The most comprehensive analysis of college football bowl eligibility is back! For the 17th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not. Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team. Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid, not necessarily a team’s off of actually being invited to a bowl game. That is because some years there are more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids and several bowl eligible teams don’t get to go bowling. Other years, there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill every bowl game, so 5-7 teams are invited to bowl games.
All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there are 68 teams on the list with 27 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 41 predicted to fall short. As of now, I’m projecting there to be 80 bowl eligible teams for 2026 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry). Keep in mind that there are a total of 84 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am calling for 4 “backup teams” who possess a 5-7 record to make it to a bowl game this season and 0 teams with 6-6 records or better to be left out of bowl season. This list is updated through all games played on Wednesday November 11th.
Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (27):
Auburn: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Mississippi State, vs. Samford, at Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99%
Tulsa: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida Atlantic, vs. Charlotte, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 87%
Texas State: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Fresno State, vs. Washington State, at Colorado State (last opponent subject to change per Pac-12 flex scheduling); Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 85%
Florida: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Kentucky, vs. Vanderbilt, at Florida State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 84%
App State: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Marshall, vs. UL-Monroe, at South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 83%
Penn State: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Minnesota, vs. Rutgers, at Maryland; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 82%
Oregon State: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Boise State, vs. Utah State, at Washington State (last opponent subject to change per Pac-12 flex scheduling); Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 80%
UNLV: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at New Mexico, at San Jose State, vs. Nevada; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 79%
Fresno State: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Texas State, vs. Colorado State, vs. San Diego State (last opponent subject to change per Pac-12 flex scheduling); Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 78%
East Carolina: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Charlotte, at Army, vs. Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 76%
UMass: Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Akron, at Bowling Green; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 74%
Marshall: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. App. State, vs. Georgia State, at UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 73%
UCF: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona State, vs. Iowa State, at Colorado; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72%
Middle Tennessee State: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Liberty, at Sam Houston, vs. New Mexico State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 71%
Nebraska: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers, vs. Ohio State, at Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70%
Cincinnati: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa State, vs. Colorado, at BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 69%
North Carolina: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Louisville, at Virginia, vs. NC State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67%
Georgia Southern: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia State, at Troy, vs. Louisiana Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66%
Oklahoma: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ole Miss, vs. Texas A & M, at Missouri; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65%
South Alabama: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Troy, at Southern Miss, vs. App. State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63%
West Virginia: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas, vs. Houston, at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61%
Army: Record: 5-4 (must get to 6 wins in first 11 games); Remaining Schedule: vs. East Carolina, at Rice; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59%
Washington: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Michigan State, vs. Indiana, at Oregon; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56%
Georgia State: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at Marshall, vs. Louisiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55%
Minnesota: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Penn State vs. Northwestern, at Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%
FIU: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Delaware, at Kennesaw State, vs. Sam Houston; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53%
Iowa State: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Cincinnati, at UCF, vs. Kansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52%
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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (41):
Arizona State: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at UCF, vs. Oklahoma State, at Arizona; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%
Mississippi State: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, vs. Tennessee Tech, at Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48%
Central Michigan: Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Buffalo, at Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%
Arkansas State: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Coastal Carolina, at Louisiana Tech, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46%
UAB: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Temple, vs. UTSA, at North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45%
Troy: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. Georgia Southern, at Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44%
Virginia: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. California, vs. North Carolina, at Virginia Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43%
UConn: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. James Madison, vs. Old Dominion, at Wyoming; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42%
Michigan: Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, vs. UCLA, at Ohio State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41%
Delaware: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule:vs. FIU, at New Mexico State, vs. Jacksonville State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40%
Florida State: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Pittsburgh, vs. NC State, vs. Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39%
Kennesaw State: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Sam Houston, vs. FIU, at Western Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38%
San Diego State: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule:, vs. Utah State, at Boise State, at Fresno State (last opponent subject to change per Pac-12 flex scheduling); Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37%
NC State: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs.Syracuse, at Florida State, at North Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36%
Syracuse: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at NC State at Boston College, vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35%
Tulane: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Rice, vs. North Texas, at South Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34%
New Mexico State: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Missouri State, vs. Delaware, at Middle Tennessee ;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33%
Hawaii: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Dakota State, at Nevada, vs. Sacramento State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32%
TCU: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas State, vs. Utah, at Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31%
Texas A & M: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tennessee, at Oklahoma, vs. Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30%
Stanford: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia Tech, at California, vs. SMU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29%
Utah State: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at San Diego State, at Oregon State, vs. Boise State (last opponent subject to change per Pac-12 flex scheduling); Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 27%
Nevada: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Northern Illinois, vs. Hawaii, at UNLV; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25%
Kansas State: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at TCU, vs. Arizona, at Iowa State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21%
San Jose State: Record: 5-5 (must win 7 games); Remaining Schedule: at Air Force, vs. UNLV, vs. North Dakota State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 19%
Eastern Michigan: Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Western Michigan, vs. Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18%
California: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia, vs. Stanford, vs. Pittsburgh; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 16%
Coastal Carolina: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arkansas State, at Louisiana, at James Madison; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15%
Western Kentucky: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Jacksonville State, at Liberty, vs. Kennesaw State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 14%
Southern Miss: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Louisiana Tech, vs. South Alabama, at Old Dominion; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 13%
Michigan State: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington, vs.Oregon, at Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12%
Colorado State: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Washington State, at Fresno State vs. Texas State (last opponent subject to change per Pac-12 flex scheduling); Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 11%
Colorado: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Houston, at Cincinnati, vs. UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10%
Missouri State: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico State, at Jacksonville State, vs. Liberty; Odds of Bowl Eligibility:9%
Vanderbilt: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Alabama, at Florida, vs. Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8%
Kansas: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at West Virginia, vs. BYU, at Oklahoma State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7%
Maryland: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, at Southern Cal, vs. Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%
Arkansas: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Carolina, at Texas, vs. LSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5%
Boston College: Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Notre Dame, vs. Syracuse, at Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4%
Purdue: Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa, vs. Wisconsin, at Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%
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Already Bowl Eligible (53): (1) Clemson, (2) Duke, (3) Louisville, (4) Miami-FL, (5) SMU, (6) Virginia Tech, (7) Wake Forest, (8) Florida Atlantic, (9) Memphis, (10) North Texas, (11) South Florida, (12) UTSA, (13) Illinois, (14) Iowa, (15) Northwestern, (16) Ohio State, (17) Oregon, (18) UCLA, (19) Southern Cal, (20) Wisconsin, (21) Arizona, (22) Baylor, (23) BYU, (24) Houston, (25) Oklahoma State, (26) Texas Tech, (27) Utah, (28) Jacksonville State, (29) Liberty, (30) Miami-OH, (31) Ohio, (32) Toledo, (33) Western Michigan, (34) Air Force, (35) New Mexico, (36) North Dakota State, (37) Wyoming, (38) Boise State, (39) Alabama, (40) Georgia, (41) Kentucky, (42) LSU, (43) Missouri, (44) Ole Miss, (45) South Carolina, (46) Tennessee, (47) Texas, (48) James Madison, (49) Louisiana, (50) Louisiana Tech, (52) Notre Dame, (53) Pittsburgh
Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (16): (1) Georgia Tech, (2) Charlotte, (3) Navy, (4) Rice, (5) Temple, (6) Rutgers, (7) Sam Houston, (8) Akron, (9) Bowling Green, (10) Kent State, (11) Sacramento State, (12) Northern Illinois, (13) UTEP, (14) Washington State, (15) UL-Monroe, (16) Old Dominion, (17) Ball State
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Current Stats (138 FBS Teams):
Already Bowl Eligible: 53
Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 27 (80)
Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 17
Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 41 (58)
