single game against an FBS foe in 2025. Nevertheless, Tim Albin is a good coach that should help this squad take a step forward in 2026. I do think they will win a few conference games this fall, including a couple of potential upsets, but the 49ers are still a ways away from making it back to postseason play.

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14	Rice (2-10, 0-8)

Last Year’s Record: 5-8 (My 2025 prediction: 4-8)- the one AAC prediction I got exactly right in 2025!

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Western Michigan (September 19)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at North Texas (November 7)

Bottom Line: It is safe to say that the Owls just don’t have a lot going for it on the football field currently. In today’s NIL era, it is quite difficult for a Group of Six private school with an undergraduate population of under 5,000 to compete at the FBS level, and Rice has felt that in their run of 11 consecutive losing seasons. Scott Albel did manage to use the program’s impressive APR score to sneak into a bowl game at 5-7 last year, but their 31 point loss in that contest to Texas State showed just how far behind the Owls are in comparison to their in-state rivals. This year, Rice has an almost entirely new roster that they will largely be filling with a transfer portal class that ranked 12th in a 14 team league. Rice also has a brutal schedule featuring non-conference games at Notre Dame and Fresno and a conference slate in which they don’t get to play any of the league’s fellow bottom-dwellers (no games against either UAB or Charlotte). That is not exactly a recipe for success, as I am calling for Rice to finish at the very bottom of the AAC in 2026.

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